A key player in the solar field
PhotovoltaicElectricity production
from solar rays
CSPElectricity production from
concentrated solar heat
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AVANCIS
Contenu
Marchés: d’une dynamique portée par les tarifs subventionnés vers la viabilité
économique
Etat du marché
mondialPolitiques d’incitation au rachatTransition vers la parité
réseau
Chaîne de valeur, création d’emplois
Technologies Facteurs clé
dictés par le marché
Compétition c-Si / Couches MincesTechnologies alternatives
Market
grows
at
~30% annual
growth
rate
Courtesy
of European
Photovoltaic
Industry
Association
19%
23%
23%
34%
0% 1%Power Plant
CommercialRoofs
Farm
Roofs
ResidentialRoofs
Off-gridp
6,400
9,000
>10,000
Fortunately, module prices
are continuously
decreasing
with
quantities…
1
Module Price in 2010 ~ $2/Wp
, in 2015 will
be
~$1/Wp
System Price in 2010 ~ $5/Wp
, in 2015 will
be
~$2.5/Wp+ installation = SYSTEM
Module
Market
growth
is
completely
driven
by national Feed-In-Tariff
schemes
Exemple of Germany which
represents
55% of WW market
Germany has been veryexpert in applying
decrease
in tariff
withdecrease
in module prices(-
40% in 2009)
Exemple of Japan
who
hold
N°1 position for many
years
•First subsidized
programme in 1994
•Continuous
support during
12 years
•Stopped
the support in 2005
decrease
in number
of installations in 2006 & 2007
•New programme decided
for 2009 market
is
increasing
again
Exemple of Spain who
reached
N°1 position in 2008 and fell
right after
Too
generoustariff
+ lack
ofvisibility
leadsto bubble
•in 2005: Spain decides
an ambitious
plan for Renewables
with
an objective of 30% of electricity
production
•Purchase
price
of 45c/kWh
•in 2007, the «
cap
»
for PV was
increased
to 1200MW
•for 2009, the cap was
reduced
to 500MW
•Spanish
PV industry
is
still
struggling
to recover
Elements
for a good incentive
programme
Amount
is
adjusted
to give
an IRR between
6 and 10%
No financial
bubble
Smooth
increase
of installed
capacities
Decreases
with
size of installation
Conversion efficiency
is
the same
Distributed
energy
generation
and consumption
Reduced
cost/kWh for large plants
Premium to building vs ground
Less
environment
impact
Good public acceptance
Premium to self-consumption
Reduce
the risk
of grid
overload
Helps
promoting
energy
efficient construction
Put PV on new houses
and buildings
No retroactivity
of decisions
6 months
between
planning and connection
to grid
French FIT scheme: from
bubble
(dec
2009) to smooth
growth
?
Last change (march
2010): the 0,50€/kWh tariff
is
limited
to 250kWp
Is French tariff
a good incentive
programme ?
Amount
is
adjusted
to give
an IRR between
6 and 10%
No financial
bubble
Smooth
increase
of installed
capacities
Decreases
with
size of installation
Conversion efficiency
is
the same
Distributed
energy
generation
and consumption
Reduced
cost/kWh for large plants
Premium to building vs ground
Less
environment
impact
Good public acceptance
Premium to self-consumption
Reduce
the risk
of grid
overload
Helps
promoting
energy
efficient construction
Put PV on new houses
and buildings
No retroactivity
of decisions
6 months
between
planning and connection
N.A.
Incentives
Transition
Grid
parity
•Initially, adoption of FIT policies
or other
type of
support is
necessary
to establish
PV presence
in
the market
•With
time, FIT are reduced and new scheme
like
self-
consumption
is
favored
to avoid
grid
overload
by
intermittent energy
•Incentive
scheme
is
no longer necessary
because
the leveraged
cost
of electricity
is
identical
to
retail
price
from
the grid
. Smart grids
and storage
must be
implemented
FIT disappear with time
En Route to “Grid Parity”: Sunny regions strike gold firstDefinition
of grid
parity: Leveraged
Cost
Of Electricity
= retail
price
Source: RWE and Schott Solar
Calculation
relies on a good knowledge
of the kWh produced
over the life of the installation (25y) : illumination level, climate
effects
(T, wind), module degradation
over time, inverter
losses, amount
of financing
and interest
rate. For big
installation, the customer
will
ask
for a warranty
on the kWh output
Source: Deutsche Bank
Main risks
for PV industry
WW market
must remain
at
more than
10 GW/year
for a few years
in order
to achieve
grid
parity
and escape from
FIT and subsidies
Public deficitsGrowing
eco-skepticism
Volatility
of public opinionOil
price
France will
not reach
grid
parity
before
2015-2020 Change in EDF policy
(multi-energy
versus nuclear)
Insufficient
link
with
the (new) construction sectorInstability
of political
positionning
A french PV company
should
rather
be
active also
in Germany or Italy (or USA) to minimize
risk
Main production areas : Japan
Germany China (Taiwan)
Till 2006: Japanese
and German companies
acquire
leadership thanks to their
internal
marketsSince
2006: China and Taiwan invest massively
in c-Si sector
for exportPrice gap between
German
and Chinese
module (1.7 vs 1.3 €/Wp)c-Si Cells, Modules are commoditiesLarge integrated
manufacturersThin
Film likely
to secure
more value in Europe
Value analysis
and job creation
Rapport PoignantAssemblée NationaleJuillet 2009
Tax
credit
and high
tariff
in France maintains
high
system price
for residential
systems
Installation costs
are higher than
in Germany due to building integration
(in part)
Module cost
goes
down faster than
installation cost
More jobs are expected
in installation and maintenance than
in cell/module manufacturing
Competition
between
asian
actors will
maintain
overcapacities
and low
margins
in c-Si cell/module
Value decomposition (€/Wp)
0
2
4
6
8
10
2009 Res.France
2010 Res.France
2010 Res.Germany
2010 Ground
PV System, installed
Vente/InstallAdm/ConnexBOSModulingCell
Contenu
Marchés: d’une dynamique portée par les tarifs subventionnés vers la viabilité
économique
Etat du marché
mondialPolitiques d’incitation au rachatTransition vers la parité
réseau
Chaîne de valeur, création d’emplois
Technologies Facteurs clé
dictés par le marché
Compétition c-Si / Couches MincesTechnologies alternatives
PV installed
market
in MW in 2007
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Germany Spain USA Japan Italy France Ro
Asia RoW
MW
con
nect
ed
off gridfaçadesresidential
rooffarm
roofcommercial roofpower plant
Key drivers for the technology
Small Residential Large Commercial Ground
Plant€/Wp*€/kWhWp/m2
Aesthetic
(in part)
€/Wp*€/kWh
Warranty
on kWhBuilding compatible
€/Wp*€/kWh
Warranty
on kWhEnvironment
compatible
The market
is largely
technology- agnostic
Who
cares today
if its
TV is
Plasma or LCD ?
Regulations
have an impact on technological
choices
* installed
19%
23%
23%
34%
0% 1%
2009
2010
a
Thin
Film has fewer
process
steps
all in one place, more efficient cost
down with quantities
but…proven
Cryst-Silicon
technology
has a better
image of durability
+ -+ -+ -
On-glass monolithicIntegration
Scribe 1 Scribe 2 Scribe 3
Veeco
All the physics
of PV in one page !
Absorptioncoefficient
determinescell
thickness
c-Si = 80µmThinFilm=1µm
No (efficient) transparent
PV !!!
Main Thin
Film technologies in one page !!
1 µm
Silicium
Ag
TCO
Glass Substrate
IntercalaireGlass
SiOSn
a-Si:H
/ µc-Si:H
SnO2:F
Ag1 µmMetallic reflecting layer
Absorber
Transparent layer TCO
nip
PE-CVD
PE-CVD, HW-CVD
Sputtering, evaporation
a-Si:H, µc-Si:HPLX or Diamant
Solar + TCO
PLX
SnO2
: FCdS
CdTe
ZnTe:CuAl, Ti
TCOCouche
tampon
Absorber
Metallic reflecting layer
n
p
Couche
adhésion
Glass Substrate
IntercalaireGlass
PE-CVDChemical bath deposition
Closed Spaced
SublimationSCS
sputtering evaporation
CdTePLX or Diamant
Solar + TCO
PLX
TCO = Transparent Conducting Oxide = SnO2:F or ZnO:Al
Mo
CuInSe
CdSZnO
IntercalaireGlass
Glass Substrate
TCOCouche
tampon
Absorber
Metallic reflectinglayer sputtering
Chemical bath deposition
CVD, sputtering
Souttering/sélénisationOU Co-evaporation
CIGS
2 µm
Float Diamant
Solar
PLX + Mo
Some
materials
can
be
coated
on flexible substrates
with
Roll-to-Roll manufacturing
:
Foil a-Si CIGS
Metal Unisolar, Fuji ,
Xunlight
Global Solar, Miasolé, Nanosolar, Odersun, Solopower, Nexcis
Polymer Flexcell Ascent
Solar, Solarion
Higher
efficiency
modules have a higher
chance to win -
lower
manufacturing
cost: €/Wp
= €/Module x Module/Wp -
can
be
sold
at
a price
premium, due to lower
Bill of System (land, installation hardware) -
CIGS has the best margin
for progress
among
thin
film technologies
The permanent competition
on €/Wp
manufacturing
cost
16
Efficiency
(%)
12
14
18
20%
10
Efficiency
Module Price (€/Wp)
15%
p-Sic-Si
Sanyo
Sunpower
Cumulated
MW
a-Si µmorph
CdTe
8
CIGS
1 10 100 10%
Thin
Films
1
1.5
2
1000
Thin
Films
Crystalline
silicon
Status
2010
Importance of good timing: the success
story of First Solar
Shortage
of c-Si in the 2005-2008 period
maintains
high
module price
First Solar
was
able to sell
its
first modules above
$2/Wp
operating margin
of 40% in spite of huge
ramp-up costs
Installed
capacity
in 2010= 1200 MW
AVANCIS -
a large-scale technological and industrial challenge
> AVANCIS : 29 years in photovoltaic1981 ARCO Solar starts initial R&D on CIGS1990
Siemens Solar acquires ARCO Solar1998 Start of commercial CIGS production in Camarillo, CA2002
Shell Solar acquires Siemens Solar2004
Development of RTP process in Munich2006
Shell and Saint-Gobain form AVANCIS2009 AVANCIS becomes 100% Saint-Gobain
> An R&D centre in MunichAn experimental production line for 60 Wp
modules15.1% module efficiency demonstratedA test site for modules
> An ambitious program of production linesSince October 2008
the first 20 MW
plant in Torgau
(Germany) on a Saint-Gobain Glass siteProgram of fast industrial development on modular units
of 100 to 300 MW
Solar wall of the OpTIC
centre in North Wales
R&D centre in Munich
Plant in Torgau
Arguments in favor
of Thin
Films : kWh/kWp
efficiency
•Better
response
at
small
illumination levels(few %)
•STC measured
at
1000 W/m2, real life at
~300•This is
valid
for all thin
film technologies
•Better
behavior
at
elevated
temperatures(few %)
•Temperature
coefficient is
semiconductor related
•Valid
for CdTe
and a-Si only
•A-Si gives
higher
kWh/kWp
than
others(+ few %)
•due to above
factors
+ module makers
rating their
nominal power as «
stabilized
efficiency
»
Arguments in favor
of Thin
Films : Energy
Pay-Back
Time & CO2 content
•Recycling
policies
in place : PV Cycle, First Solar
•Chemical
availability
of some
elements
will
become
a concern
(after
10GW)•Issues for Te, In new phases like
new alloy
of Cu-Sn-Zn-S or-Se by IBM (2010)
V. Fthenakis
et al., PV-SEC Hamburg, 2009
c-Si case studyREC
Thin
Film case study: First Solar
Alternative technologies : yes
if low
€/Wp
or new feature
(low
weight)
•Established
technologies will
not give
up without
fighting
•Hybrids
or multiple gaps using
existing
technological
base seem
les risky
•Flexible allow
reduced
manufacturing
capex
thank
to Roll-to-Roll equipment
•High efficiency
triple junction
(III-V) with
concentration if cost
can
be
reduced
•Organic
if durability
is
improved
Contact:
Thank youSG Solar
Sunstyle®
: 9MW being installed in Perpignan
Sources: H2G (Jacques Schmitt), EPIA, DB, Rapport PoignantSaint-Gobain RechercheSaint-Gobain SolarSaint-Gobain Solar
SystemsAVANCIS