GCARD 2, Punta Del Este, 29/10 to 1/11
Regional scenarios: potential to influence policy
Katindi Sivi Njonjo, program director Kenya, Society for International Development
2 • 3/21/11
• CCAFS and ECI Oxford are organizing regional socio-economic scenarios in CCAFS regions to build regional capacity for governance: improving food security, environments and livelihoods across sectors under uncertainty
• Society for International Development
• Panos
• CCAFS, SID, PANOS have facilitated the development and use of regional scenarios with regional stakeholders across sectors in East Africa
Regional scenarios in EA:CCAFS, SID, PANOS
3 • 3/21/11
• Socio-economic scenarios explore future uncertainties for the region in terms of their effects on food security, environments and livelihoods
• Stakeholder-driven scenarios combined with modelling; complementary to climate scenarios
• SID: inter-sectoral engagement partner and facilitators with long regional scenarios experience; civil society perspective
• PANOS: documenting and disseminating the process; providing media perspective
Regional scenarios in EA:CCAFS, SID, PANOS
4 • 3/21/11
Fragmented status quo
Reactive governance
Proactivegovernance
Regional integrationIndustrious ants Herd of Zebra
Lone Leopards Sleeping Lions
5 • 3/21/11
•Scenarios used in planning workshops: civil society and some private sector actors; policy workshop with senior policy advisors
•Choice to go for technical advisors to get in-depth perspective – potential to influence policy
Regional scenarios in EA:CCAFS, SID, PANOS
6 • 3/21/11Planning with scenarios
Shared future goals
Decision makers in
the present
Scenarios as diverse future contexts
What challenges and opportunities do we face in each scenario context as we try to get from our
desired futures to the present?
7 • 3/21/11
•Scenarios used in planning workshops: civil society and some private sector actors; policy workshop with senior policy advisors
•Choice to go for technical advisors to get in-depth perspective – potential to influence policy
Regional scenarios in EA:CCAFS, SID, PANOS
8 • 3/21/11
• Participants report strong learning through scenarios and back-casting
• Resulting plans tackle CSO and FO voices in regional governance
• Plans are specifically focused on building regional capacity
• EAC officer to budget meeting: non-state actor partnerships are essential
Results so far
9 • 3/21/11
• Plans have yet to become reality• The most senior policy makers
have yet to be involved – workshop format might not be most appropriate
• We have yet to track impact of people taking the work back to their ministries
• Competing interests in ministries; political reality competing with practicality of solutions
• High-level private sector actors have yet to be engaged
Challenges
10 • 3/21/11
• SID: continual stakeholder engagement
• Organizing meetings and contact between smaller groups of state and non-state partners specifically related to workshop plans
• Engaging wider stakeholders: policy makers, private sector
• PANOS: dissemination, visibility, engagement on a broader scale through radio, video, newspapers, social media
Way forward and role of SID and PANOS
11 • 3/21/11
KATINDI EMAIL INSERT
CGARD brief: No foresight, no food? http://www.egfar.org/sites/default/files/files/Foresight%20Briefs/Joost_Vervoort_Brief03_Final.pdf
Thank you
12 • 3/21/11
• Duration: about 2.5 years, shorter in new regions
• By CCAFS/University of Oxford and local partners Society for International Development and PANOS
• Involved around 100 stakeholders from all sectors at a regional level, including EAC
• Cost: around 600K USD in EA• Funded by CCAFS, new model
involves other sponsors
Features of the process
14 • 3/21/11
• Non-state actors workshop: predominantly civil society including East African Farmers Federation and others
• Plans for engagement with state actors under different scenarios were developed and partnerships proposed
• Later, in policy workshop with the EAC, the role of farmers federations and specifically the EAFF came up as a key role to support by governments
Equitable partnerships
15 • 3/21/11
• Shifting the global role of researchers in multi-stakeholder foresight spaces
• Inclusive and equitable regional capacity for strategy development needs to be supported on a continual basis to develop partnerships and get to action
• Supporting experienced local (e.g. regional) CSOs with a relatively neutral position, experience in the methodology and a good network to be the focal point for partnerships
Call to action
16 • 3/21/11
CGARD brief: No foresight, no food? http://www.egfar.org/sites/default/files/files/Foresight%20Briefs/Joost_Vervoort_Brief03_Final.pdf
Chaudhury M, Vervoort J, Kristjanson P, Ericksen P, Ainslie A (2012) Participatory scenarios as a tool to link science and policy on food security under climate change in East Africa. Regional Environmental Change:1-10
Thank you