WHAT, WHY, HOWEMPIRICAL, ETHICAL, AND POLITICAL APPROACHES TO CLIMATE CHANGE
ELKIN ISAAC SYMPOSIUM
APRIL 23, 2009
NATHAN DE WINKLE
THE QUESTIONS
• WHAT are the effects of CO2 emissions, and the global trends?
• WHY is this an issue we need to be faced?
• HOW can the world and its governments do to address the problem?
THE TREND
THE EFFECTS
• Seasonal shifts
• Flooding
• Crop failure
• A new ice age
THE ASSESSMENT
• “Taken as a whole, the range of published evidence indicates that the net damage costs of climate change are likely to be significant and to increase over time.” (IPCC 2007)
WILL IT CHANGE
• CO2 is emitted by nearly every human activity
• Environmental protection is a normal good
– SO2 in the United States
• The Environmental Kuznets Curve
ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE (EKC)
• Original theory was by Simon Kuznets in 1955
• Adapted for the environment by Thomas Panayotou in 1993
• Predicts an “inverted-u” relationship between GDP and level of a polutant
RESULTS: GERMANY2
2.5
33
.54
pce
mit
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year
GOAL OF RESEARCH
• Test the EKC as it relates to CO2 emissions.
• See if any nation has begun to lower their emissions.
• Determine if there is a global GDP threshold for an emissions turning point
[
PREVIOUS RESEARCH
• Arrow, et al; Stern, 1998; Stern & Common, 2001– Need to take policy decisions into account for
CO2
• Schalesse, 1998– There is evidence for EKC with CO2
• Moomaw, 1997; Cole, 2003– “No Income Determinism for CO2 Emissions”
– Thus EKCs have little predictive power
THEORETICAL MODEL
• CO2= f (GDP)
• CO2t = B1 + B2(GDPt) + B3(GDPt2)
+B4(GDPt3) …+By(GDPt
n)
EMPIRICAL MODEL
• Add indicator variables to control for historical events
– E.g. US presidential administrations
– The reform and opening up in China
DATA
• 5 countries– US, Germany, India, Brazil, China
• Left hand side variable– Per Capita Emissions: 1950-2004
• From Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center at Oak Ridge National Laboratory
• Right hand side variable– Per Capita GDP: 1950-2004
• From the Penn World Table v. 6.2
10
15
20
25
30
35
pcg
dp
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year
ADJUSTMENTS
• Need to be preformed to avoid auto-correlation:
• So applied a first differencing model
RESULTS
Country EKC?
GDP level for
Peak Emissions Reached?
United States Yes $42,912.00 No
Germany Yes $22,186.00 Yes
Brazil Yes $6,468.00 Yes
China No - -
India No - -
INDICATOR VARIABLES• US
– Presidential administrations• Carter (76-80)• Reagan/ G. H.W. Bush (81-92)• Clinton (93-00)• G. W. Bush (01-04)
• Germany– Reunification (1991)
• China– Political/ Economic changes
• Economic Reform & opening up (1980)• WTO membership
• Brazil– Switch to Ethanol (1975)
• India– The first trans-pacific fiber optic line (1994)
IMPROVED EXPLANITORY POWER
COUNTRY EXPLANATORYPOWER: ORIGINAL
EXPLANATORY POWER: INDICATOR
United States 48.94% 59.89%
Germany 21.94% 44.24%
Brazil 8.23% 15.71%
China 47.50% 52.73%
India 4.31% 6.84%
US4
4.5
55
.56
pce
mit
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year
CARTER
REAGAN BUSH I
CLINTON
BUSH II
GERMANY2
2.5
33
.54
pce
mit
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year
REUNIFCATION
CHINA-.
1
-8.9
4e
-09
.1.2
.3.4
dp
cem
it/d
pcg
dp
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year
dpcemit dpcgdp
REFORM & OPENING UP
WTO MEMBERSHIP
INDIA0
.1.2
.3.4
pce
mit/
Fitt
ed
va
lue
s
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000pcgdp
pcemit Fitted values
CONCLUSIONS FROM STATS
• While CO2, does follow the path of an EKC there is no simple casual relationship between GDP and emission levels.
• However, political and other historical events explain a countries emission pattern
WHY SHOULD I CARE
• The harm principle
• Polluting a Global Commons
• We are responsible for the problem
WHAT MUST BE DONE
• Realize that there is a problem, and take ownership of the caused harm
• This international problem requires an international conclusion
– Problems with Kyoto
• We need a true cap on emissions, and penalties for non compliance
WHAT DOES THIS LOOK LIKE?
• Cap and Trade, on local and international level
• Taxes
• Acting locally, know where your energy is coming from and what harms you are causing
“Think Globally and Act Locally”-Bill McKibben
THANK YOU
Special thanks to:Dr. Jahn HakesDr. Gene ClineMy parentsMy friends All of you