An analysis of real estate activity through October 31, 2012 provided courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report
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NOVEMBER 2012
November 12, 2012
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Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.
Executive Summary
Pace of Home Sales: October74 homes sold in October 2012, showing a 32% increase over October 2011 when 56 homes sold -- and a 51% increase from October 2010 when 49 homes sold. Home Values: OctoberMedian sales prices declined 5.6% and average sales prices increased 8.4% when comparing October 2012 to October 2011. Days on Market: OctoberHomes sold in an average of 214 days in October 2012, a 16% increase from 185 days in October 2011 and a 2% increase from the 210 day average in October 2010.
The summary below is based on residential sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County as reflected in the HRAR MLS.
Pace of Home Sales: Year to Date712 homes sold in the first ten months of 2012. This is an 8% increase from 2011 when 657 homes had sold, and a 12% increase as compared to 2010 when 636 homes sold. Home Values: Year to DateMedian sales prices increased 0.6% and average sales prices increased 1.4% when comparing 2012 YTD values to 2011 YTD. Days on Market: Year to DateThe length of time on the market for homes selling in 2012 (220 days) increased 6% since 2011 when the average was 208 days on the market.
Buyer Activity90 buyers committed to buy in October 2012, compared to 84 in October 2011 -- which is a 7.1% increase.
Single Family Home Sales544 single family homes sold thus far in 2012, compared to a total of 622 in 2011. The median sales price has increased to $195,000. Townhouse Sales168 townhouses sold thus far in 2012, compared to a 2011 total of 169 townhomes. The median townhome sales price has declined to $139,500 in 2012 from $144,000 in 2011.
Foreclosures207 trustee deeds have been recorded thus far in 2012 compared to 712 home sales reported through the HRAR MLS.
InventoryInventory levels decreased during October 2012 to 655 residential properties currently for sale, down from 698 one month ago, and down from 810 one year ago.
SupplyAll price ranges still show an excess of housing supply, with 8 months under $200k, 9 months between $200k and $300k, 10 months between 300k and $400k, and 36 months above $400k. Price Per Square FootMedian price per square foot of single family homes has decreased to 105/sf in the 3rd quarter of 2012, as compared to $106/sf in the 2nd quarter of 2012.
Lot Sales45 lots of less than an acre sold thus far in 2012, compared to a 2011 total of 60 lots. Median lot sales prices have risen to $56,000 from $54,500 during 2011.
Land Sales39 parcels of land greater than an acre sold thus far in 2012 compared to 49 land sales during all of 2011. The median price per acre has decreased to $12,836 in 2012.
November 12, 2012
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Strong October sales buoy YTD 2012 after slow September. September sales (see Page 4) cooled down a bit, but October home sales rocketed the market ahead again, showing a 32% increase over October 2011. This brought the YTD pace of home sales 8.4% over 2011 YTD sales. Furthermore, prices are showing further signs of
stabilization, with a 1% increase in YTD median sales prices, and 1% increase in YTD average sales prices. Despite this positive signs, the average time on the market for homes that sell continues to rise, now up to 214 days.
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County November 12, 2012
# Home Sales 2009 2010 2011 2012 % Change ('11 - '12)
October 62 49 56 74 32.14%
Year-To-Date 665 636 657 712 8.37%
Median Sales Price 2009 2010 2011 2012 % Change ('11 - '12)
October $184,748 $189,900 $182,000 $171,834 -5.59%
Year-To-Date $190,000 $180,750 $174,000 $175,000 0.57%
Average Sales Price 2009 2010 2011 2012 % Change ('11 - '12)
October $205,617 $192,382 $185,106 $200,576 8.36%
Year-To-Date $218,096 $209,120 $195,878 $198,632 1.41%
Average Days on Market 2009 2010 2011 2012 % Change ('11 - '12)
October 163 210 185 214 15.68%
Year-To-Date 188 193 208 220 5.77%
HOME SALES REPORT
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.
November 12, 2012
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Sales stronger in the City, Prices stronger in the County. The data tables above explores overall sales trends of properties in the City of Harrisonburg as compared to Rockingham County. Don’t mind the drastic swings when only comparing one month of data, as the sample size is quite small -- pay more attention to the YTD
changes in the metrics noted above. For example, the County has seen an increase (+5.82%) in year-to-date median sales price over the past year, while the City has seen a decline (-2.60%) in the same metric. The rate of increase in sales, however, is stronger in the City (+9.96%) as compared to the County (+7.51%).
# Home Sales 2011 2012 % Change 2011 2012 % Change
October 23 30 30.43% 33 44 33.33%
Year-To-Date 231 254 9.96% 426 458 7.51%
Median Sales Price 2011 2012 % Change 2011 2012 % Change
October $164,300 $157,000 -4.44% $190,000 $184,750 -2.76%
Year-To-Date $165,500 $161,200 -2.60% $181,475 $192,033 5.82%
Average Days on Market 2011 2012 % Change 2011 2012 % Change
October 183 239 30.60% 186 198 6.45%
Year-To-Date 220 230 4.55% 202 214 5.94%
HOME SALES REPORT :: BY AREACity of Harrisonburg
City of Harrisonburg
City of Harrisonburg
Rockingham County
Rockingham County
Rockingham County
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.
November 12, 2012
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So long September, we’re glad October replaced you! September home sales were surprisingly slow this year (67) as compared to last September (79) -- but October made up for that slow spell, with 74 home sales as compared to 62 last October. This was the strongest pace of home sales we have seen in any recenty October in
our local market. Looking ahead, the energetic November of 2009 was related to a tax credit deadline, so the more normal November sales figures seem to be in the high 50’s. Our market seems poised to finish out 2012 with strength.
37
53
57
51
75
86
95
77
71
62
84
69
45
5349
83
71
117
52
62
55
49
58
64
4038
61
78
68
81
7779 79
5658
79
39
46
66
7377
84
9492
67
74
0
25
50
75
100
125
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Sing
le F
amily
, Tow
nhom
e &
Con
do S
ales
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Month-By-Month Home Sales History 2009
2010
2011
2012
October 201274 Home Sales
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.
November 12, 2012
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Another strong month of contracts. There must be something about October --- there was a burst of buyers signing contracts last October (2011) and again this year the October contract numbers were quite strong with 90 contracts signed. This buoys our YTD contract figure to 1,027 contracts -- well above the past two years.
These strong months of contract figures this Fall bode well for the remainder of this year’s sales figures. We are likely to see healthy closing figures in November and December based on all of the buyers who signed contracts in August, September and October.
78
55
45
59
48
95
121
84
54
74
60
74
51
60
40
62
69
75
104
88
104
84 86
67
84
76
5659
80
87
9693
102
90
100 98
90
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Oct
-09
Nov
-09
Dec-
09
Jan-
10
Feb-
10
Mar
-10
Apr-
10
May
-10
Jun-
10
Jul-1
0
Aug-
10
Sep-
10
Oct
-10
Nov
-10
Dec-
10
Jan-
11
Feb-
11
Mar
-11
Apr-
11
May
-11
Jun-
11
Jul-1
1
Aug-
11
Sep-
11
Oct
-11
Nov
-11
Dec-
11
Jan-
12
Feb-
12
Mar
-12
Apr-
12
May
-12
Jun-
12
Jul-1
2
Aug-
12
Sep-
12
Oct
-12
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Buyers Per Month Commiting to Buy Properties
820 contracts 923 contracts 1,027 contracts
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.
November 12, 2012
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We could almost take November off. This graph shows the month by month cumulative count of residential sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Last year’s home sales (794) exceeded 2010 home sales (758), and this year is off to a good start with stronger year-to-date sales (712) as compared to 2011 (657) during
the same time period. With sales only on the books through the end of October, our annual pace of sales (712) almost matches the first eleven months of 2011 (715)! We could almost (almost) take November off, and still finish off the year ahead of last year.
45 40 39
98 78 85
147 139 151
230 217 224
301 285 301
418366 385
470443
479
532 522571
587 601638636 657712694
715758
794
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2010 2011 2012
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Monthly Cumulative Residential Sales
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.
November 12, 2012
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Inventory levels keep on dropping. The declines in median sales price seen over the past several years are partly due to the imbalance in the market between the number of sellers (too many) and the number of buyers (too few). With contracts on the rise (see page 6) and inventory declining (see above) we are slowly moving
towards a more balanced market. It has actually been quite a rapid improvement over the past two years --- with a 19% decline in inventory over the past 12 months, and an overall 29% decline over the past 24 months. We are likely to see inventory levels continue to taper off through the remainder of the year.
927
846
787 778807
832865 870 872 882 877
846810
748
672 671 665
708733
751721 727
706 698
655
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Inventory Levels
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.
-19%
November 12, 2012
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Home prices steadying. This graph provides an overall indicator of the state of our housing market, showing both the number of homes being sold each year since 2000 (yellow bars) as well as changes in the median sales price during the same time period (blue line). After five years of declines in home sales (2005-2010) the
pace finally picked up in 2011 with a 4% year-over-year increase. With stronger YTD sales in 2012 (+8.4%) we will likely see further improvement in the pace of home sales this year, and it seems quite possible that home values (as measured by median price) will level off this year, as they have increased slightly so far this year.
829
1,071
1,153
1,324
1,507
1,669
1,438
1,248
936
816758
791
712
$116
,000
$122
,900
$122
,588
$127
,700 $1
49,0
00 $169
,900
$192
,983
$195
,100
$195
,500
$186
,000
$180
,000
$174
,900
$175
,000
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales & Price TrendsSingle Family Homes & Townhomes
+14%
+11%-14%
-13%
-25%
+15%
+8%
+29%
+6%-0.3% +4%
+17%
+14%
+14%
+1% +0.2%
-13%
-5%
-7%
-3%
+4%
-3%
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.
November 12, 2012
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Increasing sales pace; stable sales prices. This graph shows a rolling 12 months of the number of home sales in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area, as well as the median price of the homes that sold during these time frames. Each data point is showing one year’s worth of home sales, which eliminates the volatility of
evaluating sales figures on a month-by-month basis. After a slight dip in September, the annualized pace of home sales continues to increase, now to 849 sales per year. Median sales prices continue to stay steadily around $175,000 --- where they have been for over a year now.
775 81
7
817
825
825
817 84
9
845 87
6
833
818
802
789
763
758
753
738
750
745
742
706 731
748 772
779
779
794
793
801
806
801
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813
830
843
831
849
$189
,250
$187
,225
$186
,000
$186
,000
$185
,000
$185
,000
$185
,000
$184
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$183
,000
$183
,950
$181
,700
$178
,750
$178
,500
$179
,900
$180
,000
$180
,000
$180
,000
$179
,800
$175
,575
$175
,825
$174
,250
$175
,000
$175
,650
$176
,650
$175
,800
$175
,000
$174
,900
$174
,900
$174
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$173
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$175
,000
$175
,950
$175
,000
$175
,000
$175
,000
$175
,000
$175
,000
$110,000
$130,000
$150,000
$170,000
$190,000
$210,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Time-Adjusted Home Sales Trends :: All Homes# Home Sales, Median Sales Price in each 12 Month Period
Annualized Home Sales
Annualized Median Sales Prices
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.
Growth!
Stability!
November 12, 2012
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Prices of single family homes increase. The single family home market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County seems to be recovering quite nicely compared to the overall market. Last year, the pace of home sales in the single family home
market increased by 12% -- nearing 2008 sales levels with 622 sales. Single family homes are performing well again in 2012, and median prices are currently showing an increase from $185,500 (last year) to $195,000 for the first ten months of 2012.
674
868 851880
1,024 1,025
909
798
654
563 555
622
544
$122
,850
$133
,239
$136
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$147
,000 $1
70,0
00
$210
,000
$226
,800
$223
,575
$215
,000
$204
,500
$199
,600
$185
,500
$195
,000
-$25,000
$25,000
$75,000
$125,000
$175,000
$225,000
$275,000
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales & Price TrendsSingle Family Homes
+16%
n/a-11%
-12%
-18%
+3%-2%
+29%
+9%+2%
+8%
+16%
+24%
+8%
-1%-4%
-14%
-5%
-1%
-2%
+12%
-7%
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.
November 12, 2012
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Townhouse sales picking up pace (compared to last year). After six years of rapid declines in the pace of townhouse sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, we might finally be seeing the “bottom” as it comes to the pace of sales. There were only 169 townhouse sales during 2011, and we have already seen 168 townhouse
sales in the first ten months of 2012. This is, of course, with a trade off on prices, which continue to decline, though not quite as rapidly as they had for the past several years.
155
203
302
444
483
644
529
450
282
253
203
169 168
$89,
000
$94,
600
$103
,100
$108
,200 $1
18,5
00 $134
,950
$160
,850
$163
,800
$167
,250
$161
,875
$154
,500
$144
,000
$139
,500
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales & Price TrendsDuplexes, Townhomes & Condos
+9%
+33%-18%
-15%
-37%+47%
+49%
+31%
+6%
+9%+5%
+10%
+14%
+19%
+2% +2%
-11%
-3%
-20%
-5%
-17%
-7%
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.
November 12, 2012
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Foreclosures up from last year. The graph above is a comparison of two imprecise measures -- but the comparison can still be helpful. The blue bars show the number of home sales recorded in the HRAR MLS -- this does not include private sales (without a Realtor), nor new home sales directly from a builder. The red bars
show the number of Trustee Deeds. Some foreclosed properties then show up in blue when they are listed as REO properties. The foreclosure rate has increased somewhat in 2012, as there were 3.5 times as many home sales as foreclosures during 2011 and only 3.4 times as many home sales as foreclosures thus far in 2012.
829
1,071
1,153
1,324
1,507
1,669
1,438
1,248
936
816758
791
712
5691 63 75 70 86 93 97 118
177
270223 207
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales vs. Trustee SalesHome Sales per HRAR MLS Recorded Trustee Deeds
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.
3.4X3.5X
November 12, 2012
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Recovery more evident in lower price ranges. The pace of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County varies significantly based on price range. The graph above shows the average number of home sales per month (given a 12-month average) as we have passed through the past two
years. Home sales under $200,000 has increased for the past year (and then some), as has the pace of sales between $200,000 and $300,000. The pace of home sales between $300,000 and $400,000 has been relatively steady, and the highest price range ($400,000 and up) has seen slower sales over the past two years.
4038 38 38
3738 38 37
3637 37
39 39 40 40 40 40 41 41 41 4142 43
4243
16 17 16 16 16 16 15 1514 15
16 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 20 20 20 20
6 5 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6
3 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 20
5
10
15
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25
30
35
40
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50
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales by Price Range (Average of Past 12 Months)
$0 - $200k $200k - $300k $300k - $400k $400k +
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.
Post-Tax-Credit Decline Recovery?
Recovery?
November 12, 2012
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Big drop in inventory in lowest price segment. Inventory levels have declined across the board over the past two years, but the changes have been quite different based on list prices. The most significant change has been in homes under $200,000 -- just 12 months ago there were 433 such properties for sale, and today there are only
336 for sale -- this marks an 22% decline in inventory. These declines in inventory over the past two years are definitely making a difference in helping to return us to greater balance in the local housing market.
448426
414 416
443 447457 452 451 454 451 444
433
399
339 343328
350 353 360 353370
357 355336
283
259
218208 208 216
230 232 232 236 229 221203
189 180 185 194206 214 222
209 201 199 207187
10589 85 89 86 88 97 105 103 106 112
101 9989 81 77 79 77
87 91 84
77 75 64 60
9172 70 65 70
81 81 81 86 86 85 80 75 71 72 66 6475 79 78 75
79 75 72 72
0
50
100
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200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Inventory Levels by Price Range$0 - $200k $200k - $300k $300k - $400k $400k +
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.
-22%
November 12, 2012
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Housing supply spikes in high price ranges. With so many homes on the market (lots of sellers) and so few home sales (not so many buyers), there are very high levels of supply in our local real estate market. The graph above illustrates that it would take 36 months to sell all of the homes currently for sale over $400K if the
same number of buyers bought each month as have been buying (on average) over the past 12 months. Many experts consider a six months supply of housing to be a balance between buyers and sellers in the market, and it is remarkable to note that we are finally starting to approach that balance in the under $200K market.
11 11 11 1112 12 12 12 13 12 12
12 1110
8 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 98
17
16
13 13 1314
15 1517
16
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1211
10 10 1111 12 12
11 10 10 109
19
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16 16 16
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17 1716
14 13 14 13
15
1716
14 13
1110
27
2120
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25
29
26 26
25
23 24
2625
23
28
3331
3836
5
10
15
20
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30
35
40
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Months of Housing Supply by Price Range$0 - $200k $200k - $300k $300k - $400k $400k +
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.
November 12, 2012
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Buyers experiencing slightly less flexibility on pricing. This graph shows the average list price to sales price ratio (red line) over the past 12+ years as compared to the overall pace of home sales. At the peak of the housing boom (2004-2006) sellers were able to obtain an average of 99% of their asking price --- up from an average
of 97.4% in 2000 before home sales started escalating. Last year may have offered the most flexibility for buyers --- with homes selling at an average of 94.7% of their asing prices --- this metric now shows an improvement to 95.2% of the asking price for home sales during the first ten months of 2012.
829
1,0711,153
1,324
1,507
1,669
1,438
1,248
936
816758 791
712
97.4%97.7% 97.8%
98.1%
99.1% 99.1% 98.9%
98.0%
96.9%96.2%
95.7%
94.7%95.2%
84.0%
86.0%
88.0%
90.0%
92.0%
94.0%
96.0%
98.0%
100.0%
102.0%
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
List Price to Sales Price Ratiowithin the context of Home Sales Pace
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.
November 12, 2012
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Price per square foot showing possible signs of stability. In addition to monitoring home values by overall median sales prices in our market, it can be insightful to examine the median price per square foot of homes that are selling. The graph above shows the median price per square foot of all single family homes sold over
the past 10+ years. The value trend captured by this graph is quite similar to the trend shown in the single family home median sales price during the same time, which validates that assumed set of changes in home values. Of late, however, the price per square foot has shown signs of stabilization.
$76
$73
$73
$73 $7
6$7
7$7
4 $78
$79
$80 $8
2 $84
$83 $8
6$8
7 $92
$90 $9
6 $99
$105
$105
$113 $1
19 $123 $1
26 $130
$131
$125 $1
29$1
28$1
27$1
26$1
25$1
26$1
21$1
15$1
16 $120
$117
$116
$107
$120
$108
$115
$101 $1
03$1
03$1
02$1
00 $106
$105
$0.00
$25.00
$50.00
$75.00
$100.00
$125.00
$150.00
2000-Q1 2001-Q1 2002-Q1 2003-Q1 2004-Q1 2005-Q1 2006-Q1 2007-Q1 2008-Q1 2009-Q1 2010-Q1 2011-Q1 2012-Q1
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Median Price Per Square Foot TrendsSingle Family Homes
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.
November 12, 2012
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Prices edge up in all price ranges. Price per square foot of single family homes certainly varies for many reasons, including the age, location, lot size and structural characteristics of each home sold. However, there are some similarities in homes of a similar size. This graph illustrates that the median price per square foot of
larger homes (2500+ SF) is a good bit lower ($97/SF) than homes that offer less than 1500 SF ($115/SF). These values cannot be used as an absolute standard against which the value of any home can be measured, but they can provide some helpful guidance when trying to determine the value of a home.
$138$140
$133
$126$123
$111
$115
$123 $123
$116 $117
$107$103
$105
$122$119
$115
$105
$112
$96 $97
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Median Price Per Square Foot by Home SizeSingle Family Homes
0 - 1,499 SF 1,500 - 2,500 SF 2,500+ SF
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.
November 12, 2012
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Lot sales (< 1 acre) stabilizing? While the pace of sales of lots that are smaller than an acre have plummeted since 2004 (-85% between 2004 and 2010), they may have finally stabilized in 2011. In 2009, there were 58 lot sales of less than an acre, in
2010 that increased to 63 sales, and 2011 finished out with 60 sales. The median sales price of these lots under one acre may also be stabilizing between $55,000 and $60,000.
165
201
261247
408
304
111
8574
58 63 6045
$26,
000
$30,
500
$32,
208
$36,
900
$42,
000
$54,
500
$99,
900
$76,
500
$58,
300
$59,
900
$55,
000
$54,
500
$56,
000
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Lot Sales & Median Pricesless than 1 acre
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.
Stability?
November 12, 2012
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Many (many) lots for sale. Despite the fact that only 60 lots (of less than an acre) sold in all of 2011, there are a remarkable 283 lots currently for sale. Some sanity exists in this listing market, however, as the median list price of lots for sale ($60,000) is only slightly higher than the 2012 YTD median sales price of $56,000. Given last
year’s 60 lot sales, if no other lots were listed for sale, it would take roughly 4.75 years to sell all of the lots currently listed for sale. As you can see above, almost half of the lots currently listed for sale are priced above $60,000 --- thus many sellers have offering prices higher than recent (2011, 2012) median sales prices.
$0 - $40k28 listings
10%
$40k - $60k114 listings
40%
$60k - $80k79 listings
28%
$80k - $100k42 listings
15%
$100k +20 listings
7%
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Price Distribution of Active Lot Inventoryless than 1 acre
283 Active Lot Listings; Median List Price: $60,000
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.
November 12, 2012
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Larger lot sales slow again (slightly) in 2012. Parcels of land larger than one acre in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County sold quite quickly in 2011 as compared to both 2009 and 2010. During all of 2010, only 27 such land sales were recorded in the HRAR MLS, but there were a total of 49 such sales during 2011. This increase in
the pace of sales is very likely causing the increase in median price per acre that was experienced between 2010 and 2011. This year, however we are seeing a slightly slower pace (39) of sales, and the median price per acre has fallen back down to $12,836.
58
42
87
76
107
168
7783
53
42
27
49
39
$8,2
34
$8,2
45
$8,3
33 $9,5
35
$12,
003
$17,
713
$15,
000
$24,
184
$21,
250
$15,
424
$14,
552 $1
6,35
5
$12,
836
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Land Sales & Median Price Per Acre1 acre or more
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.
November 12, 2012
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
High (really high) levels of lot inventory. Despite the fact that only 49 parcels of land (of one acre or more) sold in all of 2011, there are a remarkable 264 parcels of land currently for sale. Furthermore, despite the fact that the median sales price of land is hovering around $15,000 per acre, the median list price of the 264 parcels
for sale is currently $20,692 per acre. Given last year’s 49 land sales, if no other land is listed for sale, it would take over five years to sell all of the parcels of land currently listed for sale. As you can see above, the vast majority of land listed for sale is listed at median prices per acre well above the median sales price per acre.
$0 - $10k53 listings
20%
$10k - $20k77 listings
29%
$20k - $30k33 listings
13%
$30k - $40k30 listings
11%
$40k - $50k14 listings
5%
$50k - $100k29 listings
11%
$100k +28 listings
11%
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Price/Acre Distribution of Active Land Inventory1 acre or more
264 Active Land Listing; Median List Price: $20,692 / Acre
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.
November 12, 2012
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
New home sales stabilizing, prices steady. New home builders finally saw an increase in the pace of new home sales during 2011 -- after a steady decline since 2005. This small increase (42 to 45), however, still leaves plenty of room for improvement -- though it appears that we may see a further increase in 2012.
The median price per square foot is also showing signs of steadying, with only a very small decline between 2010 and 2011 (and 2012). As the inventory of re-sale homes slims down, the sales of new homes should continue to increase.
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.
89
138 137
121
140
186
158
139
109
84
4145 42
$87 $9
4 $99 $1
05 $114
$133
$150
$146
$144
$137
$130
$129
$129
0
50
100
150
200
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
New Construction Single Family Home Sales TrendsNumber of Sales, Median Price Per Square Foot
November 12, 2012
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Days on market relatively low amongst many homes that actually slow. Despite high inventory levels, and low numbers of buyers in the market, the homes that are actually selling are selling rather quickly. In fact, nearly 1 out of 3 homes (31%) that sells closes less than 90 days after being listed for sale. Include with that those
that close in the next 90 days and we find that an amazing 62% of homes that sell have closed within six months of first coming on the market. This is not, however accounting for the many homes that never sell -- that linger on the market, or are eventually taken off the market.
0 - 3 months, 262, 31%
3 - 6 months, 261, 31%
6 - 9 months, 113, 13%
9 - 12 months, 74, 9%
1 - 2 years, 105, 12%
> 2 years, 34, 4%
Harrisonburg & Rockingham CountyDays on Market Analysis
Residential Listings Sold in the Past 12 Months
Average Days On Market: 217
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.
0 - 3 months, 212, 32%
3 - 6 months, 163, 25%
6 - 9 months, 94, 14%
9 - 12 months, 40, 6%
1 - 2 years, 89, 14%
> 2 years, 57, 9%
Harrisonburg & Rockingham CountyDays on Market Analysis
Active Listings
Average Days On Market: 261
November 12, 2012
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Sales pace varies by price range. The time that it takes to sell a home in today’s market varies based on the price range of the home in question. For example, 64% of homes that sold under $200K sold in the first six months of being on the
market, while only 46% of homes over $400,000 were able to sell in that same time period.
33%
27%
29%
32%
31%
13%
27%
32%
32%
31%
21%
15%
12%
14%
13%
8%
10%
11%
8%
9%
21%
14%
12%
12%
12%
4%
7%
5%
3%
4%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
$400k and up
$300k - $400k
$200k - $300k
Under $200k
All Homes
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Days on Market Analysis by Price RangeProperties Sold in the Past 12 Months
0 -3 Months 3 - 6 Months 6 - 9 Months 9 - 12 Months 1 - 2 Years 2+ Years
Avg = 217
Avg = 203
Avg = 235
Avg = 247
Avg = 249
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.
November 12, 2012
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Mortgage rates flat; unemployment levels down. As shown in the top graph above, home buyers continue to find amazingly low interest rates on 30-year fixed rate mortgages. After a brief spike in August 2012, average interest rates are now
back to their pattern of breaking all-time historic lows, with a current average of 3.41%. The second graph above illustrates trends in the local unemployment rate -- which dropped again in September, down to 5.6%.
4.95
%
4.88
%
4.93
%
5.03
%
4.99
%
4.97
%
5.10
%
4.89
%
4.74
%
4.56
%
4.43
%
4.35
%
4.23
%
4.30
% 4.71
%
4.76
%
4.95
%
4.86
%
4.78
%
4.60
%
4.51
%
4.55
%
4.22
%
4.01
%
4.10
%
3.98
%
3.95
%
3.98
%
3.95
%
3.99
%
3.88
%
3.75
%
3.66
%
3.49
%
3.59
%
3.40
%
3.41
%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
4.50%
5.00%
5.50%
6.00%
Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12
Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Interest RateSource: Freddie Mac
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.
6.1%
6.1%
6.1%
6.0%
6.4%
6.1% 6.2%
5.4%
5.8%
6.3%
6.1%
6.1%
6.1%
5.6%
5.3%
5.7%
5.6%
6.0%
5.8%
5.3%
5.9%
6.3% 6.
5%
5.9%
5.6%
4.00%
4.50%
5.00%
5.50%
6.00%
6.50%
7.00%
Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12
Harrisonburg-Rockingham MSA
Unemployment RateNot Seasonally Adjusted
November 12, 2012
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.
Scott P. Rogers, an Associate Broker with Funkhouser Real Estate Group, has built a successful real estate career around providing valuable market data, insight and analysis to buyers, sellers, investors and developers. From first time home buyers to sellers of luxury homes and builder/developers, Scott provides exceptional and comprehensive service before, during and after the real estate transaction.
Scott earned a B.A. and M.Ed. from James Madison University, providing him formal education in graphic design, management and counseling -- all of which he leverages on a daily basis to the benefit of his clients. Scott’s graphic design and web development background allows him to create and leverage high caliber technology and marketing solutions.
In 2007, Scott began providing in depth analysis and insight into the local real estate market via his real estate blog, at HarrisonburgHousingToday.com.
In both 2010 and 2011, Scott was recognized by the Harrisonburg / Rockingham Association of Realtors as being in the top 1% of all area Realtors.
Local Online Real Estate Resources . . . .
Central Shenandoah Valley Property Searchhttp://www.ScottPRogers.com
Monthly Real Estate Market Reportshttp://www.HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com
Ongoing Housing Market Analysis & Commentaryhttp://www.HarrisonburgHousingToday.com
Comprehensive Data on Harrisonburg Townhouse Communitieshttp://www.HarrisonburgTownhouses.com
New Home Communitieshttp://www.HarrisonburgNewHomes.com
Trustee Sales in Harrisonburg & Rockingham Countyhttp://www.HarrisonburgForeclosures.com
Bank Owned Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockinghamhttp://www.HarrisonburgREO.com
Potential Short Sales in Harrisonburg & Rockingham Countyhttp://www.HarrisonburgShortSales.com
Owner Financed Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockingham Countyhttp://www.HarrisonburgOwnerFinancing.com
Lease/Purchase Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockingham Countyhttp://www.HarrisonburgLeasePurchase.com
Property Transfers in Harrisonburg & Rockingham Countyhttp://www.HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com
For more information, or with questions, contact:
SCOTT P. ROGERS, Associate Broker540-578-0102 (mobile)[email protected]
Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker