Module 1Introduction to Climate Change Science
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Learning Objectives
1. Explain the basic concepts of climate
change science
2. Identify the anthropogenic drivers
of climate change
4. Analyze different climate change
scenarios and their implications
3. Explain observed and projected trends in the
climate
By the end of the module
participants will be able to:
Module 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science
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OVERVIEWSection 1
Introduction to Climate
Change Science
Section 2
Anthropogenic Drivers of
Climate Change
Section 3
Observed Trends and Impacts of
Climate Change
Section 4
Projected Trends and Impacts of
Climate Change
Section 5
Sources of Scientific
Data
Overview
Module 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science
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Introduction to Climate
Change ScienceSection
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Module 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science
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What Is Climate?
Weather
“What is happening in
the atmosphere at
any given time”
Climate
“Average weather over longer time
frames”
Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science
Source: World Meteorological Organization
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Complexity of the Global Climate System
Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science
Source: IPCC 2007, p96. Further information: WMO Website
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What Is the Greenhouse Effect?
Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science
Source: IPCC 2007. Further info: WMO Website
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NASA Video on the Greenhouse Effect
URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZzCA60WnoMk
Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science
Video: Understand how water vapor, carbon dioxide, and other gases cause the Earth’s greenhouse effect
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Factors Shaping the Climate – “Climate Forcings”
Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science
Source: NOAAA National Climatic Data Center
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Natural Climate Fluctuations – Example of El Niño and La Niña
Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science
Source: NOAA. Further information: WMO Website
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Climate Change and Global Warming
Global WarmingRefers to the overall warming of
the planet, based on average temperature over the entire
surface of the Earth
Climate ChangeRefers to changes in climate
characteristics, including temperature, humidity, rainfall, wind, and severe
weather events over long term periods
Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science
Further information: WMO Website
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Observed Change in Surface Temperature (1901–2012)
Source: Source: IPCC 2013, p4
Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science
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Tools to Predict and Project Changes in the Climate
Climate Prediction• A climate prediction or climate “forecast” is an attempt to produce an estimate of
the actual evolution of the climate in the future.
Emissions Scenario• Emissions scenarios describe future releases to the atmosphere of greenhouse
gases, aerosols, and other pollutants and, along with information on land use and land cover, provide inputs to climate models.Climate Model
• A numerical representation of the climate system based on the physical, chemical and biological properties of its components, their interactions and feedback processes, and accounting for some of its known properties. Climate Projection
• A climate projection is the simulated response of the climate system to a scenario of future emission or concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols, generally derived using climate models.
Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science
Source: IPCC 2013 and IPCC Website. Further info: WMO Website
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Projected Change in Average Surface Temperature
Source: IPCC 2013, p20
Scenario RCP 8.5Scenario RCP 2.6
Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science
Time Period: 1986-2005 to 2081-2100
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Climate Change Has an Impact on:
Ecosystems •Biodiversity, carbon storage, habitats, …
Human systems •Agriculture, fresh water, health, …
Urban systems •Transport, buildings, lifestyle, …
Economic systems •Energy, manufacturing, natural capital industries, …
Social systems •Equity, migration, peace and conflict, …
Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science
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Climate Change Science Allows Us to:
Understand how and why the climate is changing
Assess how humans are influencing the climate
Project how the climate may change in the future
Support policy/decision-making and changes in behaviors
Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science
Source: National Science FoundationPhoto Credit: Niwot Ridge lter site/John W. Marr
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Why is Climate Change Science Important?
Sound weather data and forecasts important for:
Short-term planning Emergency response
Climate models help to forecast long term climate scenarios
Important input for vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning
Fosters climate resilient development and avoids mal-adaption
Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science
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History of Climate Change Science• Argument raised that the temperature of the Earth
can be augmented by the interposition of the atmosphere
1824• Indication that CO2 and H2O can cause changes in
the climate1861• First proposal of the idea of a man-made
greenhouse effect1895• Proof that doubling of atmospheric CO2
concentration resulted in an increase in the mean global temperature of 2°C
1938• Start of interdisciplinary field of carbon cycle
science1950s• The high-accuracy measurements of atmospheric
CO2 concentration1958
• Other greenhouse gases widely recognised1970s
• The first World Climate Conference in Geneva1979• Establishment of Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC)1988
• The first IPCC report1990
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Further information: BBC Website
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Anthropogenic Drivers
of Climate ChangeSection
2
Module 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science
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IPCC Video on the Human Influence on the Climate System
URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6yiTZm0y1YA&feature=youtu.be
Video: The video summarizes the main findings of the 2013 IPCC Report on the physical science basis of climate change.
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Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change
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Overview of Greenhouse Gases Regulated under the Kyoto Protocol
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Greenhouse Gas Global Warming Potential (GWP) (over 100 years)
% of Total Anthropogenic GHG Emissions (2010)
Carbon dioxide (CO2) 1 76%Methane (CH4) 25 16%Nitrous oxide (N2O) 298 6%Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
124-14,800 < 2%
Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) 7,390-12,200 < 2%Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)
22,800 < 2%
Nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) 17,200 < 2%Source: Reproduced from IPCC 2007 and UNEP 2012
Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change
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Important Greenhouse Gases: Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
Most important greenhouse gas (contributes ~64% to total radiative forcing by long-lived GHGs)
Half of CO2 emitted by human activities is being absorbed in the biosphere and in the oceans
Rest remains in the atmosphere for hundreds to thousands of years
Source: WMO 2013
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Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change
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CO2 Concentration in the Atmosphere and Annual Growth Rates
Source: WMO 2013
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Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change
Since 1750 CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has increased by 40%.
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Important Greenhouse Gases: Methane (CH4)
Second most significant greenhouse gas (contributes ~18% to total radiative forcing by long-lived GHGs)
Approximately 40% of methane is emitted into the atmosphere by natural sources
About 60% comes from human activities
Stays in the atmosphere for approximately 12 years
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Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change
Source: IPCC 2007 and WMO 2013
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CH4 Concentration in the Atmosphere and Annual Growth Rates25
Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change
Source: WMO 2013
Since 1750 CH4 concentration in the atmosphere has increased by 150%.
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In Focus: The Carbon Cycle
Source: UNEP
Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change
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Important Greenhouse Gases: Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
The third most significant greenhouse gas (contributes ~6% to total radiative forcing by long-lived GHGs)
Stays in the atmosphere for approximately 114 years
Nitrous oxide is emitted into the atmosphere from both natural (about 60%) and anthropogenic sources (approximately 40%)
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Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change
Source: IPCC 2007 and WMO 2013
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N2O Concentration in the Atmosphere and Annual Growth Rates28
Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change
Source: WMO 2013
Since 1750 N2O concentration in the atmosphere has increased by 20%.
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Important Greenhouse Gases: Fluorinated Gases
Global warming effect up to 23,000 times greater than carbon dioxide
Stay in the atmosphere up to 50,000 years
Three main groups: hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)
Mainly developed as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances
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Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change
Source: IPCC 2007. Further info EPA, EC
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Greenhouse Gases Controlled by the Montreal Protocol Montreal Protocol aimed to
phase out substances that deplete the ozone layer
Substances regulated under the Montreal Protocol are also powerful greenhouse gases
For example, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) contribute ~12% to radiative forcing by long-lived GHGs
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Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change
Source: IPCC 2007 and WMO 2013. Further info: NOAA Website
Source: EPA
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Concentration of SF6 and Halocarbons in the Atmosphere31
Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change
Source: WMO 2013
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It is extremely likely that more than 50% of the warming since 1951 is due to the increase in
greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic
forcings together.
Human Influence on the Climate System
Source: IPCC 2013. Further info: WMO website
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Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change
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Observed Trends and Impacts of Climate
Change
Section 3
Module 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science
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Observed Surface Temperature Anomaly (1850-2012)
Source: IPCC 2013, p4
Section 3: Observed Trends and Impacts of Climate Change
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Globally averaged land and ocean surface temperature
Each of the last three decades
has been successively
warmer at the Earth’s surface
than any preceding decade
since 1850.
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Observed Change in Annual Precipitation Over Land
Source: IPCC 2013, p6
Section 3: Observed Trends and Impacts of Climate Change
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Observed Ocean Warming (1950-2010)
Section 3: Observed Trends and Impacts of Climate Change
Source: IPCC 2013, p8
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More than 60% of the net
energy increase in the climate system is stored in the upper ocean (period 1971-
2010).
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Observed Ocean Acidification
Section 3: Observed Trends and Impacts of Climate Change
Source: IPCC 2013, p10
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Observed Sea Level Rise (1900 to 2010)
Section 3: Observed Trends and Impacts of Climate Change
Source: IPCC 2013, p8
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Over the period 1901 to 2010, global mean
sea level rose by 0.19m.
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Observed Decrease in Arctic Sea Ice Extent (1900-2010)
Section 3: Observed Trends and Impacts of Climate Change
Source: IPCC 2013, p8
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Observed Changes in Physical and Biological Systems
Section 3: Observed Trends and Impacts of Climate Change
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Source: UNEP 2009, p13
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In Focus: Is Climate Change to Blame for Extreme Weather Events?
Source: UNEP 2009, p12. Further info: WMO WebsiteSection 3: Observed Trends and Impacts of
Climate Change
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Year
Num
ber o
f Eve
nts
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Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate
Change
Section 4
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In Focus: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change
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Set of four new scenarios defined by the scientific community for the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report.
Four RCPs include: one mitigation scenario leading to a very low
forcing level (RCP2.6), two stabilization scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP6),
and one scenario with very high greenhouse gas
emissions (RCP8.5). RCPs represent a range of 21st century climate
policies.
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Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to reach 4°C
if no action is taken.
Projected Change in Average Surface Temperature
Sour
ce: I
PCC
2013
, p1
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Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change
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Projected Change in Average Precipitation
Source: IPCC 2013, p20
Scenario RCP 8.5Scenario RCP 2.6
Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change
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Time Period: 1986-2005 to 2081-2100
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Temperature and Precipitation Projections for the 21st Century
URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFqO3_2dYxA
Video: This NASA video shows how temperature and precipitation patterns could change throughout the 21st century.
Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change
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Projected Change in Ocean Surface pH
Source: IPCC 2013, p20
Scenario RCP 8.5Scenario RCP 2.6
Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change
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Time Period: 1986-2005 to 2081-2100
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Projected Sea Level Rise
Source: IPCC 2013, p24
Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change
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Global mean sea level
will continue to rise
during the 21st
century.
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Projected Northern Hemisphere September Sea Ice Extent
Source: IPCC 2013, p20
Scenario RCP 8.5Scenario RCP 2.6
Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change
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Average 2081-2100
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Projected Impacts of Climate Changein Africa
Source: UNEP 2009, p32
Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change
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Projected Impacts of Climate Changein Asia
Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change
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Source: UNEP 2009, p34
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Projected Impacts of Climate Change in Latin America
Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change
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Source: UNEP 2009, p37
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Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Small Islands Sea level rise
exacerbating inundation, storm surge, erosion and other coastal hazards
Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change
Source: UNEP 2006, p185
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Reduced freshwater resources
Invasion by non-native species
Effects on food and income security
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“Carbon Crossroads”
Source: Cambridge University 2013, p 14
Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change
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Global Warming by 2100 and Beyond: A Function of Cumulative CO2 Emissions
Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change
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Limiting climate
change will require
substantial and
sustained reductions
of greenhouse
gas emissions.Source: IPCC 2013, p26
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Sources of Scientific
DataSection
5
Module 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science
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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Leading body for the assessment of
climate change
Established in 1988 by UNEP and
WMO
Assesses relevant scientific,
technical and socio-economic
information
Does not conduct any research itself
Thousands of scientists from all
over the world contribute to its
work
Section 5: Sources of Scientific Data
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Important Reports Published by the IPCCAs
sess
men
t Rep
orts • First
assessment report (FAR)
• Second assessment report (SAR)
• Third assessment report (TAR)
• Fourth assessment report (AR4)
• Fifth assessment report (AR5)
Spec
ial R
epor
ts o
n: • Renewable energy sources
• Extreme events and disasters
• Emission scenarios
• Aviation• Carbon
capture and storage
Met
hodo
logy
Rep
orts • Guidance
for national greenhouse gas inventories
• Guidance for assessing impacts of climate change
• Land use, land-use change and forestry
Tech
nica
l Pap
ers • Climate
change and water
• Implications of proposed CO2 emissions limitations
• Technologies, policies and measures for mitigating climate change
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Section 5: Sources of Scientific Data
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World Meteorological Organization (WMO) – Global Climate Programmes
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Section 5: Sources of Scientific Data
World Climate Programme (WCP) World Climate Research Programme Global Climate Observing System World Climate Services Programme Programme of Research on Climate Change
Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation Atmospheric Research and Environment
Programme (AREP) Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) Advisory Body: Commission for Climatology (CCI)
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In Focus: Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)
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URL: http://www.gfcs-climate.org/content/about-gfcs
Section 5: Sources of Scientific Data
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WMO Global Atmosphere Watch: Measurement Stations Worldwide61
Section 5: Sources of Scientific Data
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WMO Regional Climate Centers and Outlook Forums
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Section 5: Sources of Scientific Data
WMO Regional Climate Centres (RCCs)
WMO Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs)
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National Climate Data
National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS)
Collect and manage national climate data to help with forecasting and predictions
Norfolk Island Meterological Office, Source: Australian Government: Bureau of Meteorology
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Section 5: Sources of Scientific Data
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Annex
Additional Resources
Module 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science
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Module Summary65
Additional Resources
Weather and climate are the results of complex interactions between anthropogenic and natural factors.
Evidence of global climate change include higher average temperatures, changes in precipitation, ocean warming, ocean acidification, sea level rise, decreasing sea ice, and changes in physical and biological systems.
Observed climate change can be linked with the increase of greenhouse gase concentrations in the atmosphere since the industrial revolution.
Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to reach 4°C if no drastic mitigation actions are taken.
Various sources of climate data exist that can support planning for climate change.
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Useful Links
IPCC Website WMO Climate Pages Global Framewor
k For Climate Services (GFCs)
World Climate Programme (WCP)
World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal
NASA Global Climate Change ESA Climate Cha
nge InitiativeNCAR Community Data Portal
Max Planck: The Atmosphere in the Earth System
The Guardian Climate Change Pages
The National Geographic - Global Warming
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Additional Resources
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Recommended Readings
Cambridge University (2013). Climate Change: Action, Trends and Implications for Business
IPCC (2013). Climate Change 2013, The Physcial Science Basis - Summary for Policymakers
UNEP (2009). Climate Change Science Compendium UNEP (2009).
Climate in Peril, A Popular Guide to the Latest IPCC Reports WMO (2013).
The Global Climate 2001–2010, A Decade of Climate Extremes
Additional Resources
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Main References
IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007 - Synthesis Report IPCC (2013). Climate Change 2013, The Physcial
Science Basis - Summary for Policymakers UNEP (2009). Climate in Peril, A Popular G
uide to the Latest IPCC Reports UNEP (2012). The Emissions Gap Report 2012 WMO (2012): Greenhouse Gas Bulletin WMO (2009). A History of Climate Activities WMO Website: Climate
Additional Resources
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