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No Alarming Sea Level Rise Nature
against IPCC Observations vsModels
Nils-Axel Mrner
Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics, Stockholm, Sweden
President INQUA Com. on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution (1999-2003)
Leader ofthe Maldives Sea Level Project(2000-2009+) Co-
ordinator INTAS project on Geomagnetism and Climate (1997-2003)
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most Changes have Pros and Cons
Global Warming in particular
but there is nothing good to come from
A Rapid Sea Level Rise
Therefore this is
the Only Real Threat
though, in fact,
Utterly Wrong !
quod erat demonstrandum
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This is what it is all about
Observational facts or Model output
?
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the motivation behind sea level claims differs significantly
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We have done very detailed sea level studis in
The Maldives
(doomed to be flooded in 50-100 years)
sea has been higher before
sea fell ~20 cm in the 1970s sea has remained stable for the last 30 years
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Sea level changes in the Maldives from 1500 to 2009 and 2100
No reasons for any alarm. Sea
level has been stable for the last 30 years. Maximum future
change may be a return to a pre-1970 level
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Presidentin water
Cabinet under water
Past-Present-Future sea level changes
no threat at all !
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I recently investigated the situation in Bangladesh
(Energy & Environment, 21:3, 49-63, 2010)
Bangladesh
(doomed to experience terrible disasters)
sea is not rising, but stable
it even fell a little some 40-50 years ago
similar trends are recorded in India and
the Maldives
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Coastal Erosion !Sea is Rising !
The IPCCers say
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Coastal Erosion yesBut No Rise in Sea Level
As clearly indicated by the root system
spreading horizontally at
just the same level as in the forest behind
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Sea Level Changes in Bangladesh
There is no global sea level rise in Bangladesh
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A presently ongoing rapid sea level rise has been claimed for
Tuvalu and Vanuatu
the truth is quite different:
sea has remained stable in Tuvalu
sea has also remained stable in Vanuatu
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Tuvalu tide gauge record
8 years of slow rise (instalaton subsidence?) is followed by
22 years of stability i.e. no sea level risethe 3 low levels represent ENSO-events
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North-west Europe isanother excellent test area
there is a eustatic curve for 1690-1970 sea has not risen in the last 40-50 years
No Rapid Sea Level Rise can
be traced
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Eustatic curve 1680-1970 (for NW Europe)
(from Mrner, 1973)
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From 1840 t0 1940 sea level rose by 11 cm blue line
the Earths rate of rotation (LOD) 10 cm green
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COXAHVEN 160 YEARS TIDE-GAUGE RECORD
A mean-sinosidal relative sea level rise is composed of a
long-term subsidence (red) of ~1.4 mm/year and a
sinosoidal eustatic rise up to 1960 followed by a slight lowering
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Satellite AltimetryA wonderful new tool to measure the
ocean level but
from where does the tilt come?
in 2000: variability around a stable zero
in 2003: a tilt of 2.3 mm/yrs
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Satelite Altimetry
by 2000 a stable trend
by 2003 a rising trend
due to personal calibration
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It exhibits a clear dominance of the 18.6 years tidal cycle
around a stable zero-level
50 years sea level record from French Guiana-Surinam
Satellite altimitry gives a rise of ~3 mm/yr in this area
there is a message in the difference
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The rate of glacial eustatic rise
after LGM was ~10 mm/yr and
sets the ultimate limit of
possible sea level changes in thepresent century (yellow).
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Thermal Expansion
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CONCLUSIONSNo sea level rise recorded:
in the Maldives in Tuvalu
in Vanuatu
in Bangladesh
in Qatar
in Venice
in NW Europe
Thermalexpansion is
small
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A: sea level changes based on observational facts B:
selected tide-gauge records (IPCC) C:
Topex/Poseidon record after personal calibration
D: Topex/Poseidon withoutpersonal calibration
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If sea level would be rapidly rising following the law of angular
momentum the Earth should experience a deceleration. This is
NOT the case Why is this?
because Sea is Not Rising of course
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CONCLUSIONS
the observational records (curve
A) is correct the IPCC models (curves B-C)are wrong
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without a flooding conceptthere is not much of a threat left in IPCC
the tiger has lost its teeth
maybe it was not even a real tiger
just a blown-up balloon-dummy
D t th t i fl ti f th t
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Dont worry, my son, the present is a reflection of the past
nothing more, nothing less just the same old story
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190 peer-reviewed papers on Sea Level & Climate out of 534 papers totally
Mrner, N.-A., 2007
The Greatest Lie Ever Told.1st ed. 2007, 2nd ed. 2009, 3rd ed. 2010, 20 pp.
for saleduring the meeting
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References(just a few selected)
Mrner, N.-A., 2004. Changing sea levels. In:Encyclopedia of Coastal Sciences(M. Schwartz, Ed.), p. 229-232.
Mrner, N.-A., 2004. Estimating future sea level changes. Global PlanetaryChange, 40, 49-54.
Mrner, N.-A., 2007. Sea level changes and tsunamis, environmental stress andmigration overseas. The case of the Maldives and Sri Lanka. Internationales
Asienforum, 38, 353-374.
Mrner, N.-A. 2010. Some problems in the reconstruction of mean sea level andits changes with time. Quaternary International, on line January 25, 2010.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2009.10.044
Mrner, N.-A., 2010. Sea level changes in Bangladesh. New observational facts.Energy & Environment, 21:3, 49-63.
Mrner, N.-A., 2010. Solar Minima, Earths Rotation and Little Ice Ages in thePast and in the Future. The North Atlantic European case. Global PlanetaryChange, in press. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.01.004
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2009.10.044http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.01.004http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.01.004http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2009.10.044