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New Mega Trends in the United States
Impact of Mega Trends on the Future of Mobility
NCDD-18
September 2013
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Contents
Section Slide Numbers
Executive Summary 4
Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and Methodology 12
Definitions Used in the Study 18
Mega Trend 1: Urbanization - 'City as a Customer' 20
Mega Trend 2: Smart is the New Green 30
Mega Trend 3: Social Trends 35
Mega Trend 4: Connectivity & Convergence 44
Mega Trend 5: Bricks and Clicks 51
Mega Trend 6: Innovating to Zero 61
Mega Trend 7: New Business Models: Value for Many 64
Mega Trend 8: Economic Trends 69
Mega Trend 9: Health, Wellness and Wellbeing 73
Mega Trend 10: Future Of Mobility 78
Conclusion 92
Appendix 96
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Executive Summary
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New Mega Trends—North America: Top Mega Trends Covered in
Frost & Sullivan Research
What is a Mega Trend?
Mega Trends are transformative, global
forces that define the future world with their
far reaching impacts on businesses,
societies, economies, cultures, and
personal lives.
Why do Mega Trends matter?
• Mega Trends have diverse meanings and impacts for different industries, companies, and individuals. An analysis of these Mega Trends and their implications forms an important component of a company’s future strategy, development, and innovation process, and impacts product and technology planning.
• The following research service sets the stage for visionary thinking by identifying the most important global Mega Trends that will significantly impact urban logistics and the implications of these Mega Trends for transforming society, markets, and cultures.
Global Mega Trends
Urbanization
—City as a
Customer
Social
Trends Innovating to
Zero
New Business
Models
Health,
Wellness, and
Well Being
Future of
Mobility
Economic
Trends
Connectivity
and
Convergence
Bricks and
Clicks
Smart is the New
Green
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Executive Summary—Key Findings
Source: Frost & Sullivan
1
4
3
5
2
Approximately 85% of the total population in the United States will live in urban regions by 2025,
and US cities will expand to form Mega Regions and Mega Corridors. North America could see 3
Mega Cities, 11 Mega Region, and 7 Smart Cities by 2025.
In 2020, people above the age of 65 will account for nearly one-fifth of the population. Currently,
more than 60% of new car purchases are made by people over 50 years of age.
Increased connectivity among vehicles and road infrastructure will improve road safety, traffic
congestion and reduce emissions. It paves the way for adoption of autonomous driving
technologies. In the US market, vehicle-to vehicle (V2V) technology will see commercialization and
increased market acceptance between 2015 and 2020 while infrastructure for the vehicle-to
infrastructure (V2I) technology will become popular between 2020 and 2025.
The demand for seamless navigation, telematics, and entertainment drives the growth of
connectivity in cars. By 2020, 90% of new cars will have some form of in-vehicle connectivity.
By 2025, 20% of global retailing will happen through online channels. It is expected that by 2015,
more than 50% of global new car sales will be influenced by the Web, through online promotions,
online research, the virtual showroom experience, and online purchasing.
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Vancouver
San
Francisco
Seattle
Los
Angeles
Calgary Toronto
New York
Chicago
Urbanization—North America to See 8 SMART Cities by 2025 Most of pilot projects, innovation, and leadership in the Smart Cities space are taking place in North America.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
North America will lead the world in new smart
energy capacity in the next 3 years. The United
States will lead the smart grid market in the next 3
years with a compound annual growth rate
(CAGR) of 30%–35%.
The smart technology market in North America
will grow by 40% by 2015. Nearly 35 smart
technology projects are underway in North
America.
The smart building market opportunity is
expected to peak in 2020. North America
accounted for 29% of the smart building market
in 2011 and is estimated to account for 30%–
35% in next few years.
The United States is expected to lead in the
smart transport market in North America. It plans
to be the world's largest real-world test of smart-
vehicles.
Smart Cities, North America, 2025
Smart City
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Outside the vehicle
sensors, V2V, V2I,
V2H, D2D, ADAS,
crowd sourcing, cloud
interaction
Personal media such
as iPod, iPhone, iPad
bridging digital life
style gaps in the car
Device connectivity
both for content and
data pipe (tethered
connectivity model)
Partnerships with
Toyota, Ford and now
Nissan for cloud
usage
Within the vehicle:
multimodal HMI*—
concerned with
presentation of
information to user
Eco-driving aids
eco driving analysis
and information
presentation to
driver
*HMI Human Machine Interface
Note: Images are only for illustration. Source: Frost & Sullivan
Smart is the New Green—Smart Car The Smart Cloud is critical among the six key pillars of the smart car definition.
Pillars of Smart Car Definition, US, 2012
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Social Mega Trends—New Car Registrations by Age Group Baby boomers will continue to drive automotive demand in the United States.
39% 37%
24%
40%
36%
24%
48%
33%
20%
62%
24%
13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
50 and older 35-49 18-34
2001 2002 2007 2012
New Car Registrations by Age Group, US, 2001, 2002, 2007, and 2012
Note: Because of rounding the percentages may not add up to 100. Source: J.D Powers; Frost & Sullivan
Boomers account
for 62% of the
vehicles sold in the
US in 2012
compared to 39% in
2001.
Buyers aged
between 18 and 34
are currently only
13% of the new-car
market, down from
24% in 2001.
Pe
rce
nta
ge o
f N
ew
Car
Reg
istr
ati
on
s
Age Group
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Bricks and Clicks—Current Digital Car Retailing Trends in North
America
Digital Within Existing Model
Unlike Europe, North American OEMs and dealers are
pursuing digitization models through existing stores.
Significant investments are being made in updating the
store technology, training the staff, and digitally integrating
various aspects of the car retailing process
Greater focus on off-store digitization
While some investment is being made in in-store tools
such as tablets and kiosks, the key focus remains on the
utilization and recalibration of off-store digital media such as
websites, apps, and social media
Lead Generation Key Digitization Objective
Dealers are not using online and mobile platforms to sell
vehicles. Rather, these media serve as the first touch point with the consumer. The key objective continues to be to attract the consumer to the
dealership
Source: Frost & Sullivan
The evolutionary approach to technology in digital retailing dominates in North America.
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For More Information:
Jeannette Garcia
Corporate Communications
Automotive & Transportation
(210) 477-8427