Raw materials trades – EU Policy and the impact of developing countries on future trade flows
Dr Corina Hebestreit, Director, Euromines
European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
Euromines – what it is
Recognized representative of the European metals and minerals mining industry;
Service provider to its members with regard to EU policy;
Network for cooperation and for the exchange of information throughout the sector within Europe;
Link to contacts with the mining community throughout the world.
www.euromines.org
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European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
Euromines Membership
Represents large and small companies and subsidiaries in Europe and in other parts of the world;
18 national mining federations 27 direct company members
350,000 jobs;
Representing 42 different metals and minerals
For some metals and minerals, Europe is the world's leading producer.
www.euromines.org
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European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
Percentage of different minerals represented in Euromines
www.euromines.org
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European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
Countries represented
Austria Bulgaria Czech Republic Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Norway Poland Portugal Slovakia Sweden Turkey United Kingdom
www.euromines.org
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European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
Economy and Metal Consumption
European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
Global consumption of all metals has been increasing in the last 20 years, except some minor metals like Cd
European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
CRM are not only rare metals : The case of copper
Copper demand for automotive industry will increase (electrification & volume effects)
Not only “rare” metals, but also commodities are critical
Look beyond our own sector
Current marginal market price
Supply and Demand Imbalance Price scenario
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990 2000 2010 2020
Mt
WORLD COPPER SUPPLY
WORLD GLOBAL DEMAND
ESTIMATED AUTOMOTIVE DEMAND
5,7% of Global Demand 9%
Competitive Recycled Cuprice
1000
3000
5000
7000
9000
11000
1990 2000 2010 2020$/
t
Marginal market price (incl. smelting cost…)
Floor production cost
Competitive recycled Copper price
StockRecycling
European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
Growing Demand: Example 1: copper
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European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
“In-use” lifeof Copper
Secondary resource baseavailable today
8.5 Mt/yr50% of current annual demand
25? yrs
Minimum needs exceed available scrap
European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
Growing Demand: Example 2: industrial minerals
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European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
Intensity of use: Steel
http://stigmes.gr …… National PerspectiveNational Perspective 12
European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
GDP and steel intensity
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European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
EU Industrial Policies and a related Material Demand Forecast
Example: Predicted growth rates for photovoltaic cells
Development of raw material demand
0
200
400
600
800
Tonnes
Indium Selenium Gallium Cadmium Tellurium
2007
2020
2040
Demand forecast for materials for photovoltaic cells 2007-2050
2007
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
Copper demand for drive trains in standard and hybrid cars - 2006 - 2026 (two options)
2006
2006
2026 (1)
2026 (1)
2026 (2)
2026 (2)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
standard passenger car
hybrid passenger car
copper in kgSource: Fraunhofer 2009
EU electrification of cars
European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
Neodym in permanent magnets for hybrid cars
2006
2006
2026
2026
0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2
Standard passenger car
hybrid passenger car
Neodym in kgSource: Fraunhofer 2009
EU electrification of cars
European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
t/year
2006 2030
Silver 2006 - 2030 - new technologies
Solar cells
Displays (OLED)
Solarthermic generators
RFID tags
Nano-silver
Micro-electric condensators
Leadfree solders
Other new technologies
European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
Exploration
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Average yearly investments forecasts in non-ferrous mineral exploration by regions ($ value on 31/12/07, corrected by the change in the CPI index).
Source: Metals Economic Group, Wikipedia, US Department of Labor Statistics.
European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
Investment is coming
Mining industry capex, NFMs, 2011US$ bn
Source: CRU, industry estimates
(est)
European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
The EU’s Raw Materials Imitative and the EIP on Raw Materials
European Raw Materials Strategy COM(2008) 699; COM(2011) 25
Europe 20204 Flagships Initiatives out of 7 → raw material strategy synergies
An industrial policy for the globalisation era An agenda for new skills and jobs Resource Efficient Europe Innovation Union
European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
EIP on Raw Materials: Key components Technology-focused policy areas
Exploration, extraction, processing, recycling
Substitution
Non Technology policy areas
Improving Europe's raw materials regulatory framework, knowledge and
infrastructure base, e.g. access to land.
Promotion of excellence in resource efficiency
International cooperation
Promoting appropriate international cooperation
ETP SMR, Research
projects, ERA-MIN
Implementation of the RMI
EIP
Level playing field WTO, Trade agreements
European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
First pillar
Access to raw materials on world markets at undistorted conditions
Key actions: pursuing raw materials diplomacy; promoting enhanced international cooperation; access to primary and secondary raw materials should
become a priority in EU trade and regulatory policy; EU policy development at three levels: strengthening
states; promoting a sound investment climate; promoting sustainable management of raw materials.
European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
Raw materials diplomacy
Seeking cooperation with USA and Japan Integrating raw materials aspects into the bilateral trade
negotiations, e.g. South America Promoting sustainable extraction of mineral resources
worldwide Developing access to resources in Greenland Capacity building for the African minerals sector
European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
EU Policy on trade in raw materials
Situation Increasing numbers of barriers distorting global markets…
Leading to suboptimal allocation of scarce resources:
There is an economic cost for the lack of trade!
Trade is a key policy in the Raw Materials initiative and includes Negotiation of disciplines in bilateral and multilateral trade agreements (e.g. on
export restrictions, including export duties)
Monitoring, review and WTO enforcement
Dialogue and outreach activities
European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
Second pillar
Foster sustainable supply of raw materials from European sources
Key actions: having the right framework conditions
securing access to the land; improving the knowledge base of mineral deposits within EU; better networking between the national geological surveys; promoting research projects; address the problem of skill shortage; raising awareness of the importance of domestic raw materials for
the European economy; developing guidelines to reconcile Natura 2000 areas with
extractive activities nearby.
European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
Production Overview EU 27
Summary unit EU-27 World Share EU Source
Iron t 16.052.6181.121.172.10
7 1,4% WMD
Ferro aloys t 369.480 34.034.790 1,1% WMD
Non-ferrous t 8.353.557 269.931.869 3,1% WMD
Precious metals kg 1.714.846 24.030.819 7,1% WMDIndustrial minerals t 116.246.905 807.772.471 14,4% WMDConstr. Materials t
3.075.000.000
22.000.000.000 14,0% UEPG
Mineral Fuels SKE 746.022.40416.403.870.6
13 4,5% WMD
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European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
Main Mineral Deposits of Europe
mercredi 18 mai 2011 Service Ressources Minérales > 10
Lapland (Fe)
Skellefte-Pyhäsalmi (Cu, Zn, Au, Ni, Co)
Bergslagen (Fe, Zn)
Foresudetic basin (Cu, Co, Pt, Re)
Carpathians (Pb, Zn, Au)
Balkans (Cu, Au, Sn)
Irish (Zn)
Iberian Pyrite Belt (Cu, Zn, Sn)
AND KEY METALLOGENIC PROVINCES
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European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
ProMine Project: Nano-particle products from new mineral resources in Europe
27 partners from 11 EU countries Total budget: 17 M €
Assessing the EU mineral potential
European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
EU Analysis of critical raw materials
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European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
Critical Raw Materials in Europe
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European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
Suurikuusikko Au
Talvivaara Ni
Kevitsa Ni
Suhanko PGE?
Kolari Fe
Laiva AuPampalo AuKylylahti Cu-Co
Mining of ore in Finland – new projects
European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
Third pillar
Reduce the EU’s consumption of raw materials per functional unit
and improve product performance Key actions:
promoting resource efficiency, recycling;
substitution and increased use of renewable raw materials;
ensuring that the treatment of waste takes place under fair and sustainable conditions in relations with third countries.
European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
Steps forward since 2012
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A European Innovation Partnership on Raw Materials (EIP) will be created. Members are: the national mining authorities, the European Commission and the Mining Industry
This would stimulate and foster research into new and more resource-efficient management and will also review the legal framework
European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
From now to 2030
Revised Mineral Policies such as: land-planning and mine waste management (by 2015)
Modern database and economic assessment of EU primary and secondary resources (by 2020)
Further steps in automation and high tech extraction (by 2030)
New technologies for recovery and recycling (by 2030)
European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
Education and skills
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Education, training and skills of all sorts will be a prerequisite for such an agenda and the ambitious targets
The sheer number of people required in the coming decade does not seem to be available
investment in and advertisefor this specialized education is needed
European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
Vision for 2020 and beyond
By 2015 EIP on Raw Materials: research into new and more
resource efficient resource access and management; review of regulatory requirements
Complete database by MS on old mine waste sites (EU Mine Waste Directive)
EU Standard methodology for prioritisation and economic assessment of such deposits
All Member States have new or revised Mineral Policies in place
All MS Land-planning policies include references to extractable mineral deposits
Revision of BAT note on mine waste management
European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
Vision for 2020 and beyond
By 2020 Complete modern database and
economic assessment of EU primary and secondary resources
Revised regulatory framework facilitating sustainable management of resources and uptake of innovation
EU Leadership in technology for all aspects of resource management (exploration, extraction, processing, re-processing, reuse, recycling, recovery, design, …)
EU ressource diversification
European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
Vision for 2020 and beyond
By 2030 Only High tech mines in place in
Europe Technology proven and being
exported Optimised valorisation of available
resources, i.e. new technologies in place, removal of legacy sites, increased reuse, recovery and
recycling rates, material efficiency use in higher
performance products
BEFORE RESTORATION
AFTER RESTORATION
European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
Results of EU industrial policiesMaterial flows
2009
2030
Waste
Secondary materials
Primary materials
Products
Waste
Secondary materials
Primary materials
Products
Europe
Europe
China
China
European association for mining industries, metal ores and industrial minerals
Chinese wisdom:« When the wind of change blows, some build walls, while others build windmills.”