Modeling of Urban Expansion of Greater Hyderabad
Metropolitan Region in India – Scenarios for 2030
Objectives
Development of a spatially explicit urbanization model
- based on socio-economic & topographical characteristics.
Model the spread of urbanization in a fast growing city like Hyderabad
Based on current infrastructure Based on existing Land use Based on population distribution Based on economy
Scope
Model is based on AGENT LUC (‘Anthropogenically Engineered Transformations of Land Use and Land Cover’ )
Captures urban process
Simulates the changes in urban land use patterns.
The major outcomes are urban land use and population growth.
Statistical Model
GDP estimates Population Model
Migration Model
Aggregate growth
Spatial Model
Land use and Land Cover model
Physical infrastructure
Resource availability
Soil characteristics
Elevation
Land use changes
Population distribution
Behavioral Model
Intra urbanRural to rural
Rural to urban
Perception about wealthSocial infrastructure
AGENT LUC Model
Macroscopic Statistical model(Economy, population etc)
Spatial Model(Land use, population
Distribution etc)
Behavioral model (Perception of wealth
and well being)
GIS based Land Use Model and Analysis
Factors Driving Urbanization Population
Natural growth Migration
Economy Service sector – pull Rural economy -
push Infrastructure
Attracting force Limiting force
Land use
Perception&&
Policy
Hyderabad
Rapid growth in population
– almost 30% increase from 2001
Capital of Andhra Pradesh
- state was predominantly agri based
IT exports
- Rs 22 crore in 1995 >> Rs 20000 crore now
Scenarios of Simulation
GDP SRES A1 SRES B2
Population Growth Rate
National population Growth rate of India
Scenario 1 Scenario 2
UN Projected growth Rate for Hyderabad Urban
Agglomeration
Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Comparison - 2005Scenario 1
Scenario 4Scenario 3
Scenario 2
High GDP
Moderate Population growth
Moderate Population growth
High GDP Lower GDP
High Population growth
High Population growth
Lower GDP
Comparison - 2030Scenario 1
High GDP
Moderate Population growth
Scenario 2
Lower GDP
Moderate Population growth
High Population growth
High GDP
Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Lower GDP
High Population growth
Validation *Population in Millions Area in Sq KM
Year Population as per Census
CEISIN Estimate for population
Scenario1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Population Area Population Area Population Area Population Area
1995 NA 15.74 15.11 541 15.26 523 15.11 518 15.26 537
2000-01 16.62 NA 15.75 615 16.16 566 15.75 565 16.16 583
2005 NA 17.38 16.39 694 16.84 647 16.39 613 16.84 650
Urban area in 2005 was 714 sq km (source NRSC)
Population Comparison
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20300
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Scenario 1 and 2 Urban population
Scenario 1 Urban Population Scenario 2Urban Population % Urban Scenario 1 % Urban Scenario 2
Year
Po
pu
lati
on
in
th
ou
sa
nd
s
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Urb
an
Population Comparison
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20303000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Scenario 3 and 4 Urban population
Scenario 3 Urban Population Scenario 4 Urban Population % Urban Scenario 3 % Urban Scenario 4
Year
Po
pu
lati
on
in
th
ou
sa
nd
s
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Urb
an
Conclusion
The temporal outcome of this research provides policy makers with scenarios that can be employed in effective planning of infrastructure.
The land use in Urban areas changes with changes in GDP and infrastructure.
Future Work
Simulate the effect of Mass transport corridors like Metro rail on Urban land use and Population Distribution
Sharing short-medium-long term action plan with appropriate government departments
Expanding the above model using Urban modeling to fast growing cities like Hyderabad.