Pakistan A Leaderless Leader in Economic Growth Potential among Emerging Markets
A presentation by Zahid Hussain Khalid for
ICMR 2013 International Conference on Growth in Emerging Markets November 21-22, 2013
The Paper and the Presentations on Emerging Markets…
ICMR 2011: Emerging Market’s Future – Theoretical Perceptions and Ground Realities
http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/emerging-markets-future ICMR 2012: Emerging Markets – Outline of an original plan : Re-invention of education system for national and global good governance, social and
economic development
http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/re-invention-of-education-systenpdf-presentation
ICMR 2013: Growth in Emerging Markets – Pakistan, a leaderless leader in economic growth potential among emerging markets
http://slideshare.net/19540201/pakistan-a-leaderless-leader-in-economic-growth-potential-among-emerging-markets-paper
Slide Sequence
INTRODUCTION: Questioning Pakistan’s Economic Growth Potential
Pakistan’s Real Economic Growth Potential Global Perspective • Share of CP Market Growth by Region • Timeline for takeover by China and India as Global Economic Leaders • Code of Professional Proficiency and Ten Future Work Skills • Six Drivers of Change • Seven Key Challenges and Actions • Global State of Talent projected to 2030 • The Value Chain of Talent • Importance of Equitable Access and Good Quality Education to Private
Sector • A Major Concern: Employability • A much ignored irony of the Education System • Analyzing Potential Return to the Private Sector from Investment in
Education Contextual Aspects of Governance, Capacity Level s and Evaluation • Four Cycles of Preparedness • Process Custodianship and Governance in Different Context • Three Levels of Capacity
Positioning Pakistan on the World Economic Growth Map • How is Pakistan looked at? Country’s National Image • Causes and Consequences of the Negative National Image • Nine Unattended Flaws in the System of Governance Three Immediate Challenges • The First Step: Put the House in Order • From Where to Begin: Reposition Pakistan Five Territories on the National Activity Map
Why Five Territories on the National Activity Map
• Social • Political • Economic • Diplomatic • Military
National Activity Plan from Civil Society’s Perspective
• Social Activity: Action • Political Activity: Action • Economic Activity: Action • Diplomatic Activity: Action • Military Activity: Action CONCLUSION
25 Rapid Growth Markets
SOURCE: “Growing Beyond: Rapid growth market, Winter Edition - January 2013,” Earnst & Young
Pakistan is NOT among them! Does it mean that Pakistan Can’t be one of them?
Ten years of massive growth in Asian international expansion
SOURCE: “Growth Journeys: Helping Asian companies realize the value of their international expansion strategies,” Accenture
Pakistan is NOT among these too, because she is engaged on war fronts!
Asian companies have invested more than US$2.9 trillion in regional and global expansion in the last 10 year. Even 1% of that investment comes to US$29 billion, instead Pakistan has spent more than US$100 billion on WAT with more than 75% negative return on investment.
All is not well! Rapid Growth Market Forecast 2013
HIGHEST RISK MEDIUM RISK LOWEST RISK
SOURCE: Earnst & Young Rapid-Growth Markets Forecast – October 2013
Turkey, Argentina, India, Egypt, Vietnam, Ghana, Indonesia and South Africa
Poland, Brazil, Czech Republic, Colombia, Chile, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Malaysia.
Thailand, Russia, Korea, Nigeria, China, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar
Here also Pakistan is NOT entitled to any color code because it has the potential to perform better than all of them! Yes, she can!
Sharp increase in optimism on the growth prospects
KEY FINDINGS OF THE
BUSINESS OUTLOOK SURVEY
First Quarter 2013
4 Consumer demand
remains on top of the list of external concerns
5 Attracting and
retaining qualified employees continues to
be the top internal concerns
6 Renewing focus on
sales and marketing is now the top strategic
focus overtaking expansion to new
markets
1 Strengthened
confidence in company performance
2 Sanguinity about
some company-level risks
3 Willingness to invest
more on sales, marketing and R&D
SOURCE: CFO innovation Asia, Business Outlook Survey, First Quarter 2013
Can Pakistan’s Corporate Leaders also endorse this optimism as theirs too? Yes, they can ONLY if they keep the country in mind instead of petty personal interests and build national corporate assets instead of family business empires.
Heightened optimism in country of operation and at company levels across Asia
Optimism at country of operation level Optimism at company level
SOURCE: CFO innovation Asia, Business Outlook Survey, First Quarter 2013
Do Pakistan’s people, their government and corporate leaders have any reason to be optimist? They don’t. But they have every reason to be optimist?
More than one reason to be optimist…
What this slide reflects are Pakistan’s geographic advantage, demographic strength, highest regional GDP in Asia, and military restraint. Why the question mark after the photographs of the top leaders? You can very well guess the answer because that is the title of this presentation. So, what did Pakistan miss on the global front and why?
Global Perspective
Share of CP Market Growth by Region
Timeline of Takeover by China and India as Global Economic Leaders
Code of Professional Proficiency and Ten Future Work Skills
Six Drivers of Change
Seven Key Corporate Challenges and Actions
Global State of Talent Projected to 2030
The Value Chain of Talent
Importance of Equitable Access and Good-Quality Education to Private Sector
A Major Concern: Employability
The Much Ignored Irony of the System of Education
Analyzing Potential Returns to the Private Sector from Investment in Education
Share of world CP market growth, 2012 to 2017, by region
“Between 2012 and 2017, the share of world CP market growth coming from emerging Asia will rise from 29% to 38%.” Pakistan has the potential to contribute more than any other country in the region by drawing natural and human resource maps and seriously
working on them to make them appear on the world economic map.
SOURCE: EY analysis from Euromonitor data, June 2013., Brand New Order – “Profit or lose Balancing the growth-profit paradox for global consumer products companies and retailers in Asia’s emerging markets,” Earnst & Young, 2013
Timeline of takeover by China and India as global economic leaders
China is moving ahead cautiously, India’s claim to third position in global economic leadership is doubted, though not impossible yet, and Pakistan is striving for an “externally borrowed” breathing space. Will Pakistan be able to even join the race? Yes, Pakistan can by relying
on its own natural and human resources governed and managed by responsible political and corporate leaders.
Six Drivers of Change
1: Extreme Longevity
Increasing global life-spans change the nature of careers and learning
2: Rise of smart machines and systems
Workplace automation nudges human workers out of rote, repetitive tasks
3: Computational world
Massive increases in the sensors and processing power make the world a programmable system
4: New Media Ecology
New communication tools require new media literacies beyond text
5: Super-structured organizations Social technologies drive new forms of production and value creation
6: Globally connected world
Increased global interconnectivity puts diversity and adaptability at the center of organizational
structures
SOURCE: Future Work Skills 2020, Institute for the Future for the University of Phoenix Research Institute 2011
70% young Pakistanis have to grow up; familiarize with smart machines and systems; connect with computational world; try to know the architects and understand the reach and impact of new media ecology, found or become part of super-structured organizations and
prepare to become active citizens of globally connected world.
Code of professional proficiency in future
Proficiency depends on observation, probe, understanding, experimenting, concluding, testing, succeeding, packaging, communicating, networking and collaborating.
SOURCE: Future Work Skills 2020, Institute for the Future for the University of Phoenix Research Institute 2011
Key Corporate Challenges and Actions
Decision-making processes and authority are over-concentrated in global headquarters
Overseas offices' lack of respect for the leadership authority of headquarters
Lack of clear structure in top leadership roles and processes
Leadership across functions and geographies lacking alignment on the common goals of the global organization
Governance structures are not clearly understood by staff outside of the home country
Lack of ability to hold overseas offices accountable for not complying with processes and procedures
Weak cross-border collaboration
KEY CHALLENGES Mentoring and coaching programs
focused on global leadership
Personality and leadership assessment for global leadership
Cultural sensitivity training
Regular global videoconferencing or other advanced communications
connecting talent across the global company into teams or workshops
360-degree feedback for global leadership team members
Offering international assignments and global rotation programs
ACTIONS
SOURCE: “Growth Journeys: Helping Asian companies realize the value of their international expansion strategies,” Accenture
Pakistanis are capable of accepting the challenges and always found ready to come into action whenever they were assigned the task to do so in the interest of their country. But, instead of country benefitting from their actions the rewards ended up in foreign bank accounts of corrupt political leaders, criminal corporate mafias, bureaucrats and army generals. PEOPLE WANT CHANGE! TO BEGIN WITH FOCUS ON COUNTRY’S HIGHLY TALENTED YOUTH…
The present global state of talent with the right skills, Projected to 2030
SOURCE: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Education at a Glance (Paris: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 2006), 155./ “Investment in Global Education: A strategic Imperative for Business,” Center for Global Education at Brookings, September 2013
The greater availability and demand of talent in Pakistan underlines the need for the development of Pakistan’s Human Resource Development Maps for educating and preparing them for national and global competencies.
The Value Chain of Talent
SOURCE: “Investment in Global Education: A strategic Imperative for Business,” Center for Global Education at Brookings, September 2013
The Value Chain of Talent demands planning for a citizen’s “Seven Stages of Life” from early childhood to either entrepreneurship or employment and a post-retirement concern-free life.
The Importance of Equitable Access and Good-Quality Education to the Private Sector
PROBLEM: “Despite increasing demand for talent and rising pool of available workers, ‘employability’ will appear as a major concern.” SOLUTION: “Enhance size and quality of talent pool Reduce talent acquisition and retention cost Reduce learning and development costs.”
SOURCE: “Investment in Global Education: A strategic Imperative for Business,” Center for Global Education at Brookings, September 2013
The ignored irony of the system of education
MONTHLY HHOUSEHOLD BUDGET ALLOCATIONS ON EDUCATION “I CANNOTAFFORD EDUCATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES WHERE I LIVE.”
SOURCE: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Demand, Q1 2013 SOURCE: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Demand, Q1 2013
The present system of education across the globe is evidently producing classes of different levels of employees who rarely move from lower managerial level to higher managerial level and this will be noticed not in the distant but the near future. The most aspect of this ironic situation is the need for understanding the seriousness of the psychological and social dimensions of this issue before it’s too late.
Analyzing Potential Returns to the Private Sector from Investment in Education
Note: This approach employs the “full discounting method” referred to by as opposed to the Mincerian earnings function commonly used by labor economists. “The Profitability Of Investment In Education: Concepts and Methods.”
SOURCE: “Investment in Global Education: A strategic Imperative for Business,” Center for Global Education at Brookings, September 2013
Does this yardstick to measure “profitability of investment in education: concepts and methods,” have a module to evaluate the return on investment to Pakistan or to that matter any other country?
Contextual Aspects of Governance, Capacity Level and Evaluation
Four Cycles of Preparedness
Process Custodianship and Governance in Different Context
Three Levels of Capacity
Framework for institutional performance evaluations
SOURCE: Universalia 1985; IDRC 1991; Influencing Change: Building Evaluation Capacity to Strengthen Governance, The World Bank 2011.
Do our systems of governance and education meet any of the criteria such as motivation, environment, capacity and performance?
Process Custodianship and Governance in Different Contexts
Does the government of Pakistan have an Integrated “Contextual National Agenda,” and a “Set of Natural and Human Resource Maps?”
SOURCE: Mohammad A. Jaljouli, “Evaluation Systems as Strategy Management Tools: Building Dubai’s Institutional Learning Capacity,” - “Influencing Change: Building Evaluation Capacity to Strengthen Governance,” The World Bank 2011.
The Three Levels of Capacity
SOURCE: Caroline Heider, A Conceptual Framework for Developing Evaluation Capacities: Building on Good Practice, “Influencing Change: Building Evaluation Capacity to Strengthen Governance,” The World Bank 2011.
Does the existing system of overall national, provincial and district level political and corporate governance reflect any one of the three levels of capacity except the capacity of individuals to the extent of their personal interest and benefit? NOW, LET US POSITION PAKISTAN ON THE WORLD ECONOMIC MAP OF RAPID-GROWTH ECONOMIES…
Positioning Pakistan on the World Economic Map
How is Pakistan Looked At?
Pakistan’s National Image
Causes and Consequences of the Negative National Image
Who is Responsible: Nine Unattended Flaws in the System of Governance
Three Immediate Challenges
The First Step: Put the House in Order
From Where to Begin? …Reposition Pakistan
How is Pakistan looked at?
Communication Lock
Crime Mafias and Terrorist
Groups
Lack of National
Consensus
National Image
What are the causes and the consequences?
ILLITERACY
AND
IGNORANCE
UNEMPLOYMENT
POVERTY
DEPRIVATION
PSYCHOLOGICAL STRESS
CRIME
AND
CORRUPTION
INJUSTICE AND VIOLATION OF
HUMAN RIGHTS
RELIGIOUS, ETHNIC AND
POLITICAL PREJUDICES
SECTARIANISM AND
TERRORISM
What you see here is an Unbreakable Cycle of Nine Social and Economic Evils
With no plan in hand and no funds available
to break this Cycle of Nine Social and Economic Evils
Who is responsible?
CARELESS RULERS
SELF-SERVING PUBLIC SERVANTS
SOCIALLY IRRESPONSIBLE
CORPORATE CONGLOMERATES
PARALYZED LAW ENFORCING AGENCIES
INCOMPETENT MONETARY AND
FISCAL MANAGERS
INEFFECTIVE DEBT MANAGEMENT
EXTERNAL RELIANCE FOR
BUDGET TARGETS
ECONOMIC STRANGULATION
AND SOVEREIGNTY IN DOUBT
PERPETUAL STATE OF UNCERTAINTY
The Dilemma of the world’s most
powerful human and natural resource rich
country of the Muslim world
Nine Ignored and Unattended Flaws in the System of Governance by the voters in Pakistan
Three Immediate Challenges
The First Step: Put the House in Order
From Where to Begin Reposition Pakistan
From where to begin? Reposition Pakistan
An integrated district, provincial and federal Governance Plan based on a set of natural and human resource maps in line with country’s tangible and intangible elements of national power and Strategic National Economic Vision and its alignment with the demands of Globalization for safeguarding national interest and benefitting from resulting gains of keeping pace with Global Economic Growth.
Five Territories on the National Activity Map
Social Territory
Political Territory
Economic Territory
Diplomatic Territory
Military Territory
Five territories on the National Activity Map
Political
STATE OF NATIONAL
EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS
CIVIL SOCIETY?
Geographic
Location
Demographic
Mix
Economic
Growth Leadership
Military
Strength
Military
Social territory on the national activity map…
Social territory is a nucleus around which the other four territories on the national activity map revolve. A family, therefore, is a focal point with reference to social and civil rights and responsibilities. In order to understand its role in national politics national planning needs to focus on an individuals seven stages of life. Each transition of an individual’s life from one stage to the other till his death reflects a change in his role, his rights and his responsibilities as member of his family, society and the state.
Political territory on the national activity map…
HOW TO REMAIN
FOCUSED?
PARTY
MANIFESTO
EXPECTATIONS OF VOTERS
COALITION CONCERNS AND DAY-TO-DAY
DEMANDS AND PRESSURES
PRESSURES OF GLOBALIZATION
Politics has become subservient to an “adjustable” party agenda on “day-to-day basis” instead of “manifesto focused” governance to represent the voters in democratic as well as non-democratic political systems across the globe. It appears that heads of different pillars of the state in Pakistan have decided neither to play nor let the others play. Interestingly, all the parties neither playing nor letting others play have nothing personal at stake. Their future is secured socially, politically and economically. They are not bothered about the future of the country or its more than 180 million unfortunate people.
Economic territory on the national activity map…
CAPITAL
FLIGHT
EASE OF DOING BUSINESS
AVAILABILITY OF CHEAP LABOR
NO OR MINIMUM REGULATORY
INTERVENTION
NO OR NOMINAL TAX REGIMES
Pakistan is one of the top listed emerging market’s economies with higher Regional GDP than the most preferred emerging economies in different continents of the world ( http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/potential-of-investment-in-pakistan-12752206 ). Why Pakistan has failed to take any small or significant advantage of its globally acknowledged pro-investment inflow position on Global Investment Flows Map of the World? The answer is carefully engineered disconfiguration of Pakistan’s elements of national power with the connivance of the pawns of enemies of Pakistan placed at different management levels in almost every pillar of the state. These allegedly known and unknown pawns in every pillar of the state have perpetuated a state of permanent uncertainty in such a way that nothing in any area of economy can be planned and implemented with foreseeable, dependable or predictable timeline. http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/pakistans-independence-day-message-to-government-and-people-of-pakistan
Diplomatic territory on the national activity map…
PAKISTAN
AFGHANISTAN
MIDDLE
EAST
IRAN
CHINA AND SOUTH ASIA
In today’s globally and economically interconnected world diplomacy is an art that keeps a country on the safe side economically and militarily in a highly unpredictable world of today. Diplomatic activity, therefore, is the most sensitive of all other activities on the National Activity Map. Diplomacy is not a day-to-day affair. It is considered as the backbone of a country’s National Strategic Vision and Goals. Governments come and go but the National Strategic Vision and Goals do not change with the changes in and around a country. A country’s vigilant leaders always remain fully cognizant of developments in and around borders of their countries. It would not be surprising at all if a student of international affairs described the diplomatic consequences of a war other than military and military actions across the Muslim world in one sentence: “The end of the political Muslim world will be prevented only by an unthinkable, unimaginable and unbelievable miracle.” http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/america-the-great-game-and-the-greater-middle-east-an-undiscussed-perspective-unveiling-the-birth-of-conspiracy-theories
POLITICAL & CIVIL SOCIETY
LEADERSHIP?
GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION
NATURAL & HUMAN
RESOURCES
ECONOMIC & INVESTMENT POTENTIAL
DEFENCE CAPABILITY
Military territory on the national activity map…
PSY-OPS AND
MILITARY WEB
THEORY OF PREEMPTION
CONFUSING MILITARY AND
POLITICAL TACTICS
MILITARY OPERATION
OTHER THAN WAR
NEED FOR LEGISLATIVE
COVER
9/11 is a turning point in the history of diplomacy and military in a sense that the unilateral and multilateral application of the theory of preemptive strike and the concept of military operation other than war in war theaters in almost all continents of the world have exposed the political and military leaders to new challenges. The political leaders have to justify the social, economic and diplomatic consequences of involvement in externally advised or internally planned military action within and outside a country. Similarly, military leaders have to seek parliamentary cover prior to involvement in war against terror in and around a country. Consequently, not only the political and military leaders are under tremendous pressures to justify their actions and the impact of those actions on five territories of National Activity Map. http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/malala-mishap-and-global-media-scenario-in-retrospect-taliban-and-pakistan and http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/the-weaknesses-of-the-muslims
National Action Plan from Civil Society’s Perspective
Social Territory: Action
Political Territory: Action
Economic Territory: Action
Diplomatic Territory: Action
Military Territory: Action
Highlights of the National Action Plan from civil society’s perspective
SOCIAL ACTIVITY: ACTION
In order to make its voice heard, the civil society needs to get organized, create public pressure groups, personal security and social response platforms and pick up their politically uninfluenced and unbiased civil society leaders.
Civil society needs to come up with its own selection process and create platforms for the nomination of candidates for national and provincial assemblies and the senate. The right of selecting a candidate must be taken back from the political party leaders. Civil Society has to develop a mechanism for the investigation of public complaints against the office holders of the four pillars of the state and take the culprits to courts and judicial council no matter how highly placed and important they are and see that the justice is done. Presently ongoing superior court proceedings in NRO and other cases have established beyond any doubt that the constitution of Pakistan is seriously flawed and evidently provides shameful cover to criminals once they are elected. These flaws need to be pointed out by the civil society for immediate review and appropriate correction.
POLITICAL ACTIVITY: ACTION
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: ACTION
The government of Pakistan does not have a National Economic Vision, Natural and Human Resource Potential and Performance Map and rationalized Public Administration Expenditure Manuel. The bureaucracy does not have a “Public Service Code of Conduct” that binds it to remain open and available to ideas and projects of national importance. Presidential immunity is used by section officers and federal secretaries for hiding incompetence, negligence, indifference and corruption at every level of state management operation. Civil Society has to create platforms for addressing the highlighted state management loopholes.
Highlights of the National Action Plan from civil society’s perspective
DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY: ACTION
Pakistan’s ideal geographical location makes it one of the most fortunate countries in the world but the situation in and around Pakistan has made it the most unfortunate and rightly or wrongly the most ridiculed piece of land. How to reverse this situation to Pakistan’s advantage. The key for that is the proper evaluation of Pakistan’s tangible and intangible elements of national power and their reconfiguration for proper positioning and utilization of country’s ideal geographical location, its rich natural and human resources, its incomparably unique economic and investment potential, its one of the finest armed forces in the world.
MILITARY ACTIVITY: ACTION
It will not be inappropriate and out of place to blame Pakistan’s military commanders for the overall mess Pakistan is in. So far Pakistan’s military commanders have repeatedly jumped in to put the country’s democracy back on track but always gifted Pakistanis a much bigger mess before they left. Now instead of trying another way out in an old manner it will be advisable to use the civil society giving them military cover in getting their right to self-govern back to them in its true sense. How that can be done? That can be done only by mobilizing “Influence Groups” in every walk of life through “Specific Self-Governance Tasks” within a given timeline.
The Way Out…
When those who are given the mandate to govern make the country ungovernable then the only way out for the civil society is to lead the way to show the leaders that those who are mislead can lead too when the time comes. It is far more important to self-govern than handing over the right to govern to those who cannot see beyond their nose.
SOCIAL
POLITICAL
DIPLOMATIC ECONOMIC
MILITARY
NATIONAL ACTIVITY PUZZLE
NATIONAL EMERGENCY
PLAN
Creation and integration of territories on National Activity Map
Growth in Emerging Markets: Pakistan, a leaderless leader in economic growth potential among emerging markets
THE PAPER READING LIST
http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/pakistan-a-leaderless-leader-in-economic-growth-potential-among-emerging-markets-paper