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JAPAN EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI 2011
INTRODUCTION AND CURRENT SITUATION
On March 11, 2011, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake struck the Island of Honshu, Japan with its epicenter in the Sendai province.This earthquake triggered a 12 meter high tsunami event along the eastern coast of Honshu. The combined force of thesetwo catastrophic events, and further exacerbated by a continuous cycle of daily earthquakes measuring between 4.5 and 7.1in intensity, as defined by the Richter scale, has caused significant damage throughout Japan. The degree of damagesuffered by the cities, villages and industrial facilities of Japan is significant and Japan’s economy was severely affected. Asa result of these events, Japan suffered significant damage, disruptions, costs and risks.
The Bank of Japan has injected over $700 billion since the catastrophe to support business and the economy. Wholecommunities and their supporting facilities were virtually destroyed. Casualties in terms of confirmed loss of life has totaled10,000 mark as of Friday, April 9th and was still climbing.
As of today, hundreds of thousands of survivors are still encamped in temporary shelters. Some 660,000 households do not
have water; more than 209,000 do not have electricity. Earthquake related damage claims could rise as high as $310 billion,Japan’s government said, making it the most costly natural disaster on record.
The total death toll from the disaster could rise much higher. Japan’s National Police Agency said that more than 17,400people are still missing. The actual totals are difficult to project, as for example police from one of the hardest-hitprefectures, Miyagi, estimate that the deaths will top 15,000 in that region alone.
In addition to the direct human and economic costs from the event and resulting disruptions. Japan faces significant threatsand risks due to the significant damage sustained by (1) its nuclear power plant complexes, (2) oil refineries, (3)
petrochemical facilities and (4) industrial chemical factories. It appears certain that the failure of several nuclear reactors atthe Fukushima Nuclear Power facility will occur and very soon. There could be a substantial release of radioactive materialincluding very dangerous and deadly isotopes of Plutonium, Cesium, Iodine and Strontium. Given the proximity ofFukushima, which is located 140 miles (220 kilometers) northeast of Tokyo, to Japan’s major cities approximately 80% of thepopulation of Japan will likely suffer some level of injury, both temporary and permanent, and death either immediately or farsooner than the victims’ expected lifetimes. Tokyo itself has a population of approximately 13.7 million in the city and over 35million in the metropolitan area). The population of Japan is approximately 135 million.
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JAPAN EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNMAI 2011
INTRODUCTION AND CURRENT SITUATION (CONTINUED)
Japan has been successful internally and recognized and respected as a world power. Japan’s strong and well-developedinstitutions play an essential role. These institutions have formed the backbone of Japan’s efforts to assert itself as a
constructive, respected but peaceful leader in the international arena. During normal times the cooperative spirit between the
government and business has supported the strong growth and leading position that Japan has historically earned. However,the recent catastrophe and collateral damage has exposed Japan’s and its major institutions to a high degree of impairment.This has increased the level of risk globally. If Japan’s institutions were to fail because they were not properly supported by a
resilient infrastructure then Japan would not be able to meet either its domestic or international obligations. If Japan fails todeliver on its obligations to the world community, there would be significant consequences that would result in world economicdisruptions, business failures and other costly gaps in terms of world political leadership, systems, social processes, etc. whichare valuable but not necessarily quantifiable.
Given the extremely fragile state of its nuclear facilities, particularly Fukushima, Japan is highly likely to experience a
catastrophic event. This will result in the long term impairment of approximately 70% to 80% of its land, air and water supply,never mind the projected casualty rates and economic damage. This could force up to 70% of Japan’s industrial capacity to be
shut down. Pollution from the release of radioactive matter, particularly Plutonium, Cesium and Strontium will render theenvironment of Japan as hostile and uninhabitable for time period of tens up to thousands of years.
The importance of Japan’s institutions, the risk to its population and the short time frame remaining before the likely
catastrophic event at Fukushima, make the need for Japan to act quickly to develop and implement strategies that willpreserve as much of what makes up Japan as possible. A way to do this is to employ the concept of Resilience, which largemanagement consulting firms such as McKinsey, Booz Allen & Hamilton and Accenture are well known as influential leaders in
its application. Through Resilience, Japan will be able to ensure the continuity of its institutions and the protection of itspopulation and its way of life.
A comprehensive, well-coordinated effort is required to quickly develop and implement Resilience and its supporting strategies,investments and implementation steps. We propose to coordinate and provide valuable leadership to this intensive effort.Time is not on our side, as the state of the Fukushima facility, particularly reactors 1, 2 and 3, is very fragile and vulnerable toexperiencing a catastrophic event . This event is highly likely to occur within a time period we do not believe will exceedthirty (30) days, Given the lack of historical reference for this type of disaster, the risk of multiple reactors failing and theunusual nature of this incident, we have no way to confirm the exact date and time.
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Resilience incorporates necessary strategy, systems, structures, processes and supporting investments that enable
Japan to achieve its goals, protect its institutions, resume growth and manage risk.
• Resilience, according to IBM, is the ability to rapidly adapt and respond to risks and opportunities, in order to maintaincontinuous business operations, be a more trusted partner, and enable growth.
• Resilience protects the most important institutions that define Japan, and minimizes critical risks. Given Japan’s
inherent geological instability and exposure to regular tsunami’s, Japanese must implement a high degree of readiness.
• The interruption and impairment of the globally important and influential Japanese institutions, particularly Japan’s ,economy and business operations, will expose the world to a high degree of risk and loss. The current state of theworld without considering the effects of the Japanese disaster is already tenuous at best due to global economicissues, wars and social unrest. Japan must carefully consider the national and international risks to its economy,business infrastructure, political institutions and systems, social institutions and other contributions and influences such
as art, literature, music, scientific, intellectual, leadership, religious/spiritual, philosophy etc.
• Resilience will leverage available systems and technologies as well Japanese-owned foreign real estate and humanresources to provide a platform on which migrate as many of its core operations, systems and finances to saferhavens.
• Execution of a Resilience engagement for the benefit of Japan’s leading commercial and governmental institutions willrequired an intensive and well-coordinated effort to ensure success.
• It is likely that only a short time frame is available to approve and initiate the Resilience effort.
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Source: IBM Corporation, MdKinsey & Co., GRA analysis
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Tokyo
JAPAN EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI
HONSHU AREAS AFFECTED SINCE EARTHQUAKE
From 11 MARCH To 8 APRIL, 2011
LEGEND:
POLLUTED/IMPAIRED AREAS
Per Official Announcement
Actual Area of Damage
Fukushima Nuclear
Complex (6 Reactors)
Tepco and government reports show the main areas of radiation exposure to be primarily outside of Japan's major population centers.
However, verified authoritative reports show these initial reports to be largely understated. Further, this is not a static or stagnant
situation. This incorporates a dynamic series of events that will effect large portions of Japan’s population, economy, institutions and
infrastructure.
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Source: International Atomic Energy Agency
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Kashima
Chiba
Kawasaki
Iwaki
Shikoku
Negishi
Tokyo
Onahama
Ibaraki
Sendai
Fukushima Nuclear Power Complex
JAPAN EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI
HONSHU: KEY NUCLEAR AND CHEMICAL AT RISK SITESAs of 7-April 2011
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Due to the damage and resultant release of hazardous and toxic materials, substantially 70% to 80% of the Japanese
mainland will be substantially polluted by a combination of radiation, oil refinery and industrial chemical related
accidents. Nuclear power plant related pollution could take up to thousands of years to dissipate while other damage
such as industrial, chemical and sea water will take between 10 to 50 years to clean up.
Tokai Nuclear Power Complex
Onagawa Nuclear Site
Rokkasho RP
Nuclear Release Site
Petro/Chemical Release Site
For Reference see Appendix A-2
Global Resilience Advisors 5
Source: Chemical Industry News and Intelligence
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JAPAN EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI
PROJECTED RADIATION EXPOSURE TO POPULATED
AREASPost Predicted Fukushima Catastrophic Event
LEGEND:
Affected Areas
Assumes Weather at Site: Wind S/SW @ 10 km/h
80% of the population of Japan lives within “Harms Way”, that is within the range of greatestimpact of the impending nuclear disaster at Fukushima. At least three nuclear reactors havea high probability of self-destruction.
THE PREDICTED CASUALTY RATE FOR THE JAPANESE POPULATION IS VERY HIGH.
Chart Symbols – Locators
Nuclear Reactor Unit
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Fukushima Nuclear Power Complex:3 Critically Damaged Reactor Units
Source: Institut de Radioprotection, et de Surete,Nuclearie GRA analysis
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Kawasaki
Shikoku
Levels of Contamination
Prohibited: 15 miles (500 years plus)
Exclusion: 180 miles (15-50 years)
Exposure: Long Term Health Consequences
Kashima
Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant
Ibaraki
Onahama
Iwaki
Sendai
Tokyo
NegishiChiba
JAPAN EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI
IMPENDING FUKISHIMA NUCLEAR CATASTROPHE
ESTIMATED RADIATION COVERAGE AND IMPACT
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80% of the arable and habitable land area of Honshu will be unusable and even hostile.The human and other living creatures’ casualty rate will be historically high.
THE POTENTIAL CASUALTY RATE FOR THE JAPANESE POPULATION IS VERY HIGH.
Source: Department of Physics and Center for Experimental Nuclear Physics and Astrophysics,University of Washington
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The consequences of the environmental damage and other disruptions already sustained by Japan, to be
further magnified by the predicted catastrophe at Fukushima, will critically Impair key Japanese institutions,
particularly its economy and business community. This will negatively affect countries and international
institutions, economically, financially and otherwise.
JAPAN EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNMAMI
DIMENSIONS OF JAPANESE INSTITUTIONS
SUMMARY OF MAJOR DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL RISKS
INSTITUTION DOMESTIC RISK INTERNATIONAL IMPACT
• Economy • Default of a significant portion of Public
Debt at $2.3 Trillion (70% held by Japanese
citizens)
• Default of a significant share of PrivateDebt and the evaporation of Public Equity
of approximately $7.5 Trillion
• Loss of Private Equity Value of
approximately $ TBD (multi-trillions of US
dollars)
• Loss of value of international trade, funds
flows, foreign exchange transactions,multiplier effects > $25 Trillion per year
• Loss of ability to grow and produce nearly
100% of food supply – higher prices, and
supply shortages
• Loss of Yen value in foreign exchange reserves
• Negative Impact on world money supply, currency
markets, money flows, public equity values and
balance of payments
• International trade disruptions leads to shortages of
goods
• Sharp decrease in the value of Japan-related
investments both direct and indirect
• Loss of specialized and commodity food exports
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INSTITUTION DOMESTIC RISK INTERNATIONAL IMPACT
Business • Impairment of Capital Markets – sharp reduction of
value and impairment of Japanese institutions and
their ability to access the capital markets domesticallyand internationally – Sharply higher cost of capital
• Halt of to up to 70% of manufacturing and services
industries’ activities for potentially many years
• Supply chain disruption.
• Loss of Privately-held total Equity Value $TBD
• Exodus of, injury to, and death of managers,
executives, bankers and investors
• Domestic supply chain disruptions lead to international subsidiary
shutdowns
• Disruptions of capital and operating cash flows to foreign
subsidiaries, affiliates, other business partners impact international
subsidiaries’ and foreign partners’ performance
• Foreign subsidiaries will become dysfunctional at the management
levels
• Foreign governments will lose tax revenues
• Japanese operations of foreign companies have already begun to
shut down and may report write-downs and write-offs
Political • Japanese government stability will be jeopardized.
There will be calls to dissolve the current government
and replace it with a new institution. This could be
continuous and less peaceful.
• Key institutions (e.g., political parties, government
agencies, MITI and JETRO) will be unable to function
and will not be able to provide the traditional
expected stability that comes from the cooperative
relationships between government and industry.
• Government will be unable or largely ineffective in
dealing with the aftermath of this crisis and likely
future crises.
• Japanese government no longer to can sustain its role as a
supporter and participant in a wide range of important
international institutions on a regional, global or economic basis
• The ability for allies and members of international organizations to
rely on Japan as a stable, strong country will be impaired.
JAPAN EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNMAMI
DIMENSIONS OF JAPANESE INSTITUTIONS
SUMMARY OF MAJOR DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL RISKS (CONTINUED)
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JAPAN EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNMAMI
DIMENSIONS OF JAPANESE INSTITUTIONS
SUMMARY OF MAJOR DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL RISKS (CONTINUED)
INSTITUTION DOMESTIC RISK INTERNATIONAL IMPACT
Social • Ability to support the core values of Japanese societies
will be more difficult. Japan’s citizens may acceleratethe current tendency to adopt Western style values
and practices.
• Social institutions including family, religion, school, the
media, government, and corporations all affect
culture.
• The family, social classes, group behavior, age groups,
and how societies define decency and civility willchange as Japanese people have cope with challenges
on their homeland, and struggle to maintain their
identity. This will be particularly due to the imperative
for an exodus of a substantial part of Japan’s
population to other countries. Japan, currently
benefits from a 98.5% concentration of ethnic
Japanese. The population diversity will increase as its
citizens interact with and intermarry with other ethnic
groups, particularly in other countries.
• Family, religious values, school and education, and
literacy rates which are cornerstones of Japanese
culture and society will be impaired and diluted.
• Media (magazines, TV, the Internet) will change and
possibly weaken as Japanese identity is diluted and
challenged.
• Social institutions including family, religion, school, the
media, government, and corporations all affect culture
• The ability of Japan to protect, promote and support its
various world-wide social institutions will be impaired
as the population is physically dispersed and inter-
relations and inter-marriage with other ethnic groups
occur.
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INSTITUTION DOMESTIC RISK INTERNATIONAL RISK
• Other/Cultural (Includes Arts,
Literature, History, Sciences,
Philosophy, Religion)
• Japan’s proud and distinct arts, architecture, literature,
media, philosophies and religion will be challenged as
Japanese both grow disillusioned and succumb to the
forces to assimilate with other peoples and cultures
• The world will miss the distinct proud and
defined Japanese cultural, scientific,
philosophical and religious characteristics and
contributions.
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JAPAN EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNMAMI
DIMENSIONS OF JAPANESE INSTITUTIONS
SUMMARY OF MAJOR DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL RISKS (CONTINUED)
OTHER/CULTURAL
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Fukushima reactors 1, 2 & 3 have each sustained substantial damage. They are UNSAFE.
JAPAN EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI 2011FUKUSHIMA REACTORS 1, 2 & 3: CURRENT MEASUREMENTS VS. OPERATING STANDARDS
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* Temperature sensors fail at temperatures > 1,000 °C, therefore the actual reactor temperature is unknown but apparently well above the maximum allowed temperature
Sources: US Army Corps of Engineers, Tokyo Electric Power Company Inc, and Japan Federal Ministry for Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety
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Not only are the reactors at Fukushima UNSAFE, they are likely to experience a catastrophic event within a
short time frame, potentially 30 days from today.
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JAPAN EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI 2011FUKUSHIMA REACTORS 1, 2 & 3: LIKELY CATASTROPHIC EVENT JUSTIFICATIONSOURCE: SATELLITE RECONNAISSANCE DATA
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INFORMATION SOURCES INFORMATION IMPLICATIONS FOR REACTORS 1, 2 & 3
• RECONNASSANCE SATELLITE • Thermal Imaging shows that the level of
heat emanating from the reactors is
significant.
• Image of Fukushima #3 from 350 miles
above the Earth. White represents
extreme heat.
• Steel liners in the containment building
are ruptured (concrete is absorbing heat
directly from fission activity).
• Salinification of the reactor core (hard
salt encasement) has occurred around
control rods, making them less effective.
• ALL 3 REACTORS ARE UNSTABLE AND
THE SITUATION IS DETERIORATING
RAPIDLY.
Sources: TEPCO, Federal Ministry for Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nuclearie, Japan Atomic
Industrial Forum, IAEA, US Air Force, US Army Corps of Engineers, US Army NBC Command, NHK, CNN, and Bloomberg Images: Manufacturer T-Hawk, NRO,
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JAPAN EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI 2011FUKUSHIMA REACTORS 1, 2 & 3: LIKELY CATASTROPHIC EVENT JUSTIFICATIONT-HAWK UNMANNED DRONE AIRCRAFT SURVEILLANCE (CONTINUED)
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INFORMATION SOURCE INFORMATION IMPLICATIONS FOR REACTORS 1, 2 & 3
• T-HAWK UNMANNED AIRCRAFT
(USAF)
• Fission continues to take place in the
cores of Units 1, 2 & 3.
• Fission in storage pools for Reactors 1,
2, 3, & 4 is still occurring.
• There is not enough cold water flowinginto the reactor buildings to stop or
"cool" fission.
• The fission process in the reactors was
not stopped when the reactors were
“scrammed”.
Accumulated heat will "cook“ the
concrete which will further fracture.
Increase in water loss leads to faster“Domino Effect”: Heat => reactions
=> more decay => hydrogen gas build
up in the containment structure.
Build up of Hydrogen gas will cause
“explosion.”
• UNSTABLE REACTORS WILL RUNAWAY
AND POTENTIALLY SELF-DESTRUCT.
Sources: TEPCO, Federal Ministry for Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nuclearie, Japan Atomic
Industrial Forum, IAEA, US Air Force, US Army Corps of Engineers, US Army NBC Command, NHK, CNN, and Bloomberg Images: Manufacturer T-Hawk, NRO,
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INFORMATION SOURCE INFORMATION IMPLICATIONS FOR REACTORS 1, 2 & 3
• INFORMED OFFICIALS
(Un-named due to nature of their roles
and responsibilities for the purposes of
this presentation)
• Several governmental and corporate
sources confirmed that Fukushima
reactors 1, 2 & 3 are likely to experience
as catastrophic, destructive event.
• “Reactors 2 & 3 are widely believed to
be destined for a bad end for a variety
of reasons.” – leading Energy expert
• “… Unfortunately, it seems your
predictions are becoming real. I just
wish the worst could be avoided.” –
Leading Japanese Executive
• There is broad consensus as to the
likelihood of a catastrophic outcome in
Fukushima and its near-term timing.
• There will be a release of radioactive gasat Fukushima. Some of this particulate
matter will find its way to the U.S.
Mainland.
JAPAN EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI 2011FUKUSHIMA REACTORS 1, 2 & 3: LIKELY CATASTROPHIC EVENT JUSTIFICATION(CONTINUED)
Sources: TEPCO, Federal Ministry for Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nuclearie, Japan Atomic
Industrial Forum, IAEA, US Air Force, US Army Corps of Engineers, US Army NBC Command, NHK, CNN, and Bloomberg Images: Manufacturer T-Hawk, NRO,
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JAPAN EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI
RESILIENCE INITIATIVE RECOMMENDATIONS
REASONS FOR ADOPTING A RESILIENCE STRATEGY AND DISCIPLINE, NOW
• Japan will more than “Save Face” in what appears to be a very difficult and even hopeless situation – the leaders,
executives and managers of both industry and government will appear heroic to the Japanese people and the
international community . Japan will likely merit a level of respect and reverence equivalent to modern Samurai
and Shoguns
• By migrating the key systems and other information that define Japan, Resilience will protect a large proportion of
Japans' $30 trillion-plus world economic role as well as its other important world affairs leadership, financial and
social/cultural contributions, participation and influence
• Maintaining the Resiliency of Japan's political and social institutions will support the continuation andreinforcement of the many unique and highly valued aspects of Japan, including its society, culture, values,
religion, philosophy, media and trends
• The cost of adopting and implementing Resilience for Japan will be far less than the $700 billion + that has been
injected by the Bank of Japan since March 11th to support Japan’s priorities including the economy, stock market
and Tepco
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BENEFITS/UPSIDES
• Fukushima disaster is averted – yet Japan still has a viable plan for the future as there are many dangers
and unknowns facing Japan and others in the future
•The world community appreciates the products of Japan’s resilience initiatives and elevates Japan and its
leaders to a high level, possibly equivalent to the Shoguns and Samurai of ancient Japan. As a result
Japans leaders may earn recognition for their strength, leadership, vision and discipline.
RISKS/DOWNSIDES
• The highly probable Fukushima Nuclear Reactor Explosion event may have a worse impact than forecast
on Japan and possibly internationally.
• Project management issues including cost overruns, billing receivables issues, client communications,
etc.
• The timeline for planning and implementing Reslience is stretched out due to issues in the economy,
businesses and/or skill set of the selected consulting firm.
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Japan, including its leading companies (Zaibatsu’s) and government, has limitedrisk and much to gain and protect by embracing and incorporating Resilience intoits core practices.
JAPAN EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI
RESILIENCE EFFORT BENFITS AND RISKS TO JAPAN
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JAPAN EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMIRESILIENCE CONCEPTS, STRATEGY AND IMPLEMENTATIONNEXT STEPS
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• Gain consensus with clients, current and potential in Japan and/or working closely with Japanese companies
and institutions to gain consensus on the need for Resilience for Japan.
• Agree on the scope of the initial phase of this project as timely
• Prepare and finalize the requisite agreements
• Proceed with starting to plan and structure a Resilience initiative
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Biography /CV
WARREN C. NAGLER, FOUNDER, CHAIRMAN AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
Global Resilience Advisors 19
WARREN NAGLER has over 20 years of business experience as a management consultant, private equity professional and
executive. Mr. Nagler has worked for leading international management consulting firms Booz, Allen & Hamilton, Inc. and
Accenture, Inc. (formerly Andersen Consulting). He has held financial director, vice president of finance and chief financial
officer positions with Pizza Hut, Inc. (a subsidiary of PepsiCo, Inc. (now YUM Brands, Inc.)), Liberty Hardware, a division of
the Masco Corp., Kemper National Services, Inc. (a division of the Kemper Insurance Company), and JB Oxford & Company.
He has. many years of experience in Strategy, Finance and Information Technology.
Consulting and private equity engagements experience include:
• Founded and developed GlobalBanc, LLC which is designed to change consumer savings and payments systems
similar to a bank, all over the world
• Served as Chief Operating Officer of the Western Hemisphere subsidiary of the world’s second largest manufacturer
of disposable shaving razors and related personal care products
• Developed a marketing and product distribution strategy for a Japanese manufacturer of sporting goods equipment
• Served as an interim Controller of a telecommunications firm• Assisted in the acquisition of a number of medical properties for a publicly traded REIT
• Recommended a new investment selection, review and management processes for the $1.8 billion pension plan of a
major Japanese automobile manufacturer
• Raised equity and debt capital for a European travel company and a worldwide distributor of aviation industry metals
• Assisted in the negotiation in the $40 + million acquisition of and the due diligence for an acquisition of a dairy
processing plant by a large foreign-owned dairy products manufacturer
During the Hurricane Andrew Disaster in Florida in 1992 Mr. Nagler assisted PepsiCo in bringing generators, food and water
to residents of hurricane ravaged South Miami, FL and established a private equity fund that acquired and rebuilt homesthat had been damaged by a Force 5 (maximum) hurricane.
Mr. Nagler earned his MBA from the Harvard Business School . He received his BA in Economics from the University of
California, Berkeley where he served as student government Chief Financial Officer and a member of a Chancellor’s Advisory
Committee. He has earned Series 7, 66 and 27 license designations from FINRA (formerly the NASD).