Mutual FundReview
October 20 2009 | Mutual Fund October 20 2009 | Mutual Fund October 20 2009 | Mutual Fund
November 19, 2009 | Mutual Fund Mutual Fund Review
October 21, 2015
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research
Note: Whenever, returns for the scheme are shown in the report, they are for the growth option of the scheme.
Mutual Fund Review
Equity Markets ....................................................................................... 2 Debt Markets.......................................................................................... 3 MF industry synopsis ............................................................................ 3 MF Category Analysis............................................................................ 5
Equity funds...................................................................................... 5
Equity diversified funds....................................................................... 6 Equity Infrastructure fund.................................................................... 7 Equity Banking Funds.......................................................................... 8 Equity FMCG........................................................................................ 8 Equity Pharma Funds .......................................................................... 9 Equity Technology Funds.................................................................... 9
Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) ....................................................... 10 Balanced funds ............................................................................... 11 Monthly Income Plans (MIP) .......................................................... 11 Arbitrage Funds .............................................................................. 12 Debt funds ...................................................................................... 13
Liquid Funds ...................................................................................... 13 Income funds..................................................................................... 15 Gilt Funds ........................................................................................ 16 Gold ETFs: Medium term outlook benign......................................... 18 Model Portfolios .................................................................................. 19
Equity funds model portfolio.......................................................... 19 Debt funds model portfolio ............................................................ 20
Top Picks.............................................................................................. 21
October 21, 2015
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research
Page 2
Equity Markets Update
Indian equity markets staged a smart recovery during September and October 2015 as value buying emerged at lower levels supported by positive global markets
The higher-than-expected 50 bps repo rate cut by the RBI provided the much needed trigger for markets to regain lost ground and revive investor interest
Global markets were also supportive as the US Federal Reserve refrained from hiking the US Fed fund rate and maintained status quo in its September policy meeting
Foreign institutional investors turned net buyers during October and bought shares worth US$555 million in the first half of October after having sold off equities worth US$5 billion in April-September 2015
Industrial production for August was a sharp positive surprise at 6.4% YoY compared to 4.1% YoY in the previous month. This is the highest IIP reading since October 2012, indicating some pick-up in domestic activity. However, trade data indicated that exports declined more than 24%, indicating a slowdown in global growth
Overall inflation remained benign with CPI for September 2015 inching up to 4.4% while WPI came in at -4.5%, in line with expectations. CPI food inflation (CFPI) has marginally gone up to 3.87% given the rise in prices of onions & pulses and waning of the positive base effect. Core CPI is hovering around 4.4% YoY (0.6% MoM). CPI August 2015 was revised upwards to 3.74% from 3.66%. WPI September 2015 was still in the red at -4.54% for the eleventh consecutive month. Core WPI at -1.86 signifies a slack in demand for input commodities
Outlook
The recent up move from around 7500 to 8000 on the CNX Nifty after having witnessed downward pressure since March 2015 highlights waning downward momentum and signals an overall positive turnaround in equity markets
We believe the markets have formed a significant bottom at the September 2015 low of around 25000, 7500 on the Sensex and Nifty, respectively. However, the index may extend the time wise consolidation as it undergoes a base formation in the coming months
We believe the price wise correction has approached maturity and markets will undergo consolidation in the coming month to essentially form a base for the next up move. Therefore, any intermediate throwbacks from here on should be utilised to buy in a staggered manner from a medium-term perspective to ride the larger uptrend
Structurally, the outlook for the Indian equity markets has improved significantly. This is on the back of a steep correction in commodities, especially crude oil & industrial metals, a 125 bps repo rate cut and subsequent transmission of the same to the corporate balance sheets and relatively stable exchange rates
Investors should start accumulating from current levels. Every sharp correction should be used as an incremental buying opportunity from a medium-term perspective
Markets may consolidate post the sharp run up. The recent correction has removed the froth from the markets and made it healthy. Any correction from here on should be used as a buying opportunity
CNX Nifty: Volatility increases in last few months
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
9000
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
All major indices rebound from previous month’s fall…
7.1
5.1
4.6
4.4 4.1
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
BSE SmallCap
BSESensex
BSE 500 BSE 100 BSEMidcap
Retu
rn (%
)
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research Returns : September 15, 2015– October 15, 2015
All sectors except IT performed well…
15.1
10.9
5.8
5.7
5.4
5.3
5.3
5.2
5.1
4.6
1.5
-0.9
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Con.
Dura
Real
ity
Heal
thca
re
Met
al
Bank
ing
Auto
PSU
Oil &
Gas
Sens
ex
FMCG
Cap.
Good
s IT
Retu
rn (%
)
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research Returns : September 15, 2015– October 15, 2015
Research Analyst
Sachin Jain [email protected] Sheetal Ashar [email protected] Isha Bansal [email protected]
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research
Page 3
Debt Markets Update
In a surprise move, the Reserve Bank of India cut the repo rate by 50 basis points to 6.75% from 7.25% against market expectation of 25 bps. The tone of the policy is also dovish indicating it will continue to be accommodative. The policy also mentioned tepid growth across the manufacturing, services and export segment of the economy
The positive sentiment resulted in a rally in government bonds. Consequently, the benchmark 10 year G-Sec yield fell around 20 bps from 7.72% to 7.50%
The RBI mentioned that while its stance will remain accommodative, the focus in the near term will be to ensure transmission of the cumulative 125 bps of rate cuts that had taken place in this cycle
The RBI acknowledged that there was broad-based disinflation and core inflation had come down in recent months as capacity utilisation remained low. Better food management by the government and moderate MSP hikes have ensured that food inflation has broadly remained contained. Global commodity prices (including those of crude oil) have remained under pressure and now look likely to remain muted over the medium-term
The RBI highlighted that the more aggressive rate cut was in effect a front-loading of policy action in light of the weak global activity as well as a lack of pick-up in the domestic demand and investment cycle
The RBI has increased the FPI limit in government bonds to 5% of the total outstanding government securities in a staggered manner by March 2018. Currently, the FPI holding was at 3.8%. The change in FPI limits has further opened up room for | 1,20,000 crore in central government securities by March 2018. All these augur well for debt funds, especially duration funds
For the first time, the RBI has clarified on the reference rate for the calculation of the real rate of 150-200 bps. It has mentioned that the one year treasury bill rate is the rate to be used to determine the real rate over CPI. Historically, the spread one year T-bill over repo rate is around 25-50 bps. Effectively, the RBI has upped the spread as earlier the market used to consider repo to be the reference rate
Outlook
An increase in FII limit in a phased manner to 5% of outstanding government securities (that are currently at 3.8%) along with 2% additional limit for state development loans are a structural positive for long term bonds
FIIs have bought more than | 15000 crore in the first half of October after the limit was increased. It indicates the significant interest of foreign investors in Indian debt market
The Indian debt markets remain attractive from a medium-term perspective as the inflation trend remains on a downward trajectory and well within RBI’s target range
Investors may consider both duration as well as accrual funds depending on their risk-return profile
Concerns over below normal monsoons have subsided to a large extent. As the fall in crude and industrial commodities is inflationary and fiscal positive, this will keep the outlook for bond markets upbeat
Indian debt markets remain attractive from a medium-term perspective as the inflation trend remains on a downward trajectory and well within RBI’s target range
G-Sec yields fall following repo rate cut…
7.5
8.0
8.5
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15M
ar-1
5
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug
-15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
Yiel
d (%
)
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
Fiscal roadmap Fiscal Deficit as % of GDP TargetFY15 (Revised Estimates) 4.1FY16 3.9FY17 3.5FY18 3.0
Source: RBI, ICICIdirect.com Research
G-sec yield curve shifts lower
7.2
7.5 7.7
7.67.5
7.8 7.9 7.8
7.17.37.57.77.98.1
1yr 3yr 5yr 10yr
Yiel
d (%
)
14-Oct-15 15-Sep-15
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
Corporate bond yield curve becomes steeper
8.2
7.9
8.1 8.3
8.3 8.4 8.48.4
7.47.67.88.08.28.48.6
1yr 3yr 5yr 10 yr
Yiel
d (%
)
14-Oct-15 15-Sep-15
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research
Page 4
MF industry synopsis In September 2015, assets under management (AUM) grew 24% YoY to
| 1187313 crore with the share of equity oriented funds at 33% from 29% in September 2014. Total net outflows in MFs were | 77142 crore in September 2015 due to substantial outflows from income and liquid funds despite the inflow into equity funds
Inflows into equity schemes were | 5444 crore in September 2015 while there were net outflows in income funds of | 26717 crore. Liquid funds also witnessed outflows to the tune of | 60861 crore
Exhibit 1: Equity AUM drives overall AUM
1012
824
9594
15
1095
653
1090
309
1051
343
1181
356
1202
196
1186
364
1173
294
1187
313
1006
452
1082
807
1203
547
1317
267
1254
506
32% 32%29%
31%
23%
27%31% 31% 31%
25%
19% 20%
31%
24% 24%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jul-1
4
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
| Cr
ore
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
Total AUM (RHS) Growth (YoY)
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 2: AUM share September 2014
Income48%
Gilt1%
Money Market19%
Gold ETFs 1%
Equity29%
Other ETFs0%
FOF(Overseas)0% Balanced
2%
Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 3: AUM share September 2015…share of equity AUM increases significantly in past year
Income46%
Gilt1%
Money Market15%
Gold ETFs 1%
Equity33%
Other ETFs1%
FOF(Overseas)0% Balanced
3%
Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 4: HDFC AMC maintains top position, Kotak Mahindra records highest YoY growth in AAUM
1708
38
1646
28
1529
19
1334
04
1040
77
8862
8
7732
8
5677
4
5651
1
3733
9
1414
81
1276
63
1220
68
1026
16
8325
0
7285
0
5561
1
4573
8
3744
5
3748
3
25000
50000
75000
100000
125000
150000
175000
200000
HDFC
MF
Ipru
MF
Relia
nce
MF
Birla
Sunl
ife M
F
UTI M
F
SBI M
F
Fran
klin
Tem
pelto
n
IDFC
MF
Kota
kM
ahin
dra
DSP
Blac
kRoc
k
| Cr
Sep-15 Sep-14
Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 5: HDFC, Reliance highest contributors to increase in AAUM
HDFC MF, 12%
Reliance MF, 14%
Ipru MF, 12%
Birla Sunlife MF, 12%
UTI MF, 8%SBI MF, 6%
Franklin Tempelton
MF, 9%
Kotak Mahindra MF, 4%
DSP BlackRock
MF, 7%
IDFC MF, 0%Others, 16%
Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research
Page 5
MF Category Analysis
Equity funds Midcap funds delivered 23% return in the last year, significantly
outperforming large cap funds, which delivered 9% return Among sector funds, pharma funds delivered highest returns followed
by infra and banking funds Exhibit 6: Pharma, midcap clear winners (returns as on October 15, 2015)
34.7
22.8
17.3
12.8
11.2
10.4
8.8
6.7
34.3
29.1
15.8
19.8
14.8
13.1 16
.2
25.5
24.1
15.9 19
.3
10.1
3.3 4.
9
8.3
12.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Pharma Mid cap FMCG Diversified Infrastructure Banking Large Cap Technology
Retu
rns
(%)
1 year 3 Year 5 year
Source: Crisil Fund Analyser, ICICIdirect.com Research ; Returns over one year are compounded annualised returns
Exhibit 7: Inflow into equity funds remain strong
794656004963
6651
9156
54445364 632458408481
105841007612273
6133
-4500-2500
-50015003500550075009500
1150013500
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Net
Inflo
w (
| Cr
)
Net inflow (Equity + ELSS)
Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 8: Equity AUM at high levels
2667
42
2803
97
2971
60
3146
84
3194
78
3409
36
3457
39
3451
39
3451
29
3651
66
3723
13
3936
02
3817
23
3865
17
150000200000250000300000350000400000450000
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
| la
kh C
rore
Equity +ELSS
Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 9: Deployment of equity funds
Allocation Banks Software Pharma Auto FinanceConsumer
Non-Durables
Construction PetroleumIndustrial
Capital Goods
Industrial Products
| crore 84360 43053 33753 28516 23622 21157 16445 16305 15,692 14951
% of total 20.9 10.7 8.4 7.1 5.8 5.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.7
Source: Sebi, ICICIdirect.com Research, Sector Classification (as per Amfi)
Equity AUM increased by | 4794 crore in the last month
whereas the net inflow into the equity fund is | 5444 crore
indicating that an increase in AUM was mainly on the
account of inflows
Exposure to banks and finance stocks together account for
the highest proportion with 27% of equity assets followed
by technology and pharma
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research
Page 6
Equity diversified funds
Equity diversified funds delivered healthy returns last year. Midcap funds were outperformers with 23% one year average return followed by multicap funds with one year average return of 13% and then large caps with 9% return against the BSE Sensex return of 4% as on October 15, 2015
The higher-than-expected 50 bps repo rate by the RBI provided the much needed trigger for markets to regain lost ground and revive investor interest
Global markets were also supportive as the US Federal Reserve refrained from hiking the US Fed fund rate and maintained status quo in its September policy meeting
Structurally, the outlook for the Indian equity markets has improved significantly. This is on the back of a steep correction in commodities, especially crude oil & industrial metals, a 125 bps repo rate cut and subsequent transmission of the same to corporate balance sheets along with relatively stable exchange rates
Investors should start accumulating from current levels. Every sharp correction should be used as an incremental buying opportunity from a medium-term perspective
The Sensex is currently trading at 17.0x FY16E EPS of | 1608 and 14.4x FY17E EPS of | 1901, which provides comfort. Investors should accumulate multicap funds following a buy on dips or SIP strategy
Caution is required in midcap and small cap mutual funds as they have significantly outperformed large caps in the current market rally since September 2013. Therefore, if overall market volatility increases, midcap and small caps funds in the near term may underperform. Investment in the same should only be over a five year investment horizon
Recommended funds Large cap
Axis Equity Birla Sunlife Frontline Equity ICICI Prudential Focused Bluechip Equity SBI Bluechip UTI Opportunities
Diversified
Franklin India Prima Plus Fund Reliance Equity Opportunities ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund
Midcap
HDFC Mid-Cap Opportunities Fund Franklin India Smaller Companies Fund SBI Magnum Global Fund
(Refer to www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund)
View Short term: Positive Long-term: Positive
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research
Page 7
Equity Infrastructure fund The government has been making efforts towards reform process such
as online environment clearance, de-regulating diesel prices, FDI in Defence & Railways, etc. It has also been trying to tap innovative financial avenues, which will not only bring new investments but also revive stalled projects (worth | 8.8 lakh crore)
In terms of vertical, the road sector is likely to be in a sweet spot. The
government has rolled out projects worth $93 billion including the $45 billion flagship road building project NHDP over the next three years. Besides NHDP, opportunities include 'Bharat Mala' project of $12 billion for 6000 km and 'Char Dham' connectivity for 2500 km for $8 billion. This awarding would offer humungous opportunities for EPC players like NCC, KNR & Simplex Infrastructure and BOT players such as Ashoka Buildcon and IRB Infrastructure
Thirdly, the recent RBI action to reduce the repo rate by 50 basis points
(bps) also augurs well for the infrastructure sector as this will not only reduce their borrowing cost but also improve liquidity through better working capital cycle
Fourthly, with the RBI's action allowing banks to issue long term bonds
for infrastructure with benefits such as relaxation of CRR & SLR norms and longer duration of bonds, we believe the pressure on developers to fund infrastructure projects would ease. Hence, cost of funds and strain on cash flow are likely to reduce, going ahead
Going ahead, while we believe there would be opportunities in
infrastructure, we remain selectively positive on the sector Preferred Picks
Franklin Build India Fund L&T Infrastructure Fund ICICI Prudential Infrastructure Fund
Refer www.icicidirect.com for
details of the fund
View Short-term: Positive Long-term: Positive
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research
Page 8
Equity Banking Funds Industry credit growth remained subdued at 9.6% YoY up to September
18, 2015. Accordingly, we expect credit growth for PSU banks to be subdued (lower than industry traction) and at ~18% for private banks. This would result in muted net interest income growth for PSBs
We believe provisions will continue to stay high as asset quality still
remains under pressure. Slippages i.e. fresh NPAs may stay elevated for most PSU banks. During Q1FY16, a large part of slippages came from the restructured book. The management has indicated that NPA pain may continue for at least the next two quarters. Fresh restructuring under the 5:25 scheme remains to be seen. Windfall MTM gains due to a decline in 10 year G-sec yields led by a 50 bps rate cut may turn out to be a profit saver for PSU banks during Q2FY16E. Private banks, on the other hand, continued with the healthy performance on profitability
The recent reform measures planned under “Indradhanush” for PSU
banks including capitalisation of | 25000 crore for FY16 is positive over the longer term. Appointment of private sector honchos can also be a game changer in the overall management strategy of PSU banks
We believe that, going ahead, asset quality woes and, consequently,
growth concerns for PSU banks will continue for the bulk of FY16E. The expected turnaround in the economy should augur well for the banking sector, as a whole. Hence, we remain positive on the sector over the long term
Preferred Picks
ICICI Prudential Banking & Financial Services Reliance Banking Fund UTI Thematic - Banking Sector Fund
Refer to www.icicidirect.com for
details of the fund
Equity FMCG FMCG companies continue to witness muted demand from both rural
and urban India. With the significant correction in commodity prices, the industry has taken price cuts to pass on raw material benefits. This has affected revenue growth, mainly due to the absence of a price hike in sales. However, a decline in commodity prices has resulted in a considerable expansion in operating margins despite companies increasing their advertisement & promotion (A&P) spend
In the last few months, the valuation multiples of FMCG companies have seen some contraction in the wake of concerns over a demand revival. We believe recent events would remain an overhang on FMCG stocks. This may result in a further contraction of premium multiples it commands vis-à-vis the market
Preferred Picks
ICICI Prudential FMCG Fund SBI FMCG Fund
Refer www.icicidirect.com
for details of the fund
View Short-term: Neutral Long-term: Positive
View Short-term: Neutral Long-term: Neutral
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research
Page 9
Equity pharma funds Strong visibility on the back of a good product basket and a reasonable
base business growth continue to attract buying interest in the pharma sector despite premium valuations
US and Indian formulations remain main growth drivers for the sector on the back of a strong pipeline and incremental product launches. Healthy operating margins, relatively low leverage and strong return ratios are some of the other attributes for most pharma players
The rupee has weakened vis-à-vis the US$ and is likely to stay at the higher level, which is likely to nullify the currency impact in Europe and rest of the world
We continue to maintain our long term bullish view on the sector despite premium valuations on the back of earning visibility, consistent operating cash flows and strong balance sheets
Preferred Picks
Reliance Pharma Fund SBI Pharma Fund UTI-Pharma & Healthcare
Refer to www.icicidirect.com
for details of the fund
Equity Technology Funds
Tier-I IT companies ex-Wipro (to report on October 21) reported average 3.2% QoQ (3.1% estimate) dollar revenue growth in Q2FY16 vs. 3.1% decline in Q1FY16 and 1.2% decline in Q4FY15. Constant currency revenues grew 4% as dollar growth was negatively impacted (~80 bps) by cross currency headwinds. Infosys reported a stellar revenue beat while TCS and HCL Tech were soft led by company specific reasons. Currency tailwinds and operational efficiency were key margin tailwinds partially offset by wage hikes and business re-investments (S&M, onsite). The FY16E commentary was upbeat led by healthy deal signings and traction in digital technologies
Operationally, discretionary spending remains healthy in the US and led growth while Europe rebounded modestly. Insurance, telecom and oil & gas verticals are structurally challenged and growth continues to be uneven
The average rupee has depreciated ~5.2% in H1FY16 and could aid margins leading to earnings upgrade in FY16E, FY17E. Upsides could be in line with earnings upgrades given blended valuations are at ~16x FY17E. However, sharp sell-offs should be used to accumulate given long-term growth prospects
Preferred Picks
ICICI Prudential Technology Fund DSPBR Technology fund
Refer to www.icicidirect.com for
details of the fund
View Short-term: Neutral Long-term: Positive
View Short-term: Neutral Long-term: Positive
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research
Page 10
Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) In India, three kinds of ETFs are available: Equity index ETFs, liquid
ETFs and gold ETFs
An equity index ETF tracks a particular equity index such as the BSE Sensex, NSE Nifty, Nifty Junior, etc
An equity index ETF scores higher than index funds on several grounds. The expense of investing in ETFs is relatively less by 0.50-1.00% in comparison to an index fund. The expense ratio for ETFs is in the range of 0.50-0.75%, excluding brokerage, while for index funds the expense ratio varies in the range of 1.0-1.5%. However, brokerage (which varies) is applicable on ETFs while there are no entry loads now on index funds
Tracking error, which explains extent of deviation of returns from the underlying index, is usually low in ETFs as it tracks the equity index on a real time basis whereas it is done only once in a day for index funds
ETFs also provide liquidity as they are traded on stock exchanges and investors may subscribe or redeem them even on an intra-day basis. This is unavailable in index funds, which are subscribed/redeemed only on a closing NAV basis
There are over 400 ETFs traded globally. ETFs are transparent and cost efficient. The decision on which ETF to buy should be largely governed by the decision on getting exposure in that asset class
Volumes are higher only in the Goldman Sachs Benchmark ETFs and tracking error is also lowest at 0.01%. Therefore, it is our top pick for investors wanting Nifty-linked returns
CPSE ETF is a new entry in the Goldman Sachs ETF offering. The ETF invests in select 10 PSU stocks and has been listed on the exchange since April. It has delivered 16% return since its launch
Exhibit 10: CPSE ETF leads high inflows
51
-439
429 492773
128
752 623
-579-334
73
-216
469
1927
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Net
Inflo
w (
| Cr
)
Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 11: AUM increases sharply
5239
4737 54
65 5997 67
02
7056 77
95
8060
7404
7317
7322
7170
7032
8920
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
| Cr
ore
Other ETFs
Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research
Traded volumes should be the major criterion that is used
while deciding on investment in ETFs. Higher volumes
ensure lower spread and better pricing to investors...
Tracking error, though it should be considered, is not the
deciding factor as variation among funds is not huge...
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research
Page 11
Balanced funds Balanced funds are hybrid funds. More than 65% of the overall portfolio
is invested in equities. Hence, as per provisions of the Income Tax Act, 1961, any capital gains over one year become tax free. Also, dividends declared by funds are tax free
In case you separately invest 35% of your investible corpus in a debt fund, the same will be subject to higher taxation. However, if the whole corpus is invested in balanced funds, 100% shall have lower taxation applicable as mentioned above
After a sharp rally in equity markets, the funds can be a preferred investment avenue as the debt proportion serves to protect on intermediate relief rallies or the downturn while providing 65% participation on further upsides
Exhibit 12: Moderate inflow…
448732
12351491
1202 1425
2075
879
1789
835 1183
4419
1358
0500
100015002000250030003500400045005000
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Net
Inflo
w (
| Cr
)
Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 13: Stable AUM…
1729
3
1827
7
2108
0
2276
9
2449
0
2579
2
2650
7
2636
8
2701
5
2874
9
3225
9
3455
0
3466
0
13000
18000
23000
28000
33000
38000
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
| Cr
ore
Balanced
Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research
Preferred Picks
ICICI Prudential Balanced - Advantage Fund
HDFC Balanced Fund
Tata Balanced Fund
(Refer to www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund)
Monthly Income Plans (MIP) An MIP offers investors an option to invest in debt with some
participation in equity, ~10-25% of the portfolio. They are suitable for investors who seek higher return from a debt portfolio and are comfortable taking nominal risk. The debt corpus of the portfolio provides regular income while the equity portion of the fund provides alpha. However, returns can also get eroded by a fall in equities
MIPs can be classified into aggressive MIP and conservative MIP based on its equity allocation. Risk averse investors should invest in MIPs with lower equity allocation to avoid capital erosion
The change in taxation announced in the Union Budget 2014, shall be applicable to MIP funds (refer to debt funds section for details)
Preferred Picks
Birla Sun Life MIP II - Savings 5 Plan
ICICI Prudential MIP 25
DSPBR MIP Fund
(Refer www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund)
Investors with a limited investible surplus and a lower risk
appetite but with a willingness to invest in equities can
look to invest in these funds
View Short-term: Positive Long-term: Positive
View Short-term: Neutral Long-term: Positive
MIP should be a preferred debt investment for funds that need to be parked for over two years
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research
Page 12
Arbitrage Funds Arbitrage funds seek to exploit market inefficiencies that get manifested
as mispricing in the cash (stock) and derivative markets
Availability of arbitrage positions depends very much on the market scenario. A directional movement in the broader index attracts speculators in the market and cost of funding makes futures positions biased
Arbitrage funds are classified as equity funds as they invest into equity share and equity derivative instruments. Since these are classified as equity funds for taxation, dividends declared by the funds are tax free. No capital gains tax will be applicable if they are sold after a year
These funds can be looked upon as an alternative to liquid funds. However, for these funds, returns totally depend on arbitrage opportunities available at a particular point of time and investors should consider reviewing the same before investing. Returns of arbitrage funds are non-linear and, therefore, unsuitable for investors who want consistent return across time period
Arbitrage funds should be used as a liquid investment and should not be a major part of the investor’s portfolio
Availability of arbitrage positions depends very much on the market scenario. Directional movement in the broader index attracts speculators in the market while cost of funding makes future positions biased
In case of positive movement, long build-up in futures puts pricing in an upward bias and creates a window for direct arbitrage positions
On the other hand, negative bias attracts fresh sellers in the market. Speculators try to sell the stock much cheaper than theoretical prices. In such situations, reverse arbitrage opportunities arise
On the other hand, a range bound market does not give ample room to create arbitrage positions
Currently, there are few arbitrage opportunities available in the market which can lead to better returns
Preferred Picks
ICICI Prudential Equity - Arbitrage Fund – Regular IDFC Arbitrage Fund - (Regular) Kotak Equity Arbitrage Fund SBI Arbitrage Opportunities Fund
(Refer to www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund)
View Short-term: Positive Long-term: Positive
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research
Page 13
Debt funds Exhibit 14: Category average returns
7.95
12.0
3
9.11
7.83
11.5
3
8.99
8.01
9.42
8.78
8.10 8.
63 8.86
7.76 8.24 8.66
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
6 months 1 year 3year%
Gilt Funds Income LT Income ST Income UST Liquid
Source: ACE MF, ICICIdirect.com Research Note : Returns as on October 15, 2015; Returns over one year are compounded annualised returns
Exhibit 15: Deployment of funds: September 2015
CP Bank CD
Bank CD
Bank CD
Corporate Debt
-500
00 0
5000
0
1000
00
1500
00
2000
00
2500
00
3000
00
3500
00
Less than 90 days
90 days to 182days
182 days to 1 year
1 year and above
Government Securities
CP
Bank CD
Treasury Bills
CBLO
Other Money Market Investments
Corporate Debt
PSU Bonds
Securitised Debt
Bank FD
Source: SEBI, ICICIdirect.com Research Note : Holding as percentage of total AUM
Exhibit 16: G-sec yield curve
7.5 7.7
7.67.5
7.8 7.9
7.8
7.4
7.5
7.6
7.7
7.8
7.9
8.0
1yr 3yr 5yr 10yr
Yiel
d (%
)
14-Oct-15 15-Sep-15
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 17: Corporate bond curve
8.2
8.38.1
7.9
8.48.48.4
8.3
7.4
7.6
7.8
8.0
8.2
8.4
8.6
1yr 3yr 5yr 10 yr
Yiel
d (%
)
14-Oct-15 15-Sep-15
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
Liquid Funds View Neutral
With yields correcting over 80 bps in a year, gilt and duration funds outperformed The RBI has cut its repo rate by 125 bps in the current year, which will push overall interest rates down, thus benefiting duration funds further
Investment into securities with maturity of less than 90 days and more than one year dominate total investments by mutual funds
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research
Page 14
Liquid fund returns moderated to 8.1-8.7% pre tax from over 9% earned in the previous year. Liquid funds witnessed an outflow of | 60861 crore as a quarter end phenomenon
The Reserve Bank of India’s proactive liquidity management operations ensured that Call rates stayed range bound around the policy rate reducing day-to-day volatility. CBLO rates also hovered just above the repo rate. With an improvement in liquidity conditions, the certificate of deposit and commercial paper rates in the three month bracket also eased over 100 bps to the 7.5-8% range from 9.1-9.3%. The same is likely to moderate returns in liquid funds, going forward
For less than a year, individuals in the higher tax bracket should opt for dividend option as the dividend distribution tax @ 28.325% is marginally lower. Also, though the tax arbitrage has reduced, they still earn better pre-tax returns over bank savings (3-4%) and current accounts (0-3%)
Changes in taxation rules announced in Union Budget 2014 are also applicable to liquid funds, as post tax returns in less than a three-year period get reduced for individuals falling in the higher tax bracket (30% tax slab) and for corporates
Exhibit 18: Call rates near repo rate
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Jul-1
4Au
g-14
Sep-
14Oc
t-14
Nov
-14
Dec-
14Ja
n-15
Feb-
15M
ar-1
5Ap
r-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug-
15Se
p-15
Oct-1
5
%
Call rate
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 19: …CP/CD yields decreases
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
Jul-1
4Au
g-14
Sep-
14Oc
t-14
Nov
-14
Dec-
14Ja
n-15
Feb-
15M
ar-1
5Ap
r-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug-
15Se
p-15
Oct-1
5
%
3M CD 3M CP
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 20: Flows into liquid funds remain volatile on institutional activity
-67,
318
100,
611
-52,
460
-50,
786
85,8
48
8,78
4
-112
,810
101,
592
-15,
657
-47,
330
-60,
861-5
,864
89,9
78
-70,
489
-200,000
-160,000
-120,000
-80,000
-40,000
0
40,000
80,000
120,000
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Net
Inflo
w (
| Cr
)
Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 21: AUM declines in September due to net outflow
2450
35
1845
25
2788
07
2281
49
1784
91
2653
58
2760
70
1625
62
2667
22
2538
99
2069
79
3007
38
2341
41
1785
07
80000
130000
180000
230000
280000
330000
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
| Cr
ore
Money Market
Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research
Preferred Picks
HDFC Cash Management Fund - Savings Plan SBI Magnum InstaCash Reliance Liquid Fund - Treasury Plan
(Refer to www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund)
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research
Page 15
Income funds In the income funds category, long term debt funds outperformed
delivering 11.5% absolute return in the last year (as on October 15, 2015). The recent 50 bps rate cut by RBI has boosted returns of long-term bond funds, including income and gilt medium and long-term funds
Amtek Auto's default on its loan repayment to JP Morgan and worries about the presence of stressed companies in fixed income portfolios triggered outflows from these funds. As a result, income funds witnessed an outflow of | 26717 crore during the month. At this juncture, credit opportunities funds should be avoided due to high credit risk of A rated papers. Instead, funds holding mainly AA and AAA rated papers pose good investment opportunity due to higher returns and low credit risk
Given the sharp rate cuts of 125 basis points this calendar year, it is believed that there may be an extended pause or another 25 basis points till March 2016. Hence, it may make sense to invest in a mix of short-term income funds and dynamic bond funds and avoid long duration gilt funds
Exhibit 22: Income funds witness strong outflows
-12,
696
-10,
567
15,4
46 19,8
44
-1,6
32
12,1
63
-152
-8,9
27 -2,5
10 4,20
5
5,86
1
-26,
717
21,7
13
12,6
71
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Net
Inflo
ws
(| .C
r)
Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 23: AUM declines
4611
14
4544
95
4759
68
5005
95
5021
54
5202
34
5223
66
5157
73
5146
28
5221
78
5289
00
5558
84
5495
63
5710
89
300000350000400000450000500000550000600000
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
| Cr
ore
Income
Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research
Recommended funds
Ultra Short Term Funds Birla Sun Life Savings Fund ICICI Prudential Flexible income
Short Term Funds Birla Sunlife short term fund HDFC Short Term Fund ICICI Pru Short Term Plan
Short Term Funds – Credit opportunities Birla Sunlife Short Term opportunities term HDFC Corporate debt opportunities ICICI Prudential Regular Savings
Long term/Dynamic Birla Sunlife income plus ICICI Prudential Dynamic Bond Fund IDFC dynamic bond fund
(Refer www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund)
View Ultra-short term: Positive
Short-term: Positive Long-term: Positive
Ultra-short-term fund returns are attractive on risk adjusted basis Short-term funds will benefit as the bond curve reverts to an upward slopping curve. Credit opportunities funds earn the highest accrual and are the best in the category Dynamic bond funds are suitable for all types of investors and for longer duration. They can take exposure to all durations as per the interest rate outlook and switch between G secs and corporate bonds
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research
Page 16
Gilt Funds In September 2015, gilt funds delivered 12.0% absolute return in the
last year, the highest among debt funds. We believe the odds remain in favour of the government securities yield trending down over the next one or two years. In the quarter gone by, 10 year G-sec yields have fallen 28 bps. While the spread between these instruments and repo rate was generally 40-50 bps, it is currently around 75 bps, meaning yields could slide further by 15-20 bps. However, gilt funds will be less attractive due to the longer holding period (more than three years) as lower accrual income will neutralise the impact of moderate capital gains in the near term
The 125 bps rate cut by the RBI in CY (2015) can push overall interest rates down depending on how soon banks transmit it into the system by repricing their assets and liabilities lower
The RBI has increased the FPI limit in government bonds to 5% of the total outstanding government securities in a staggered manner by March 2018. Currently, the FPI holding is at 3.8%. The change in FPI limits has further opened up room for | 1,20,000 crore in central government securities by March 2018. All these augur well for debt funds, especially duration funds
The central government has signed a memorandum with the RBI setting out a clear inflation objective to bring the inflation rate to the mid-point of the band of 4 +/- 2%. CPI, as per our assessment, should average close to 5% for FY16 (on assumption of normal monsoons and a stable currency). The government’s commitment towards controlling price shocks and steps taken to improve the supply chain are commendable. Also, global prices have corrected sharply and are supportive ranging from crude, metal to food prices. Hence, inflation should likely stay on the intended path. This creates room for the RBI to cut rates by another 100-150 bps in the long term to earn a real return of ~1.5-2%
On the supply front, the Budget has pegged the market borrowing for FY16 at | 6 lakh crore on a gross basis and | 4.56 lakh crore on a net basis (out of this, | 2.34 lakh crore through dated securities and | 15000 through gold bonds have been scheduled for H2FY16). Both gross and net market borrowings were close to market expectations. Borrowing related concern is expected to come down, given the government’s commitment towards reducing the fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP by FY17
Aggressive investors can invest in gilt funds with an investment horizon of one or two years
Recommended funds
Birla Sun Life Gilt Plus - PF Plan - Regular ICICI Prudential LT Gilt Fund - PF Option - Regular
(Refer to www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund)
View Short-term: Neutral Long-term: Neutral
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research
Page 17
Exhibit 24: Net inflows following recent 50 bps rate cut
-209
132 36
7
814
2090
1813 20
58
1439
164
875
-279
190
143
1183
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Net
Inflo
w (
| Cr
)
Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research
Page 18
Gold ETFs: Medium-term outlook remains benign Global gold prices traded in a narrow range during September 2015
after an extremely volatile August 2015. Uncertainty surrounding the US Fed rate hike, however, led to some volatility
Global gold prices traded in the range of US$1100 and US$1140 per ounce during September 2015. Indian prices following global prices traded between | 25700 and 26700 per 10 gram
The near term uncertainty surrounding China’s action and deferral of the US Fed rate hike may provide some support to global gold prices in the near term
Investment demand for gold is largely governed by the broader economic climate. One of the major determinants of investment demand is inflationary concerns. With a low global economic growth environment adding to deflationary pressure, inflationary demand factor for gold remains absent in the near term
Another major determinant for global gold prices is real interest rates. With the US Federal Reserve likely to raise interest rates, going forward, the opportunity cost of holding gold will increase while the same is likely to put pressure on gold prices from a medium-term perspective
Exhibit 25: International gold price subdued…
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
Jan-
14Fe
b-14
Mar
-14
Apr-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4Au
g-14
Sep-
14Oc
t-14
Nov
-14
Dec-
14Ja
n-15
Feb-
15M
ar-1
5Ap
r-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug-
15Se
p-15
Price ($/Ounce)
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 26: …domestic prices follows global trend
24000
26000
28000
30000
32000
34000M
ar-1
4
May
-14
Jul-1
4
Sep-
14
Nov
-14
Jan-
15
Mar
-15
May
-15
Jul-1
5
Sep-
15
|
Price (|/10 grams)
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 27: Outflows for second year….
-112
-47 -3
8 -32
-111
-131
-74
-111
-69
-86 -7
6
-50
-82
-57
-200
0
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Net
Inflo
w (
| Cr
)
Two years of outflow
Source: Amfi, ICICIdirect.com Research
Technically, after the multiyear bull phase during 2004-12, gold prices corrected significantly. The violation of the long term trend line highlights the breach of a decade long trend of outperformance and signals a period of medium-term consolidation
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research
Page 19
Model Portfolios
Equity funds model portfolio Investors who are wary of investing directly into equities can still get returns almost as good as equity markets through the mutual fund route. We have designed three mutual fund model portfolios, namely, conservative, moderate and aggressive mutual fund portfolios. These portfolios have been designed keeping in mind various key parameters like investment horizon, investment objective, scheme ratings, and fund management. We have changed the mutual funds portfolio in July, to include midcap funds as we believe an improvement in the growth scenario may generate better alpha in midcap stocks over large cap stocks Exhibit 28: Equity model portfolio Particulars Aggressive Moderate ConservativeReview Interval Monthly Monthly QuarterlyRisk Return High Risk- High Return Medium Risk -
Medium ReturnLow Risk - Low Return
Funds Allocation % AllocationFranklin India Prima Plus 20 20 20Birla Sunlife Frontline Equity 20 20 20ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan - - 20UTI Opportunites Fund - 20 20Reliance Long term Equity 20 - -ICICI Prudential Value Discovery 20 20 20HDFC Midcap Opportunities 20 20Grand Total(a+b) 100 100 100
Source: ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 29: Model portfolio performance : One year performance (as on September 30, 2015)
10%
7%
3%
-4%-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Aggressive Moderate Conservative BSE 100
%
Aggressive Moderate Conservative BSE 100
Source: Crisil Fund Analyser, ICICIdirect.com Research Portfolio inception date : April 15, 2009
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research
Page 20
Debt funds model portfolio We have designed three different mutual fund model portfolios for different investment duration namely less than six months, six months to one year and above one year. These portfolios have been designed keeping in mind various key parameters like investment horizon, interest rate scenarios, credit quality of the portfolio and fund management, etc.
Exhibit 30: Debt funds model portfolio
Particulars
0 – 6 months 6months - 1 Year Above 1 Year
Objective LiquidityLiquidity with
moderate return Above FDReview Interval Monthly Monthly Quarterly
Risk ReturnVery Low Risk - Nominal Return
Medium Risk - Medium Return
Low Risk - High Return
Funds AllocationUltra Short term FundsBirla SL Savings Fund 20ICICI Pru Flexible Income Plan 20Short Term Debt FundsBirla Sunlife Short Term Fund 20 20Birla Sunlife Short Term Opportunites Fund 20Reliance Regular Savingfs Fund 20HDFC Short Term Opportunities Fund 20 20ICICI Prudential Regular Savings 20ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund 20IDFC SSI Short Term 20 20UTI Short Term Income Fund 20Long Term/Dynamic Debt FundsBirla SL Income Plus 20IDFC Dynamic Bond fund 20Total 100 100 100
Time Horizon
% Allocation
Source: ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 32: Model portfolio performance
8.619.50 9.84
8.249.48
11.92
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
0-6 Months 6Months - 1Year Above 1yr
%
Portfolio Index
Source: Crisil Fund Analyser, , ICICIdirect.com Research
*Index: 0-6 month’s portfolio – Crisil Liquid Fund Index; 6 months-1 year – Crisil Short term Index Above 1 year: Crisil Composite Bond Index
Exhibit 31: What’s in - What’s Out What’s In What's Out
Franklin India Ultra Short Bond Fund
Reliance Regular Savings Birla SL Medium Term PlanFranklin India Short term Income FundHDFC Medium Term Opportunities FundSundaram Select Debt
Birla SL Income PlusLong Term/Dynamic Debt Funds
Ultra Short term Debt Funds
Short Term Debt Funds
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research
Page 21
Top Picks Exhibit 33: Category wise top picks
Category Top Picks
Largecaps Birla Sunlife Frontline equity Fund
ICICI Pru Focussed Bluechip Equity Fund
UTI Opportunities Fund
SBI Bluechip Fund
Midcaps HDFC Midcap Opportunities Fund
Franklin India Smaller Companies Fund
SBI Magnum Global Fund
Diversified Franklin India Prima Plus
Reliance Equity Opportunities
ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund
ELSS Axis Long Term Equity
ICICI Prudential Tax Plan
Franklin India Tax shield
Category Top Picks
Liquid Funds HDFC Cash Mgmnt Saving Plan
ICIC Pru Liquid Plan
Reliance Liquid Treasury Plan
Ultra Short Term Birla Sunlife Savings Fund
Reliance Medium Term Fund
ICICI Pru Flexible Income Plan
Short Term Birla Sunlife Short Term FundHDFC Short Term Opportunities Fund
ICICI Pru Short Term Plan
Credit Opportunities Fund Birla Sunlife Short Term Opportunities Plan
Reliance Regular Savings Fund
ICICI Prudential Regular Savings
Income Funds ICICI PrudenIncome Fund
Birla Sun Life Income Plus - Regular Plan
UTI Bond Fund
Gilts Funds ICICI Pru Gilt Inv. PF Plan
Birla Sunlife Constant Maturity 10 year
gilt plan
MIP Birla Sunlife Savings 5Aggressive ICICI Prudential MIP 25
Equity
Debt
(Refer www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund)
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research
Page 22
Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093
[email protected] Disclaimer ANALYST CERTIFICATION We Sachin Jain, CA, Sheetal Ashar, CA and Isha Bansal, MBA (Fin) Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or Funds. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Terms & conditions and other disclosures: ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) AMFI Regn. No.: ARN-0845. Registered office of I-Sec is at ICICI Securities Ltd. - ICICI Centre, H. T. Parekh Marg, Churchgate, Mumbai – 400020. India ICICI Securities Limited is a Sebi registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000990. ICICI Securities is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock broking and distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, distribution of financial products etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com. ICICI Securities is one of the leading distributors of Mutual Funds and participate in distribution of Mutual Fund Schemes of almost all AMCs in India. The selection of the Mutual Funds for the purpose of including in the indicative portfolio does not in any way constitute any recommendation by ICICI Securities Limited (hereinafter referred to as ICICI Securities) with respect to the prospects or performance of these Mutual Funds. The investor has the discretion to buy all or any of the Mutual Fund units forming part of any of the indicative portfolios on icicidirect.com. Before placing an order to buy the funds forming part of the indicative portfolio, the investor has the discretion to deselect any of the units, which he does not wish to buy. Nothing in the indicative portfolio constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to the investor's specific circumstances. The details included in the indicative portfolio are based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. The funds included in the indicative portfolio may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgement by any investor. The investor should independently evaluate the investment risks. ICICI Securities and affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this indicative portfolio. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. ICICI Securities may be holding all or any of the units included in the indicative portfolio from time to time as part of our treasury management. ICICI Securities Limited is not providing the service of Portfolio Management Services (Discretionary or Non Discretionary) to its clients. Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. Kindly note that such research recommended funds in indicative portfolio are not based on individual risk profile of each customer unless a customer has opted for a paid Investment Advisory Service offered by I-Sec. Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. The information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities Limited. The contents of this mail are solely for informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments or any other product. While due care has been taken in preparing this mail, I-Sec and affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of any inaccurate, delayed or incomplete information nor for any actions taken in reliance thereon. This mail/report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject I-Sec and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. ICICI Securities and/or its associates receive compensation/ commission for distribution of Mutual Funds from various Asset Management Companies (AMCs). ICICI Securities host the details of the commission rates earned by ICICI Securities from Mutual Fund houses on our website www.icicidirect.com. Hence, ICICI Securities or its associates may have received compensation from AMCs whose funds are mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for distribution of Mutual Funds or for providing marketing advertising support to these AMCs. ICICI Securities also provides stock broking services to institutional clients including AMCs. Hence, ICICI Securities may have received brokerage for security transactions done by any of the above AMCs during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report