Offender PopulationForecasts
2
Studies by JLARC in 1980s
The Joint Legislative Audit & Review Commission (JLARC) first reviewed the Department of Corrections’ (DOC) forecasting procedures in 1985 and reported weaknesses in the methods used by DOC to forecast the inmate population.
A 1987 JLARC report recommended changing the forecasting process.
“The process for producing and validating the forecasts should be expanded to include more participants. Such a process would ensure that key actors in the criminal justice system have input into the forecast. Moreover, such a group would promote general understanding of the forecast and the assumptions which drive it.”
Source: An Overview of Expenditure Forecasting in Four Major State Programs, JLARC (2000)
3
Virginia utilizes consensus forecasting
An open, participative process that brings together policy makers, administrators and technical experts from all branches of state government
Department of CorrectionsDepartment of Juvenile Justice
Department of Criminal Justice ServicesDepartment of Planning & Budget
Compensation BoardSupreme Court of Virginia
Criminal Sentencing CommissionJoint Legislative Audit & Review Commission
Virginia Commonwealth UniversityParole Board
State PoliceMembers of Senate Finance and House Appropriations
Staff of Senate Finance and House AppropriationsCommonwealth’s Attorney representative
Police Chief representativeSheriff representative
Regional jail representative
4
Technical Advisory Committee
Examines trends in reported crimes, arrests, court caseloads, etc.
Develops multiple forecast models
Scrutinizes each forecast according to the highest statistical standards
Proposes forecasts with the best set of statistical properties
Liaison Work Group
Reviews projections proposed by the Technical Committee
Requests additional data or analysis as needed
Recommends forecasts to the Policy Committee
Policy Advisory Committee
Reviews the projections and selects a forecast for each population
Considers the impact of recent trends and newly adopted legislation
Approves adjustments to forecasts as it deems appropriate
Virginia utilizes consensus forecasting
Chaired by Meredith Farrar-Owens
Chaired by Barry Green, Director, DJJ
Chaired by Secretary John Marshall
5
Four Offender
Forecasts Are Produced
State-responsible (SR) inmate population
Inmates housed in DOC prison facilities and
state-responsible inmates housed in jails
Local-responsible (LR) prisoner population
Prisoners confined in local and regional jails (excluding state and
federal prisoners)
Juvenile correctional center (JCC) population
Juveniles committed to the state
Juvenile detention home (JDH) population
Juveniles placed in local facilities
6
Technical Advisory Committee
Two analysts from two different agencies work independently to develop competing forecast models.
Confidence in the official forecast is bolstered if the different methods used by the two agencies converge on the same future population levels.
The Technical Committee scrutinizes each forecast according to the highest statistical standards.
Forecasts with the best set of statistical properties are recommended to the Liaison Work Group.
The Technical Committee also examines trends in reported crimes, arrests, court caseloads, etc., and provides this information to the Liaison Work Group and Policy Committee.
National and State Trends
8
From June 2007 to June 2008, the nation’s jail population increased 0.7%, the smallest annual rate of growth in 27 years.
Some of the largest jails in the South and Northeast saw declines from June 2007 to June 2008:
– Charlotte/Mecklenburg Co. - 5%
– Atlanta/Fulton Co. - 3%
– New York City - 2%
– Washington DC - 2%
– Baltimore + 2%
Sources: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/press/pimjim08stpr.htm http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/jim08st.pdf http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/pim08st.pdf
National trends in jail populations
9
From January through June 2008, the nation’s prison population increased by 0.8%, compared to 1.6% during the same period in 2007.
Sixteen states reported decreases in their prison populations from January to June 2008. The rate of growth slowed in 18 other states.
Some states in the South and Northeast experienced a decline in their prison population from January to June 2008:
– New York - .7%
– Maryland - .6%
– Georgia - .4%
– North Carolina + 3%
Sources: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/press/pimjim08stpr.htm http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/jim08st.pdf http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/pim08st.pdf
National trends in prison populations
10
292278 275 283 282
270256
200
250
300
350
400
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Violent Index Crime Rates in Virginia, 2002 – 2008
VIRGINIA
Overall Violent Index Crime Rate Murder
Forcible Rape Robbery
Aggravated Assault
Change 2002-2008 -12.1% -9.6% -8.2% +1.5% -18.6%
Change2007-2008 -4.9% -11.3% -0.4% -3.4% -6.8%
Cri
mes
per
100
,000
po
pu
lati
on
Source: Virginia State Police Incident-Based Crime Reporting Repository System as analyzed by the Dept. of Criminal Justice Services Research Center (July 20, 2009)
Note: 2008 figures are preliminary.
11
2,8512,722 2,669 2,638
2,478 2,452 2,500
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
VIRGINIA
Overall Property Index
Crime Rate Burglary LarcenyMotor Vehicle
Theft
Change 2002-2008 -12.3% -3.8% -10.4% -29.8%
Change2007-2008 +1.9% +0.0% +2.9% -6.8%
Cri
mes
per
100
,000
po
pu
lati
on
Property Index Crime Rates in Virginia, 2002 – 2008
Source: Virginia State Police Incident-Based Crime Reporting Repository System as analyzed by the Dept. of Criminal Justice Services Research Center (July 20, 2009)
Note: 2008 figures are preliminary.
12
Arrests of Adults (Age 18+) in Virginia, 2002 – 2008
VIRGINIA Violent(Index Crimes)
Property(Index Crimes) Drug
Change 2002 – 2008 +8.3% +32.1% +34.8%
Change 2007 – 2008 +2.2% +14.5% -6.0%
6,3396,5296,1535,9805,6925,977 6,476
23,20620,17021,65122,010
20,25120,113
26,567
29,35227,475
25,31123,29522,458
30,28032,211
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Property
Drug
ViolentNu
mb
er o
f A
rres
ts
Source: Virginia State Police Incident-Based Crime Reporting Repository System as analyzed by the Dept. of Criminal Justice Services Research Center (July 22, 2009)
13
Drug Arrests in Virginia by Drug Type, 2004 – 2008
20
04
20
04
20
04
20
05
20
05
20
05
20
06
20
06
20
062
00
7
20
07
20
07
20
08
20
08
20
08
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Cocaine Marijuana All others
Marijuana field test kit implemented
Source: Virginia State Police Incident-Based Crime Reporting Repository System as analyzed by the Dept. of Criminal Justice Services Research Center (July 20, 2009)
Note: 2008 figures are preliminary.
14
47,37250,506
48,792
44,723
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: Supreme Court of Virginia (July 20, 2009)
While the total number of arrests for index crimes and
drug offenses was up by 2.5% in 2008, the number of felony
defendants in circuit court declined by 6.2% in 2008.
255,450249,246
243,898238,802
200,000
220,000
240,000
260,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Felony defendants in circuit court
New misdemeanor cases in general district court
(excluding criminal traffic misdemeanors) increased by
2.2% in 2007 and 2.5% in 2008.
New criminal misdemeanor cases in general district court
15
Average Monthly Backlog of Forensic Analysis Cases
Source: Department of Forensic Science Workload Summary
5,230
9,334
18,52018,524
11,510
7,2345,858 5,305
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09*
Ba
ck
log
Ca
se
s
* FY2009 average is based on data from July 2008 through January 2009.
The growth and decline in the case backlog was due primarily to drug cases.
16
Trends in drug crime and enforcement may be affecting Virginia’s jail and prison populations
Overall, drug arrests declined more than 6% in 2008.
– Cocaine arrests dropped by 26%
– Marijuana arrests increased by 1.4%
The average number of drug cases received by the Department of Forensic Science each month declined by 26% from 2006 to 2009.
– Total cocaine specimens dropped by 34% from 2006 to 2008.
The number of offenders in jail awaiting trial for felony drug charges declined by 28% between June 2007 and June 2009.
17
Trends in drug crime and enforcement may be affecting Virginia’s jail and prison populations
Federal data suggest reduced availability of
cocaine. Law enforcement efforts (e.g., seizures,
crop eradication, and border security) and the
drug war in Mexico appear to be impacting the
ability of traffickers to deliver drugs to the U.S.
Local-Responsible Jail Population Forecast
19
Local-Responsible Jail Population FY1999 – FY2009
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
Jul-98 Jul-00 Jul-02 Jul-04 Jul-06 Jul-08
September 2006
Note: Data are based on the average population for each month reported. Source: Virginia Dept. of Criminal Justice Services Research Center (July 20, 2009)
20
Changes in Local-Responsible Jail Population Categories
FY2009 Change
Unsentenced Awaiting Trial 8,273 -5.7%
Sentenced/Pending Additional Charges 5,531 -2.8%
Sentenced LR Felons 3,067 -2.2%
Sentenced Misdemeanants 2,800 +4.5%
Total Local-Responsible Jail Population
19,671 -3.0%
Note: Figures reflect the average population for each fiscal year reported.Source: Virginia Dept. of Criminal Justice Services Research Center (July 20, 2009)
All categories of the local-responsible jail population decreased in FY2009, except sentenced misdemeanants, which grew by 4.5%.
21
Local-Responsible Jail Population FY2007 – FY2009
18,000
19,000
20,000
21,000
22,000
Jul '06 Jan '07 Jul '07 Jan '08 Jul '08 Jan '09 Jul '09
September 200721,027
September 200820,505
July 200919,512
August 200919,555
June 200919,355
22
Discussion of the local-responsible jail population forecast
Drug crime and enforcement
Some law enforcement officials around the country are reporting an increase in drug use and/or low-level drug sales, which they link to the bad economic times and layoffs.
Will law enforcement efforts and the drug war in Mexico continue to have an impact?
With tight budgets, police departments may freeze vacancies and reduce paid overtime. This may mean fewer man-hours on patrol and fewer street arrests.
Law enforcement resources
To what degree will bad economic times be associated with increases in certain types of crimes, such as larceny or domestic violence?
Economy and certain types of crime
23
Discussion of the local-responsible jail population forecast
Substance abuse and mental health treatment
Budget cuts have resulted in reductions in dollars for drug and mental health treatment for offenders. Some anticipate an increase in recidivism rates.
In Melendez-Diaz, the US Supreme Court ruled that a forensic analyst generally must testify in person, unless waived by the defendant.
During a special session, the General Assembly extended Virginia’s speedy trial requirements to ensure that the analyst is available to testify.
This may result in an increase in the length of time defendants remain in jail awaiting trial.
US Supreme Court Decision
DCJS & DPB Forecasts: Local-Responsible Jail Population
Year FY Avg. Change
FY02 15,769 4.4%
FY03 16,575 5.1%
FY04 17,414 5.1%
FY05 17,891 2.7%
FY06 19,233 7.5%
FY07 20,622 7.2%
FY08 20,278 -1.7%
FY09 19,671 -3.0%Avg.
growth3.4%
Actual:
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
FY00 FY02 FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14
DPB Forecast
DCJS ForecastHistorical
Year DCJS Change DPB Change
FY10 19,414 -1.3% 19,149 -2.7%
FY11 19,378 -0.2% 19,402 1.3%
FY12 19,343 -0.2% 19,784 2.0%
FY13 19,308 -0.2% 20,165 1.9%
FY14 19,273 -0.2% 20,546 1.9%
FY15 19,237 -0.2% 20,926 1.8%
Avg. growth
-0.4%Avg.
growth1.1%
Forecast:
Approved Local-Responsible Jail Population
Year FY Avg. Change
FY02 15,769 4.4%
FY03 16,575 5.1%
FY04 17,414 5.1%
FY05 17,891 2.7%
FY06 19,233 7.5%
FY07 20,622 7.2%
FY08 20,278 -1.7%
FY09 19,671 -3.0%Avg.
growth3.4%
Actual:
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
FY00 FY02 FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14
Average ofDCJS & DPBForecastsHistorical
Year Avg. DCJS & DPB Change
FY10 19,282 -2.0%
FY11 19,390 0.6%
FY12 19,564 0.9%
FY13 19,737 0.9%
FY14 19,910 0.9%
FY15 20,082 0.9%
Avg. growth
0.4%
Forecast:
26
Local-Responsible Jail Population and Approved Forecast FY2007 – FY2010
18,000
19,000
20,000
21,000
22,000
Jul '06 Jul '07 Jul '08 Jul '09 Jul '10
Average of Actual DCJS & DPB Forecasts
Jul 2009 19,512 19,523 Aug 2009 19,555 19,718
Average ofDCJS & DPBForecasts
Historical
State-Responsible Inmate Population Forecast
28
State-Responsible Prison Population FY2000 – FY2009
37,95738,826
32,347
30,882
34,171
35,87935,363
35,90036,486
38,387
28,000
30,000
32,000
34,000
36,000
38,000
40,000
FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09
Note: Figures reflect June 30 population for each year reported. Source: Virginia Department of Corrections (July 20, 2009)
29
Persons Entering the Unsentenced Awaiting Trial Population with a Felony Charge
FY2006 – FY2009
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
14,000
14,500
15,000
15,500
Jul'05
Jan'06
Jul'06
Jan'07
Jul'07
Jan'08
Jul'08
Jan'09
Jul'09
Source: Compensation Board (August 5, 2009)
30
New Court CommitmentsCY1999 – CY2008
11,570
9,084
11,208
10,456
9,537
12,25213,08713,036
11,90411,457
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
CY99 CY00 CY01 CY02 CY03 CY04 CY05 CY06 CY07 CY08
Note: Historical data have been updated to reflect the most recent information available from the new data system known as CORIS.
Source: Virginia Department of Corrections – CORIS System (September 9, 2009)
Preliminary
31
State-Responsible Prison Population FY2007 – FY2009
36,000
37,000
38,000
39,000
40,000
Jul '06 Jan '07 Jul '07 Jan '08 Jul '08 Jan '09 Jul '09
July 200737,974
May 200838,859
December 200838,256
July 200938,329
Approved State-Responsible Inmate Forecast
Year June 30 Change
FY02 34,171 5.6%
FY03 35,363 3.5%
FY04 35,879 1.5%
FY05 35,900 0.1%
FY06 36,486 1.6%
FY07 37,957 4.0%
FY08 38,826 2.3%
FY09 38,387 -1.1%Avg.
growth2.2%
29,000
31,000
33,000
35,000
37,000
39,000
41,000
43,000
FY00 FY02 FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14
Year June 30 Change
FY10 38,429 0.1%
FY11 38,597 0.4%
FY12 38,857 0.7%
FY13 39,176 0.8%
FY14 39,531 0.9%
FY15 39,910 1.0%
Avg. growth
0.7%
Forecast:
Historical
Actual Forecast
Jul 2009 38,329 38,360 Aug 2009 38,400 38,389
Projected
33
Approved State-Responsible Inmate Forecast
Year 2008 ForecastProposed
2009 ForecastDifference
FY2009 39,43138,387Actual
-1,044
FY2010 40,481 38,429 -2,052
FY2011 41,453 38,597 -2,856
FY2012 42,447 38,857 -3,590
FY2013 43,424 39,176 -4,248
FY2014 44,422 39,531 -4,891
FY2015 39,910
34
Technical Probation Violator Population Forecast
2,273 2,276 2,286 2,301 2,320 2,341 2,363
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,300
2,400
2,500
2,600
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
Inm
ates
According to the Department of Corrections, only 53% of habitual probation technical violators are likely divertible; approximately 47% are not good candidates to divert because of security (22%), mental health (15%) or medical reasons (10%).
Note: Forecasted figures represent the population as of June 30 of each year.