Technological Trends of the Future: Next Era of ComputingKerrie Holley, IBM Fellow
GTO identifies significant technology trends early.
It looks for high impact disruptive technologies
leading to game changing products and services
over
a 3-10 year horizon.
Technology thresholds identified in a GTO
demonstrate their influence on clients,
enterprises, and industries, and have high
potential to create new businesses.
IBM’s Global Technology Outlook (GTO)
IBM’s
GTO
Genetic
Map
Technology Drivers
Mobile - Social – Cloud -
Analytics / Big Data
Increasing Complexity / Yet More Consumable
� Data and data management
� Workloads
� Discovering insights
� Interaction
Fast Pace
� Evolving business eco-system
� Dynamic scalability
� Minimize time to value
� Keeping pace with technology and globalization
Contextual Overload
� Proliferation of sensors and devices
� Demand for personalization
� Just in time
Growing Scale / Lower Barrier of Entry
� Users
� Transactions
� Computations
� Data
Mega Trends
IBM’s 5 in 5
Touch: You will be able to feel through your phone
Sight: A pixel will be worth a thousands words
Hearing: Computers will augment what you hear
Taste: Digital taste buds will help you eat smarter
Smell: Computers will sniff out diseases
…..the New Era
For many clients, mission critical applications have reached the point
of diminishing return
Client
Value
Diminishing Return
Many major application
categories are in
diminishing returns
– ERP
– SCM
– Batch
– Commerce
Cumulative Investment in Applications
The confluence of Social, Mobile, Analytics and Cloud has created a
perfect storm of sorts
Mobile
Cloud
Social
Internet of Things
Exponential growth in data, why does it matter?
2010
Vo
lum
e i
n E
xab
yte
s
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2015
Percentage of uncertain data
We are here
Sensors & Devices
VoIP
Enterprise Data
Social Media
Pe
rcen
t of u
nce
rtain
da
ta
100
80
60
40
20
0
Companies are not overwhelmed by too much data
…. constrained and limited by too little
Information in context
Top 200Customer
Job Applicant
IdentityThief
CriminalInvestigation
Puzzle metaphor by IBM Fellow, Jeff Jonas
Analytics and the context multiplier
Raw Data
Feature
extraction metadata
Domain linkages
Full
contextual analytics
Location risk
Occupational risk
Dietary risk
Family history
Actuarial data
Government statisticsEpidemic data
Chemical exposure
Personal financial situation
Social relationships
Travel history
Weather history
. . .
. . .
Patient records
Eras of Computing CognitiveSystems Era
Programmable Systems Era
TabulatingSystems Era
Watson to provide the foundation for a completely new form of client
experience
Watson can assist an Oncologist by:
� Synthesizing disparate data – patient records, clinician notes, test results, pathology reports, etc.
� Identifying missing pieces of data recommending tests with complete transparency
� Providing evidence-based options to help physicians efforts to improve quality of care and patient experience
IBM Watson brings together transformational technologies to drive
optimized outcomes ushering in the new era
99%
60%
10%
Understands
natural
language and
human speech
Adapts and
Learns from user
selections and
responses
Generates and
evaluates
hypothesis for
better outcomes
3
21
Key Technologies in the Cognitive Computing Era
Software Defined Environments
Atomic and Nano-scale
Data-centricSystems
Visual Analyticsand Interaction
Context and Learning 1
2
3
4
5
Major Waves of Technology – 4th Era of IT
Back OfficeComputing
Client Server PC - 1981
World Wide Web and eBusiness
Confluence of Social Mobile Cloud Analytics / Big Data
90’s80’s60’s We are here
Trend: Mobility is driving new consumption patterns
Context Fusion
Apps are used to perform a single task,
based on the user's context (role, location,
...)
App-centric
Users increasingly demonstrate a
preference for apps that are downloaded
from trusted source over mobile web
browsing
Apps Chained
50% of mobile sessions are composed of
sequences of apps, manually "integrated"
by the user
New consumption patterns place users at the center. Mobile provides a seamless experience across all channels (e.g., retail, banking, call centers).
Social
Chat
Tablet
Smartphone
Web
Telephone
Physical WorldSmart TV
Augmented
Reality
Wearable
Devices
Mobiity, cloud, social and analytics is enabling companies to re-
imagine their business models to capture new value
Systems of Record
HTTP Notification
Data sync
Scalable Delivery Infrastructure
Background Activity & Monitoring
Data Synchronization
Service Composition
Metadata Repository
User and services security
Engagement Capabilities
Social and Collaboration
Cross-endpoint Support
Personalization
ContextualizationContinuous Client
Experience
ERPERPLegacy
DB
Legacy
DB
CRMCRM HRHR
Scalable DeliveryInfrastructure
Trend: Born on the Internet enterprise companies have emerged
• New models for collaboration and life cycle management for applications and
code
• Cloud for Internal IT and product delivery
• Customer experience and business experiences delivered through software as
a service
• They use a self-service sales model with scalable subscription pricing models
Trend: New User and App / API Economy has emerged� New user: fundamental Shifts in Devices and Usage
– PC � Mobile
– Search � Social
– Traveling Heavy � Traveling Light
– Miminal Insight � Contextual
– Standard Interfaces � Imagination of User Interfaces
� Application economy of the enterprise is changing: bring
your own applications, data and device to the enterprise
– Unaware � Incorporated Location Services
– “Toy Apps” � Business Level Capabilities
– Monolithic applications � Mobile Self-Service
Marketplaces
Trend: The New Developer has emerged in the enterprise
� The new developer is taking control over the corporation
with Open Source
� Prosumers are becoming the newest developers
� The new developer is API driven
� The new developer is API driven
– APIs are changing the face of development and the way
products and services are delivered
– Create exposure and revenue
– Foster new affifliate and distribution models
– Allow companies to open their resources in a secure and
controlled way
– Create near real time access to cross division resources
Cloud, mobile and social are fueling the hyper-growth of API-centric,
new business as-a-service economies
TREND:A new as-a-service
economy is
emerging
� Business functions are delivered as API-centric services,
enabling businesses to co-create customer value with speed
and scale
� Born-on-the-web companies are co-creating value through
APIs at an accelerated pace and enterprises are starting to
explore them
� Agile, scalable, and consumable business as-a-service will shift
the business services market similar to the shift of IT delivery
through cloud
APIs as a strategic business tool for value co-creation and front-office
digitization is growing in Fortune 1000 companies
� API-centric model is at the core of
mature born-on-the-web companies
like Amazon, Google, and facebook
� Registrations in Programmable Web
have more than doubled this year.
At that pace we could see more
than 100,000 APIs registered by
2016.
� By 2014, Gartner predicts that 75%
of Fortune 1000 companies will
expose some form of APIs
+80B API Invocations per day APIs registered across amultitude of business areas
Integrated Business
Functions
As-a-service delivery
Composable Web
Short InnovationLifecycle
API-centric
Business Services
API API
Packaged Applications
Custom Development
Long Project Planning and Development
Business
Solutions
The API-centric, as-a-Service delivery is disrupting the consumption
of business services as Cloud disrupted the IT consumption model
“$7bn worth of items on eBay through APIs”Mark Carges (Ebay CTO)
Web APIs are the new,
fast-growing business
channel
Businesses
Are Evolving
stores (800) ###s web sites
Not having an APIs will be like not having a Web Site in the 90s
“$7bn worth of items on eBay through APIs”Mark Carges (Ebay CTO)
The API which has easily 10 times more traffic then the website, has been really very
important to us.”Biz Stone (Co-founder, Twitter)
“The adoption of Amazon’s Web services is currently driving more network activity
then everything Amazon does through their traditional web sites.”Jeff Bar (Amazon evangelist) / Dion Hinchcliffe (Journalist)
The Web beyond the Browser
New types of systems are being developed using different
engagement models
Systems of Engagement
� Focus on Agility and Rapid Scale
� Workload mobility
� Homogeneous standardization
� Management simplicity
� Shared infrastructure
� Pay as you go capacity
� Social platforms and mobility
� user interface
Systems of Record
� Focus on Transactional integrity
� Optimized performance
� Quality of Service
� Data Security
� Typically a dedicated infrastructure
� Pre-allocated capacity
Questions? : Kerrie holley ; [email protected]
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http://www-03.ibm.com/developerworks/blogs/page/ClientSOA