1
#NoEstimatesRobert Weißgraeber
TYPO3 Conference 2013Stuttgart, 30st Oct
2
/meRobert WeißgraeberPrincipal @ aexea
3
communication. content. consulting.
/me@robert_we
4coffee image: epsos.de
#foodkoma
#NoEstimates as a hashtag
5
6
why do we estimate?
7
(1)
typical questions to be answered
"when will it be finished?"
"when do you have feature X ready?"
"what does it cost?"
8
abstractionneed to know about cost to make decision
need to know some numbers to make a plan
9
customer value?how can we do it?
how can we do better?
why estimates cause problems.
10
(2)
time vs. effort:your mileage may vary
time, as in effort of a task, can not be compared
between people
individual productivity may vary
duration depends on lots of factors: resources, task-switching
requirements get stale
11
„Work expands so as to fillthe time
available for its completion.“
Parkinsown‘s Law
12Cyril Northcote Parkinson, 1955
estimates are muda (waste)a number has no intrinsic value for your software
Lean: „...any human activity that absorbs resources but creates no value.“
Principles behind the Agile Manifesto: „Simplicity – the art of maximizing the amount of work not done – is essential.“
13
14
gaming the system
15
16
17
gaming the systemPeople turn estimates into targets. Meeting the target becomes the de facto goal and the de facto method. Meeting needs fades in priority.
People construe estimates as promises. No one can predict the future, but many people treat estimates as guarantees. Failed predictions fan blame. Trust and openness suffer.
http://www.estherderby.com/2012/03/estimating-is-often-helpful-estimates-are-often-not.html
story points & velocitystory points instead of time!
18Photos: DieselDemon, Kyle May, CC-by via flickr
Lake Wobegon effectaka Illusory Superiority
aka „above average effect“
people misestimate their own ability
19
survivorship bias„... is the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that "survived" some process and inadvertently overlooking those that did not because of their lack of visibility.“
look at all your projects
even those, which didn‘t happen
20
no estimates!
21
(3)
productivity by estimation strategy22
1985, Jeffery-Lawrence
people are already doing this!story count gives a more stable prediction than story point velocity
by Vasco Duarte using Scrum (@duarte_vasco)
various different projects
http://bit.ly/NoEstimatesProjectsDB
23
focus on value
24
Customer collaboration over contract negotiation.
Responding to change over following a plan
25
26
requirements are not stable
27
abstractionuse value as primary decision criteria
be better at executing, delivering – the in comparison to the real world, not some plan
28
arbitrary plancost-driven decision
ignore youre potential
what to do?
29
(4)
simple!
1. select the most important part of work that has to be done
2. break it down into small chunks (risk neutral, commitable...)
3. deliver it
4. iterate and refactor
30(by Vasco Duarte) Photo: mtshaw, CC-by via flickr
observe and predictobserve & measure
think about your indicators
do not put guesses in
predict the future
31
stable development processyou need a stable development flow, system, people
you can concentrate on improving this
32
self-regulating predictionnumber of stories instead of arbitrary guess
size of stories may change over time
observed outcome changes -> changes prediction
33
kanban anyone?
34
35
readynew doing delivered done
readynew doing delivered done
36
• lead time• cycle time• flow
scrum “stories of size 1“
37
chaordic/chaotic: no estimation, focus on delivering?
38
but... what is the price for the customer?
39
Price?
be Agile!do not be trapped in a plan
40
focus on valuehighest value first
how many features in your projects do not deliver value?
41
42
Trust.
Iterate, don‘t estimate.43
what not to do!
44
(5)
do not refuse to answer estimation requests.
but…
45Photo: jcolman, CC-by via flickr
large projects, unbreakable chunks
46
not large, monolithic projects47Photo: Steven Thomas
woman in pastoral setting
increment & iterate & deliver
Wrap UpGuessing + Estimates are bad
value and cost are not related
focus on value, focus on better delivering, gain trust
stop estimating
look at your process to get #BeyondEstimates
48
(6)
thank you.
thank you. discuss!
49
#BeyondEstimates
#NoProjects