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31
st August 2017
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PORTFOLIO PICKS
STOCK PICKS FOR SEPTEMBER 2017
Stock price in INR
COMPANY SECTOR
MARKET CAP(INR
CR) CMP (INR) RATING
POTENTIAL TARGET
POTENTIAL UPSIDE
NESTLE INDIA Consumer Staples 68465 7121 ACCUMULATE 7700 8.13%
BALKRISHNA IND Speciality Tyre 15165 1568 ACCUMULATE 1800 14.80%
DR REDDY Pharma 33502 2021 BUY 2500 23.70%
CESC Power Distribution 13464 1016 BUY 1200 18.11%
BAJAJ AUTO Auto 2 & 3 Wheelers 81267 2815 ACCUMULATE 3100 10.12%
Time horizon of the recommended stock picks: 12 months unless specified
Market Outlook:
Indian equity markets consolidate its recent gains in the month of August and flows from Foreign
institutional desk was negative (outflow of USD 2 billion) on geo political uncertainty and weakness in US
dollar also affecting investors sentiment. However flows from domestic institutional investors were quite
strong and expected to remain strong in near term. Benchmark Nifty shed nearly 1.6 percent in the month
amid volatility. Recent rally in last few months has made stock prices overvalued in some sectors and
pockets of markets and risk reward is not favorably placed for short term. However, strong liquidity and
expectations of faster recovery in earnings, stability in political establishment in India could provide markets
at lower levels and India remains a "buy on dip Markets" .We are cautiously optimistic on Indian equities.
US Fed would sets the process to wind down its massive USD 4.5 trillion balance sheet “relatively soon” in
part its exercise to normalize the interest rate and it is expected that gradual approach of Fed could mitigate
the risk of adverse effects on market functioning or outsized effects on interest rates. The process comes as
the Fed is on a gradual path towards interest rate hike cycle. Fed is expected to hike interest rate by 25 bps
by December 2017.
Market likely to be volatile in near term as valuation is stretched in near term. Geo political and protectionist
policies are the biggest risk in equity markets performance globally. Q1FY18 Earnings session in India was
mixed with Cement companies and selects private banks posted reasonably robust numbers whereas
growth momentum for IT and Pharma companies continues to be weak. Earnings recovery may kicks in the
early 2018 and increase in government's spending would help to capex recovery in 2018.
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UPDATE ON AUGUST 2017 STOCK PICKS
STOCK
CALL INITATED AT (INR) DATE
POTENTIAL TARGET RATING
PRICE(31 AUG 2017) REMARKS
HDFC BANK 1779 28-Jul-17 1950 ACCUMULATE 1776.00 OPEN
BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES 3907 28-Jul-17 4270 ACCUMULATE 4231 TARGET ACHVD
MGL 986 28-Jul-17 1100 ACCUMULATE 1044.00 OPEN
CAPITAL FIRST LTD 767 28-Jul-17 850 ACCUMULATE 723.00 OPEN
BATA INDIA 575 28-Jul-17 680 BUY
680.85 TARGET ACHVD
Stock price in INR
Performance reports of recommended stock return in this report are carried on cash closing price and the call deemed to be open (for 12 months) on F&O expiry date of respective month until target is revised downward/upward depending on companies’ future performance. We have now revised this stock return performance policy from 30 Sep 2016(Oct derivative series) onwards and STOPLOSS BASIS stock calls are not given.
How Benchmark Index- Nifty moved in AUGUST 2017
OPEN: 10101 HIGH: 9685 CLOSE:9918
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Global Economy Update:
1) World Economy preparing for the faster growth:
Now World Economy is looking good for taking its’ position for faster and firmer growth, after rising it’s
most rapid pace in 2.5 years in the second quarter. As per the economist’s pointer – The improvement
in World Economy and set for sustainable future growth broadly back by improvement in Japan and
Euro area picks up, as these areas of economy was shirker over last period of time. And the more
sustainable outlook seen as Japan and Euro areas are not generating much in the way of inflation. As
per the chief international economist of Deutsch – “The global economy is in better shape than it has
been in several years, we just don't see what would be a trigger for a recession." Also the Global GDP
is projected to increase by 3.4% this year and 3.5% next year, based on a median forecast of
economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
2) The next big enemy for World Economy would be raising China’s debt:
As per the IMF projection China’s debt would be increase to 300% of its’ GDP by early next decade. As
per the IMF director "noted that economic activity had recently firmed and saw this as an opportunity to
accelerate needed reforms and focus more on the quality and sustainability of growth". As per the IMF
report the trade surplus receding to 3 per cent of GDP in 2022 from 4.4 per cent last year. China's
deficit in services is going in the opposite direction, widening to 2.5 per cent from 2.2 per cent in the
same period. The current account surplus is on course to almost disappear. It will shrink to just 0.4 per
cent of GDP in 2022.
3) US Fed may slow down in the pace of interest rate hikes: As the concern of mounted over lagging
inflation the US fed may possible slowing down the hike of interest rate. As per FOMC "could afford to
be patient under current circumstances in deciding when to increase the federal funds rate further" and
said it should hold off on additional adjustments until "incoming information confirmed that the recent
low readings on inflation were not likely to persist". As the Fed’s targeted inflation was 2% since 2012,
but since then it was averaged at 1.3%.
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Indian Economy Wrap: Key Statistics:
1) July inflation surge back by higher food vegetable prices: India's retail inflation jump to 2.36% in July
from 1.46% in June 2017, numbers showing the implementation of GST and 7th pay commission. In
food basket of CPI Sugar and prepare meals are rises by 3.82% and 5.04%, while tobacco product’s
inflation rises about 6.39% in July. While the WPI rises by 1.88% in July back by increases in food and
mineral prices, it raises by 0.90% from June 2017.
2) June IIP numbers are lower in four years, with highly negative growth in Electrical apparatus: The IIP
index is 0.1% lower as compared to the level in the month of June 2016. The cumulative growth for the
period April-June 2017 over the corresponding period of the previous year stands at 2.0 percent. The
industry group ‘Manufacture of electrical equipment’ has shown the highest negative growth of (-) 20.1
percent followed by (-) 11.1 percent in ‘Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and
equipment’.
3) RBI expectedly cuts repo rate by 25 bps: The August bi-monthly policy meet RBI reduce the policy
repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) by 25 basis points from 6.25 per cent to 6.0%.
Consequently, the reverse repo rate under the LAF stands adjusted to 5.75%, and the MSF rate and
the Bank Rate to 6.25%. The decision of the MPC is consistent with a neutral stance of monetary policy
in consonance with the objective of achieving the medium-term target for consumer price index (CPI)
inflation of 4% within a band of +/- 2%, while supporting growth. As per the MEC review - on the state of
the economy, the MPC is of the view that there is an urgent need to reinvigorate private investment,
remove infrastructure bottlenecks and provide a major thrust to the PMAY for housing needs of all. This
hinges on speedier clearance of projects by the States. On their part, the Government and the Reserve
Bank are working in close coordination to resolve large stressed corporate borrowers and recapitalize
public sector banks within the fiscal deficit target. These efforts should help restart credit flows to the
productive sectors as demand revives.
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STOCK PICKS
Company Data
Market Cap (cr) 68465
52 week high (Rs) 7140
52 week low (Rs) 5656
3m average volume NSE 37985
Beta 0.53
Face value ( RS ) 10
Shareholding (%) Q2CY 2017
Promoters 62.76%
Institutions 19.77%
Non-Institutions 17.46%
Key Financials
CY16 CY15 CY14
Net Sales (Cr) 9223.8 8175.3 9854.8
EBITDA (Cr) 1891.7 1418.4 2093.2
PAT (Cr) 926.5 563.3 1184.7
Net Profit Margin (%) 10.0% 6.9% 12.0%
EPS (RS) 96.1 58.4 122.9
Book Value (Cr) 3013.7 2817.8 2837.2
P/E 72.0 118.4 56.3
P/BV 19.3 19.9 21.7
RoNW(%) 30.7% 20.0% 41.8%
RoCE(%) 17.9% 12.2% 26.5%
Nestle India Ltd. Sector: Food Processing NSE CODE: NESTLEIND
ACCUMULATE | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 7121| Target: Rs 7700
TECHNICAL VIEW:
The stock has been consolidating over last three
months in a broader range of 6400-6800 and has
been making higher top higher bottom formation.
During this period , pattern wise formation of
symmetrical triangle has been formed. Recently the
stock broke out of the pattern and that too with
strong volumes implying start of fresh upmove in
short to medium term. Momentum indicators RSI is
in strength & ADX with Moving up thereby showing
that the stock will move up
Pattern wise breakout target comes to much higher
levels but we give target of 7700 in time frame of
around next 12 months
NESTLÉ India is a subsidiary of NESTLÉ S.A. of
Switzerland. With eight factories and a large number
of co-packers, Nestlé India is a vibrant Company
that provides consumers in India with products of
global standards and is committed to long-term
sustainable growth.
In H1CY17 revenue of the company stood at Rs.
5044 crore, with a growth of 8.2% Y-o-Y. The half
yearly operating profit was Rs. 820 crores, it is
16.2% of sales, and it’s lower by 210bps. The PAT
was Rs. 570 crore. The PAT for the half yearly has
grown by 7.5% over the period in the previous year.
In H1CY17 domestic volume growth was 9.5% to
188.7 (000’ tons) from 172.3 (000’ tons) in same
period of last year. Domestic Sales Growth
supported by rebuild of Maggi Noodles and New
Products.
Some of the key initiative like - Launch new
products in each category; Key role of penetration,
frequency and insight led innovation; Fast, Focused,
Flexible in thought and action; Embrace powerful
ways of working etc. will Drive Volumes and
Sustain Profitability.
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Company Data
Market Cap (cr) 15165
52 week high (Rs) 1743
52 week low (Rs) 740
3m average volume NSE 206868
Beta 0.74
Face value ( RS ) 2
Shareholding (%) Q1FY2018
Promoters 54.4%
Institutions 31.9%
Non-Institutions 13.7%
Key Financials
FY17 FY16 FY15
Net Sales (Cr) 3727.0 3239.5 3816.8
EBITDA (Cr) 1384.6 996.4 1004.8
PAT (Cr) 1058.6 674.2 713.3 Net Profit Margin (%) 19.2% 17.7% 12.4%
EPS (RS) 73.1 44.5 48.4
Book Value (Cr) 3523.5 2768.5 2256.6
P/E 21.3 34.9 32.1
P/BV 3.8 2.2 2.7
RoNW(%) 22.7% 17.6% 22.7%
RoCE(%) 22.4% 15.3% 17.0%
Balkrishna Industries Ltd. Sector: Auto Tyre & Rubber Products NSE CODE: BALKRISIND
ACCUMULATE | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 1568 | Target: Rs 1800
TECHNICAL VIEW:
The stock underwent medium term correction from 1740
to around 1450 which has been its 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement of the current rally from around 1000.
Thereafter it gave a massive price volume breakout which
broke past its previous last high of 1564. Trend indicator
of the stock, Moving average convergence
diverenge(MACD) has giving buy signal after 2 months
and historically whenever it does so, the price moves up
consistently.
Stock has made higher base and now ready to move up
above its recent high and we expect price target of 1800 in
next 1 year.
The company mainly operates in one single segment i.e.
“tyres” with focus on manufacture of wide range of “Off-
Highway Tyres”(OHT), which are mainly used in
Agricultural, Industrial & Construction, Earthmover &
Port, Mining, Forestry, Lawn & Garden and All Terrain
Vehicles (ATV). More than 80% of revenue is generated
through exports.
In Q1FY17 standalone revenue of the company stood at Rs
1076 crore, improve by 10% Y-o-Y. The EBITDA for the
quarter was Rs. 275 crore, decreases by 1% Y-o-Y; and the
margin was lower by 300bps to 25.5% due to higher raw
material costs. The PBT and the PAT were Rs. 228 crore
and Rs. 153 crore. The PAT for the quarter has grown by
3%, and the contraction in margin was for higher tax, i.e
margin contracted by 90 bps to 14.2%.
Outlook for FY18:
Revival in commodity cycle and overall good agricultural
activities across the globe will help the industry to grow
faster.
Also expects volume of 185,000-190,000 tons for the
current fiscal, implying growth of 7-10 per cent.
With focused on specialist segments i.e. agricultural,
construction and industrial vehicles as well as earthmoving,
port and mining, ATV and gardening applications will
helps to drive the growth.
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Company Data
Market Cap (cr) 33502
52 week high (Rs) 3400
52 week low (Rs) 1901
3m average volume NSE 837809
Beta 0.48
Face value ( RS ) 5
Shareholding (%) Q1 FY 2018
Promoters 26.78%
Institutions 43.38%
Non-Institutions 29.84%
Key Financials
FY17 FY16 FY15
Net Sales (Cr) 14196.1 15568.3 15023.3
EBITDA (Cr) 2643.7 3880.3 3767.7
PAT (Cr) 1252.3 2071.6 2291.8 Net Profit Margin (%) 8.8% 13.7% 15.6%
EPS (RS) 77.5 126.1 137.2
Book Value (Cr) 12262.1 11700.9 9853.1
P/E 26.4 16.2 14.9
P/BV 3.6 4.4 6.0
RoNW(%) 10.5% 18.4% 23.7%
RoCE(%) 9.6% 16.3% 19.8%
Dr.Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd. Sector: Pharmaceuticals NSE CODE: DRREDDY
BUY | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 2021 | Target: Rs 2500
TECHNICAL VIEW:
The stock in long term has completed its long term
corrective pattern of Elliot wave a-b-c-d-e which also
coincides with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of last 8
year chart pattern.
Momentum indicators are in oversold zone and buying
volume is witnessed around current levels.
The stock is likely to rally for minimum immediate
retracement level on the up for target of 2500 in
medium term.
Company is involved in the business activities of
Manufacture of pharmaceuticals, medicinal chemical
and botanical products.
Q1FY17 revenue for the quarter grew by 3% to Rs.3316
crore Y-o-Y, EBITDA also registered 16% de growth to
Rs.336 crore. While R&D expenses were 507 crore
during the quarter, it raises by 50bps to 15.3% of
revenue on Y-o-Y basis.
Revenue from global generics ware up by 3% to Rs.
2746 crore, led by emerging market growth was 34% to
Rs. 575 crore; Europe growth was 28% to Rs. 208 crore;
NAG market de grew by 4% to Rs. 1495 crore; and
Indian market de grew by 10% to Rs. 469 crore.
Forward Outlook:
Company continues to work with the agency and remain
optimistic about eventual approvals. Our new launches
for coming fiscal looks healthy and we expect 10+
launches in the next 12- months. That will ensure the
future growth.
Company continues to focus on improving productivity
and augmenting the pipeline. And are on track to expand
the geographic presence through leverage the institution
business portfolio and biosimilars. Commercialization of
biosimilars across Emerging Markets have now started
gaining meaningful traction. Management remain
optimistic of building this momentum further.
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Company Data
Market Cap (cr) 13464
52 week high (Rs) 1037
52 week low (Rs) 533
3m average volume NSE 523734
Beta 1.1
Face value ( RS ) 10
Shareholding (%) Q1 FY 2018
Promoters 49.9%
Institutions 40.6%
Non-Institutions 9.2%
Key Financials
FY17 FY16 FY15
Net Sales (Cr) 13903.5 12124.2 11066.6
EBITDA (Cr) 3613.9 3401.6 2131.9
PAT (Cr) 627.4 691.1 194.2 Net Profit Margin (%) 5.5% 4.2% 2.7%
EPS (RS) 49.8 41.1 13.1
Book Value (Cr) 10622.7 6267.7 6029.0
P/E 20.1 24.3 76.3
P/BV 1.1 1.1 1.6
RoNW(%) 6.5% 6.6% 3.8%
RoCE(%) 2.3% 1.6% 0.9%
CESC Ltd. Sector: Power – Generation/Distribution NSE CODE: CESC
BUY | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 1016 |Target: Rs 1200
TECHNICAL VIEW:
The stock has been moving up in higher top higher bottom
formation and after following the upward trendline, it
broke its 52 week high. Pattern wise formation it also
formed ascending triangle and it also broke out of it which
implies strong rally in days to come.
The stock has been above its supertrend and momentum
indicators clearly showing bullish signal
We expect the stock price to achieve conservative target of
the stock is 1200 in medium term
Company's business segments include Power generation
and distribution of electricity; organized retailing; property
development, and business process outsourcing.
During Q1FY18 it has registered 9% growth in its
standalone sales to Rs 2184 crore. Gained further by 240
bps expansion in operating profit margin to 27.8%, the
operating profit was up by 19% to Rs 607 crore. The PAT
was up by 2% to Rs 178 crore, back by 94% jump in
regulatory expenses to Rs 194.00 crore.
Outlook & Developments:
The demerger of CESC would be a big value unlocking for,
especially for power and generation businesses, and strong
cash generation business, the distribution business
generates nearly 20 per cent return on equity and would be
the only listed Power Company with such high ROEs. After
de merger group's power business will divide into two –
generation & distribution; while Spencer's Retail will
become the third company. The rest of the business
verticals, includes First source Solutions; New Rising
Promoters; Quest Properties India, Guiltfree, and others
will form the fourth entity.
To diversify its’ power business and to grab the current
opportunity CESC Plans to increase footprints in the wind
business, driven by positive long term outlook for
renewable energy.
Currently the stock traded at 19.25x of current EPS, and
1.3x of its FY18 book value. We expect the current
valuation will re rate and unlocking extra value for
shareholders.
We expect the current valuation will re rate and unlocking extra value for shareholders.
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Company Data
Market Cap (cr) 81267
52 week high (Rs) 3120
52 week low (Rs) 2510
3m average volume NSE 508660
Beta 0.85
Face value ( RS ) 10
Shareholding (%) Q1 FY 2018
Promoters 49.3%
Institutions 25.8%
Non-Institutions 24.9%
Key Financials
FY17 FY16 FY15
Net Sales (Cr) 21766.7 22586.5 21614.3
EBITDA (Cr) 5896.2 5987.1 4356.9
PAT (Cr) 4082.5 4066.1 3135.3 Net Profit Margin (%) 17.6% 15.7% 13.0%
EPS (RS) 141.0 130.8 104.6
Book Value (Cr) 17856.6 13045.4 11095.3
P/E 19.5 21.1 26.2
P/BV 4.6 5.3 5.3
RoNW(%) 22.8% 29.0% 27.3%
RoCE(%) 22.1% 28.1% 26.3%
Bajaj Auto Ltd. Sector: Automobile NSE CODE: BAJAJ-AUTO
ACCUMULATE | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 2815 |Target: Rs 3100
During Q1FY18 net profit on a consolidated basis fell 20%
to Rs 836.75 Y-o-Y, revenue fell 5% to Rs 5442 crore
compared with Rs 5,748 crore in same quarter last year
following decline in sales volumes. Weak operational
performance was witnessed by the company during the
quarter. Bottom line was partly supported by surge in other
income.
Sales in terms of volume ware 8.88 lakh units during the
quarter, down by 10.7% compared with 9.94 lakh units
sold in year ago quarter. The down term largely due to of
GST & transition to BS-IV from BS-III that impacted the
domestic industry in general.
Outlook:
Bajaj Auto continues to dominate the petrol and alternate
fuel market with a domestic market share of 88%. In the
small diesel category, its market share now stands at 71%.
In the larger diesel segment, the market share is up from
20% to 23%. Thus, in the overall diesel category, BAL’s
market share now stands at 34%.
Also partnership with Triumph will provide both
organizations the opportunity to reach new market
segments within the global motorcycle market. It also
helps to compete with Royal Enfield in domestic market
and global market; through Bajaj Auto’s manufacturing
and engineering capabilities and Triumph’s positioning as
premium luxury brand with global reach.
TECHNICAL VIEW:
The stock made multiple bottoms around price level of
2700 and this level also happens to be classical previous
resistance now acting as support level. Henceforth the
stock has consolidated and made strong base
Price level is also closer to its 100wma (weekly moving
average) which historically has been strong support for the
stock.
We expect the price to consolidate and move to ascending
triangle (formed in long term chart) breakout level of
150% Fibonacci retracement level which above 3100 in
medium term.
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RATING PARAMETER
BUY We expect the stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months
ACCUMULATE We expect the stock to deliver 6% - 15% returns over the next 12 months
REDUCE We expect the stock to deliver 0% - 5% returns over the next 12 months
SELL We expect the stock to deliver negative returns over the next 12 months NOTE Target prices are for a period of 12-month perspective. Returns stated in the rating parameter are for our internal
benchmark.
TECHNICAL CALL RATING PARAMETER
BUY A condition that indicates a good time to buy a stock. The exact circumstances of the signal will be determined by the
indicator that an analyst is using.
SELL A condition that indicates a good time to sell a stock. The exact circumstances of the signal will be determined by the
indicator that an analyst is using.
STOP LOSS An instruction to the broker to buy or sell stock when it trades beyond a specified price. They serve to either protect
your profits or limit your losses.
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Peerless Securities Ltd. Peerless Mansion, 1, Chowringhee Square, 2nd Floor, Kolkata- 69
For Private Circulation Only
Research Analyst has served as an officer, director or employee of subject company(ies): No
Research Analyst’s financial interest in the subject company(ies): No
Peerless Securities Limited has financial interest in the subject company (ies): Yes
Research Analyst has actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company(ies) at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report: No
Peerless Securities Ltd has actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company (ies) at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report: No
We or our associates may have received compensation from the subject company (ies) in the past 12 months. We or our associates may have received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company(ies) in the past 12 months. We or our associates may have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company(ies) in the past 12 months. We or our associates may have received compensation or other benefits from the subject company (ies) or third party in connection with the research report. Our associates may have financial interest in the subject company (ies).
Our associates/Group Companies may have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company(ies) at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report.
Subject company (ies) may have been client during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.
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Peerless Securities Limited: Registered Office: Peerless Mansion, 1 Chowringhee Square, 2nd Floor, Kolkata 700069.
Telephone No.: 033 4050 2700, Fax No.: 033 2243 6941. Website: www.peerlesssec.co.in
SEBI Registration No.: NSE INB/INE/INF 230821137, BSE INB010821131, BSE Currency- SEBI registered; AMFI ARN 2103, NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-96-99,
DP ID: IN300958; CDSL: IN-DP-CDSL-505-2009; Research Analyst INH300002365, CIN: U67120WB1995PLC067616
Our research should not be considered as an advertisement or advice, professional or otherwise. The investor is requested to take into consideration all the risk factors including their financial condition, suitability to risk return profile and the like and take professional advice before investing. Investments in securities are subject to market risk, please read all the related documents carefully before investing. Please read the SEBI prescribed Combined Risk Disclosure Document (refer to SEBI website) prior to investing. Derivatives are a sophisticated investment device. The investor is requested to take into consideration all the risk factors before actually trading in derivative contracts.
Compliance Officer: Mr. Raj Kumar Mukherjee. Call: 033-4050-2700, Email: [email protected]
http://www.nseindia.com/http://www.peerlesssec.co.in/http://www.sebi.gov.in/mailto:[email protected]
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Peerless Securities Ltd. Peerless Mansion, 1, Chowringhee Square, 2nd Floor, Kolkata- 69
For Private Circulation Only
Peerless Securities Limited Registered Office: 1, Chowringhee Square, 2nd Floor, Kolkata- 700 069 Phone: +91-33-4050-2700/6450-2002/2243-5942, Fax: +91-33-2243 6941 Institutional Office: 11-A, Mittal Towers, 1st floor, Nariman Point, Mumbai – 400 021 Phone: +91-22-2284 1411, 22-6630 3810, Fax: +91-22-2284 1316
SEBI REGN. NO. NSE: INB/INF 230821137, BSE: INB 010821131, NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-96-99, CDSL: IN-DP-CDSL-505-2009, ARN - 2103