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Oakdene Hollins
Opportunities in Recycling “Critical Raw Materials”
Peter Willis 17th March 2011
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Disclaimer Oakdene Hollins Ltd believes the content of this presentation to be correct as at the date of
writing. The opinions contained in this presentation, except where specifically attributed, are those of Oakdene Hollins Ltd. They are based upon the information that was available to us at the time of writing. We are always pleased to receive updated information and opposing opinions about any of the contents.
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Oakdene Hollins’ Work
Study into the feasibility of protecting and recovering critical raw materials through infrastructure development in the South East of England (European Pathway to Zero Waste, 2011)
Assessing rare metals as supply chain bottlenecks in priority energy technologies (European Commission Institute of Energy, 2011)
Lanthanides resources and alternatives (Department for Transport, 2010)
Materials security: Ensuring resource availability for the UK economy (Resource Efficiency KTN, 2008)
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Agenda
What are the EU “Critical Raw Materials”?
Best Opportunities for Investors:AerospaceRE MagnetsFlat Panel DisplaysBatteries
Gap Analysis of Opportunities Conclusions
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Defining “Critical Raw Materials”
European Commission (2010) study “Critical Raw Materials for the EU”
41 metals and minerals assessed Combination of 2 factors:
Economic Importance Main applications Substitutability
Supply Risks Stability of producing countries Diversity of supply Recycling
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14 “Critical Raw Materials”
Source: mostly USGS for 2009; includes recycling where available
Large Volumes Small Volumes
Fluorspar – 5,100,000 Indium – 1,200
Graphite – 1,130,000 Tantalum – 1,160
Magnesium – 760,000 Platinum Group – 445
Antimony – 187,000 Beryllium – 140
Rare Earths – 124,000 Germanium – 140
Tungsten – 94,000 Gallium – 118
Niobium – 62,000
Cobalt – 62,000
Production Volumes (tonnes)
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Current Importance of China
China as leading producer of 9 materials: Germanium (71%)
Fluorspar (59%) Indium (50%)Gallium (32%)
Tantalum: Australia (48%)
Congo Kinshasa: Cobalt (40%)
Brazil: Niobium (92%)
US: Beryllium (86%)
Platinum Group: South Africa (61%)
Rare Earths (97%)
Antimony (91%)Tungsten (81%)Magnesium
(77%)Graphite (71%)
Source: USGS for 2009
Other Leading Producers:
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Demand for “Critical Raw Materials”
Galli
um
Nio
biu
m
Rare
Eart
hs
Magnesi
um
Indiu
m
Tanta
lum
Tungst
en
Anti
mony
Fluors
par
Germ
aniu
m
Bery
llium
Gra
phit
e
Pla
tinum
Grp
Cobalt
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
10.2 10.1 9.8
7.36.5
5.3 4.94.2
3.4 3.4 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.5
Forecast CAGR for 2010-2020 (%)
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Forecasts for “Critical Raw Materials”
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
107 7
53 2 1 0
-1
-6-7
-9-10
-21
Forecast Surplus (Deficit) - 2020 (%)
Pla
tinum
Grp
Indiu
m
Anti
mon
y Fluors
pa
r
Germ
aniu
m
Cobal
t
Tungst
enN
iobiu
m
Gra
phit
e
Galli
um
Magnesi
um
Rare
Eart
hs
Tanta
lum
10
Prices of “Critical Raw Materials”
Pla
tin..
.
Germ
...
Indiu
m
Galli
um
Bery
l...
Tant.
..
Nio
biu
m
Tung..
.
Rare
E..
.
Cobalt
Anti
...
Magne..
.
Gra
phit
e
Fluor.
..
$0
$1
$10
$100
$1,000
$10,000
$100,000 31,847
1,151506 499
16589
40 31 3012
6.63.3
1.16
0.42
Price – 3 year Average ($/kg)
Source: mostly Metal Pages
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Dominant Applications
Source: European Commission (2010)
Seven raw materials have over half their consumption in a single application: Antimony (Flame Retardants – 72%) Fluorspar (Chemicals - 60%) Gallium (Integrated Circuits – 66%) Germanium (Optics – 55%) Indium (Flat Panel Displays – 74%) Magnesium (Casting Alloys – 50%) Niobium (Steel Alloys – 83%) Platinum Grp (Catalysts – 60%) Tungsten (Cemented Carbides – 60%)
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Screening Methodology
Selection Criteria: Include all dominant applicationsAnalyse markets using multiple raw
materials Rank economic value of raw material
containedExamine carbon impacts of markets
Selected 12 markets for further analysis:Supply chain mapsExisting practice infrastructureTechnical feasibility & economic viabilityStakeholder consultation
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High Opportunities – Aerospace
Up to 12,000 aircraft to retire by 2020
Move away from ‘wild destruction’
Smart dismantling can recover 85% of weight
Reuse superalloys in engines (Co, Nb, Ta) & landing gear (Be)
Recycle (Al-Mg alloys) Implementation by
accreditation & standards Source: Airbus
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High Opportunities – RE Magnets
Hard disk drives (HDD) as current opportunity
Hitachi with process to cut HDD & remove RE magnets for recycling
Need to segregate, not shred with WEEE
Wind Turbines & (H)EVs as long term opportunity due to long lifetimes
Source: Hitachi
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High Opportunities – Flat Panel Displays
80% of In used to make ITO (mostly for FPs)
Recycling of In process waste common
Easy to separate FPs from WEEE as easily recognisable
Pilot scale technologies being developed to remove ITO to recycling
Medium timeframe for FPs in waste stream
Solar PV for long term
Source: ValpakSource: WRAP
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High/Med Opportunities – Batteries
800 t of NiMH, 600 t of Li-ion in UK waste
Low collection rates for portable batteries: NiMH (2%) & Li-ion (1.5%)
Need for better collection & labelling
Co recovered but RE & Graphite lost in slag
Optimise recycling (H)EV batteries as
long term opportunity Possible (cascaded)
reuse
Source: Valpak
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Other Opportunities Identified
Improve collection: Beverage Cans (Magnesium) Catalytic Convertors (Platinum Groups)
Medium Opportunities: Cemented Carbide Tools (Cobalt,
Tungsten) Catalysts (Rare Earths) Flame Retardants (Antimony) Steel Production (Graphite, Fluorspar)
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Gap Analysis on Recycling
Indiu
m
Anti
mony
Magnesi
um
Tungst
en
Cobalt
Pla
tinum
Grp
Rare
Eart
hs
Bery
llium
Nio
biu
m
Gra
phit
e
Tanta
lum
Galli
um
Fluors
par
Germ
aniu
m
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
7672
6860
54 5243
158 6 5 2 1 0
Consumption in High & Medium Opportun-ities
Raw
Mate
rial C
on
sum
pti
on
(%
)
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Conclusions
Recycling not enough: High demand growth Long product lifetimes Problem of dispersive usage
Recycling can contribute to supply: Improve collection Advanced sorting techniques Implement new technology Design for disassembly & reuse
Some raw materials with little opportunity: Dispersive applications Consumed in process
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Peter Willis
www.oakdenehollins.co.ukRead the full report, available shortly on our website!