Challenges of Water Power
Peter Kydd BSc(Edin) CEng FICEConsultant, WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff
Chair, South West Marine Energy Park
My pathway into renewables
Civil Engineering Degree in the ’70’s
• Reservoirs and Pumping Stations
• Hydropower
Design & supervision of projects overseas and in the UK
• Tidal Power
Part of a team that developed the Shoots Barrage a concept as an alternative to The Severn Barrage
• Tidal Power
• Energy White Paper 2006
• Appointed by Gov’t to lead Severn Tidal Power Feasibility Study
• Policy and due diligence on many different tidal power proposals
• Currently advising Government on Swansea Bay and Cardiff Tidal Lagoons.
Project Manager - Water & Hydropower Engineering
Director of Environment Director of Strategic Consulting
Semi-retired1981 1989 -1991 2006 and ongoing
15 years
Severn Tidal Power Feasibility Study demonstrated that both barrages and lagoons were feasible although challenging and expensive
Two Private Developers emerged:
Tidal Lagoon Power with plans for Swansea Bay Tidal Lagoon – 320MW
• Launched in 2011
• Awarded DCO in 2015
• Cost of £1.3bn
• Awaiting other consents
Hafren Power with plans for a revised Severn Barrage – 6,000MW
• Launched in 2010
• Cost of £25bn
• Proposed Hybrid Bill for Consents
• Withdrawn in 2013
Tidal Lagoon Power’s journey shows the many hoops before any guarantee of construction• TLP are still awaiting
• Conclusion of Contract for Difference negotiations with UK Government• Marine Licence from Welsh Government• Offshore Lease from The Crown Estate• Conclusions from an Independent Review of Tidal Lagoons by Charles Hendry
expected by the end of this year
• Other Lagoons proposed by Tidal Lagoon Power include:
For more information:www.tidallagoonpower.com
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100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Total Generation Capacity (GW)
"Renewables Capacity (GW)"
Existing Capacity (GW)
Units generated from Existing Capacity(TWh/yr)
Electricity Demand to 2050 (TWh/yr)
Why the interest in different types of renewables when they have so many challenges and reviews?
Renewables Electricity: Today – 15% 2020 – 30%
2050 – Climate Change Act- 80% reduction in CO2
emissions
2027 – UK Gov’t estimates (12/11):35-50GW of renewables,
10 - 15GW of nuclear
2012 to 2050: Population increases from
60m to 75m
2030 – 2050: electrification of transport and heat
100GW of renewables by 2050
Gap between future demand and existing
supply
235GW of total capacity by 2050
ONS forecasts 8% growth in population to 2021 to 68m. Biggest increases in:
London: 14.2%East: 10.2%South East: 9.2%East Midlands: 8.6%South West: 8.3%Yorkshire: 7.0%West Midlands: 6.8%
And it continues.....
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
NorthernIreland
Scotland
Wales
England
Urbanisation Trends
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
United Kingdom
+11mpeople
Bristol New Housing Requirements
Source: UN
UK Population also driving demand
No more coal and older plant retiring
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
20082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
Coal
Coal and gas CCS
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Renewables
Storage
Renewables – 45TWh/yr to 160 (2030)
New Nuclear – from 60TWh/yr to 100 (2030)
Gas from 90TWh/yr to 130 (2014 to 2016)
CCS from 0 to 35 TWh/yr (2017 to 2030)
TWh Generated per year from 2008 to 2030
(source: DECC October 2013)
100GW of New Capacity by 2030 (most from renewables)
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Storage
Interconnectors
Renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal and gas CCS
Coal
GW of NEW Generation Plant to 2030
(source: DECC October 2013)
Renewables – 23GW by 2020 and 46GW by 2030
Gas – 10GW by 2020 and 30GW by 2030
New Nuclear – 2GW by 2020 and 10GW by 2030
CCS – 1GW by 2020 and 5 GW by 2030
Some of the Challenge for Renewables
• Charting a long-term pathway through developing energy policy
• Balancing environmental gains (carbon emissions reduction) and impacts (ecology and habitats for example)
• Balancing low costs to the consumer but achieving sustainable levels of investment
• Developing both the financial and economic cases • Reducing development and technology costs
• Reducing the cost of capital through better management of risk
• Increasing UK supply chain development and participation
• The weather!
These challenges are inspiring to engineering and environment professionals alike – Good luck with your studies!