Side Event, COP23, Bonn – 15 November 2017
Nebojsa NakicenovicDeputy Director GeneralInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Professor Emeritus of Energy EconomicsVienna University of Technology
The World in 2050
Side Event, COP23, Bonn – 15 November 2017
Nebojsa NakicenovicDeputy Director GeneralInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Professor Emeritus of Energy EconomicsVienna University of Technology
The World in 2050: Grand Transformation Toward Sustainable Future for All
2017 #3Nakicenovic
Limiting global
warming to
“well below”
2 degrees celsius
Achieving net-zero
GHG emissions by mid of
the 21st century
Regular review and
improvement of nationally
determined contributions
Mobilizing $100
billion a year in
support by 2020
through 2025
TheParisAgreement
Bildq
uelle
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s://w
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mo.in
t/med
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Source: Schellnhuber, 2016
Rockström,Gaffney,Rogelj,Meinshausen,Nakicenovic,Schellnhuber.Science24March2017
“Carbon Law”
Rockström,Gaffney,Rogelj,Meinshausen,Nakicenovic,Schellnhuber.Science24March2017
“Carbon Law”
Rockström,Gaffney,Rogelj,Meinshausen,Nakicenovic,Schellnhuber.Science24March2017
“Carbon Law”
Rockström,Gaffney,Rogelj,Meinshausen,Nakicenovic,Schellnhuber.Science24March2017
“Carbon Law”
Rockström,Gaffney,Rogelj,Meinshausen,Nakicenovic,Schellnhuber.Science24March2017
“Carbon Law”
IUCN, 2017 #9Nakicenovic Rockström
Source: Modi, 2011 and Yumkella, 2013
Wood for Cooking
IUCN, 2017 #10Nakicenovic Rockström
Source: Modi, 2011
Mobile Phones Charging
2017 #11
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
OnlyEnergySecurity OnlyAirPollutionandHealth OnlyClimateChange AllThreeObjectives
TotalG
lobalPolicyC
osts(201
0-2030)
Source: McCollum et. al, 2012; IPCC, 2014
Multiple Benefits of Integrated Policies
2017 #12Nakicenovic
2017 #13
Sankt. Petersburg Airport Duty Free
2017 #14Nakicenovic
Vision: Sustainable Future
Tran
sfor
mat
ion
Diff
usio
n
Legitimacy of BAU eroding
Source: After WBGU, 2011
The World in 2050 (TWI2050.com)“Doing More with Less” within Planetary Boundaries
2030 2050
Target space 2050+ →
← Target space 2030
One “backcasting” storyline and many transformational pathways
2017 #15Nakicenovic 15
1850 19501900 2000 2050
Source: After Granger Morgan, 2013
Transformational Change
2017 #16Nakicenovic 2017 #16Nakicenovic 16
Darum geht zu allen Völkern […] und lehrt sie alles zu befolgen was ich Euch geboten habe. Seid gewiss: Ich bin bei euch alle Tage bis ans Ende der Welt.
Disruptive Change
Source: Campanale, Carobntracker
