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Recent Advancements to the U.S. Navy’s Coupled Mesoscale Modeling System
Recent Advancements to the U.S. Navy’s Coupled Mesoscale Modeling System
James D. DoyleNaval Research Laboratory
Monterey, CA
James D. DoyleNaval Research Laboratory
Monterey, CA
OutlineOutline•Overview of Systems•Coupled Modeling using COAMPS•Tropical Cyclone Prediction •Ensemble Kalman Filter and Adjoint•Parameterization Research•Next-Generation Dynamics
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SeaWIFS (NASA)
Rick Allard1
Clark AmeraultTim Campbell1
Sue Chen John Cook
Jim Cummings1
Saša Gaberšek
Qingfang JiangHao JinYi Jin
Chi-Sann LiouPaul May
Tracy HaackEric Hendricks
Rich Hodur2
Teddy HoltXiaodong Hong
Jason NachamkinAlex Reinecke
Jerome Schmidt William Thompson
Kevin VinerShouping WangNaval Research Lab, Monterey, CA
1NRL-SSC, 2SAIC, 3CSC
NAVDAS
NRL Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System
NOGAPS, NAVGEM, NAAPS*Global Co erage & Ensembles
NRL Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System
NOGAPS, NAVGEM, NAAPS*Global Co erage & Ensembles
U.S. Navy Models and ToolsTelescoping Strategy
U.S. Navy Models and ToolsTelescoping Strategy
NAVDAS*4DVAR/3DVAR *Observation Space *Global to Local
*Global Coverage & Ensembles *Meso- to Synoptic Scale *1-5d Guidance/ 10d Ensemble *Weather, Ice, SST, Aerosols
Satellite
UAV
COAMPS-OS®
*Nested Local Coverage
*Global Coverage & Ensembles *Meso- to Synoptic Scale *1-5d Guidance/ 10d Ensemble *Weather, Ice, SST, Aerosols
COAMPS® & COAMPS-TC*Nested Regional Coverage *Nonhydrostatic Scale *0-120h Guidance (Ensembles) *Weather, Ocean, and Aerosols
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Decision Aids
Radar
Nested Local Coverage *Tactical Scales *0-24h Guidance, on-demand *On-Scene, local data assimilation
COAMPS® and COAMPS-OS® are registered trademarks of Naval Research Laboratory.
NOWCAST*Rapid Environmental Assessment *Warfighter Time & Space Scales *0-6h Guidance, Rapid Update *Real-time, Automatic, Data Fusion
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COAMPS OverviewCoupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System
COAMPS OverviewCoupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System
•Data Assimilation: 3D-Var: NAVDAS (Atmosphere), NCODA (Ocean)EnKF and 4D-Var (underway), Adjoint obs. impact
•Atmosphere: Nonhydrostatic, NRL fluxes, LSM, NRL microphysics, NRL PBL, dust/aerosols, Fu-Liou radiation
O N C t l O M d l (NCOM) W (SWAN WWIII)
Air-Ocean Two-Way Coupling Tropical Cyclone CapabilityAtmospheric Modeling
•Ocean: Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM), Wave (SWAN,WWIII)•Ensemble: Ensemble Kalman Filter, Coupled Ensemble Transform•Tropical Cyclone: COAMPS-TC, TC analysis, TC physics, moving nests•Operations: Globally relocatable, 60 areas (2-4x daily), x~1.6-27 km, FNMOC & NAVO COAMPS-OS, coupled option
WAF/NWP Conference, May 2012WAF/NWP Conference, May 20123COAMPS® and COAMPS-OS® are registered trademarks of the Naval Research Laboratory
ESMF Modeling Superstructure
Atmospheric Model NCOM Ocean Model SWAN/WWIII Waves
COAMPSCoupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System
COAMPSCoupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System
t osp e c ode CO Ocea ode S / a es
Dynamics
Interface to Physics Suites
NRL WRF Others
Flux Coupler
Dynamics
Physics
Dynamics
Physics
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ESMF superstructure used to couple models
Flux coupler transfers fields between models
Interface allows for different physics
suites
Flux Coupler
• Share community models and community physics.• ESMF exchange grid facilitates interactions between model and grid meshes.
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An integrated suite of software providing a turnkey, globally relocatable, coupled An integrated suite of software providing a turnkey, globally relocatable, coupled environmental data assimilation production capabilityenvironmental data assimilation production capability
•• Highly automated; quick response timeHighly automated; quick response time
COAMPS-OSCOAMPS-On demand System
COAMPS-OSCOAMPS-On demand System
Highly automated; quick response timeHighly automated; quick response time
•• Globally Globally relocatablerelocatable
•• WebWeb--based configurationbased configuration
•• ForwardForward--deployable or reachdeployable or reach--back modeback mode
•• Ocean and atmosphere analyses, including Ocean and atmosphere analyses, including
dedicated cloud and Doppler radar wind analysesdedicated cloud and Doppler radar wind analyses
•• COAMPSCOAMPS®® mesoscale forecasts with full physicsmesoscale forecasts with full physics
•• Coupled ocean circulation (NCOM), ocean wave Coupled ocean circulation (NCOM), ocean wave
(SWAN, WWIII) using ESMF(SWAN, WWIII) using ESMF
•• Automatically transforms output into dynamic web Automatically transforms output into dynamic web
hi d bhi d b ibl d tibl d t
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graphics and webgraphics and web--accessible dataaccessible data
•• Custom interfaces to provide data for HPAC (JEM), Custom interfaces to provide data for HPAC (JEM),
AREPS, AREPS, NowcastsNowcasts and other applicationsand other applications
•• WebWeb--based Remote Monitor capabilitybased Remote Monitor capability
•• DOD, Federal agencies, NATO, university, DOD, Federal agencies, NATO, university, govgov labslabs
•• Operational since 1998 w/ continuous improvementsOperational since 1998 w/ continuous improvements
COAMPS® and COAMPS-OS® are registered trademarks of the Naval Research Laboratory.
COAMPS Coupled ModelingCoupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Wave Coupling
COAMPS Coupled ModelingCoupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Wave Coupling
3-km COAMPS/NCOM Coupling
SST (Aug, 2003)ATMOS
1
1.51-way
SST (oC) Statistics
M1
M2●●WAVE
Currents, water levels
Wave stress, bottom dragOCEAN
Model Configuration
• One month continuous data assimilation in both the atmosphere
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-1
-0.5
0
0.5
M1 bias M1 rms M2 bias M2 rms
No Assimilation
2-way
• The 2-way coupled simulation has a smaller mean SST bias and RMS.
• Transitioned to operations (OPS tests successful at FNMOC and NAVO)
p(MVOI) and ocean (NCODA)
• Assimilated special glider observations from the AOSN campaign
• 12-h update cycle, 48-h forecasts• Four-nested atmospheric grids:
• 81, 27, 9, and 3 km (40 L)• Single ocean model mesh:
• 3 km (40 L) Joint with NRL-Stennis Oceanography Division
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Philippines SeaN
Philippines SeaN
Air-Ocean CouplingONR Philippine Straits Experiment
Air-Ocean CouplingONR Philippine Straits Experiment
Easterly monsoon surge produces
oceanic dipole eddy
QuikSCAT Stress COAMPS Stress
Chlorophyll Concentration(2-9, February, 2005 Weekly Composite)Model wind stress curl (20 Jan 2005)Model wind stress curl (20 Jan 2005) Model ocean surface vorticity (25 Jan 2005)
South China Sea
Sulu SeaLUZON
LUZON
MINDORO
PANAY
Manila Bay
South China SeaLubang Island
South China Sea
Sulu SeaLUZON
LUZON
MINDORO
PANAY
Manila Bay
South China SeaLubang Island
p ypair propagating west/northwest
Chlorophyll Concentration
Wind Stress Curl Ocean Sfc. Vorticity
COAMPS2-Way Coupled
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x=3 km
2 Way Coupled
Pullen et el. (GRL)
VOCALS Coupled Modeling2-Way Air-Ocean Coupling
VOCALS Coupled Modeling2-Way Air-Ocean Coupling
Daily Mean SST (Oct 20 Daily Mean SST (Oct 20 –– Nov 30, 2008) Nov 30, 2008) Daily Mean SST (Oct 20 Daily Mean SST (Oct 20 –– Nov 30, 2008) Nov 30, 2008)
70.90 55.58 83.67
2-Way1-WayAMSR-TMI
Clouds (Liquid Water Path)
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• Two-way coupling better simulates the spatial extent of cloud coverage (LWP)• New insights into cloud-turbulence- aerosol interactions & cloud variability.
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21 members (x=5 km), 12-h Forecasts25-30 June 2005
Atmospheric u-wind componentOcean u-current component
Ensemble Spread21Z 27 June 2005 (9 h)
COAMPS EnsemblesHigh-Resolution Coupled Ensembles
COAMPS EnsemblesHigh-Resolution Coupled Ensembles
Atmospheric potential temperatureOcean temperature
E W
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Maximum spread for atmospheric and oceanic temperature and winds/currents are located near
atmospheric BL top & ocean ML bottom E W
Atmosphere Ocean
COAMPS-TC Intensity Forecast Skill2011 Real-Time HFIP Models in W. Atlantic
COAMPS-TC Intensity Forecast Skill2011 Real-Time HFIP Models in W. Atlantic
COAMPS-TC: Advancements in data assimilation, physics, & coupling for TCs.
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Courtesy of James Franklin (NHC)
• COAMPS-TC was the leading intensity model in 2011 (and 2010).• Very successful collaboration between Navy and NOAA.
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Real-Time TC ModelsIrene Intensity Errors (kt)
• Widespread damage in Eastern U.S., catastrophic flooding in New England
• Maximum intensity of 105 kt (Cat. 3)
• Landfall in eastern NC at 75 kt (Cat. 1)
Hurricane Irene2011 Real-Time Example
Hurricane Irene2011 Real-Time Example
“CHALLENGES IN PREDICTING THE INTENSITY OF STORMS.” New York Times, 8/27/2011
“HOW IRENE’S FORECAST MISSED THE MARK AND WHY IT COULD HAPPEN AGAIN.” CNN, 8/30/2011
“INTENSITY REMAINS A BIG GAP IN STORM SCIENCE. The National Hurricane Center blew it on predictions of Irene’s wind speed – and it wasn’t the first time”. Miami Herald, 9/2/2011
• Forecasts were for a Cat. 3 landfall
COAMPS-TC
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After 00Z 23 SeptemberNo interpolation
“IRENE FORECASTS ON TRACK; NOT UP TO SPEED ON WIND.” Associated Press, 8/28/2011
“IRENE EXPOSES PROBLEMS FORECASTING HURRICANE INTENSITY” Alaska Dispatch, 8/28/2011
• COAMPS-TC performed well for Irene as part of the HFIP real-time demonstration, particularly during the critical landfall forecast period.
• COAMPS-TC skillfully predicted precipitation event (>15” in NC, 10-15” in N.E.)
Covariance between SLP and 700 hPa Temp (contours) 700 hPa RH (fill)
Covariance between SLP and 700 hPa Temp (contours) 700 hPa RH (fill)
• Nested adjoint modeling system.• Multi-scale sensitivity: TCS08 and ITOP.• 4D-Var development underway.
36 h N t d Adj i t R
Ensemble and Adjoint CapabilitiesEnKF Data Assimilation, Adjoint/Ensemble Sensitivity
Ensemble and Adjoint CapabilitiesEnKF Data Assimilation, Adjoint/Ensemble Sensitivity
∂KE/∂u (0-36h)
36-h Nested Adjoint RunSevere European Cyclone Xynthia
28 Feb 2010700-mb GHT
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• EnKF-DART capability.• Predictability and data impact studies.• Real-time high-res. TC ensemble forecasts.
Nest 1 (45 km)
15 km
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Radiosondes Cloud Track
CONUS
Per Observation
R C
COAMPS AdjointMesoscale Observation Impact System
COAMPS AdjointMesoscale Observation Impact System
Linked adjoints of analysis (3D-Var) and nonhydrostatic modelCOAMPS Impacts 12/24-31 2010
EPACR
adio
son
des
Clo
ud
Track
R C
Err
or
Radiosondes Cloud Track
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Observation impact depends on region of interest.
Rad
ioso
nd
es
Clo
ud
Track
Err
or
COAMPS Vertical ResolutionHigher Model Top (50 km)
COAMPS Vertical ResolutionHigher Model Top (50 km)
• 60 vertical levels
• 19 levels below 1000 m
• New Implicit Rayleigh dampening
COAMPS Levels (m)
Reduces Temp RMSE
above 10 hPa
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*COAMPS is a registered trademark of the Naval Research Laboratory
30L 60L
Higher model top (~50 km) improves upper-level temperature statistics and allows for more effective radiance assimilation (transitioned to FNMOC).
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55--day wintertime (January 1day wintertime (January 1--5, 2006)5, 2006)2 m air temperature forecast statistics2 m air temperature forecast statistics
55--day summertime (July 1day summertime (July 1--5, 2006)5, 2006)2 m air temperature forecast statistics2 m air temperature forecast statistics
Parameterization ResearchImproved Radiation ParameterizationParameterization Research
Improved Radiation Parameterization
New 4-Stream Fu-Liou Radiation Parameterization and NOAH LSM Improves 2-m Temperature Statistics
2 m air temperature forecast statistics2 m air temperature forecast statisticsCONUS 18 km gridCONUS 18 km grid
2 m air temperature forecast statistics2 m air temperature forecast statisticsCONUS 18 km gridCONUS 18 km grid
SummerSummer WinterWinter
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NRL DEP 0955 UTC 12 Nov 2008 COAMPS 54 h Surface Dust Forecastvalid 0600 UTC 12 Nov 2008
COAMPS Aerosol ModelingCoupled Aerosol Modeling Capability
COAMPS Aerosol ModelingCoupled Aerosol Modeling Capability
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• Aerosol model integrated within COAMPS.• Improved dust source database (DSD) resolves dust plumes. • High resolution DSD for Afghanistan/Pakistan in operations.
D. Westphal, M. Liu, A. Walker
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• Satellite images show sharp transition from closed to open-cell clouds during VOCALS (Oct. 2008).
COAMPS LES f ll i l t
Clouds, Aerosols, TurbulenceVOCALS Large Eddy Simulation (LES)
Clouds, Aerosols, TurbulenceVOCALS Large Eddy Simulation (LES)
• COAMPS-LES successfully simulates closed and open cell clouds with high and low aerosol number concentration.
LES LES
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Selective advection similar to 5th order Bott and has a semi-
Lagrangian
Selective Advection (t=0.5 s)Leapfrog needs a smaller time
step & has more non-physical oscillations
Leapfrog (t=0.125 s)
Numerical MethodsSelective Monotonic Advection for COAMPS
Numerical MethodsSelective Monotonic Advection for COAMPS
capability
3rd Order Bott (t=0.5 s)5th Order Bott (t=0.5 s)
WAF/NWP Conference, May 2012WAF/NWP Conference, May 201218In Collaboration with U. Wash. (D. Durran and P. Blossey)
• Selective FCT only applies flux correction near perceived discontinuities.
• Avoids oscillations at discontinuities & flux correction used where needed.
• Semi-Lagrangian flux form for efficiency and global conservation
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• Spectral Element Dynamical Core:• High order accuracy• Extremely scalable• Mesoscale, Global options (w/ MPI)
New Dynamical CoreNonhydrostatic Unified Model for the Atmosphere (NUMA)
New Dynamical CoreNonhydrostatic Unified Model for the Atmosphere (NUMA)
• Semi-implicit solver• Incorporation of physics underway
2D Squall Line w/1000 m resolution
and 10th order polynomials
AccumulationAccumulation
Clouds (shaded), Rain (contours)Clouds (shaded), Rain (contours)
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Density Current w/50 m resolution
and 8th order polynomials
Frank Giraldo (NPS), Sasa Gabersek (NRL)
RainrateRainrate
• Recent Advances to COAMPS:–Air-sea coupled system using ESMF (Operational at FNMOC, NAVO)
–COAMPS-TC tropical cyclone prediction (Ops. testing at FNMOC)
Increased vertical (50 km top 60L) & horizontal resolution (Ops testing)
Summary and Future PlansMesoscale Modeling at NRL
Summary and Future PlansMesoscale Modeling at NRL
–Increased vertical (50 km top, 60L) & horizontal resolution (Ops. testing)
–Coupled ensemble system
–New physics & numerics (land surface, Fu-Liou radiation, new KF, SMA)
• Further improvements to COAMPS and its various capabilities.–Air-sea-wave-ice capability, coupled COAMPS-TC, coupled ensembles
–Embedded transport and aerosol models, urban downscaling (Fast3D)
–New physics & numerics (microphysics, PBL, air-sea phys, semi-Lagrangian)
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–Advanced data assim. (EnKF, 4D-Var) & predictability tools (adjoint, EnKF)
• Participate in and leverage field campaigns to guide development–TCs (TCS08, ITOP, HS3), Mesoscale (PhilEX, SAANGRIA), PBL (VOCALS)
• Develop a next-generation global/mesoscale/microscale model –Possible dynamical core for Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC)
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W. Atlantic Intensity Error2010 and 2011 Seasons
W. Atlantic Intensity Error2010 and 2011 Seasons
bias is dashed
COAMPS-TC
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• COAMPS-TC has been tested in real time over WATL, EPAC, WPAC, CPAC, IO, SH.• COAMPS-TC intensity forecasts verified well for 2010 and 2011, particularly
beyond 30 h where the error growth was much slower than other models.
U.S. Navy Global Modeling SystemsNOGAPS and NAVGEM
U.S. Navy Global Modeling SystemsNOGAPS and NAVGEM
NOGAPS (current)Navy Operational Global
Atmospheric Prediction System
NAVGEM (new)Navy Global
Environmental Model
St ti R di Bi • Variational Radiance• Static Radiance Bias Correction
• 4DVAR
• Variational Radiance Bias Correction
• 4DVAR Ens Hybrid• Weak Constraint
• Eulerian Advection• T319L42
• Semi-Lagrangian Adv.• T359L42 (to T500+L80+)
• Emanuel Convection • SAS Convection
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• Harshvardhan Radiation• Diagnostic Clouds
• RRTMG Radiation• Prognostic Clouds
• ESMF• Coupling to HYCOM• NOAA Land Surface• Convective GWD