Predicting Solar Magnetic Field at Earth
Dusan OdstrcilGeorge Mason University & NASA/GSFC/Space Weather Laboratory
MURI/NADIR Workshop Boulder, CO October 27-28, 2010
Background Solar Wind by FR Coronal Maps
MAS and WSA coronal FR maps provide Br only
ENLIL introduces Bphi at the inner boundary
Initially Btheta = 0; weak Bz by stream interaction
and seasonal effect
Bz in Simulations with FR Maps
Transient Disturbances
Modeling of the origin of CMEs is still in the research phases and it is not expected that real events can be routinely simulated in near future. Therefore, we have developed an intermediate modeling system which uses the WSA coronal maps, fitted coronagraph observations, specifies 3D ejecta, and drives 3D numerical code ENLIL.
IMF Draped by an ICME
“External” Bz Periods – Shock Compression
Shock to north, positive IMF: + Shock to north, negative IMF: -
Shock to south, positive IMF: - Shock to south, negative IMF: +
“External” Bz Periods – ICME Draping
Above ICME center, positive IMF: - + Above ICME center, negative IMF: + -
Below ICME center, positive IMF: + - Below ICME center, negative IMF: - +
Bz in Simulations with FR Maps and Cone
Bz in Simulations with FR Maps and Cone
May 12, 1997 – Interplanetary CME
MAS coronal model (PSI) ENLIL heliospheric model (GMU-NASA /GSFC)
Self-consistent end-to-end numerical simulation of space weather event(NSF/CISM effort in progress)
2008 April 26 CME with Rope Model
( Thernisien et al., 2009 ) ( WSA-1.6-GONG-CR2069 )
Launching Flux-Rope-Like Structure (2005-05-13)
Flux-Rope-Like Structure – Hydrodynamic
Flux-Rope-Like Structure – With 2D Magnetic Field
High-Resolution ICME Simulation – HD
High-Resolution Simulation
Conclusion
Solar Wind – Fully-automatic forecasting (Weak Bz events only)
ICMEs/fitted coronagraph observations – Semi-automatic forecasting (Moderate Bz by draping and shock compression)
ICMEs/self-consistent eruption– In active research (strong Bz)
ICMEs/semi-empirical flux ropes – Semi-automatic forecasting might ne possible (strong Bz)