Изменения климата в Изменения климата в Climate change in Climate change in высокогорье Средней Азии высокогорье Средней Азии в конце в конце XXXX векавека
high mountains of high mountains of Central Asia in the Central Asia in the end of XXth centuryend of XXth centuryend of XXth centuryend of XXth century
G. Glazirin, U. TajibayevaG. Glazirin, U. TajibayevaГ.Е. Глазырин, У.У. ТаджибаеваГ.Е. Глазырин, У.У. Таджибаева
National University of Uzbekistan, National University of Uzbekistan, TashkentTashkent
Национальный Университет Национальный Университет Узбекистана, ТашкентУзбекистана, Ташкент
Main topicsMain topicsMain topicsMain topics
Unexpected regularities in climate Unexpected regularities in climate change over the mountainous Central change over the mountainous Central Asia.Asia.
Some data on real climate changeSome data on real climate changeSome data on real climate change Some data on real climate change in XXI century.in XXI century.
Consequences for change of Consequences for change of glaciation area and runglaciation area and run offoffglaciation area and runglaciation area and run--off.off.
Mountains of the former Soviet Central AsiaMountains of the former Soviet Central Asia
Ti ShTi ShTien ShanTien Shan
HissarHissar AlayAlay
Western Tien ShanWestern Tien Shan
HissarHissar--AlayAlay
The PamirsThe PamirsThe PamirsThe Pamirs
AfghanistanAfghanistan
Data setData setfor the whole Central Asiafor the whole Central Asiafor the whole Central Asiafor the whole Central Asia
Data from 39 meteorological stations located Data from 39 meteorological stations located ggabove 1.5 km over the whole Central Asia;above 1.5 km over the whole Central Asia;
Data on annual precipitation, summer and winter Data on annual precipitation, summer and winter air temperature for 1961air temperature for 1961--1990 were used;1990 were used;
Linear trends of for all stations Linear trends of for all stations l l t dl l t d
y = 0.015x ‐ 25.959
5.0
6.0
were calculated.were calculated.
3.0
4.0
5.0
Example: Tien Shan StationExample: Tien Shan Station2.0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Example: Tien Shan Station, Example: Tien Shan Station, summer air temperature.summer air temperature.Trend is equal to 0.015 oC/y.Trend is equal to 0.015 oC/y.
Summer air temperature trends Summer air temperature trends i t i f C t l A ii t i f C t l A iin mountains of Central Asia in mountains of Central Asia
(*1000 (*1000 ooC/y)C/y)
19611961 199019901961 1961 -- 19901990
Winter air temperature trends in Winter air temperature trends in t i f C t l A it i f C t l A imountains of Central Asia mountains of Central Asia
(*1000 (*1000 ooC/y)C/y)
19611961 199019901961 1961 -- 19901990
Annual precipitation trends in Annual precipitation trends in t i f C t l A it i f C t l A imountains of Central Asia mountains of Central Asia
( %/y)( %/y)
19611961 199019901961 1961 -- 19901990
Data set for Data set for Western periphery of CentralWestern periphery of CentralWestern periphery of Central Western periphery of Central
Asian mountainsAsian mountains
Data from 21 meteorological stations Data from 21 meteorological stations located at the Western periphery of located at the Western periphery of Central Asian mountains were used;Central Asian mountains were used;
Data for 36 years (1970Data for 36 years (1970--2005) were 2005) were collected.collected.
Linear trends of for all Linear trends of for all stations were calculated;stations were calculated;
Dependences of trends on altitude (Z)Dependences of trends on altitude (Z)Annual air temperature
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
end,
o C/y
1970 1970 -- 20052005
Example:Example: LongLong--term change of theterm change of the
Change of air temperature vertical gradientChange of air temperature vertical gradient0.00
0.01
0.02
0 1 1 2 2 3
Z, km
Tre
Sum m er (Jun-Aug) air tem perature
0 00
0.02
0.04
end,
o C/y
Example:Example: LongLong term change of the term change of the gradients between gradients between Kaunchi St. (0.34 km) Kaunchi St. (0.34 km) and Oigaing St. (2.15 km).and Oigaing St. (2.15 km).
-0.02
0.00
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5Z, km
Tre
-5.0
-4.0
Annual precipitation
0.8
1.2
Tren
d, %
/y
-7.0
-6.0
Gra
d, o C/
km
TsumTwin
0.0
0.4
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5Z, km
T
-8.01970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Data set Data set f l ti f t d li t hf l ti f t d li t hfor evaluation of present day climate change for evaluation of present day climate change
at Western periphery of Central Asian mountainsat Western periphery of Central Asian mountains
Data from 17 meteorological stations were used;Data from 17 meteorological stations were used;
Data for 2000Data for 2000--2008 were collected;2008 were collected;
Average for all station annual deviations of air temperature and Average for all station annual deviations of air temperature and annual precipitation from mean for 2000annual precipitation from mean for 2000--2008 were calculated;2008 were calculated;annual precipitation from mean for 2000annual precipitation from mean for 2000--2008 were calculated;2008 were calculated;
Linear trends of for all stations were calculated.Linear trends of for all stations were calculated.
Present day climate change Present day climate change at Western periphery of Central Asian mountainsat Western periphery of Central Asian mountainsat Western periphery of Central Asian mountainsat Western periphery of Central Asian mountains
0.4
Annual air temperatureAnnual air temperature
140
Annual precipitationAnnual precipitation
-0.2
0.0
0.2
dTan
, oC
80
100
120
P, %
-0.6
-0.4
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
60
80
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
1
2
Winter air temperatureWinter air temperature
1.0
1.5
Summer air temperatureSummer air temperature
-3
-2
-1
0dT
win
, oC
-0.5
0.0
0.5
dTsu
m, o
C
-42000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
-1.02000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Present day climate change Present day climate change at Western periphery of Central Asian mountainsat Western periphery of Central Asian mountainsat Western periphery of Central Asian mountainsat Western periphery of Central Asian mountains
0.02
(dependence of trends on altitude)(dependence of trends on altitude)
-0.04
-0.02
0.00
Tren
d, o
C/y
Annual air temperatureAnnual air temperature
Summer air temperatureSummer air temperature
-0.08
-0.06
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5Z, km
Annual precipitationAnnual precipitation
0.30 2
y0.10
0.20
Tren
d, o
C/y
-2
0
Tren
d, %
/y
0.000.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Z, km
-40.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Z, km
Glaciation area changeGlaciation area change
230
250
Sokh River basinSokh River basin
190
210
230
Fg, k
m^2
1701950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
55
60
65
2
40
45
50
Fg, k
m^
Oigaing River basinOigaing River basin
351930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
LongLong--term water resources changeterm water resources change(by Yu. Ivanov)(by Yu. Ivanov)(by Yu. Ivanov)(by Yu. Ivanov)
River Gouging st Watershed Mean annual Glaciation
area rate
Fraction of glacial River Gouging st. area, km2 runoff,
m3/s
area rate, % (1960) feeding, %
(1960)
Syrdarya Bekabad 142,000 829 1.8 7y y ,
Amudarya Kerki 309,000 2070 ~2.6 9
2000
2500
3000
3500
off,
m3/
s
0
500
1000
1500
000
Ann
ual r
uno
01900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Years
Thank you for kind attention!Thank you for kind attention!