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Public Attitudes toward Integrated Urban
Design & Transport Strategies toReduce Carbon Emissions
Kris Wernstedt* and Aurash Khawarzad
Associate Professor, Urban Affairs & Planning Virginia
Tech University, Alexandria, Virginia USA([email protected])
Salzburg Congress on Urban Planning and Development
Schloss Leopoldskron, Salzburg, Austria
May 16, 2008
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thanks to
Randolph, John and Gilbert M. Masters. 2008:
Energy for Sustainability: Technology, Planning,
Policy. Washington, DC: Island Press.
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Focus on Three Issues
Energy Use in Transportation 1/3 of US energy use today
2/3 of US oil use
32% of carbon emissions
Land Use Patterns consumptive, dispersed, auto-dependent
homogeneous, segregated uses among housing, shopping, office/businessparks, large civic institutions
roadways heavily dependent on collector roads
Energy Use in Buildings
1/2 of US energy use today 40% of carbon emissions
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2005: 468 QWorld Energy Consumption
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year
Quadrillion
BTU
500
Growing Demand for Energy
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U.S. EIA Estimate of Global Oil Peak based on USGS mean ultimate recover(sharp peak postpones peak but would be fatal to the economy)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125
Billion
Barre
lsper
Year
History
Mean
USGS Estimates of Ultimate Recovery
Ultimate Recovery
Probability BBls
-------------------- ---------
Low (95 %) 2,248
Mean (expected value) 3,003
High (5 %) 3,896
7.8% Growth1963-1973
2% Growth& Decline
High Prices CanAffect Demand4.1% Decline
1979-1983
2016
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T h e En d o f Ch ea p OilOil Reserves
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The Good News:Improved Efficiency of U.S. and (World) Economy (Energy/$GDP)
Energy Intensity in the United States 1949 - 2005
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
thousandBtu/$(in$2000)
If intensity dropped at pre-1973 rate of 0.4%/year
Actual (E/GDP drops 2.1%/year)
Art Rosenfeld
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$700 Bil l ion in Savings since 1973:1/ 3 from building efficiency, 1/ 3 vehicle efficiency, 1/ 3 structural change in economy
Energy Consumption in the United States 1949 - 2005
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Quads
$ 1.7
Trillion
$ 1.0Trillion
New Physical Supply = 25 Q
Avoided Supply = 70 Quads in 2005
If E/GDP had dropped 0.4% per year
Actual (E/GDP drops 2.1% per year)
Art Rosenfeld
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U.S. Energy Use by Sector
Industry flat, others growing
P l hi l il fi
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Congestion
Personal vehicles: our oil fix
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More Transportation Trends
What if the oil-intensive U.S. patterns of transportation,dominated by personal vehicles, are adopted by developingcountries? implication for oil markets, GHG emissions, and urban air pollution?
about 800 million vehicles in the world today
China and India each now has middle class population exceeding thetotal U.S. population.
vehicles could grow to 3.25 billion by 2050
Transportation energy consumption data includes operating energy to fuel transport of people and materials
does not include the embodied energy required for the constructionand maintenance of the infrastructure of roads, parking lots, airports,
and rail, with its energy intensive concrete, asphalt, and steel.
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Growth of U.S. Vehicles per 1000 People,
1900-2002, with 2002 values for selected
countries and regions.
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U.S. Transportation Energy by Mode, 2004
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U.S. Passenger Travel Intensity, 2004
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Nexus with Land Use
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Loss of Farmland
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BALTIMORE
CITY
WASHINGTON D.C.
CH
ESAPEAKE
BAY
Development Patterns through:
1900
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Development Patterns through:
1910
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Development Patterns through:
1920
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Development Patterns through:
1940
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Development Patterns through:
1950
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Development Patterns through:
1970
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Development Patterns through:
1980
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Development Patterns through:
1990
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Development Patterns:
1900 - 1960
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Development Patterns:
1961 - 1997
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Development Patterns:
1900 - 1997
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Costly
Infrastructure
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BALTIMORE
CITY
WASHINGTON
D.C.
CHESAPEAKE
BAY
Highway & Development Patterns through:
1900
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Highway & Development Patterns through:1940
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Highway & Development Patterns through:1960
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Highway & Development Patterns through:1997
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Smart Growth
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Smart Growth
Healthy
Communities
emphasizes development in
areas of existinginfrastructure, and deemphasizes development
in areas withoutinfrastructure or less suitable
By doing so, Smart Growth supports and enhancesexisting communities preserves natural andagricultural areas saves the cost ofinfrastructure
reduces VMT
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Transit Oriented Development (TOD)
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King Farm,Rockville, MD
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oc e,
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Portland
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The Urban Turnaround
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Simmons and Lang, 2001
The Coming Demand?
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Myers and Gearin, 2001
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TOD 20-30%
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TOD 20 30%
Green mortgages 15-50% Smart School siting 15-50% Municipal Parking programs 15-30%
Infill/BF 10-50% Aggressive Smart Growth 5-30% Commuter incentives 5-25%
Comp. Smart Growth 3-20% POD 1-10% Pay as you drive insurance 1-10% Transit improvements 0.5%/1% freq. Bicycle incentives 1-5% Light Rail 1-2% Road pricing 1-3%
LEED System
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Changes in the Built Environment
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Changes in the Built Environment
Nelson 2004
Regional Differences in the
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Built Environment
Nelson 2004
Growth-Related 1000s of New Housing Units, 2000-2030
(top 10 metro areas)
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(top 10 metro areas)
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
Lo s Ange le s Wa s hingto n-
Baltimore
New Yo rk Dallas -Fo rt
Wo rth
P ho enix San Francis co Ho us to n Atlanta Chicago Miami
Nelson 2004
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Replacement 1000s of New Housing Units, 2000-2030
(top 10 metro areas)
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(top 10 metro areas)
Nelson 2004
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
New York Los Angeles Washi
ngton-
Baltimore
Chicago San
Francisco
Detroit Dallas-Fort
Worth
Philadelphia Houston Boston
Replaced Housing Units (2000-2030)
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and Current % Use of TransitMetro Area Rank#Units Rank%Transit Metro Area Rank#Units Rank%TransitNew York 1 1 Sacramento 24 15
Los Angeles 2 13 Orlando 25 34
Washington, DC 3 5 Kansas City 26 39
Chicago 4 3 Norfolk 27 25
San Francisco 5 2 Las Vegas 28 16
Detroit 6 41 Milwaukee 29 18
Dallas 7 35 Indianapolis 30 40
Philadelphia 8 6 Charlotte 31 44
Houston 9 26 Columbus 32 31
Boston 10 4 San Antonio 33 23
Miami 11 19 West Palm Beach 34 29
Atlanta 12 22 New Orleans 35 12
Seattle 13 7 Greensboro 36 46
Phoenix 14 17 Nashville 37 42
Cleveland 15 24 Austin 38 20
Tampa 16 32 Raleigh 39 27
Minneapolis 17 14 Jacksonville 40 37Denver 18 11 Oklahoma City 41 43
San Diego 19 9 Salt Lake City 42 21
St. Louis 20 33 Memphis 43 45
Portland 21 8 Louisville 44 36
Pittsburgh 22 10 Grand Rapids 45 38
Cincinnati 23 28 Hartford 46 30
Changes in Washington DC-Baltimore
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Metropolitan Area Built Environment2000-2030
# of housing units square meters office space
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Total Increase Housing Units
New Housing UnitsReplacement Housing Units
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
Total Increase Office Space
New Office Space
Replacement Office Space
Turn Around of the Washington DC Metropolitan Areas
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THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM
g p
Office Market (1950-2006)
Source: The Brookings Institutionand RCLCo, using Co-Star primary
data
50%
38%
23%
33%
40%
46%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Jan-50 Jan-94 1995-2004 Jan-05 2005 2006
OfficeMarket
Share
90% +
Washington as the ModelFor the Early 21st Century
Metropolitan Growth
Green Line as the NewRed Line as the Favored
Quarter Expands
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Suburban Tow n: Bet hesda, MD
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THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM
Suburban Transi t -Or ient ed: Bal ls t on Ar l ingt on, VA
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THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM
Public Policies to Address Energy,
Transportation Land Use and Climate
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Transportation, Land Use, and Climate
Change Problems
advance sustainable energy technologies encourage private provision of more
efficient land use patterns (density)
energy conservation (greener buildings)
carbon friendly choices for consumers and
communities (transit, mixed use)
promote institutional innovations (alternative solo
vehicle trips)
Our Focus: Consumer
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Preferences Regarding
height of residential structures
ground floor use of residential structures
private transportation options
closeness to public transit
energy costs
based on stated-preference survey of consumers
Assessing Preferences
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stronglyagree
somewhatagree
neutral somewhatdisagree
stronglydisagree
height ofstructure
groundfloor
private
transportationcloseness totransit
energycosts
height ofstructure
Ranking Preferences
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height of structure
ground floor of structure private transportation
closeness to public transit energy costs
Ranking Preferences
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height of structure 3 floors
5 floors
10 floors
ground floor of structure grocery, retail, or restaurant
office space
private transportation
parking space subsidized zipcar
closeness to public transit 400 meters
3000 meters
energy costs 1000 euros
2000 euros
Choice Experiments
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Attribute Levels3 floors (ground floor plus 2 floors of housing)
5 floors (ground floor plus 2 floors of housing)
height of structure
10 floors (ground floor plus 2 floors of housing)office spaceground floor
grocery, retail shopping, or restaurant space1 parking space for each unit, included in unit purchaseprivate transportation
no parking space but zip car available with 250 free hours year$1,000/year$1,500/year
annual energy costs
$2,000/year miledistance to transit2 miles
Combinatorial Problem
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5 attributes3 attributes with two levels
2 attributes with three levels
lots of permutation72 possible combinations
2,556 possible pairwise comparisons of these 72combinations
used 32 sets of comparisons each set has 6 pairwise comparisons
no respondent gets duplicated pairwise comparison
in principle each set of comparisons seen by 7 respondents
Choice 1. Consider the following alternative scenarios A and B.
Policy Conditions A B
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Height of Structure 10 floors 3 floors
Ground Floor Office grocery, retail, restaurant
Private Transportationno off-street parking for own carbut zip car w/ 250 free hours/year
no off-street parking for own carbut zip car w/ 250 free hours/year
Annual Energy Cost $1,500/year $1,500/year
Nearest Metro Rail Stop 1/4 mile 2 miles
Which of these alternatives do you find more attractive?____ A____ B
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Basic Model
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attribute
(2)
Coeff.
(3)
t-statistic
(4)
p value
number of floors -0.0648 -3.95 0.000ground floor use 0.9115 9.19 0.000
private transportation -0.8098 -9.01 0.000
annual energy costs -1.0186 -8.76 0.000distance to transit stop -1.3010 -11.83 0.000intercept -0.0475 -0.73 0.468
n=1,252 observations, pseudo-R2 = 0.19
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Takeaways
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additional floors valued negatively relatively small penalty/floor
energy costs/savings do not appear different than other dollarcosts 21% indicated preference for cash payment
clear preference for grocery, retail, restaurant over office space
strong preference for access to private vehicle compared to subsidized zipcar w/ 250 hours of use/year ($2,000/year)
closeness to transit viewed positively
probably not linear, but not clear what threshold distance is
Next Steps
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test more interactions with respondent
characteristics
enlarge sample
develop visuals for built environment
incorporate more transportation options
enlarge to include non-residential
environments