Regional Housing Market Perspective
HANLEY WOOD MARKET INTELLIGENCE
Formerly Meyers GroupStephen Smiley (925) 737-1110 x224 [email protected]
WHO IS HANLEY WOOD MARKET INTELLIGENCE?
Information: Nation’s leading provider of residential real estate information
– Covering 30 major metropolitan areas nationwide– Addressing active subdivisions and the entitlement
pipeline
Consulting: Customized analysis for residential and master planned communities
– 848 studies in 22 states in 2004– Pricing strategies, absorption studies, product
analysis and strategic planning
EXPANSION MOTIVATIONS
Increase Revenue
Expand Scale to Enhance Valuation
Geographic Diversification to Lower Risk
Product Expansion and Land Inventories
“The Closer In Markets Are Taken”
San Joaquin Map
Stanislaus Map
Merced Map
Fresno Map
0%
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San Diego Orange County LA/Ventura Inland Empire
Bay Area Sacramento Central Calif
NEW HOME AFFORDABILITY RATIOMajor California Markets
Note: Data is for 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage and 2005* figures are based on 1Q05 data.Source: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market IntelligenceNote: Data is for 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage and 2005* figures are based on 1Q05 data.Source: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence
1st Quarter 2005 StatisticsOrange County 3.8%San Diego 6.4%LA/Ventura 14.3% Inland Empire 15.3%Bay Area 14.5%Sacramento 16.7%Central California 16.9%
1st Quarter 2005 StatisticsOrange County 3.8%San Diego 6.4%LA/Ventura 14.3% Inland Empire 15.3%Bay Area 14.5%Sacramento 16.7%Central California 16.9%
DETACHED MEDIAN PRICECentral Valley
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2005
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$408k (+44%)221% increase from 1st Qtr 1995
Note: 2005* figures are based on 1Q05 dataSource: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market IntelligenceNote: 2005* figures are based on 1Q05 dataSource: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence
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NEW DET. HOME TRENDS IN PRICE & VALUE/SF Central Valley
Median Price=$407,859 (+44%)Price/SF=$182 (+5.2%)
Merced = $181k (+10.3%)San Joaquin= $200k (+7%)Stanislaus = $171k (+5.6%)
Note: 2005* figures are based on 1Q05 dataSource: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market IntelligenceNote: 2005* figures are based on 1Q05 dataSource: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence
AVERAGE DETACHED NEW HOME PRICESCommuter Corridor/Hwy 5 & 99
January 2005
Tri-ValleyDublin $1,084, 975Livermore $1,207,301San Ramon $916,837
Central CaliforniaTracy $581,622Patterson $490,159Lathrop $461,191Los Banos $401,046Manteca $394,134 Stockton $388,076Modesto $354,209Fresno $309,518Merced $288,604
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Merced San Joaquin Stanislaus
SAN JOAQUIN MOST ACTIVE SUBMARKETCentral Valley
Source: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence.Source: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence.
San Joaquin Captures 47% of Sales
San Joaquin 53.1% in 1997
NEW HOME EXECUTIVE SUMMARY REPORT 1st QUARTER 2005
Price Price/sq/ft Last 4 Quarters
% Capture Current Quarter
% Capture
Merced $336,190 $181 2,164 11.4% 602 12.3%
San Joaquin $464,990 $200 4,804 25.4% 1,085 22.2%
Stanislaus $407,656 $171 3,997 21.1% 967 19.8%
Central Valley
$407,859 $182 10,965 58.0% 2,654 54.3%
Median Detached Base Total Sales (Detached & Attached)
Counties
Source: New Home Executive Summary Report, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence.
Current Median Price and New Home Sales over Past Four
Quarters
San Joaquin $464,990 4,804 sales Stanislaus $407,656 3,997 sales Merced $336,190 2,164 sales Fresno region $307,500 5,625 sales Kern County $295,750 2,320 sales
DET. SALES: MAJORITY NOW OVER $350KCentral Valley
0275550825
11001375165019252200
<$100K $100K-$150K
$150K-$200K
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$400K-$450K
$450K-$500K
YTD Net Sales by Price Range
Source: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence
YTD Net Sales 2004
4% Over $500K 7% Over $450K 13% Over $400K 18% Over $350K 25% Over $300K 17% Over $250K 8% Over $200K 2% Over $150K.001% Over $100K .001% under $100K
INVENTORY REMAINS LOWCentral Valley
Source: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence
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Central ValleyFuture Supply
County Active Mapped Total San Joaquin 3,357 19,242
22,599 Stanislaus 3,808 7,583
11,391 Merced 2,993 8,435 11,428
Projected Supply (Based on 2004 Sales) San Joaquin 4.17 years (5,414 sales/yr) Stanislaus 2.81 years (4,084 sales/yr) Merced 5.43 years (2,103 sales/yr)
RESALES HIT NEW RECORD IN 2004Central CA
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2004 - 56,026 Sales2004 - 56,026 Sales
Source: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence
2004 TOP BUILDERSCENTRAL VALLEY
Builder Sales Market Share # of Projects
KB Home 741 6.4% 15
California Homes 726 6.3% 20
Ranchwood Homes 650 5.6% 12
Meritage Homes 591 5.1% 10
Woodside Homes 582 5.0% 10
Forecast Homes 507 4.4% 13
Kimball Hill Homes 419 3.6% 7
Morrison Homes 401 3.5% 9
Dunmore Homes 371 3.2% 8
Ryland Homes 336 2.9% 7
Source: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence
1Q05 TOP BUILDERSCENTRAL VALLEY
Builder Sales Market Share # of Projects
KB Home 210 7.9% 8
Ranchwood Homes 200 7.5% 13
Kimball Hill Homes 150 5.7% 6
California Homes 147 5.5% 8
Woodside Homes 119 4.5% 7
Meritage Homes 116 4.4% 7
Forecast Homes 87 3.3% 4
Morrison Homes 87 3.3% 8
Ryland Homes 80 3.0% 4
JKB Homes 78 2.9% 4
Source: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence
2004 TOP BUILDERSFRESNO MSA
Builder Sales Market Share # of Projects
Centex Homes 538 11.0% 22
Cambridge-Lennar 476 9.7% 17
Wathen/Castanos 455 9.3% 6
Wilson Homes 391 8.0% 5
Granville Homes 323 6.6% 10
McMillin Homes 303 6.2% 8
Ennis Homes 298 6.1% 14
Bonadelle Dev 234 4.8% 5
Smee Builders 186 3.8% 4
McCaffrey Group 175 3.6% 6
Source: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence
1Q05 TOP BUILDERSFRESNO MSA
Builder Sales Market Share # of Projects
Centex Homes 235 14.1% 12
Cambridge-Lennar 190 11.4% 8
Ennis Homes 100 6.0% 8
Wathen/Castanos 99 6.0% 3
Granville Homes 91 5.5% 6
McMillin Companies 78 4.7% 5
McCaffrey Group 62 3.7% 2
McMillin Homes 55 3.3% 3
Smee Builders, Inc. 55 3.3% 3
Wilson Homes 53 3.2% 4
Source: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence
News and Notes from Central Valley:
In the entire Central California region, builders had detached net sales of 18,508 homes through 2004, representing an increase of 3.5% over 2003.
The detached average prices in Central California rose 32% from 2003 to $369,845. The highest increases were found in Central Valley were new homes commanded an average price of $409,488. By comparison, the Kern County submarket base prices increased to $298,452, followed by the Fresno market which increased to $305,661.
Central Valley with 163 projects had 93% of its sales occurring in homes priced at over $300,000.
GOING FORWARD Look for additional product in Mountain House,
Lathrop, etc. Growth control in Tracy, etc. Merced/Madera will continue to expand. Lot prices continue to increase has more builders look
towards the area to expand. The Bay Area will always impact the market, however,
local valley move-up buyers now a major market. Due to increased equity and low interest rates.
Price points increasing. Tracy/Lathrop towards the high $500,000’s, other areas into the mid $400,000’s.
Look for more slow growth measures to come to a vote over the next few years
Markets expanding south of Fresno, communities such as Selma, Sanger, Reedley, etc
Bay Area/Sacramento builders need to keep pipeline filled.
WHERE CAN WE FIND CHEAP LAND?