Quick Mutual Fund Analysis&
Market Alerts
An Educational Service for those with 401Ks, IRAs, College Savings Accounts, and Mutual Fund Investments
• If you lost 50% in the Market in year 1, then grew 50% in year 2, your investments would be even because your average annual yield is 0%.
– Year 1• $10,000 + [(-50%) x ($10,000)] = $5,000
– Year 2• $5,000 + [(50%) x ($5,000)] = $7,500
Wall Street Math
The average annual yield means absolutely nothing.It’s simply a form of misdirection.
S&P 500 Performance
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
S&P 500 Annual Yield
“Buy & Hold”Wall Street’s Big Lie
YearAnnual Yield *
Average Yield
Actual Yield
Account Value
Cumulative Contribution
1995 34.1% 34.1% 34.1% 13,411.00$ 10,000$ 1996 20.3% 27.2% 25.1% 28,154.07$ 20,000$ 1997 31.0% 28.5% 27.8% 49,985.65$ 30,000$ 1998 26.7% 28.0% 27.4% 75,995.81$ 40,000$ 1999 19.5% 26.3% 25.1% 102,773.60$ 50,000$ 2000 -10.1% 20.2% 15.2% 101,338.35$ 60,000$ 2001 -13.0% 15.5% 8.1% 96,819.83$ 70,000$ 2002 -23.4% 10.6% 0.5% 81,856.04$ 80,000$
* S&P 500
• The Goal– Maximize return on investment
• Introducing the “Market Signal”– Avoid downward market participation (to preserve capital)– Capture the majority of the upward trend (and lock in profits)
• Performance Record Since 2005*– Buy & Hold = -4%– Protect & Grow = +119%
No More “Buy and Hold”
* As of 12/31/2010
• The Approach– Monitor every mutual fund in the United States
• 23,000+ mutual funds– Analyze each fund’s performance versus the Market and
versus each other using seasonal, fundamental, technical and statistical information
• High Frequency Trading– Minimize and leverage the impact of High Frequency Traders– Anticipate market trends based on an understanding of how
traders are likely to respond to market conditions
• Not Day Trading– Only 1 to 4 entry/exit signals per year
Not Really “Timing the Market”
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Example – 401k Choices
Investment/FundNumber of FundsInitial InvestmentStarting Date
Buy & Hold Market SignalCurrent Value $144,745.49 $260,484.92Gain/(Loss) ($45,254.51) $70,484.92Portfolio - IRR -4.49% 5.47%Individual Fund - IRR - Low -9.56% 0.84%Individual Fund - IRR - High 0.63% 8.99%
401k Portfolio Assessment$10,000.00
19$190,000.00
01/01/05
GuideStone
Investment/FundNumber of FundsInitial InvestmentStarting Date
Buy & Hold Market SignalCurrent Value $148,485.02 $223,995.99Gain/(Loss) $8,485.02 $83,995.99Portfolio - IRR 0.97% 8.05%Individual Fund - IRR - Low -0.86% -0.07%Individual Fund - IRR - High 2.28% 12.41%
401k Portfolio Assessment$10,000.00
14$140,000.00
01/01/05
BNSF
Investment/FundNumber of FundsInitial InvestmentStarting Date
Buy & Hold Market SignalCurrent Value $260,958.74 $463,592.03Gain/(Loss) $958.74 $203,592.03Portfolio - IRR 0.06% 9.99%Individual Fund - IRR - Low -6.93% -0.13%Individual Fund - IRR - High 8.59% 18.77%
401k Portfolio Assessment$10,000.00
26$260,000.00
01/01/05
American Airlines
401k Mutual Fund Growth
Hud
son
Fina
ncial
Amer
ican
Airlin
es
BNSF
Apollo
Guide
Ston
e
Hun
tingt
on N
atio
nal .
..
King
City
MRI T
ech
Chevr
on
Armstro
ng R
eloc
atio
n
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
January 1, 2005 - December 31, 2010
Inte
rnal
Rate
of
Retu
rn (
IRR
)
• Analyze every mutual fund choice within your 401k.– Produce detail report which compares and rates the
performance of each of your mutual fund choices.
• Analyze mutual funds outside your 401k that are of interest to you.
• Provide the Market Signal which alerts you to bull, bear and/or flat signals:– Email and text
What Does This Educational Service Include?
Contact Us For Subscriber Pricing & Incentives