NATIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAM UPDATE
G A Y G I L B E R T , A D M I N I S T R A T O R U N E M P L O Y M E N T I N S U R A N C E U S D O L / E T A J U N E 2 7 , 2 0 1 8
UI NATIONAL UPDATE
v Program Highlights v Quick Look at the Data v Strategic Investments/Initiative v The New Permanent RESEA v FY 2018 Budget v What’s Next?
2
PROGRAM HIGHLIGHTS
v Lowest workload since the 60s v States experiencing constrained funding, limiting staff capacity v States continue to struggle with meeting performance standards
and integrity measures, and to successfully implement data validation
v Many , if not most, states are not ready for the next recession v IT modernization still needed in a majority of states v Disaster preparedness highlighted by 2017 hurricanes v RESEA is now codified in the Social Security Act
3
2017 HURRICANES
State/ Territory
FEMA Funding Disaster Related Claims
Total # DUA Claims # Regular UI Claims
# Total Claims
Puerto Rico $14,349,978 ---* ---* 11,592
Florida $6,747,422 7,237 35,160 42,397
Texas $25,488,162 26,284 143,068 169,352
Georgia $331,085 314 2,410 2,724
Virgin Islands $2,825,640** 1,493*** 2,462***
4
HURRICANE TAKEAWAYS
v Many/most, states have not automated the DUA program
v State redundant systems are not sufficient v Alternative solutions for supporting states with
significant damage are needed § Ex: Ability for “helper” state(s) to access the
disaster state’s system to support claims taking v And hurricane season is upon us once again
5
A Quick Look at the Data
6
7 Source: USDOL/BLS
Unemployment Rates by State Seasonally Adjusted, April 2017
(U.S. = 3.9%)
Rates in %0 to 33 to 44 to 55 to 8
Source: US DOL/BLS and US DOL/Office of Unemployment Insurance
8
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1973
19
74
1975
19
76
1977
19
78
1979
19
80
1981
19
82
1983
19
84
1985
19
86
1987
19
88
1989
19
90
1991
19
92
1993
19
94
1995
19
96
1997
19
98
1999
20
00
2001
20
02
2003
20
04
2005
20
06
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
Firs
t Pay
men
ts
Tota
l Une
mpl
oym
ent R
ate
(%)
First Payments in the Regular Program
TUR (L)
First Payments (Moving Average, R)
Source: US DOL/BLS and US DOL/Office of Unemployment Insurance
0.00
4.00
8.00
12.00
16.00
20.00
24.00
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1973
19
74
1975
19
76
1977
19
78
1979
19
80
1981
19
82
1983
19
84
1985
19
86
1987
19
88
1989
19
90
1991
19
92
1993
19
94
1995
19
96
1997
19
98
1999
20
00
2001
20
02
2003
20
04
2005
20
06
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
Aver
age
Dur
atio
n (W
eeks
)
Tota
l Une
mpl
oym
ent R
ate
(%)
Average Duration on UI in the Regular Program
TUR (L)
Average Duration (R)
10
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1978
19
79
1980
19
81
1982
19
83
1984
19
85
1986
19
87
1988
19
89
1990
19
91
1992
19
93
1994
19
95
1996
19
97
1998
19
99
2000
20
01
2002
20
03
2004
20
05
2006
20
07
2008
20
09
2010
20
11
2012
20
13
2014
20
15
2016
20
17
Calendar Year
U.S. Recipiency Rates (All Programs, Annual, 1978 - 2017)
11
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
ND
MN
IA
MA VT
HI
NJ
MT CT
WI RI
PA
CA
IL
AK
ME ID
NY
DC
WY
OR MI
WV DE
WA
OH
MO
NV NE KY
KS
IN
CO
AR
MD
NH TX
UT AL
SD
NM
OK VA
SC
TN
MS
GA
LA
AZ
NC FL
InsuredUne
mployed
/TotalUne
mployed
(%)
States
FirstQuarter2018RecipiencyRate(InsuredUnemployed/TotalUnemployed)
Average:32.6%
Stateswithunder26weeksofUnemploymentCompensationAvailable
28StatesareundertheAverageRecipiencyRate
Source: US DOL/BLS and US DOL/Office of Unemployment Insurance
12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1973
19
74
1975
19
76
1977
19
78
1979
19
80
1981
19
82
1983
19
84
1985
19
86
1987
19
88
1989
19
90
1991
19
92
1993
19
94
1995
19
96
1997
19
98
1999
20
00
2001
20
02
2003
20
04
2005
20
06
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
Exha
usio
nt R
ate
(%)
Tota
l Une
mpl
oym
ent R
ate
(%)
Exhaustion Rate in the Regular Program
TUR (L) Exhaustion Rate (R)
TOTAL BORROWING OVER TIME AND PROJECTED BORROWING THROUGH END OF FY
2020
13
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bill
ions
$
End of FY Borrowing
Actual Forecast
Private Borrowing Private Borrowing Forecast
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1980
19
81
1982
19
83
1984
19
85
1986
19
87
1988
19
89
1990
19
91
1992
19
93
1994
19
95
1996
19
97
1998
19
99
2000
20
01
2002
20
03
2004
20
05
2006
20
07
2008
20
09
2010
20
11
2012
20
13
2014
20
15
2016
20
17
2018
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
%
Thou
sand
s
Weeks Claimed, Civilian Labor Force, and TUR
Civilian Labor Force (R)
TUR (L)
Weeks Claimed (R)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5 OR
W
Y VT
MS UT
SD
N
E OK
AK
ID
M
T IA
LA
WA
NC
ME PR
H
I N
M
DC KS
AR
FL
N
H G
A MI
NV VA
MN
TN
AL
N
D
MD
SC
W
I M
O RI
CO
DE NJ
AZ
KY
PA
IL
CT
NY
MA
WV IN
OH
TX
CA
VI
Average High Cost Multiple, 2007 & 2017*
AHCM 2007
AHCM 2017
Source: DOL/OUI * 2017 AHCM is Preliminary
16
Trust Fund Solvency Report This annual publication provides an opportunity to evaluate and compare each state’s Unemployment Insurance trust fund reserve. Highlights form the 2018 report include:
• 24 states have reached what is considered the minimal level of adequate solvency
• As of Dec 2017, one state and one jurisdiction still had outstanding Federal loans and face a potential FUTA credit reduction in 2018
• Three states have outstanding private borrowing of over $3.9 Bil.
• For 2018 thirty states meet the eligibility criteria for interest-free borrowing
• The report can be found here: https://oui.doleta.gov/unemploy/docs/trustFundSolvReport2018.pdf
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APPROPRIATIONS FOR STATE UI ADMINISTRATION PER 2.0 MILLION AWIU
Adjusted into constant 2005 dollars
Dashed Line displays inclusion of Y2K funds in FY98 and FY99
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
$ B
illio
ns
Fiscal Year
18
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
5001994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Millions
FiscalYear
StateSupplementalFundingforUI
Source:NationalAssociationofStateWorkforceAgencies
19
20
21
IPIA UI IMPROPER PAYMENT RATE Improper Payments Information Act
(7/1/2016 – 6/30/2017)
22
Estimated Overpayment Rate (OP) 12.11%
Estimated Underpayment Rate (UP) 0.39%
Total Improper Payment Rate (OP + UP) 12.50%
Total Estimated Amount Improperly Paid $4.066 B
Dollar amounts are in billions.
Reported in the 2017 DOL Agency Financial Report
23 Overpayment Root Causes by Percentage of Dollars Overpaid July 1, 2016 – June 30, 2017
UI IMPROPER PAYMENT RATE
24
IPIA2013adjustedrateforrecoveries=9.32%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014 2015 2016 2017
FraudandNonfraudOverpayments,andUnderpayments
Fraud Nonfraud Underpayment
UI INTEGRITY CENTER v National Integrity Training Academy v Integrity Knowledge Exchange
v Best/Promising Practices v Model BPC Operations Blueprint v State Integrity Services/Business Process Analysis
v Integrity Data Hub v Suspicious Actor Repository v External Data Cross-match (Identity Verification)
v Data Analytics Tool v State Consultation/Business Process Analysis v Behavioral Insights Messaging Tools
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STATE INFORMATION DATA EXCHANGE SYSTEM (SIDES)
v SIDES Employer Response Study (November 2017) § Evaluated the quality of employer responses to initial requests received
via SIDES to those not using SIDES § Five states participated in the Study § Quality scores were significantly higher for SIDES (91.75 percent) and E-
Response (94.64 percent) compared to initial claims using non-SIDES methods (63.34 percent)
§ Employer response rates higher for SIDES (100 percent) and E-Response (99.73 percent) versus non-SIDES methods (81.35 percent)
v Commitment to Continuous Improvement § April 2018 Symposium Sessions for States and Employers § April 2018 SIDES messaging toolkit released § June 2018 national webinar for states planned
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UI INTEGRITY LEGISLATIVE PACKAGE
v In ETA’s FY2018 and FY 2019 Budgets v Require States to use SIDES v Require cross match with SSA’s/other prisoner database v Allow the Secretary of Labor greater authority to require UI
corrective actions v Allow States to retain up to 5 percent of UI over-payments for
program integrity use v Require States to use penalty and interest collections solely for UI
administration
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REEMPLOYMENT SERVICES & ELIGIBILITY ASSESSMENT PROGRAM (RESEA) Codified in Section 306 of SSA, Bipartisan Budget Act (PL 115-123)
Summary: RESEAs are in-person meetings between a UI claimant and appropriately trained AJC Staff Member intended to:
1. Reduce UI claim duration through improved employment outcomes by providing labor market and career information, a reemployment plan, providing information and access to reemployment services through American Job Centers, and, as needed, referrals to training and education
2. Ensure UI program integrity by assessing and confirming the continued UI eligibility of RESEA participants.
Availability: This voluntary program currently operates in 52 states and jurisdictions.
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MEASURING SUCCESS FOR RESEA
v Improving employment outcomes of individuals receiving UI and to reducing the average duration of receipt of benefits
v Strengthening program integrity and reducing improper payments through detection and prevention of improper payments
v Promoting alignment with the broader vision of WIOA of increased program integration and service delivery
v Establishing RESEA as an entry point for UI claimants into other workforce system partners programs.
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NEW PROVISIONS IN THE RESEA LAW v Requirement for a State Plan
• Assurances of proper notice & consequences for non-participation, reasonable scheduling, description of RESEA activities, how the state’s program will meet the evidence requirements in the statute, and information from evaluations conducted
v New Funding Formula to be developed with State consultation
v Requirement to Use Interventions/Service Delivery Strategies that are Evidence-based
v Use of a percentage of the funds to reward states with strong performance in reducing
30
RESEA EVIDENCE REQUIREMENTS
v Modeled after legislation for HHS home visiting program.
v States must use grant funds only for interventions/service delivery strategies demonstrated to reduce claim duration by improving employment outcomes for participants.
v To expand the scope of evidence-based interventions, beginning in 2023, states must use a certain percentage of funds (the % ratchets up in future years) for interventions with a high or moderate causal evidence ratings that show demonstrated capacity to improve employment and earnings outcomes for participants.
v Also, beginning in 2023, any state interventions without a high or moderate causal evidence rating must be under evaluation at the time of use. States may use up to 10% of their funding for this purpose.
31
FUNDING PROVISIONS
v For Fiscal Years 2022 – 2027, Congress is authorized to make adjustments to the discretionary spending limits, the allocations to the Committees on Appropriations, and the appropriate budget aggregates to reflect additional new budget authority. Adjustments may not be made in excess of: v FY 2022 - $133 million v FY 2023 - $258 million v FY 2024 - $433 million v FY 2025 - $533 million v FY 2026 - $608 million v FY 2027 - $633 million
v Through use of a “cap adjustment,” authorizes (but does not necessarily appropriate) significant funding increases (from $117 million baseline) overtime as result of expected savings due to reduced duration v FY 2019 - $33 million increase v FY 2020 - $58 million increase v FY 2021 - $83 million increase
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OTHER REEMPLOYMENT STRATEGIES
v My Reemployment Plan https://rc.workforcegps.org/resources/2016/10/03/05/28/My_Reemployment_Plan v Workforce Connect Tools Next Steps http://itsc.org/Pages/WF_Connect.aspx
v My Reemployment Plan Online v Case Management Module
v Pathway to Reemployment Framework – Improving State Work Search Requirements
https://rc.workforcegps.org/resources/2016/10/03/05/36/Pathway_to_Reemployment_Framework
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FY 2019 PRESIDENT’S BUDGET
v Administrative Funding v Integrity Center v Integrity Proposal v Paid Parental Leave
34
WHAT’S NEXT?
v RESEA Implementation v Continued focus on UI improper payments v New NPRM on Drug Testing Expected Soon v Work Search Guidance v UI ITSC under new leadership (Ben Peirce) and refocusing on
ways to support UI IT modernization v Work to modernize the Interstate Connection Network (ICON) Hub
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???QUESTIONS??? COMMENTS
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