2nd wave 2014
Political Opinion Barometer
33
Pre
ss r
ep
ort
2 Contents
Contents
1. Technical specifications
2. Main results
Press report based on the results of the Political Opinion Barometer. 2nd wave 2014
Corresponding to the Register of Opinion Studies number 758
Press Report, BOP. 2nd wave 2014
3
Technical specifications Press report, Public Opinion Barometer (BOP). 2nd wave 2014
1
4 Technical specifications
Summary
Scope: Catalonia
Univers: Spanish citizens of 18 years of age and more who live in Catalonia
Method of data collection:
Computer Assisted Personal Interview (CAPI)
Sampling procedure:
Stratification by province and town size, with selection of last sample units (individuals) using sex and age crossed
quotas.
Town size is divided into 6 categories: • less or equal to 2,000 inhabitants
• from 2,001 and 10,000 inhabitants
• from 10,001 and 50,000 inhabitants
• from 50,001 and 150,000 inhabitants
• from 150,001 and 1,000,000 inhabitants
• more than 1 million inhabitants
To calculate the quotas we use the official statistics from the Padró continu de població from the year 2012. The age
quotas correspond to the following intervals: • 18 to 24 years of age
• 25 to 34 years of age
• 35 to 49 years of age
• 50 to 64 years of age
• 65 and more years of age
Level of confidence: 95%
Variance p=q=50%
Sample size: 2,000 individuals
Sampling error: + 2.69%
Press Report, BOP. 2nd wave 2014
5
Sample size:
2,000 interviews with the following territorial distribution:
• Barcelona 800
• Girona 400
• Lleida 400
• Tarragona 400
Allocation:
Not proportional. To obtain representative figures for the whole Catalan population, the results have been weighted by
the following territorial weights:
• Barcelona 1.864609957
• Girona 0.465810004
• Lleida 0.286327498
• Tarragona 0.518642584
Sampling error:
The overall margin of error of the survey is + 2.69%, for a confidence level of 95% (1.96 sigma) and under the assumption
of maximum indetermination (p=q=50%). In each province the margins of error are:
• Barcelona + 3.46%
• Girona + 4.90%
• Lleida + 4.90%
• Tarragona + 4.90%
Fieldwork:
The fieldwork has been performed by Opinòmetre, from the 29th of September to the 23th of October 2014.
Technical specifications
Press Report, BOP. 2nd wave 2014
6
Main results Press report, Political Opinion Barometer (BOP). 2nd wave 2014
2
7
Next, I will read a number of institutions. Please rate the degree of
confidence you have in each one of these institutions in a scale from 0 to 10,
where 0 means no confidence at all and 10 means a lot of confidence.
(N=2,000; simple response; means by institution where 0 is no confidence at all and 10 a lot of confidence)
Question 21
Attitudes towards polítics
Press Report, BOP. 2nd wave 2014
5.24
5.16
5.02
4.70
4.60
4.37
4.29
4.15
3.97
3.52
3.51
3.32
2.99
2.87
2.80
2.42
2.40
2.18
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Mass media
Mossos d'Esquadra (Catalan police)
City council
UN
Parliament of Catalonia
Government of the Generalitat (Catalan Government)
EU
Spanish National Police and Guardia Civil
Courts of justice
Spanish army
Trade unions
Political parties
Congreso de los Diputados (Spanish Parliament)
Constitutional Court
Catholic Church
Spanish monarchy
Central government (Spain)
Banks
No confidence at all A lot of confidence
8
Do you think that Catalonia has achieved...
(N=2,000; simple response; %)
Question 29
Political values
Relations between Catalonia and Spain
Press Report, BOP. 2nd wave 2014
2.6
21.7
69.2
5.9 0.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Too much autonomy A suficient level of autonomy
An insuficient level of autonomy
Do not know Do not answer
3,8 4,6 3,9 2,3 2,6
19,2 19,1 20,6 24,2 21,7
71,2 72,5 70,4 66,6 69,2
0
20
40
60
80
100
Feb.13 June 13 Nov. 13 Mar. 14 Oct. 14
Too much autonomy Suficient Insuficient
9
Do you believe that Catalonia should be...
(N=2,000; simple response; %)
Question 30
Political values
Press Report, BOP. 2nd wave 2014
1.8
23.4 22.2
45.3
6.5
0.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
A region of Spain An autonomous community of Spain
A state in a federal Spain
An independent state Do not know Do not answer
4,4 4,6 5,4
2,6
1,8
20,7 22,8
18,6
23,3
23,4
22,4 21,2 21,3
20,0
22,2
46,4 47,0 48,5 45,2 45,3
0
10
20
30
40
50
Feb.13 June 13 Nov. 13 Mar. 14 Oct. 14
Region AC Federal state Independent state
10
Question 31a + 31b
Political values
P31a. What would you vote in this question: “Do you want Catalonia to become a State?”
P31b. And in this other question: “Do you want this State to be independent?”
(direct vote intention combining the two questions; %)
Press Report, BOP. 2nd wave 2014
(n) % (n) %
Vote YES 987 49.4
Vote NO 252 12.6
Null 0 0.0
Blank 1 0.0
Abstain 8 0.4
Cannot vote 0 0.0
Do not know 30 1.5
Do not answer 6 0.3
Subtotal 1,284 64.2
Vote NO 394 19.7 19.7
Null 2 0.1 0.1
Blank 20 1.0 1.0
Abstain 137 6.9 6.9
Cannot vote 0 0.0 0.0
Do not know 140 7.0 7.0
Do not answer 24 1.2 1.2
Total 2,000 100.0 Total 2,000 100.0
First question
Votaria YES 1284 64.2
Second question
11
YES + YES 49.4 2.3 79.8 91.5 13.6 44.9 0.0 87.8 26.4
YES + NO 12.6 4.2 7.1 3.6 9.8 32.8 11.7 5.6 32.2
YES + Blank 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
YES + Abst 0.4 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.0
YES + DkDa 1.8 0.0 1.3 1.7 0.2 11.9 1.2 1.5 0.0
NO 19.7 79.8 6.5 1.7 54.5 3.2 65.9 0.0 29.2
Null + Blank 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
Abstention 6.9 12.7 1.4 0.2 8.3 0,0 12.8 0.4 4.1
Dk/Da 8.2 1,0 3.1 0.9 11.6 6.5 8.5 2.7 6.4
Real base 2000 45 308 482 94 62 50 143 115
Weighted base 2000 44 277 428 117 74 44 123 123
Non-binding referendum vote by vote intention to the Catalan Parliament
Question 31a + 31b
Political values
(direct vote intention combining the two questions; %)
Press Report, BOP. 2nd wave 2014
P31a. What would you vote in this question: “Do you want Catalonia to become a State?”
P31b. And in this other question: “Do you want this State to be independent?”
12
Do you consider yourself an independentist?
(N=2,000; simple response; %)
Question 45
Political values
Press Report, BOP. 2nd wave 2014
Yes, I have always been independentist; 28.2%
Yes, I have become [independentist] during these
last years; 20.9%
No, I don't consider myself an independentist; 48.5%
Dk + Da; 2.3%
13
If Catalonia was an independent state, how would the living standards of the
Catalan people be, according to you?
(N=2,000; simple response; %)
Question 32
Political values
Press Report, BOP. 2nd wave 2014
45.1
18.1 21.7
14.7
0.4 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Better than now The same as now Worse than now Do not know Do not answer
51,2 45,1 45,1
17,9 16,7 18,1
21,9 23,1 21,7
0
20
40
60
80
100
Feb.13 June 13 Nov. 13 Mar. 14 Oct. 14
Better than now The same as now Worse than now
14
If Catalonia was an independent state, how would the coexistence [social
harmony] among the Catalan people be, according to you?
(N=2,000; simple response; %)
Question 33
Political values
Press Report, BOP. 2nd wave 2014
20.7
52.1
18.4
8.5
0.3 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Better than now The same as now Worse than now Do not know Do not answer
22,0 20,7
46,0 52,1
20,4 18,4 0
20
40
60
80
100
Feb.13 Juny 13 Nov. 13 Març 14 Oct. 14
Better than now The same as now Worse than now
15
If Catalonia was an independent state, how likely would it be that it would
stay automatically out of the European Union, according to you?
(N=2,000; simple response; %)
Question 34
Political values
Press Report, BOP. 2nd wave 2014
19.9 20.8 25.7
18.9 14.5
0.3 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Very likely Rather likely Not very likely Not at all likely Do not know Do not answer
44,9
40,7 37,6
44,6
0
20
40
60
80
100
Feb.13 June 13 Nov. 13 Mar. 14 Oct. 14
Very+ rather likely Not very + not at all likely
16
To what extent do you think it is likely that the Spanish government will
finally offer an agreement that would be acceptable for a majority of the
Catalan Parliament?
(N=2,000; simple response; %)
Question 35
Political values
Press Report, BOP. 2nd wave 2014
4.3
14.9
31.6 35.4
13.6
0.3 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Very likely Rather likely Not very likely Not at all likely Do not know Do not answer
23,7 19,2
64,7 67,0
0
20
40
60
80
100
Feb.13 Juny 13 Nov. 13 Mar. 14 Oct. 14
Very+ rather likely Not very + not at all likely
17
If elections to the Catalan Parliament were to be held tomorrow, what party or coalition would
you vote for?
(N=2,000; simple response; %;)
Question 37
Elections to the Parliament of Catalonia
Elections to the Catalan Parliament: vote intention
Previous Barometer
Press Report, BOP. 2nd wave 2014
2.2
13.8
21.4
5.8
3.7
2.2
6.2
6.2
2.4
4.4
1.4
11.9
15.3
3.1
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
PPC
CIU
ERC
PSC
ICV-EUiA
C's
CUP
Podemos
Others
Blank
Null vote
Will not vote
Undecided
Do not answer
1,6
14,5
20,0
6,1
5,0
4,0
6,4
1,2
5,0
1,3
14,8
16,9
3,2
0 10 20 30 40 50
PPC
CIU
ERC
PSC
ICV-EUiA
C's
CUP
Others
Blank
Null vote
Will not vote
Undecided
Do not answer
18
In particular, which one of the following sentences best describes your situation in the
past elections to the Parliament of Catalonia held on November 2012?
(N=2,000; simple response; %)
Question 38a
Elections to the Parliament of Catalonia
Press Report, BOP. 2nd wave 2014
Elections to the Catalan Parliament: vote recall
3.9
17.5
0.5
0.9
75.4
1.6
0.2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
I didn't vote because I couldn't (age, illness...)
I didn't vote
I thought of voting but finally didn't do it
I usually vote, but not this time
I am sure I voted
Do not know
Do not answer
12,9 15,1 16,5 23,0 22,8
86,6 84,4 83,0 75,6 75,4
0
20
40
60
80
100
Feb.13 June 13 Nov. 13 Mar. 14 Oct. 14
Didn't vote Voted Real turnout
19
And could you tell me to what party or coalition did you vote for in the last elections to
the Parliament of Catalonia?
(N=2,000; simple response; %)
Question 38b
Elections to the Parliament of Catalonia
Real vote 2012 (% over the electoral census)
Previous Barometer
Press Report, BOP. 2nd wave 2014
Elections to the Catalan Parliament: vote recall
2.7
20.7
19.3
7.5
5.4
2.0
4.1
1.8
2.7
0.5
22.8
5.4
5.4
8.71
20.62
9.20
9.69
6.64
5.08
2.34
3.89
0.98
0.61
32.24
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
PPC
CIU
ERC
PSC
ICV-EUIA
C's
CUP
Altres
Blank vote
Null vote
Did not vote
Do not know
Do not answer
2.4
21.3
15.7
9.6
4.1
2.5
4.5
1.8
3.4
0.6
23.0
5.3
5.8
0 10 20 30 40 50
PPC
CIU
ERC
PSC
ICV-EUIA
C's
CUP
Altres
Blank vote
Null vote
Did not vote
Do not know
Do not answer
20
If elections to the Congreso de los Diputados were to be held tomorrow, what
party or coalition would you vote for?
(N=2,000; simple response; %)
Question 39
Elections to the Congreso de los Diputados
Previous Barometer
Elections to the Congreso de los Diputados: vote intention
Press Report, BOP. 2nd wave 2014
2.8
11.3
18.4
6.9
3.6
1.4
3.1
10.7
2.5
5.0
1.7
14.7
14.8
3.2
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
PPC
CIU
ERC
PSC
ICV-EUiA
C's
CUP
Podemos
Others
Blank vote
Null vote
Will not vote
Undecided
Do not answer
2.1
13.2
17.4
7.2
5.8
3.1
3.4
1.3
6.3
1.8
17.1
18.1
3.2
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
PPC
CIU
ERC
PSC
ICV-EUiA
C's
CUP
Others
Blank vote
Null vote
Will not vote
Undecided
Do not answer
21
Pregunta 40a In particular, which of the following sentences best describes your situation in
the past elections to the Congreso de los Diputados:
(N=2,000; simple response; %)
Press Report, BOP. 2nd wave 2014
Elections to the Congreso de los Diputados: vote recall
Elections to the Congreso de los Diputados
5.0
21.1
0.5
0.8
69.6
2.8
0.3
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
I didn't vote because I couldn't (age, illness...)
I didn't vote
I thought of voting but finally didn't do it
I usually vote, but not this time
I am sure I voted
Do not know
Do not answer
18,2 20,4 21,5 26,1 27,4
80,2 77,8 76,4 70,1 69,6
0
20
40
60
80
100
Feb.13 June 13 Nov. 13 Mar. 14 Oct. 14
Didn't vote Voted Real turnout
22
Pregunta 40b
Previous barometer
Real vote 2011 (% over electoral census)
If elections to the Congreso de los Diputados were to be held tomorrow, what
party or coalition would you vote for?
(N=2,000; simple response; %)
Press Report, BOP. 2nd wave 2014
Elections to the Congreso de los Diputados: vote recall
Elections to the Congreso de los Diputados
4.1
16.6
15.5
10.7
6.2
0.7
0.6
1.8
3.3
0.8
27.4
6.8
5.4
13.63
19.31
4.65
17.52
5.32
4.13
1.22
1.06
33.18
0 10 20 30 40 50
PPC
CIU
ERC
PSC
ICV-EUiA
C's
CUP
Others
Blank vote
Null vote
Did not vote
Do not know
Do not …
4.5
17.4
12.4
12.4
5.4
1.5
0.7
1.1
3.7
1.3
26.1
7.9
5.7
0 10 20 30 40 50
PPC
CIU
ERC
PSC
ICV-EUiA
C's
CUP
Others
Blank vote
Null vote
Did not vote
Do not know
Do not answer
23
How do you rate the political performance of these leaders? Please rate them in a scale from 0
to 10, where 0 is very poor and 10 is excellent. (Base: know the leader; simple response; average)
Question 41a
Electoral behaviour
Ratings of political leaders
Press Report, BOP. 2nd wave 2014
Alfred Bosch 5.63 0.88 6.19 7.02 4.05 4.92 1.55 5.61 2.62
David Fernàndez 5.58 0.55 5.15 6.3 3.16 5.64 1.74 7.95 4.1
Oriol Junqueras 5.53 1.33 6.93 7.68 3.66 5.67 1.82 6.23 3.69
Joan Herrera 4.84 1.69 4.93 5.33 4.44 6.89 2.8 4.73 4.59
Artur Mas 4.77 1.66 7.92 6.52 3.3 4.49 1.79 4.66 2.65
Joan Coscubiela 4.71 1.32 4.71 5.32 3.69 5.96 3.27 4.71 3.76
Josep Antoni Duran i Lleida 3.85 4.21 5.12 3.39 4.44 3.83 4.85 1.99 3.55
Miquel Iceta 3.64 2.99 4.13 3.54 4.87 4.49 3.58 2.19 3.44
Jaume Collboni 3.55 3,00 4.52 3.76 3.34 3.85 3.18 1.89 3.82
Albert Rivera 2.57 5.44 2.26 1.55 3.63 3.12 7.57 0.98 2.95
Jorge Fernández Díaz 1.95 5.59 2.14 1.4 2.44 2.37 4.78 0.67 1.62
Alícia Sánchez-Camacho 1.51 6.5 1.03 0.71 1.92 1.6 4.48 0.44 1.23
Real base 2000 45 308 482 94 62 50 143 115
Weighted base 2000 44 277 428 117 74 44 123 123
Rating by vote intention to the Catalan Parliament
24 Appendix 1
Cross-tabulation of vote recall and vote intention to the elections of the Parliament of Catalonia.
Press Report, BOP. 2nd wave 2014
Others/NullBlank
vote
Did not
voteDk/Da
Total
60.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 2.0 0.0 2.2
6.0 55.0 2.6 2.4 0.0 1.3 0.6 0.0 4.8 4.0 3.9 4.4 13.8
0.0 13.6 76.5 2.1 6.5 0.0 9.6 0.0 8.0 1.0 9.1 6.6 21.4
1.8 1.5 0.5 49.6 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0. 6.9 4.9 3.4 5.8
0.0 1.4 1.7 2.5 45.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.9 3.7
5.0 0.4 0.6 2.7 0.0 60.6 0.0 0.0 4.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 2.2
0.0 2.2. 6.1 1.3 7.3 0.0 83.5 0.0 6.0 0.0 1.8 1.5 6.2
1.9 2.5 3.0 11.4 11.7 11.7 1.2 83.5 4.8 13.8 8.7 5.2 6.2
Others/Null 5.0 1.7 0.8 3.9 5.2 4.7 2.3 0.0 47.9 4.4 3.2 5.8 3.8
Blank vote 11.2 2.7 0.8 3.0 0.0. 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 42.9 5.9 5.0 4.4
Will not vote 4.9 5.2 1.3 4.7 8.4 6.7 2.3 0.0 14.3 6.1 35.4 8.7 11.9
Dk/Da 4.0 13.6 6.1 16.2 15.0 9.5 0.6 8.3 9.5 16.5 22.8 57.5 18.4
Total 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0
Base real 50 454 322 163 68 39 95 95 44 59 483 223 2000
Base ponderada 47 426 315 192 83 50 90 90 48 68 459 222 2000
Vote recall to the Catalan Parliament 2012
Vote
inte
ntio
n to the C
ata
lan P
arlia
ment
25 Appendix 2
Elections to the Parliament of Catalonia
Political Opinion Barometer, 2nd wave 2014
Direct vote
intention
Vote
estimates Sit
estimates
Resultats 2012
(in %) (in % over valid
vote) %VV escons
CiU 13.8 19.4 32-32 30.7 50
ERC 21.4 23.2 38-39 13.7 21
PSC 5.8 11.2 14-16 14.4 20
PP 2.2 8.6 11-13 13.0 19
ICV-EUiA 3.7 7.2 8-9 9.9 13
C's 2.2 7.0 8-9 7.6 9
CUP 6.2 6.5 8-9 3.5 3
Podemos 6.2 8.5 10-11
others 2.4 6.5 --- 5.7 ---
blank vote 4.4 1.9 1.5 ---
null vote 1.4
Abstention (“will not vote") 11.9
Undecided 15.3
Do not answer 3.1
Press Report, BOP. 2nd wave 2014
26 Appendix 2
Elections to the Congreso de los Diputados
Political Opinion Barometer, 2nd wave 2014
Direct
intention
Vote
estimates Sit
estimates
Results 2011
(in %) (in % over valid
vote) %VV sits
CiU 11.3 18.0 10-12 29.4 16
PSC 6.9 15.0 8-9 26.7 14
PP 2.8 11.1 5-6 20.7 11
ICV-EUiA 3.6 5.1 2 8.1 3
ERC 18.4 21.0 12-13 7.1 3
C's 1.4 2.5 0-1
6.3 0 CUP 3.1 3.8 1
Podemos 10.7 14.0 7-8
others 2.5 7.9 ---
blank votes 5.0 1.6 1.9
null votes 1.8
Abstention (“will not vote") 14.7
Undecided 14.8
Do not answer 3.2
Press Report, BOP. 2nd wave 2014