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Monthly Update From Mansukh (For Private Circulation Only) Issue: September 201
. . . . . .I::
1 2 3 4) 5 6 7 8. . . . . .
Market Global Economy Technical Fundamental Market CommodityI:: Auxiliary0 Review Snapshot Update Picks Picks Tutorials Section Section0
Boisterous benchmarks showcased yet another enthusiastic
performance on the last day of the month rallying well over
one and half a percentage points and breaking psychological
levels on the northbound journey, ahead of the two day holiday.
Though the session was highly volatile yet the benchmarks
managed to fervently surge to higher levels as investors continuedto hunt for fundamentally strong but oversold bargains. The BSE's
thirty share Sensex has amassed over eight hundred points since the
start of new week
while Nifty has
gone on to retrace
the crucial 5,000
bastion by
garnering over two
hundred fifty
points in last two
session.
Sentiments
remained euphoric
right from the
"""""------" initial moments of
trade as apart from the spillover effect of Monday's rally, the strong
overnight rally on Wall Street as well as in European marketsbuoyed local sentiments. On the domestic front, the largely in line
GDP growth numbers showed that Indian economy grew at 7.7% in
the April-June period, the slowest pace since 2010, confirming fears
of a slowdown mainly due to the poor performance of the
manufacturing sector.
Meanwhile August series futures and options contract expiry day
turned out tobe an extremely disappointing affair for the Indian stock
markets as the benchmarks capitulated to the unrelenting selling
pressure amid extremely high volatility. The plunge in domestic
indices appeared even shoddier because of the fact that major stock
markets across the globe staged enthusiastic performances amid the
tentative improvement in investors' risk appetite. Post the ugly
inflation numbers, expectations that the RBImay prolong its hawkish
liquidity tightening stance and hike interest rates for the twelfth time
since March 2010, remained another reason behind the onslaught
across the board in the local markets. Besides, local sentiments were
also undermined by the reports released by Metrological department
that India' s monsoon rains were 8% below normal in the week to
August 24, losing momentum from 26per cent above normal showers inthe
previous week.
On the F&O front, for the August series the benchmarks got badly
butchered by over 12%, the worst series performance since October 2008.
The broader markets too got clobbered out of shape as the Midcap index
got bludgeoned by 11% while the Smallcap index got pulverized by 15%.
Among sectoral movers, the Information Technology index remained the
Volume &Volatility Index (Nifty - Aug 2011)
2500 _ Cash(Rsbn)_ F&O(Rsb --Volatility% 25
2000 20
1500 15
1000 10
500 ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ 8 5
O~~~=-L+~--~~~~~~~~~~~~=-L+O
IS-Aug 19-Aug 22-Aug 23-Aug 24-Aug 25-Aug 26-Aug 29-Aug 30-Aug
Visit www.moneysukh.com
or sms 'mansukh' to 54545
Call Put Analysis (Nifty Sep 2011 ser ies)
70 ~ j; ~
• Call • Put
01 in Lakhs
60
50
40
30
20
10o
4300 4400 4500 4600 4700 4800 4900 5000 5100 5200 5300 5400
top laggard by plummeting 19.6% followed by Metal which slipped 17%
while the Bankex counter was down 15%. From the expiry perspective,
market wide rollover of 62.15%, was below the three months average of
67.17% while Nifty rollovers were at 54.9%, higher than 3month average
of 51.6%. Sectorally, the power, finance, auto and FMCG space witnessed
high rollover into the September series while stocks from the technology,
pharrna, telecom and fertilizers space are observing relatively low rollovers.
Among individual stocks, vast rollovers into September series were
witnessed in index heavyweights like Cairn (81.7%), Yes Bank (77%),
Reliance Power (76%), Reliance Capital (76%) and Reliance Infra (75%)
while low rollovers were seen instocks like Tata Chemicals (34.5%), AndhraBank (35.5%),Sun TV(41%),Patni (43%)and Aurobindo Pharma (43%).
make more, for sure. MMANSUKHInvestment & Trading Solutions
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GLOBAL SNAPSHOT make more, for sure. MMANSUKHInvestment & Trading Solutions
Facing pressure tokeepmoney printing in check, U.S. central bankers are
mulling a modest approach to stimulus that would give the struggling
economy only a tiny boost - if it helps at all. After two rounds of bond
purchases that have pumped $2.3 tri ll ion into the banking system, the
Federal Reserve could buy long-term Treasury debt while selling short-
term securities it already holds. The idea, outlined by Federal Reserve
Chairman Ben Bernanke in July, would be to lower long-term interest
rates without increasing the money supply. That in theory could spur
home purchases by lowering benchmark ratesfor mortgages. It could also
make it cheaperfor companies toborrow so they can buy more equipment.
The Fed has already slashed overnight interest rates to near zero.
Earlier this month, it said it thought it would keep rates low for at
least the next two years. Of course, it could still summon more
dollars and inject them into the system, but higher inflation and
political pressure create an imposing hurdle for such bold action.
Meanwhile we believe The Fed would likely launch some kind of
bond-trading plan despite concerns it might not yield big results,
analysts say. Every bit of growth helps. Yet some are doubtful the
Fed can do much at all by pushing interest rates lower. Despite all
the money given tobanks, lending standards have tightened since
the financial crisis
The USmarket closed higher on Friday and managed tobreak the
four week losing streak. Though the indices traded sideways in
early trade but finished sharply higher at the end on Bernanke
remarks. Fed Chairman Bernanke offered no new measures to
stimulate the economy but ina widely anticipated speech noted the
strength of the US economy and said that recent shocks have not
fundamentally altered the economy. Bernanke also did not
announce any new measures to stimulate the economy and
focused his comments on the fiscal policy and not on monetary
policy. He stated that the Federal Open Market Committee would
consider its options at itsnext meeting in late September.
Themarket wavered after the gross domestic product was revised
lower in the second quarter and the consumer confidence index
was near the lows last seen inMay 1980. Investors feel that the US
economy is on the brink of recession as consumer confidence
declined and retail inflation stays ahead of market expectations.
Many segments of the economy have not recovered since 2008and
continue to languish for more than ten quarters ina row.
According to data released by the USLabor Department, first-time
claims for US unemployment benefits increased in the last week.
The report showed that 417,000 Americans filed new claims for
unemployment benefits in the week ended August 20 an increase
of5,000from the previous week's revised 412,000new claims.
The Congressional Budget Office released a report forecasting a
$1.3 billion federal budget deficit for 2011, the third-largest
shortfall inthe past 65years, asthe United States isfacing profound
budgetary and economic challenges. Meanwhile, the three rating
agencies reaffirmed the AAA status of German debt and France,
Spain and Italy extended ban onshort selling banks.
u.s. Federal Reserve Balance Sheet u.S. Unemployment Claims, Year to Date
s trillions30
Lehman
colapse2_5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0_5
0.0
2006 2007 20[18
OE2
2009 2010 2011
Source- Thomson Reuters D"",.,stre""n, Federa Reserve Reuters graphcJStephen Cup
Source: reutersindia.com
New cla ims for unemployment insurance rose more than expected las t week to 408 000 For the
week ended August 6, ccntrnumq claims increased to 3.7 mil lion and the insured rate held steady
at 2.9 percent
Thousands
'"0--------,------Mllions Percent
41-----------33
_Inti<ldam."
- 4 wk movng al9
_COl li nung c lams -Insured rata
460
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"Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till itgoes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it."
III ··k·· ~......---------------~ae~ore~" = = " = E
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Investment & Trading Solutions
make more, for sure. ECONOMY UPDATEMANSUKH
India's current account def icit (CAD) declined to2.6% of the Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) in 2010-11 f rom 2.8% in the 2009-10, while the capital
account surplus was 3.9% in 2009-10 and 3.5% in 2010-11, Minister of State
for Finance Nama Narain Meena said. By adding further the mini ster said,
' the capital account surplus was, therefore, essentia lly f inancing the CAD. '
While CAD represents the difference in inflows and outflows of foreign
exchange ofa country, the current account surplus happens when investment
from the country inforeign assets is greater than inves tment from abroad in
domestic assets.
The intervention by the Reserve Bank of India in the foreign exchange
market has also been minimal in recent months. 'Hence, capital flows
are not a challenge for the forex and monetary policy management) the
minister said. For the current financial year, government is aiming to
reduce the CAD below the 2010-11 level. However, meeting this targetwill be difficult given the recent developments in the global economy.
The minister said that the recent global developments have impacted
the Indian capital mar kets.
Country's macro-economic fundamentals may get worsen if the global
economy slips back to recession, because the current financial health of
government don't allow it to offer stimulus packages like it has given
during the 2008 global financial meltdown. The uncertainties in the
global economy have increased after the downgrade of the United
States credit rating and debt crisis in European nations.
After releasing the RBI 's Annual report, RBI deputy governor Subir
Gokarn said 'the fiscal space to provide counter-cyclical policy is
limited compared towhat itwas in 2008)by adding further he said 'alot
will hinge on the stand that Fed governor Bernanke takes.
The government is likely to exceed its f iscal deficit target of 4.6% of
Gross Domestic Product for the current financial year on the back of
subsidies on the petroleum products and fertilizers surge. And the
welfare spending on employment programmes such as Mahatma
Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme are also
expected to put limitation on government financial health, if the
revenue collection plunges below the expected level due to slowdown
on economic growth.
ECONOMY UPDATES: In the first quarter of the FY12 India's
economy grew 7.7% against 9.3% in QIFY11. The Farm sector grew
3.9% compared with 2.4% in the year-ago quarter. Manufacturing
grew 7.2%, compared with 10.6% ayear ago. Mining output grew 1.8%,
compared with 7.4% a year ago, Financing, insurance, real estate and
business service grew 9.1%versus 9.8% a year ago. Construction grew
1.2% versus 7.7% a year ago. The economy grew 8.5% on year in
2010/11 compared with an annual growth rate of 8.0 percent in
2009/10. The economy grew almost as per the expectation but on the
other hand, economy isalso exposed to global economic developments
mainly from European regions and United States
The apex regulatory body of Indian banking system, RBI has raised
rates 11 times since March 2010 to curb the inflexibly high inflation,
which ishovering around 9.22% in July is also not seems to easing in
near term. Industrial output grew 8.8% in June, However, above the
forecasted levels helped by strong capital goods production isreinforcing the case for a further rate hikes at the RBI's policy review
going to be held on 16 Sept 2011. Inflation eased in July although the
still-high headline number and persistent price pressures in
manufactured goods raised the odds that policy will have to stay tight
in the economy despite the rising risks to growth. Last week RBIalso
warned against accepting high inflation as the "new normal" and also
said that the industrial sector outlook for country still remained
indecisive due tohigh input cost and week global conditions.
India Q1FY12 GDP up 7.7% YoY
FY09-10 YoY%Chg
INDIA'S CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT
Q4 FYll Q4FY10 ~oY%Ch! FY10-ll
Merchandise trade balance -29.9 -31.5 1.6 -130.5
Invisible net 24.5 18.5 6 86.2
Services 14.5 8.1 6.4 47.7
Transfers 13.8 12.6 1.2 53.4
Income -3.8 -2.1 -1.7 -14.9
Current ACbalance -5.4 -13 7.6 -44.3
Source: RBIdata
-118.4 -12.1
80 6.2
20 ",ercen chang~ rompre"iQ Jsyear P ercen change rompre:Vf()usyear 120
::~:~~' ~~~~':o rIP'i!"~ Tfl ,
35.7 12
52.3 1.1
-8 -6.9
-38.4 -5.9
Figures in $ billion
Source: reutersindia.com
"Bulls make money. Bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered."
! ! ! ! ! ! . . 4 k ! ! ! ! ! ! . . 4 ~~~~ae~~~ore~ .= .• = = . • E
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TECHNICAL PICKS make more, for sure. MMANSUKH
Sintex Industries islikely to spend around Rs 1,100crore on
its upcoming capacity expansion projects across India. The
company plans to invest Rs 250 crore on facilities for custom
moulding, Rs 220 crore on prefab, Rs 300-350 crore on
monolithic, Rs 150 crore on captive power and Rs 50crore on
textiles, between 2011-12 and 2013-14. Most of Sintex's
investments will be at its manufacturing in Gujarat,
Himachal Pradesh, Nagpur, Kolkata, Salem and Uttar
Pradesh. Despite a slowdown in construction activity and
the resultant low cement dispatches, Sintex growth
continues aspre-fab structures use little cement. Sintex isnot
a hard-core infrastructure development company. Its
monolithic products are used in mass housing, railway,
government staff quarters and defence, among others. The
Company's net profit for the quarter ended June 30, 2011 has
surged by 18.97% at Rs 69.13 crore as compared to Rs 58.11
crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2010. Its total Income has
increased by 6.12% at Rs 574.26 crore for the quarter as
compared to Rs 541.13 crore for the corresponding quarter of
the previous year.
On technical perspective, after taking significant correction
from the highs of Rs 190, scrip has shown crucial resistance
below Rs134 level. At current juncture scrip has the potential
to recover from the current level as its technical indicators i.e.
RSI and MACD also revealed some technical pull back in
near term. Hence we recommended 'Buy' in this stock.
A decent increase of about 43.77% in the sales to Rs. 3511.70
millions was observed for the quarter ended June 2011. The
sales figure stood at Rs. 2442.60 millions during the year-ago
period. The Net Loss for the quarter ended June 2011 is Rs.-
100.70 millions as compared to Net Loss of Rs. -248.80
millions of corresponding quarter ended June
20100perating Profit saw a handsome growth to 371.90
millions from 103.00 millions in the quarter ended June 2011.
Meanwhile Credit rating agency, CARE reaffirmed the
assigned 'CARE Al +' rating to the Commercial Paper (CP)
programme (standalone) issue of Raymond for Rs 250.00
crore. The company's ability to improve its profitability in
the scenario of volatility in the currency markets, raw
material prices and increasing competition are the key rating
sensitivities. The ratings continue to derive strength from
the dominant position of Raymond in domestic worsted
suiting fabrics market, well-established operations, presence
across the textile value chain, bouquet of well-established
brands and widespread distribution network.
On technical viewpoint, stock has shown upward bias after
showing double bottom formation around Rs 319. In close
proximity we believe stock iswell poised to move in upward
direction. Moreover it's RSI and other technical indicators
stands in the positive territory where possibility of
turnaround couldn't be rule out. Hence investors are advised
to BUY this stock for a price target ofRs375-400 innear term.
SINT EX IND UST RIE S L TD
SCRIP NAME TRIGGER PRICE TARGETl TARGET 2 STOP LOSS DURATION
SINTEX 135·140 155 165 125 1 Month
R AY MO ND L TD
SCRIP NAME TRIGGER PRICE TARGETI TARGET2
330-340 375 400 310 1MonthAYMOND
"The real measure of your wealth is how much you'd be worth if you lost all your money."
.. ••k·· ~. . . . .- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - § ." .~ a e r = a o. = = .= E
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MMANSUKH make more, for sure. FUNDAMENTAL PICKSInvestment & Trading Solutions
Raymond Ltd
Raymond Ltd incorporated in 1925 is a part of global conglomerate
Raymond Group. Raymond is a leading Indian textile major, it
produces wool-blended and premium polyester viscose worsted
suiting. With 750 retail stores across the country Raymond isvertically
and horizontally integrated to provide customers total textile solutions
and only few companies globally have such a diverse product range of
nearly 20,000 varieties of worsted suiting to cater to customers across
age groups, occasions and styles. Company also manufactures world's
finest fabrics from wool to wool-blended worsted suiting to specialty
ring denims as well as high value shirting. Apart from textile business,
company has also diversified in engineering and aviation. With the
market share of 30%, Raymond isalso a largest manufacturer of steel
files in the world.
Financials: In QIFY12, Raymond has reported a decent increase of
about 43.77% in the Net Sales to Rs. 346.23 crore, operating profit ofthe
company also phenomenally jumped 2511% to Rs 23.63 crore.
Company has reported the Net Loss Rs 10.07 crore as compared to Net
Loss of Rs. 24.88 crore of corresponding quarter ended June 2010. The
operating margin (OPM) of the company jumped to 723bps to 6.82%
from same quarter of the last year. The Net Loss margin of the company
also decline by 742bps to -2.91%from -10.33% in corresponding quarter
ofthe last year.
INVESTMENT GROUNDS
Investing Rs 2bn to enhance the capacity of textile &garments business ...
Raymond is investing around Rs 500 crore to expand its textile and
garments business. Actually, in the phase-I Raymond will invest
around Rs 200 crore in its three plants in Karnataka, Gujarat and
Maharashtra to increase the capacity of its suitings and shirtings
business, company planned toincrease the capacity of suitings from 40
million metres per annum to 105 million metres and shirtings from 15
million metres to 55million metres.
Scaling new stores &launching new products strategically ...
Raymond, which iscurrently running -750 stores cross the country, is
further expanding footprints of its retail stores in other cities like, tier-
III, IV and V, in QIFY12, company has opened 19 new stores in these
smaller cities. Company has planned to add around 100 stores in FY12.
However, company has also closed eight stores during the same
period. During the first quarter of the FY12, company has also
launched a new brand "Makers" fabric on regional basis, in fact
Raymond istrying to attract consumers from the unbranded to cheaper
branded fabrics. However currently company is retailing its new
product only in east only India but in future it will expand through out
the country.
Target Price: 395
Ready toenter inforgings segmentthrough engineering business unit ...
As a part of expansion plans Raymond is also mulling to expand its
engineering business, Raymond is looking for opportunities to enter
the forgings segment during this year. Company will supply forged
machined components to original equipment makers, even as it
expands its existing starter rings and flex plates businesses. To expand
this business company can also follow the acquisition strategy.
Raymond has targeted to achieve a cumulative turnover of Rs 1,200
crore in the next five years.
Disposal of land will reduce all the debts . ..
Raymond has -120 acres of land in Thane, and company is looking
diverse options to sale it completely or partially at different stages.
Actually, Raymond has consolidated net debt of +Rs 12billion and the
sale of this prime land could generate huge cash of - Rs 15billion for the
company, this much of cash can completely reduce the whole debt of
the company which is positive for the company from the cash flow
point ofview.
Quarter & Year Ended QlFY12 QlFY11 %Chg FY11
Net Sales (Rs Cr) 346.23 240.93 43.7 1496.46
Operating Profit (Rs Cr) 23.63 -0.98 2511.2 249.85
OPM (%) (Chg in bps) 6.82 -0.41 723 16.70
PAT (Rs Cr) -10.07 -24.88 59.5 -100.19
PATM (%) (Chg i n bps) -2.91 -10.33 742 -6.70
EPS(Rs) -1.64 -4.05 59.5 -16.32Dividend (%) 0 0 0 10
Equity (Rs Cr) 61.38 61.38 0.0 61.38
Data Matrix as on 30.08.2011 Key Financial Ratios (TIM)
CMP (Rs) 349.25 PIE (x) TIM 0
52- Week High (Rs) 458 P/BV (x) TTM 2.03
52- Week Low (Rs) 245.1 EV/TIM EBIDTA(x) 10.28
Latest Book Value (Rs) 171.96 EV/TIM Sales (x) 2.1
Face Value (Rs) 10 MCap/TTM Sales( x) 1.34
Total No of Shares (Cr) 6.14 Total Debt/Equity (x) 1.18
Avg. Monthly Vol. (Lakhs) 12.57 ROA(%) -4.42
Market Cap (Rs Cr) 2144 ROE (%) -9.37
Beta (Sensex) 1.29 ROCE (%) -2.15
Industry PIE 11.56 Dividend Yield (%) 0.29
Major Shareholders as on 30 June 2011
Promoters (%) 39.09 Fils & GDRs (%) 7.68
Non-Institutions (%) 25.02 Dlls (%) 28.21
"Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for ten years ..rr
- ~".;ake~".;ore~
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MARKET TUTORIALS make more, for sure. MMANSUKHInvestment & Trading Solutions
Taking further to our tutorials on option strategy, we are now going
todiscuss the strategy on" Covered Call" in this edition, Covered call
is widely viewed as a conservative strategy, and professional
investors write covered calls to increase their investment income.
However, individual investors can also benefit from this simple,
effective option strategy by taking the time to learn it. Bydoing so,
investors will add to their investment fund and give themselves
more investment opportunities. Let us look at the covered call and
examine ways that you canuse itin your portfolio.
What isa Covered Call?
Anoptions strategy whereby an investor holds a long position in an
asset and writes (sells)call options onthat same asset inan attempt to
generate increased income from the asset. This is often employed
when an investor has a short-term neutral view on the asset and for
this reason holds the asset long and simultaneously has a short
position via the option togenerate incomefrom the option premium.
Thisisalso known asa "buy-write".
Profita bility from Covered Calls
For the right tobuy shares at a predetermined price inthe future, the
buyer pays the seller ofthe calloption a premium. The premium isa
cashfeepaid tothe sellerby the buyer onthe day the option issold. It
is the seller's money to keep, regardless of whether the option is
exercised.
When &How toSell aCovered Call
Suppose you have sold a covered callthen you will get money today
inexchange for some ofyour stock's future upside. And for the right
timing & strategy just take an Example, let's assume you pay Rs 50
per share for your stock and think that itwill rise toRs60within one
year and simultaneously you'd be willing to sellat Rs 55within six
months, knowing you were giving up further upside, but making a
nice short-term profit. Inthis scenario, selling a covered call onyour
stock position might bean attractive option foryou.
The strategy can be used as after looking at the stock's option chain,
you find Rs55, six-month call option selling for Rs4 per share. You
could sell the Rs 55 call option against your shares, which you
purchased atRs50and hoped tosell atRs60within ayear. Ifyou did
this, you would obligate yourself tosell the shares at Rs 55within the
next sixmonths iftheprice rose tothis amount. Youwould still get to
keep your Rs 4 in premiums plus the Rs 55from the sale of your
shares, for the grand total ofRs59 (an 18%return) over six months.
On the other hand, ifthe stock falls toRs40,for instance, you have to
6 Cov ere d C all S pre ad
4
2 Max profit
VI 0VI0
2 55 60 65-... . . .;: 40. . .0.. 6
8
10
12
stock price
bear Rs10 loss on your original position. However, because you get
to keep the Rs4 option premium from the sale of the calloption, the
total lossisRs6per share and not Rs10.
Advantages and Risks ofCovered Call
Selling covered call options can help offset downside risk or add to
upside return, but it also means you trade the cash you get today
from the option premium for any upside gains beyond Rs 59 per
share over the next sixmonths, including Rs4 inpremiums. In other
words, ifthe stock ends above Rs59,then you comeoutworse than if
you had simply held the stock. However, if the stock ends the six-
month period anywhere below Rs 59per share, then you come out
ahead ofwhere you would havebeen ifyou had not sold the covered
call.While, alternatively the risk involved in covered calls is that, as
long asyou have the short option position, you have tohold onto the
shares, otherwise you will be holding a naked call, which has
theoretically unlimited loss potential should the stock rise.
Therefore, ifyouwant to sellyour shares before expiration, you must
buy back the option position, which will cost you extra money and
someofyour profit.
Summary
Covered calls strategy can be used as a way to minimize your cost
basis or togain incomefrom your shares, even ifthe stock itself does
not pay any dividend. As such, this strategy can serve you as an
additional way to profit from stock ownership. Asoptions have risk,
be sure to study all of your choices, as well as their pros and cons,
before making a decision. For reading more strategies on options,
please followour forth-coming monthly editions.
"The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them"
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Investment & Trading Solutions
make more, for sure. COMMODITY SECTIONMANSUKH
T he r is e in th e g old p ric e h as c on tin ue d a nd s ho wn a b re ak u p a bo ve th e tr en d
li ne . T h is h as a lw a ys b ee n a s ig n t ha t t he g o ld , s il ve r p r ic es h av e' s pi ke d' . T hi s
h as g en er al ly b ee n a s ig na l t o b e r e ad y t o t a ke p ro fi t s a nd b e r e ad y t o g o b ac k i n
l owe r down.
O ver th e la st f ew w eeks g old h as r un a hea d b ut it h as s een b rief a nd sh allo w
c or re ct io ns u nt il t hi s l as t w e ek w h en t ra de rs a nd s pe cu la to r s c au se d a 's pi ke '
t o $1 . 910 , b e fo r e an e qua ll y d rama ti c f al l b a ck t o $1,716. This is n ot th e s o rt o f
c or re ct io n w e a re d is cu ss in g h er e. T h e s pe ed a nd e xt en t o f t he c or r ec ti on d id
n ot r efle ct th e m a r ke t f un da me nta ls . S o w e m us t a sk , " Ar e th e c u rr en t b uy er s
a ls o po t en ti al s e ll er s ?" I n d e ve lo p ed ma rke ts , t he c onc e pt t ha t a n i nv e st or w i ll
n ot t ak e a p ro fi t o nc e h is t ar ge t p ri ce is r e ac h ed s eems r id ic u lo u s b e cau se i t is
b eli ev ed t ha t a ll b uy er s w il l b e s e ll er s w h en t he y h av e a g o od p ro fit . B u t i n t he
c ha ng ed g ol d ma rk et o f t o da y b uy er s a re n o t o ft en s el le rs , a sw e k now i t.
The ongoing uncertainty in the developed world and overwhelming
debt in the face of further economic downturns, points to demand for
gold coming from the developed world; however, gold demand is
lackluster there, at best.
Gold went really global around five years ago. In 2009 central banks
came in as buyers. These two factors have changed the gold market
entirely; they have distorted the factors bearing on technical analysis
and changed the way prices move now. In fact, the very nature of
investors in gold has changed, and for good!
Ofcourse the market looks as though itneeds a major correction, ifyou
look at it through the eyes of six years ago. If you believe the picture
painted by the old criteria, you should sell gold and stay out until it
drops back, but to where? Ifwe understand the new investors and how
they think, then our conclusions should be different. Look at what has
happened since June and note that while the risks in the gold market
have risen, current buyers are not price chasers either. This fact alone
should make us ask.
Are they likely to be sellers because of a swift rise?
What we have seen isa failure tofollow prices up, but towait until they
pull back and for physical gold tobe on offer. The new investor wants
physical gold itself and isnot so concerned with price. If they are right,
sooner or later the price will rise towell above what they have paid. The
lifespan of their investment is generations long, not days, weeks, or
years long.
The conditions that have lifted gold from $275 to $1,900 continue to
persist. The gold price is not about gold; it is about the bear market in
currencies, the deteriorating confidence in the value of currencies, as
well as developed world's government's ability to restore that
confidence. As these factors point to more of the same expect a
continuation in the fall of currencies against gold and silver to levels
deemed incredible by the developed markets ofthe world.
Do we expect the value ofcurrencies to rise? Do we expect a resurgence
of economic health in the developed world? Do we expect strong
government with the force and conviction to produce a reformed
strong monetary system across a financially united world?
"Money is like manure. You have to spread it around or it smells."
MANSUKH SECURITIES & FINANCE LTD.
MANSUKH COMMODITY FUTURES PVT. LTD
NSE: INB/INF230781431, NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-140-2000
MEMBER NCDX-CO-04-00187& MCX: 10615(FMC:NCDEXlTCM/CORP/0293 & MCXlTCM/CORP/074
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Disclaimer :Th is repor t i s fo r i nformational purposes only and conta ins information , opinion , mater ia l obtained from rel iable sources and every effort has been made to avo id errors and omiss ions
an d is n ot to b e c on st ru ed a s a n a dv ic e o ra n o ffer to act on v iews expressed there in or an offer to buy and/or sel l any secur it ies or related f inancial i ns truments . Mansukh, itsemployees and i ts group
companies sha ll not be respons ib le and/or l iable to anyone for any d irec t or consequential use of the contents thereof . Reproduct ion of the contents o f th is repor t i nany form or byany means w ithout
p ri or wr it ten p ermis si on of the Man su kh i s p ro hi bit ed. Pl ea se n ote tha t we a nd o ur a ff il ia te , o ff ic er s, d ir ec tor s a nd e mpl oy ee s, in clu din g p erson s in vo lv ed i n the p rep arat io n of is su an ce o f thi s
mater ia l may; (a) f rom t ime to t ime, have long or short pos it ions in, and buy orse ll the secur it ies thereof , o f company ( ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in these secur it ies inways d if fe renl from
those d iscussed in thi s repor t o r (c) beengaged any other t ransacti on involving such secur it ies and earn brokerage or o ther compensat ion oractas a market maker in the f inancial i ns truments orthe
c ompa ny (i es) d is cu ss ed h erei n o r may p er fo rm o r s eek to pe rform i nv es tment ba nk in g s ervic es for s uc h C ompa ny (i es ) o r a ct a s a dv is or or l end er / b or ro we r to s uc h Co mp an y( ies ) or h av e othe r
potenti al confl ic t o f i nteres t w ith respect toany recommendat ion and related information and opinions. A ll d isputes sha ll besubjec t to the exc lusi ve jur isdi ct ion of Delhi H igh Court .
Sa fe Ha rb or S ta te me nt : So me forwa rd lo ok in g s ta temen ts o n p ro je ct io ns , es timates , e xp ec ta ti on, o ut lo ok e tc a re in cl ud ed i n thi s u pd ate o th el p i nv es to rs / a nal ys ts g et a b et te r c omprehe ns ion o f
the Company 's products and make informed investment dec is ions . Actua l resul ts may, however , d if fe r mater ia ll y f rom those sta ted on account o ffac tors such aschanges ingovernment regulat ions ,
tax reg imes, economic developments w ithin Ind ia and the countri es w ithin which the Company conducts i ts bus iness exchange rate and interes t rate movements , impact o f competing products and
the ir p ri cing . product demand and supply constra in ts . Investors are adv ised to consu lt the ir cer ti fi ed f inancial adv isor before mak ing any investments to meet the ir f inancial goa ls .
! ! !! !! !. . ~ k ! ! ! ! ! ! ! . . ~ ~! ! ! '= " ~ a e ! ! ! '= " ~ o r e ~~ . = . . E - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - . . . .
8/4/2019 Monthly Magzine- September 2011-Mansukh Investment and Trading Solutions..
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AUXILIARY SECTION make more, for sure. MMANSUKH
fa . · 1 ' d - t . 1- '1 . . , . - k · t5, Y ' connec le i 0 ud~maille'
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IntroductionMansukh Securities has brought Alert for Clients Service for its customers to remain informed and connected withthe stock market while onmove.
J aamoon Ale Features:1.Conditional Alerts -This feature allows users to set alerts based on price trends.
2.Periodic Alerts - This feature allows users to set time-based alerts.3. Market Open and Market Close Alerts - This feature allows users to set alerts based on Market Open andMarket Close conditions.
Steps To Register And Use Ale Platforma. Clickhttp://www.moneysukh.com .
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h. You can also view the alerts you have created using "View alerts" link