Quantifying future emission paths: What is needed from whom to
keep stabilization in reach
18 October 2005
Niklas Höhne, [email protected] Cologne, Germany
Quantifying future emission paths
ECOFYS Energy and Environment
• European research and consulting company
• In total 250 employees in the Netherlands, Germany, UK, Spain, Poland, Belgium, Italy
• Example projects:– Evaluation of the national allocation plans of the EU emission trading system
for the UK government – Work on future international climate commitments for, e.g., the German
Environmental Agency and EU Commission– BASIC project: Capacity building on climate change negotiations with Brazil,
China, India and South Africa
Quantifying future emission paths
Future international action on climate change network
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Discussion forum
www.fiacc.net
Funded by - German Federal
Environmental Agency- EU Commissions DG
Environment
Quantifying future emission paths
Content
1. From long-term targets to short term emission levels
2. Emission allowances under various proposals for international climate policy after 2012 and implications for South Africa
3. Conclusions
Quantifying future emission paths
Time scales of stabilization
Source: IPCC Synthesis Report, 2001
Quantifying future emission paths
Possible temperature trajectories
• 1000 to 1861, N. Hemisphere, proxy data;
• 1861 to 2000 Global, Instrumental;
• 2000 to 2100, SRES projections
Source: IPCC Synthesis Report, 2001
EU climate target of 2°C above pre-industrial level
Quantifying future emission paths
Source:
IPCC Syntheses Report, 2001
EU climate target of 2°C
Linking temperature to concentration
Levels of CO2 concentration
Preindustrial: 280 ppmCurrent: 360 ppm
Quantifying future emission paths
Stabilization pathways
0
1
2
34
5
6
7
8
9
10
1112
13
14
15
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtC
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Ch
ang
e to
199
0
Source: post SRES scenarios (stabilization paths), CO2 only
450ppm
550ppm
400ppm
Reference
Quantifying future emission paths
Content
1. From long-term targets to short term emission levels
2. Emission allowances under various proposals for international climate policy after 2012 and implications for South Africa
3. Conclusions
Quantifying future emission paths
Approaches
• Contraction and Convergence (C&C)
• Common but differentiated convergence
• Multistage
• Triptych
Quantifying future emission paths
Contraction and Convergence• Contraction: Definition of global emission path (e.g 450ppmv)
• Convergence: Per capita emissions of all countries converge by 2050
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Em
issi
on
s p
er c
apit
a (t
CO
2eq
./p
erso
n)
Annex I
Global total
Non-Annex I
Quantifying future emission paths
Common but differentiated convergence• Three stages
– No commitments– Positively binding emission targets – Convergence to an equal per capita level within e.g. 40
years as of entry
• Threshold for participation:
– World average GHG/capG
HG
/cap
Time
Threshold
N. Höhne, M. den Elzen, M. Weiß “Common but differentiated convergence (CDC) - A new conceptual approach to long-term climate policy” submitted to climate policy
Quantifying future emission paths
Multistage approach
• Participation in e.g. four stages:
• Countries “graduate” to a next step, if threshold is passed, e.g. emissions/cap
No commitments
Sustainable development policies and measures
Moderate reduction
Reduction
Quantifying future emission paths
Industry Adjusted BAU production growth with efficiency improvement
Electricity Adjusted BAU production growth with limit on sources
Domestic Converging per-capita emissions
Fossil fuel production
Decline to low level
Agricultural Percentage reduction below BAU
Waste Converging per-capita emissions
Land use change and forestry
Decline to zero (here excluded)
Triptych
Nat
ion
alem
issi
on
tar
get
Quantifying future emission paths
Stabilization pathways
0
1
2
34
5
6
7
8
9
10
1112
13
14
15
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtC
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Ch
ang
e to
199
0
Source: post SRES scenarios (stabilization paths), CO2 only
450ppm
550ppm+30%
-25%
400ppm
Quantifying future emission paths
Change 1990 to 2020 towards 450 ppm CO2
• Annex I: -10% to –30% below 1990• No participation: South Asia and Africa, except South Africa • Deviate from their reference: Latin America, Middle East, East Asia and
Centrally Planned Asia
450 ppmv 2020
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
US
A
EU
25
FR
A
GE
R
UK
R+E
EU
JPN
RA
I
C&CCDCMutistageTriptychReference
450 ppmv 2020
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
RE
EU
LAM
AF
R
ME
SA
sia
CP
Asi
a
EA
sia
C&CCDCMutistageTriptychReference
Quantifying future emission paths
Change 1990 to 2050 towards 450 ppm CO2
• Annex I: -70% to -90% below 1990• Substantial deviation from reference in all Non-Annex I regions
450 ppmv 2050
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
US
A
EU
25
FR
A
GE
R
UK
R+E
EU
JPN
RA
I
C&CCDCMutistageTriptychReference
450 ppmv 2050
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
800%
900%
1000%
RE
EU
LAM
AF
R
ME
SA
sia
CP
Asi
a
EA
sia
C&CCDCMutistageTriptychReference
Quantifying future emission paths
Emissions per capita
GDP/cap
Source; Various sources including UNFCCC, IEA as reported in the EVOC model for the year 2000
Quantifying future emission paths
Impact on South Africa
• 450 ppmv CO2 case: Deviation from reference for all modelled approaches by 2020
-50.0%
0.0%
50.0%
100.0%
150.0%
200.0%
250.0%
300.0%
350.0%
TU
R
RE
EU
AR
G
BR
Z
ME
X
VE
N
RLA
EG
Y
ZA
F
NG
A
RN
A
RA
F
SA
U
AR
E
RM
E
CH
N
IND
IDN
KO
R
MY
S
PH
L
SG
P
TH
A
RA
A
-50.0%
0.0%
50.0%
100.0%
150.0%
200.0%
250.0%
300.0%
350.0%T
UR
RE
EU
AR
G
BR
Z
ME
X
VE
N
RLA
EG
Y
ZA
F
NG
A
RN
A
RA
F
SA
U
AR
E
RM
E
CH
N
IND
IDN
KO
R
MY
S
PH
L
SG
P
TH
A
RA
A
-100.0%
100.0%
300.0%
500.0%
700.0%
900.0%
1100.0%
1300.0%
TU
R
RE
EU
AR
G
BR
Z
ME
X
VE
N
RLA
EG
Y
ZA
F
NG
A
RN
A
RA
F
SA
U
AR
E
RM
E
CH
N
IND
IDN
KO
R
MY
S
PH
L
SG
P
TH
A
RA
A
C&C 2050 convergence C&C 2100 convergence Multistage Triptych Reference
Change from 1990 level in 2020 under the 450 ppmv CO2 case
Quantifying future emission paths
Effect of delay of action
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Glo
ba
l CO
2 e
mis
sio
ns
(G
tC)
Reference
Delayed 2020
Delayed 2015
Multistage
-2.2%
Maximum annual reduction rate
- 3.6%
>- 10%
> -10%
450 ppmv CO2
• Delay in the next decades significantly increases the efforts to to achieve the same environmental goal.
Quantifying future emission paths
Conclusions• EU target of 2°C above pre-industrial levels: below 450 ppmv CO2
(average climate sensitivity)
• To keep 450 ppmv CO2 within reach– Global emissions need to drop below 1990 levels within a few decades– Developed country emissions would need to be reduced substantially – Developing country emissions need to deviate from the reference as soon
as possible, for some countries even as of 2020 (Latin America, Middle East, East Asia)
• Emissions per capita and GDP/cap of South Africa are above global average.
• Delay in the next decades significantly increases the efforts to achieve the same environmental goal
Quantifying future emission paths
Side event
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
1. Introduction
2. Demonstration of the CAIT tool developed by WRI
3. Demonstration of the EVOC model developed by Ecofys
4. Demonstration of the FAIR model developed by MNP/RIVM
Venue: Room Gallagher 3
Wednesday 19th October
10am – 12.30pmB A S I C