J.-P.Hettelingh, M. Posch, J. Slootweg, Working Group on Effects, Geneva, 22-24 Sept, 2010
Revision of the heavy metal protocol: calculation of emissions, costs, depositions and
exceedances of four scenarios
Project commissioned by the Dutch ministry of VROM
to
TNO, EMEP-MSCE and the CCE
J.-P.Hettelingh, M. Posch, J. Slootweg, Working Group on Effects, Geneva, 22-24 Sept, 2010
4 scenarios
Emissions (tonnes)
CLE 2010
FIHM 2020
Option 2 Option 1
Cd 332 235 189 159
Pb 5 908 3 977 3 112 2 380
Hg 255 280 219 213
J.-P.Hettelingh, M. Posch, J. Slootweg, Working Group on Effects, Geneva, 22-24 Sept, 2010
Cadmium deposition
CLE2010 Option 1
J.-P.Hettelingh, M. Posch, J. Slootweg, Working Group on Effects, Geneva, 22-24 Sept, 2010
Lead deposition
CLE2010 Option 1
J.-P.Hettelingh, M. Posch, J. Slootweg, Working Group on Effects, Geneva, 22-24 Sept, 2010
Mercury deposition
CLE2010 Option 1
J.-P.Hettelingh, M. Posch, J. Slootweg, Working Group on Effects, Geneva, 22-24 Sept, 2010
Critical loads, effects
Effect 1 Human health effects Drinking water
Effect 2 Human health effects Food quality
Effect 3 Ecotoxicological effects Terrestrial ecosystems
Effect 4 Ecotoxicological effects Aquatic ecosystems
Effect 5 [Hg] Human health effects Fish
Results of call for data 2005 + update in 200617 parties, ~ million ecosystems + EU-background database
J.-P.Hettelingh, M. Posch, J. Slootweg, Working Group on Effects, Geneva, 22-24 Sept, 2010
Exceedance critical load of Cadmium
CLE2010 Option 1
Critical loads are exceeded in 0.6% (CLE2010), 0.4% (FIMH), 0.2% (Opt2), 0.1% (Opt1) of natural areas in the EMEP domain.
J.-P.Hettelingh, M. Posch, J. Slootweg, Working Group on Effects, Geneva, 22-24 Sept, 2010
Exceedance critical load of lead
CLE2010 Option 1
Critical loads are exceeded in 20 % (CLE2010), 14 % (FIMH), 13 % (Opt2), 11 % (Opt1) of natural areas in the EMEP domain.
J.-P.Hettelingh, M. Posch, J. Slootweg, Working Group on Effects, Geneva, 22-24 Sept, 2010
Exceedance critical load of mercury
CLE2010 Option 1
Critical loads are exceeded in about 71 % (CLE2010), 71 % (FIMH), 69 % (Opt2), 69 % (Opt1) of natural areas in the EMEP domain.
J.-P.Hettelingh, M. Posch, J. Slootweg, Working Group on Effects, Geneva, 22-24 Sept, 2010
Uncertainty; assigning source of resuspension
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Mon
tene
gro
Mon
aco
Bos
nia_
Her
zego
vina
Slo
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aLu
xem
bour
gM
aced
onia
Bel
gium
Net
herla
nds
Alb
ania
Ukr
aine
Ser
bia
Slo
veni
aP
olan
dIta
lyG
erm
any
Cro
atia
Cze
ch_R
epub
licB
ulga
riaH
unga
ryR
oman
iaR
epub
lic_o
f_M
oldo
vaG
reec
eK
yrgy
zsta
nB
elar
usA
rmen
iaA
zerb
aija
nA
ustr
iaLi
thua
nia
Taj
ikis
tan
Geo
rgia
Sw
itzer
land
Fra
nce
Latv
iaD
enm
ark
Est
onia
Spa
inT
urke
yU
nite
d_K
ingd
omP
ortu
gal
Mal
taIr
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sR
ussi
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ayT
urkm
enis
tan
Icel
andP
b d
ep
osi
tion
, kg
/km
2 /y
non-EMEP
Re-suspension
Anthrop. (Scenario 1)
•Historic depositions•Fertiliser & manure•Mineral
J.-P.Hettelingh, M. Posch, J. Slootweg, Working Group on Effects, Geneva, 22-24 Sept, 2010
Uncertainty of deposition and
environmental effects
• Resuspension of heavy metals is currently not assigned to sources of Parties to the Convention.
• It is unlikely that more knowledge on resuspension will stop exceedances by lead and mercury depositions from being widespread.
• Further analysis of environmental effects of heavy metal deposition including the treatment of resuspension, may need to include dynamic modelling.
J.-P.Hettelingh, M. Posch, J. Slootweg, Working Group on Effects, Geneva, 22-24 Sept, 2010
Ecotoxogological effects
Critical loads: [HM]free,crit => Critical Load
Reversed path: Deposition => [HM] free (at steady state)
Dose-response function (RIVM):
[HM] free => effects on species
J.-P.Hettelingh, M. Posch, J. Slootweg, Working Group on Effects, Geneva, 22-24 Sept, 2010
Thank you !
Emissions: [email protected]
Depositions: [email protected]
Exceedances: [email protected]
(CCE Status Report 2010, TNO report)
J.-P.Hettelingh, M. Posch, J. Slootweg, Working Group on Effects, Geneva, 22-24 Sept, 2010
Objectives of the study
• Assess the impact of the revision of the heavy metal protocol with respect to :– Emissions, measures
– Depositions• [email protected]
– Critical load exceedances• [email protected]
(CCE Status Report 2010, TNO report)
J.-P.Hettelingh, M. Posch, J. Slootweg, Working Group on Effects, Geneva, 22-24 Sept, 2010
4 scenarios
• CLE2010: Current legislation in 2010• FIHM: Full implementation of HM protocol in 2020; • Option 1 of the amended HM protocol for dust plus
measures to abate mercury emissions (ECE/EB.AIR/WG.5/2010/10)
• Option 2 of the amended HM protocol for dust plus measure to abate mercury emissions (ECE/EB.AIR/WG.5/2010/10)
J.-P.Hettelingh, M. Posch, J. Slootweg, Working Group on Effects, Geneva, 22-24 Sept, 2010
Cadmium sectoral emissions
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2010 CLE 2020 CLE 2020 FIHM 2020 Opt1 2020 Opt2
Em
issi
on
(to
nn
es/y
r) 9 Waste
8 Non-Road transport
7 Road transport
6 Solvent use
5 Fossil fuel production
4 Industrial production
3 Industrial combustion
2 Residential combustion
1 Energy industries
29%
332
52%
Energy industries
Industrialcombustion
Residentialcombustion
Industrialproduction 43%
J.-P.Hettelingh, M. Posch, J. Slootweg, Working Group on Effects, Geneva, 22-24 Sept, 2010
Lead emissions
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2010 CLE 2020 CLE 2020 FIHM 2020 Opt1 2020 Opt2
Em
iss
ion
(to
nn
es
/yr) 9 Waste
8 Non-Road transport
7 Road transport
6 Solvent use
5 Fossil fuel production
4 Industrial production
3 Industrial combustion
2 Residential combustion
1 Energy industries
5900
33% 60% 47%
Energy industries
Residentialcombustion
Industrialcombustion
Industrialproduction
Roadtransport
J.-P.Hettelingh, M. Posch, J. Slootweg, Working Group on Effects, Geneva, 22-24 Sept, 2010
Mercury emissions
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2010 CLE 2020 CLE 2020 FIHM 2020 Opt1 2020 Opt2
Em
iss
ion
(to
nn
es
/yr) 9 Waste
8 Non-Road transport
7 Road transport
6 Solvent use
5 Fossil fuel production
4 Industrial production
3 Industrial combustion
2 Residential combustion
1 Energy industries
+10%
16% 14%
255
Energy industries
J.-P.Hettelingh, M. Posch, J. Slootweg, Working Group on Effects, Geneva, 22-24 Sept, 2010
Exceedance critical concentration of mercury
J.-P.Hettelingh, M. Posch, J. Slootweg, Working Group on Effects, Geneva, 22-24 Sept, 2010
Input from manure & fertiliser
J.-P.Hettelingh, M. Posch, J. Slootweg, Working Group on Effects, Geneva, 22-24 Sept, 2010
(Re)Suspension ?
J.-P.Hettelingh, M. Posch, J. Slootweg, Working Group on Effects, Geneva, 22-24 Sept, 2010
Final conclusions (1:2)
• FIMH leads to substantial reductions in EMEP Parties to the Convention, not part of EU27, except CHE and NOR. (Reduction of 120, 2253 and 12 tonnes for Cd, Pb and Hg respectively)
• Option 2 reduces a further 46 and 866 tonnes yr-1 of Cd and Pb. Option 2 is a realistic choice if the ambition is to revise the HM protocol on par with the IPPC BAT Directive
• Under Option 1, 76 and 1598 tonnes yr-1of Cd and Pb are reduced additional the FIMH. Therefore, substantial further reductions are achieved under Option 1.
• Hg emission reductions are roughly similar between Option 1 and option 2, mostly because gaseous Hg reductions don’t differ.
J.-P.Hettelingh, M. Posch, J. Slootweg, Working Group on Effects, Geneva, 22-24 Sept, 2010
Conclusions (2:2)• High flow rates of of emissions of coal fired power plants lead to
substantial emissions of gaseous Hg, in spite of ELV < 0.03 mg Nm-3 (selective removal of gaseous Hg from PP flue gasses are not addressed in IPPC BAT),
• Amending the HM protocol according to Option 1 and 2 may bring about considerable reduction of PM2.5.emissions in Europe,
• Costs of revision of the HM protocol for UNECE Europe are estimated to be 11.6, 1.3 and 2.6 billion € for Option 1, Option 2 and the addition Hg emission reduction measures respectively,
• While the emission reductions are reflected in the lowering of critical load exceedances everywhere, still broad parts of Europe’s nature remain at risk,
• Uncertainty analysis requires further assessment of the state of implementation in CLE and of the treatment of resuspended deposition.
J.-P.Hettelingh, M. Posch, J. Slootweg, Working Group on Effects, Geneva, 22-24 Sept, 2010
Call for data
• Critical loads for nitrogen and acidification
On EMEP 5 * 5 km grid– GIS operations, grid file will be available
• Empirical N loads– Additional and updated ranges and modifying
factors from Noordwijkerhoudt
• Next steps for soil + vegetation model-combinations, site specific