Q4 2018
Quarterly Market
Indicators
2
Content
Disclaimer Page 3
Mobile services Page 4
Fixed line telephony services Page 6
Broadband services Page 8
Definitions Page 10
3Monday, April 29, 2019
TRA has relied on information supplied to it by third parties. It has not independently verified that data and as such does not make any
representations or warranties, either express or implied, that:
the information is free from inaccuracies, errors or omissions;
the information is exhaustive;
the information is of merchantable quality and fitness for a particular purpose.
TRA, including its officers, board members, employees, agents and contractors, is not liable for:
any inaccuracy, error or omission in the information contained in this document; nor
any loss, damage, cost or expense whether direct, indirect, consequential or special, incurred by, or arising by reason of, any person using
or relying on the information and whether caused by reason of any inaccuracy, error, omission or misrepresentation in the information or
otherwise.
Disclaimer
4
• By the end of Q4 2018, Mobile subscriptions continued its decline to reach 2.09
million subscriptions; which is about a 11.5% decrease from the end of Q4 2017.
• Mobile penetration rate declined from 158% to 139% by the end of Q4 2018.
•Percentage of Postpaid numbers continued to increase reaching to 31% by Q4
2018.
Mobile services: Subscriptions*
Number of Mobile subscriptions
End of Q4 2018
2,092,714 Subscribers139% Penetration rate
* Revised by
IGA2015 2016 2017 Q4 2018
Population 1,370,322 1,423,726 1,501,116 1,503,091
** Revised the number of accepted mobile porting requests
for Q4 2017
2015 2016 2017 Q4 2018
Total 2,541,688 2,994,865 2,364,477 2,092,714
% of Prepaid 78% 81% 74% 69%
% of Postpaid 22% 19% 26% 31%
14,049
12,040
7,892
3,751 3,185 3,018 2,652 2,328 4,160
2,322
Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018
Number of Accepted Mobile Porting Requests
2.21 2.33 2.54 2.99 2.36 2.09
176% 177%185%
210%
158%139%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Mil
lio
ns
Mobile subscriptions and penetration
Total mobile subscriptions Mobile penetration rate
2,4
76
2,5
07
2,5
42
2,6
41
2,8
27
2,8
03
2,9
95
2,6
93
2,6
75
2,6
14
2,3
64
2,2
67
2,1
91
2,1
13
2,0
93
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Th
ou
san
ds
Number of mobile subscriptions
Total
Prepaid
Postpaid
5
Mobile services: Traffic (Minutes)*
• Total outgoing mobile traffic decreased by 10.9% between Q4 2017 and Q4 2018 continuing
the downward trend on voice calls usage.
• The Total domestic outgoing mobile traffic decreased by 9.6% (123.5 million minutes) in Q4
2018 compared to Q4 2017, whereas the total international mobile outgoing voice traffic
decreased by 14% (72 million minutes).
• Prepaid voice traffic as a percentage decreased to 52% of total domestic traffic while Postpaid
traffic reached 48%.
•Average Monthly minutes per user increased by 5% driven by decrease in subscribers.
Total Outgoing Traffic in Minutes
(Domestic + International)
Q4 2017
1,800,632,348
Q4 2018
1,604,483,153
(10.9%)
1,5
61
1,4
17
1,3
71
1,2
73
1,2
87
1,2
45
1,2
05
1,1
21
1,1
64
78
5
68
8
61
7
54
0
51
3
47
6
47
7
46
0
44
1
TOTAL OUTGOING MOBILE VOICE TRAFFIC IN MILLIONS OF MINUTES
(DOMESTIC - INTERNATIONAL)*
Domestic International
278 279 265 267 267
252 246 233
244 249 254 246 256
200
250
300
Average Monthly Minutes Per User(Domestic-International)
8
68
2,290
1,604
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Voic
e T
raffic
in
Mill
ions
Data
Tra
ffic
in
Mill
ions
Mobile Voice Traffic Vs Mobile Broadband Data Traffic
Mobile Broadband Traffic (GB) Mobile Voice Traffic (minutes)* Revised number of minutes
6
Fixed telephony services: Subscriptions (PSTN & Wireless)*
•Between Q4 2017 & Q4 2018, Fixed telephony subscriptions has decreased by
3.8%
• The fixed-wired telephony services continue to increase, as it has recorded an
increase of 6,286 subscriptions between Q4 2017 to Q4 2018.
• On the other hand, fixed-wireless service has decreased by 15,236 subscriptions
between Q4 2017 to Q4 2018.
End of Q4 2018
225,75915% Penetration rate
2015 2016 2017 Q4 2018
Total 242,439 233,917 234,709 225,759
% of Fixed Wired 73% 76% 79% 85%
% of Fixed Wireless 27% 24% 21% 15%
*The number of OLO’s subscriptions’ are estimated for 2018. The number of fixed telephony were revised in for 2017 subscriptions.
*The number of Fixed telephony for Q2 2018 was revised by an operator.
Number of fixed telephony subscriptions
596
109 218
399
1,238
789
236 109
381530
Q32016
Q42016
Q12017
Q22017
Q32017
Q42017
Q12018
Q22018
Q32018
Q42018
Number of Accepted Fixed Line Porting Requests
242 234 235 226
18%16% 16% 15%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Tho
usa
nd
s
Number of fixed lines
Total Fixed wired Fixed wireless Penteration
End of Q4 2017
234,70916% Penetration rate
7
Fixed telephony services: Traffic (PSTN & Wireless - Minutes)
•Domestic fixed telephony traffic showed an upward trend as traffic has increased
between Q4 2017 & Q4 2018 by 5.67%, an increase of 1.79 Million minutes.
• The monthly average outgoing minutes per subscription increased to 145
minutes in Q4 2018 compared to 135 minutes in Q4 2017.
• Fixed International outgoing calls (Including ISDN) have decreased by 12%.
Total fixed domestic outgoing
traffic in minutes
Q4 2017
31,558,936
Q4 2018
33,349,393
(5.67%)
* ISDN international traffic was re-added to total international outgoing minutes
** The OLO’s traffic was revised
*** Domestic traffic was revised in Dec 2018 due to an operator revision
52
,16
8,3
28
51
,95
2,8
97
47
,66
3,3
09
44
,84
9,2
46
40
,13
0,5
86
39
,64
6,4
01
36
,16
3,1
86
34
,25
1,4
90
32
,78
0,0
59
31
,55
8,9
36
30
,53
5,5
85
29
,98
5,5
57
31
,09
4,9
66
33
,34
9,3
93
Fixed Line Total Domestic Outgoing Traffic (Minutes)***
221 216202
191173 170 166
153143 135 128 130 135 145
0
50
100
150
200
250
Average Outgoing Domestic Minutes Per Subscription
4,1
13
,52
8
3,8
59
,44
3
3,6
78
,65
3
3,6
94
,88
6
3,4
49
,56
7
3,1
49
,13
5
3,2
20
,92
9
Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018
Total Outgoing International Fixedlines Traffic*
Total Outgoing International Fixedlines Traffic
8
Broadband services: Subscriptions
At the end of Q4 2018, there were about 2.1 million broadband subscriptions, a
decrease of 8.9% compared to end of 2017, and a decrease of 14,395 compared to
Q3 2018.
Broadband penetration stayed stable at 144% at the end of Q4 2018.
Broadband services subscription from a fixed location has increased by 0.2%
between Q3 2018 & Q4 2018 while mobile broadband subscription stayed stable over
the same period.
Add-on broadband to voice and pay-per-use mobile broadband represent 67.9% of
mobile broadband subscriptions at the end of Q4 2018. In addition, 75% of mobile
subscribers have data.
End of Q4 2018
2,160,324144% Penetration rate
• The number of OLO’s subscriptions’ are estimated for 2017 and 2018.
** Revised in Dec 2018 for 2018 year
Number of broadband subscriptions
Mobile Broadband – Q4 2018
Proportion of broadband subscriptions by access type – Q4 2018
8.5% 91.5%
Fixed broadband (wired+wireless) Mobile broadband
Pay-per-use
11.2%
Standalone20.9%
Add-on to voice67.9%
1,9
77
,60
2
2,4
07
,40
8
2,3
73
,30
6
2,0
67
,20
8
2,1
15
,23
5
2,1
74
,71
9
2,1
60
,32
4
146%171% 164%
138% 141% 145% 144%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
2015 2016 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018
Broadband Subscriptions and Penetration**Subscription Penetration
17
2,4
73
17
8,2
99
16
9,1
75
19
4,1
44
19
5,7
51
18
1,9
03
18
5,0
74
18
3,9
94
25
3,3
04
35
9,1
94
32
5,9
77
31
7,5
90
30
4,5
85
38
0,3
12
41
0,0
58
41
2,3
54
425,777
537,493495,152 511,734 500,336
562,215595,132 596,348
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018
Broadband services subscriptions from a fixed location(Dedicated Broadband)**
Fixed Broadband Subscribtion (Wired & Wireless) Standalone mobile broadband (e.g. dongle, USB, tablet) Total
9
Broadband services: Data Traffic*
• The upward trend in data consumption is continuing to grow as data traffic
reached to 124 PB in Q4 2018, an increase of 19% over the year from Q4
2017.
• Year-on-Year, Mobile broadband traffic has increased by 11.4% while
Fixed broadband traffic has increased by 26.6%.
•The monthly average mobile broadband traffic per mobile subscription
remained at 7 GB compared to the monthly average fixed broadband traffic
per fixed subscription which increased to 146 GB.
• Overall, the monthly average traffic per user remained at 19 GB.
Total data traffic in Gigabyte***
* The OLO’s traffic (data usage) is estimated for 2018
** Revised number of subscribers in Dec 2018
Q4 2017
124,712,970
Q4 2018
148,562,538
19 %
24 26 28 32 29
42
54
61 64
67
77 81 81
3135
41
4952 54
58 59 61 6165 65
68
Fixed Broadband Traffic (GB) Mobile Broadband Traffic (GB)
9 10 11 12 11 13 16 17 18 21 22 22 23
4451
5663
58
82
98108 109
115
141146 146
6 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 11 11 11 11
Per Subscription Per Fixed Broadband Subscription Per Mobile Broadband Subscription
10
Definitions
Indicator Definition
Fixed-telephone subscriptions Fixed-telephone subscriptions refers to the sum of active number of analogue fixed-telephone lines, voice-over-IP (VoIP) subscriptions,
fixed wireless local loop (WLL) subscriptions.
Prepaid mobile subscribers Prepaid mobile-cellular telephone subscriptions (ITU code i271p) Refers to the total number of mobile-cellular telephone subscriptions
that use prepaid refills. These are subscriptions where, instead of paying an ongoing monthly fee, users purchase blocks of usage time.
Only active subscriptions should be included (those used at least once in the last three months for making or receiving a call or carrying
out a non-voice activity such as sending or reading an SMS or accessing the Internet).
Postpaid mobile subscribers Postpaid mobile-cellular telephone subscriptions Refers to the total number of mobile-cellular subscriptions where subscribers are billed
after their use of mobile services, at the end of each month. The postpaid service is provided on the basis of a prior arrangement with a
mobile cellular operator. Typically, the subscriber’s contract specifies a limit or allowance of minutes, text messages, etc. The subscriber
will be billed at a flat rate for any usage equal to or less than that allowance. Any usage above that limit incurs extra charges.
Theoretically, a subscriber in this situation has no limit on use of mobile services and, as a consequence, unlimited credit.
Active mobile-broadband
subscriptionsActive mobile-broadband subscriptions refers to the sum of standard mobile-broadband and dedicated mobile broadband subscriptions
to the public Internet. It covers actual subscribers, not potential subscribers, even though the latter may have broadband enabled-
handsets. The indicator can be further broken down into:
Standard mobile-broadband subscriptions (ITU code i271mb_active): Refers to active mobile-cellular subscriptions with an advertised
data speed of 256 kbit/s or greater that allow access to the greater Internet via HTTP and have been used to make a data connection
using Internet protocol (IP) in the previous three months. Standard SMS and MMS messaging do not count as active Internet data
connections, even if they are delivered via IP.
This includes mobile subscriptions that use mobile-broadband services on a pay-per-use basis. It excludes mobile subscriptions with a
separate monthly data plan for mobile-broadband access (see Indicator 25b, Dedicated mobile broadband subscriptions).
Dedicated mobile-broadband subscriptions (ITU code i271md): Refers to subscriptions to dedicated data services (over a mobile
network) that allow access to the greater Internet and that are purchased separately from voice services, either as a standalone service
(e.g. using a data card such as a USB modem/dongle) or as an add-on data package to voice services that requires an additional
subscription. All dedicated mobile-broadband subscriptions with recurring subscription fees are included as ‘active data subscriptions’
regardless of actual use. Prepaid mobile-broadband plans require use in the last three months if there is no monthly subscription. This
indicator could also include mobile WiMAX subscriptions.
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