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Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis –

City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

Prepared for:

The City of Elliot Lake

November 22, 2012

November 21, 2012

Mr. Rob De Bortoli CAO, Elliot Lake Elliot Lake City Hall 45 Hillside Drive North Elliot Lake, ON, P5A 1X5

Dear Mr. De Bortoli:

Re: Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis – City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

urbanMetrics inc. is pleased to submit our report, which details our analysis of the market opportunity for additional retail/service commercial space in the City of Elliot Lake.

The Elliot Lake Economic Development Advisory Committee has engaged urbanMetrics to undertake a detailed analysis of the Retail Sector in the City of Elliot Lake in light of the Algo Mall tragedy and provide the Community with a formal assessment of the retail/service commercial growth prospects in the short, medium and long-term. As a result of the Algo Mall closure, almost 20% of the commercial capacity in the City of Elliot Lake has been eliminated. This report provides an assessment of the existing and future market demand for a full range of retail/service commercial and identifies the warranted additional space in each store category. It is also intended to provide Elliot Lake with a strategy for managing its retail and service commercial space to ensure that the appropriate balance of goods and services is available locally.

The analyses and appendices in the attached report provide our detailed study findings and conclusions.

Yours truly,

urbanMetrics inc. Peter Thoma, MCIP, RPP, PLE Partner

Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

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T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S

1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................ 3

1.1 STUDY APPROACH .......................................................................................................................................... 3 1.1.1 RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS....................................................................................................................... 3

1.2 ASSUMPTIONS .................................................................................................................................................. 4

2 RETAIL AND SERVICE COMMERCIAL MARKET ANALYSIS .......................................... 5

2.1 TRADE AREA DELINEATION ...................................................................................................................... 5 2.2 MARKET CHARACTERISTICS ..................................................................................................................... 5

2.2.1 HISTORIC & FORECAST POPULATION .................................................................................................. 6 2.2.2 PER CAPITA INCOME .................................................................................................................................... 6

2.3 REVIEW OF RETAIL COMPETITION ........................................................................................................ 7 2.3.1 EXISTING TRADE AREA RETAIL FACILITIES ..................................................................................... 7 2.3.2 PROPOSED COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENTS ..................................................................................... 8

3 RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS .................................................................................................. 9

3.1 FOOD STORE RETAIL (FSR) ANALYSIS .................................................................................................. 9 3.1.1 FOOD STORE EXPENDITURES .................................................................................................................. 9 3.1.2 SUPERMARKET ANALYSIS ...................................................................................................................... 11

3.2 NON-FOOD STORE RETAIL (NFSR) ANALYSIS ................................................................................. 13 3.2.1 NON-FOOD STORE RETAIL EXPENDITURES .................................................................................. 13 3.2.2 BUILDING AND OUTDOOR HOME SUPPLY STORE ANALYSIS ................................................ 16 3.2.3 PHARMACY AND PERSONAL CARE STORE ANALYSIS ............................................................... 18 3.2.4 CLOTHING AND ACCESSORIES STORE ANALYSIS ........................................................................ 20 3.2.5 FURNITURE, HOME FURNISHINGS AND ELECTRONICS STORE ANALYSIS..................... 22 3.2.6 GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORE ANALYSIS ................................................................................. 24 3.2.7 MISCELLANEOUS RETAIL STOREANALYSIS ................................................................................... 26

3.3 PER CAPITA SPACE ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................ 28 3.4 RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSIONS ..................................................................................... 30

4 COMMERCIAL STRATEGY .................................................................................................... 32

4.1 WARRANTED SPACE IN ELLIOT LAKE OUTSIDE PEARSON PLAZA ........................................ 32 4.2 SUMMARY OF MARKET DEPTH ............................................................................................................. 33 4.3 CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................................................... 36

APPENDIX A – ONTARIO MINISTRY OF FINANCE POPULATION PROJECTIONS ....... 40

APPENDIX B – RETAIL INVENTORY ........................................................................................ 45

APPENDIX C – NAICS CODES ...................................................................................................... 48


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APPENDIX D – RETAIL ANALYSIS BACKGROUND ............................................................... 52

APPENDIX E – CONSUMER SURVEY RESULTS ...................................................................... 56

APPENDIX F – RETAIL IMPACT ANALYSIS ............................................................................ 72

APPENDIX G – MARKET DEPTH STORE LIST ....................................................................... 81


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1 INTRODUCTION

urbanMetrics inc. has been retained by the City of Elliot Lake (‘the City’, ‘Elliot Lake’) to undertake an independent market analysis to determine the amount of additional retail/service commercial space need to serve the local market.

In this report, urbanMetrics analyze local market conditions in Elliot Lake, and neighbouring jurisdictions, to quantify the amount of warranted, additional retail space that could be built in Elliot Lake, taking into consideration the space already exists, plus the space that is “tentatively proposed” as part of Pearson Plaza redevelopment project.

1.1 STUDY APPROACH

1.1.1 RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS

The following work plan has been undertaken to evaluate the retail market opportunity for the additional retail/service commercial space in the City of Elliot Lake:

1. Trade Area Delineation: A Trade Area has been defined for the project based on a number of factors including: existing and future competition in the local area, plus the anticipated drawing power of the Pearson Plaza. The Trade Area has been further divided into a Primary Zone (Elliot Lake) and a Secondary Zone (Spanish, Blind River, North Shore, Mississagi River IRI, and Serpent River IRI).

2. Retail and Service Commercial Inventory: An inventory of retail and service commercial uses has been undertaken in the Primary Zone of the defined Trade Area, including vacant floor space.

3. Determine the Dimensions of the Trade Area Market: The population in the Trade Area has been determined for selected years of the study period to 2031. Historic and current population levels are based on the Statistics Canada 2006 and 2011 Census data. Future population levels are based on the Ontario Ministry of Finance projections for the Algoma Census Division. In addition, income and expenditure levels have been determined for Trade Area residents for a variety of food store retail (“FSR”) and non-food store retail (“NFSR”) store categories and have been analyzed based on the expenditure approach.

4. Calculate Market Opportunity: Two types of analyses have been utilized to evaluate the market opportunity for retail and service space in the Trade Area: 1) expenditure based approach for FSR and NFSR space, and 2) per capita space analysis approach to determine the appropriate amount of service space.

5. Evaluate Impact: Based on our market analysis, any sales transfers required from existing and future potential competitive stores in the City of Elliot Lake have been determined.


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Specifically, our market analysis and impact assessment has identified (a) the amount of retail and service commercial space warranted in the City of Elliot Lake; (b) the amount of space which could be accommodated beyond the space currently proposed as part of Pearson Plaza; (c) whether it would result in transfers from existing in the Primary Zone; (d) the magnitude of sales transfers, if applicable; and (e) whether the sales transfers would impact the viability of existing retailers. Extensive consumer research has been conducted by urbanMetrics in the Trade Area as a part of the analysis for this report.

1.2 ASSUMPTIONS

There are several underlying and basic assumptions upon which the validity of the findings presented in this report depend. Based on our considerable experience in the commercial planning process, we recognize and appreciate the problems associated with making broad and generalized assumptions about future market conditions. Undoubtedly, deviations from historic and current trends will take place in the future. However, basic assumptions are required to determine the extent of such deviations. The basic assumptions used in preparation of this report are summarized below.

• During the forecast period discussed in this report, a reasonable degree of economic stability will prevail in the Province of Ontario, communities in northern Ontario, and in the City of Elliot Lake.

• Estimates of future population growth in the Trade Area have been based on the Ontario Ministry of Finance population projections for Algoma, which are assumed to be reliable for the purposes of this study.

• The official statistical sources utilized in our analysis (based largely on Statistics Canada publications, which have been noted were utilized) are considered sufficiently accurate for the purposes of our analysis.

• All references to the Canadian dollar in this report, which deal with present and future periods, reflect its 2011 value. It is recognized that fluctuations in the absolute value of the dollar will likely occur during the period covered in this report. However, it is assumed that the relationship between per capita income and expenditures will remain more or less constant during the period analyzed. Since this report deals with future space additions, inflation must be excluded since it has no influence on the physical space used in retail facilities. However, real growth (excluding inflation) in expenditures has been recognized in our analysis.

• The expected first full year of operation for Pearson Plaza is expected to be 2014.

Should major changes occur that may influence the reliability of the assumptions noted above, the results of our analysis may require revisions.


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2 RETAIL AND SERVICE COMMERCIAL MARKET ANALYSIS

The various components of urbanMetrics’ retail and service commercial market demand and impact analysis is detailed in the following sections.

2.1 TRADE AREA DELINEATION

The total market influence attributed to a retail commercial development typically extends over a wide area beyond any precise boundary that can be drawn. In many cases, the shopping environment, competition, anchor tenants, and the range of goods and services offered in a project will affect the extent of this market influence. For the purpose of making reliable estimates of available market support available for the proposed retail/service commercial development on the subject site, a specific Trade Area has been defined. The Trade Area utilized in our analysis assumes that the proposed development will be characterized primarily by retail and service facilities primarily serving the daily shopping needs of Trade Area residents.

The Trade Area delineated for the subject site represents the geographic area from which retail/service commercial developments in the City of Elliot Lake are likely to attract the majority of their customer support. We have considered the location of existing retail/service commercial facilities, as well as the existing and projected population to evaluate the estimated drawing power of the proposed retail development. The Primary Zone is comprised of the City of Elliot Lake. The Secondary Zone includes the communities of Spanish, Blind River, North Shore, Mississagi River IRI, and Serpent River IRI.

Although the subject development is expected to derive the majority of its sales volume from the Trade Area population, and particularly the City of Elliot Lake, additional market support would also be derived from expenditures made by non-Trade Area residents, such as local employees, tourists, and other visitors to the local area. These expenditures represent inflow sales, which are included in our retail market demand and impact analysis. Recognizing the relatively isolated location of Elliot Lake, it is expected that retail/service commercial facilities will not derive significant support from inflow sales.

2.2 MARKET CHARACTERISTICS

In order to analyze the potential market available for retail and service commercial uses in the City of Elliot Lake, it is necessary to review historic growth trends in the Trade Area to determine future population and expenditure levels. Population growth, along with income, are the two major factors influencing the level of retail expenditures in a Trade Area and the retail space in specific store categories warranted in the market. The following subsections provide a detailed overview of the population and per capita income in the various zones of the defined Trade Area.


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2.2.1 HISTORIC & FORECAST POPULATION

Figure 2-1 details the historic, current and forecast population for the Trade Area. The 2001, 2006 and 2011 population has been based on Statistics Canada Census data, adjusted for net undercoverage in the Census. Future projections for the Trade Area are based on the Ontario Ministry of Finance estimates for the Algoma Census Division. Appendix A provides details of the population forecast.

The Primary Zone, which includes residents in the City of Elliot Lake, has been relatively constant between 2001 and 2011. The population in the Primary Zone is projected to increase by approximately 1,000 residents between 2011 and 2031. The Secondary Zone population declined between 2001 and 2011, with a decrease of approximately 570 residents. In future years, the population in the Secondary Zone is expected to decrease further, by some 60 persons. Overall, the population in the total Trade Area population is expected to increase by approximately 900 persons between 2011 and 2031.

FIGURE 2-1: HISTORIC, CURRENT, AND FUTURE POPULATION

2.2.2 PER CAPITA INCOME

Per capita income levels provide a basis for determining the retail expenditure levels of Trade Area residents. As detailed in Figure 2-2, we have calculated the per capita income levels of local residents for both Trade Area zones, based on 2006 Statistics Canada Census data. The Primary Zone has a per capita income level which is approximately 24.2% below the Provincial average. Average per capita income levels are moderately higher in the Secondary Zone, although they remain 16.0% lower than the Provincial average.

The income indexes calculated in Figure 2-2 have been utilized to estimate the per capita retail expenditure levels for various store types in each Trade Area zone. We have assumed that future residents in the Trade Area would exhibit similar income characteristics to the existing population.

2001 2006 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031Primary ZonePopulation 11,500 11,920 11,790 12,130 12,220 12,480 12,690 12,750Average Annual Increase 84 26- 113 45 52 42 12 Average Annual Growth 0.7% -0.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1%

Secondary ZonePopulation 6,290 6,000 5,720 5,820 5,780 5,690 5,580 5,660Average Annual Increase 58- 56- 33 20- 18- 22- 16 Average Annual Growth -0.9% -0.9% 0.6% -0.3% -0.3% -0.4% 0.3%

TOTAL STUDY AREA 17,790 17,920 17,510 17,950 18,000 18,170 18,270 18,410 Average Annual Increase 26 82- 147 25 34 20 28 Average Annual Growth 0.1% -0.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.1) The data for 2001, 2006 and 2011 are based on Statistics Canada Census of Canada. The population in future years is based on Ministry of Finance population projections. The population figures in this table have been adjusted to account for net undercoverage.


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FIGURE 2-2: TRADE AREA PER CAPITA INCOME

2.3 REVIEW OF RETAIL COMPETITION

The following section provides a general overview of the existing and proposed/designated commercial areas located in the Trade Area. A complete inventory of all retail/service commercial uses located in the Trade Area was conducted by urbanMetrics in August 2012. We also identified other planned retail developments in the Trade Area and vicinity, namely the proposed Pearson Plaza, based on publicly available information and discussions with municipal planning staff. These existing and planned retail/service commercial facilities in the Trade Area and vicinity have been recognized in our market analysis.

2.3.1 EXISTING TRADE AREA RETAIL FACILITIES

A full retail inventory was conducted by urbanMetrics in August 2012, to identify the existing retail/service commercial establishments in the Trade Area. Our retail market demand and impact analysis focuses on the existing inventory of stores the Primary Zone, in order to determine the warranted additional space in the local market. Appendix B provides the detailed inventory for the Primary Zone used in our retail market demand and impact analysis. Appendix C provides a description of the various store types included in each retail and service category.

Our retail inventory indicates that the Primary Zone provides approximately 392,735 square feet of retail/service commercial space, including:

• 42,652 square feet of Food Store Retail (FSR) space; • 174,340 square feet of Non-Food Store Retail (NFSR) space; and • 175,743 square feet of service space.

It is important to recognize that the existing distribution of retail/service commercial space in Elliot Lake has been impacted by the closure of the Algo Centre Mall, which previously accounted for a significant portion of the total retail space in the Primary Zone. With closure of Algo Centre Mall, Elliot Lake residents are currently under-served in terms of access to a full range of retail/service commercial facilities.

Area

Males 15 Years and

Over

Male Average Income

Females 15 Years and

Over

Female Average Income Total Income

2006 Population

Per Capita Income

Index to Province

Ontario 4,744,710 $46,962 5,074,710 $29,712 $373,600,854,540 12,160,282 $30,723 100.0%

Primary Zone 4,735 $32,628 5,075 $22,578 $269,076,930 11,549 $23,299 75.8%Secondary Zone 2,220 $39,401 2,330 $26,836 $149,998,100 5,811 $25,813 84.0%

TOTAL TRADE AREA 6,955 $34,790 7,405 $23,918 $419,075,030 17,360 $24,140 78.6%

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc., based on Statistics Canada, 2006 Census of Canada.


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2.3.2 PROPOSED COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENTS

Pearson Plaza is a new shopping centre currently proposed in Elliot Lake on a 7.63 acre site, situated along Ontario Avenue. Although the development remains in the preliminary design stages, the proposed shopping centre is expected to provide approximately 53,000 square feet of new retail space, in addition to the reconstructed Foodland supermarket (28,000 square feet), and new public library (11,000 square feet). The development is expected to include approximately 20 retailers, in addition to food court and common corridor. The proposed development concept also allocates some space for future development, which could be used to accommodate future retail demand in the local market. A preliminary concept map for Pearson Plaza is provided in Figure 2-3.

FIGURE 2-3: PROPOSED PEARSON PLAZA CONCEPT PLAN

SOURCE: MCCOWAN & ASSOCIATES (NOV 2012)


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3 RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS

To determine the amount of additional retail/service commercial space warranted in the City of Elliot Lake, including space outside Pearson Plaza, urbanMetrics has employed two methodologies:

(1) Expenditure Approach – a residual expenditure market analysis has been conducted for both food store retail (“FSR”) and non-food store retail (“NFSR”) store categories.

Our residual market analysis provides an indication of the market opportunity for additional retail space in the Trade Area, and the potential impact on existing/designated and proposed retail areas in Elliot Lake, including Pearson Plaza, which is intended to have a first full year of operation in 2014.

(2) Per Capita Space Approach – a per capita space analysis has also been undertaken that addresses the market need for the range of service commercial uses.

3.1 FOOD STORE RETAIL (FSR) ANALYSIS

3.1.1 FOOD STORE EXPENDITURES

The calculation of the average per capita FSR expenditures available from Primary and Secondary Zone residents has been detailed in Figure 3-1. Figure 3-1 also indicates the average per capita FSR expenditure level for residents in the Province of Ontario, which is estimated at $2,188 for 2011. Expenditure data for Ontario is derived from Statistics Canada’s Retail Trade data (see Appendix D for details).

The provincial per capita expenditure estimate for 2011 has been used to determine the per capita expenditure levels of Trade Area residents by applying an expenditure regression equation developed by urbanMetrics based on the Statistics Canada Survey of Household Spending data (see Appendix D for details).

Real growth assumptions are based on historic data and expected future trends, which have be utilized to forecast the per capita FSR expenditure potential in the Primary and Secondary Zones. Based on historic real growth and future expectations, we have assumed an annual real growth rate of 0.25% (not compounded) for FSR expenditures. Future changes in expenditure levels which result from inflation are not recognized in our real growth assumptions and therefore future expenditure levels are expressed in terms of the 2011 value of the Canadian dollar.

The total FSR expenditure potential for Trade Area residents is calculated by multiplying the average per capita FSR expenditures by the corresponding population level in each Trade Area zone. Total FSR expenditures available from Trade Area residents are estimated at $37.5


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million for 2011. By 2031, the total FSR expenditure potential available from Trade Area residents is expected to increase to $41.4 million, which represents a growth of $3.9 million over the study period.

Total FSR expenditures in the Trade Area have also been distributed into two main store categories: supermarket/grocery and other convenience/specialty food stores. This distribution has been based on the provincial distribution. For the purposes of our analysis, only minimal changes in this distribution have been assumed over the study period.

FIGURE 3-1: FOOD STORE RETAIL (FSR) EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL

2011 Dollars 2011

Province of Ontario

Per Capita FSR Expenditure $ 2,188 (1

2011 Dollars 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031

Primary ZoneIncome Index to Province 75.80

FSR Expenditure Index to Province (2 97.60

Per Capita FSR Expenditure (3 $ 2,135 $ 2,151 $ 2,162 $ 2,188 $ 2,215 $ 2,242Population 11,790 12,130 12,220 12,480 12,690 12,750 TOTAL FSR POTENTIAL ($Millions) $ 25.2 $ 26.1 $ 26.4 $ 27.3 $ 28.1 $ 28.6

FSR - Supermarket Share (4 87.4% 87.5% 87.5% 87.5% 87.5% 87.5%

FSR - Grocery/Other Food Store Share (4 12.6% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100%

FSR - Supermarkets (4 $ 22.0 $ 22.8 $ 23.1 $ 23.9 $ 24.6 $ 25.0

FSR - Grocery/Other Food Store Share (4 $ 3.2 $ 3.3 $ 3.3 $ 3.4 $ 3.5 $ 3.6Total $ 25.2 $ 26.1 $ 26.4 $ 27.3 $ 28.1 $ 28.6

Secondary ZoneIncome Index to Province 84.00

FSR Expenditure Index to Province (2 98.40

Per Capita FSR Expenditure (3 $ 2,153 $ 2,169 $ 2,180 $ 2,207 $ 2,234 $ 2,261Population 5,720 5,820 5,780 5,690 5,580 5,660 TOTAL FSR POTENTIAL ($Millions) $ 12.3 $ 12.6 $ 12.6 $ 12.6 $ 12.5 $ 12.8

FSR - Supermarket Share (4 87.4% 87.5% 87.5% 87.5% 87.5% 87.5%

FSR - Grocery/Other Food Store Share (4 12.6% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% Total 100.0% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

FSR - Supermarkets (4 $ 10.8 $ 11.0 $ 11.0 $ 11.0 $ 10.9 $ 11.2

FSR - Grocery/Other Food Store Share (4 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.6Total $ 12.3 $ 12.6 $ 12.6 $ 12.6 $ 12.5 $ 12.8

TOTAL STUDY AREATOTAL FSR POTENTIAL ($Millions) $ 37.5 $ 38.7 $ 39.0 $ 39.9 $ 40.6 $ 41.4

TOTAL FSR - Supermarkets ($Millions) $ 32.8 $ 33.8 $ 34.1 $ 34.9 $ 35.5 $ 36.2Cumulative Growth $ 1.0 $ 1.3 $ 2.1 $ 2.7 $ 3.4

TOTAL FSR - Grocery/Other Food ($Millions) $ 4.7 $ 4.9 $ 4.9 $ 5.0 $ 5.1 $ 5.2Cumulative Growth $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.5

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.1)2)3)

4)

Based on Statistics Canada, Retail Trade (full year 2011 data). See Appendix D for more information.

Per capita Food Store Retail expenditures are forecast to increase by 0.25% per year (not compounded) in future years in real terms (i.e. excluding inflation). See Appendix D for more information.

urbanMetrics inc. estimate, based on Statistics Canada, Survey of Household Spending in 2009 (December 2010). See Appendix D for more information.

The shares for 2011 are urbanMetrics inc. estimates, based on the Provincial distribution.


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3.1.2 SUPERMARKET ANALYSIS

There are currently two supermarkets in Elliot Lake, including a 34,000 square foot No Frills, as well as a Foodland, which is currently operating at a temporary location in Elliot Lake. The temporary Foodland supermarket has been established in Collins Hall, using financial assistance from the Business Continuity Fund established by the Provincial government. The Foodland was located in Algo Centre Mall, and previously occupied approximately 27,000 square feet of retail space.

Figure 3-2 provides a detailed evaluation of the market opportunity for additional supermarket space in the Trade Area. The Primary Zone or Elliot Lake share has been forecast over the study period. This represents the expenditures available from Primary Zone residents that could be captured by a new supermarket in the local market. The remaining portion of these expenditures represent those made outside the Trade Area (e.g. Sudbury, Timmins.).

According to the results of our online consumer survey research in the Trade Area, the Primary Zone share is currently 94.5% in the Primary Zone, as detailed in Appendix E. Subsequently we have estimated the Primary Zone share in the Secondary Zone at approximately 75.0%. Assuming that the majority of residents in the Primary Zone would continue to patronize local supermarkets on the subject site, a 95% future Primary Zone Share has been forecast. For the Secondary Zone, we have assumed the Primary Zone share would remain constant at 75.0%, recognizing that residents of this area may also choose to patronize stores located outside the Trade Area.

Based on Primary Zone share assumptions, the total expenditures available from Trade Area residents for additional supermarket space equates to $28.9 million in 2011, increasing to $31.0 million in 2021, before increasing further to $32.2 million by 2031. The residual potential represents the additional expenditures from Trade Area residents that would be available in the future for new supermarket space in the local market.

Assuming an inflow of 10% from outside the Trade Area, over the study period some 2,400 to 6,000 square feet of additional supermarket space would be warranted at a sales performance levels ranging between $500 and $600 per square foot (expressed in 2011 dollars). It is important to recognize that we have already recognized the reconstruction of the Foodland supermarket. As a result, our warranted additional space calculations reflect the amount of additional supermarket space beyond the newly reconstructed 28,000 square foot Foodland.


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FIGURE 3-2: SUPERMARKET ANALYSIS

Recognizing that the reconstruction of the Foodland supermarket will only add approximately 1,000 square feet of supermarket space in the local market, there is expected to be no impacts on existing supermarkets in Elliot Lake. To account for the Foodland reconstruction we have recorded the previous store as having closed, and recorded the new store at 28,000 square feet, with a first full year of operation in 2014. Given that the new Foodland will replace the previous supermarket, there are not expected to be any significant impacts on the existing No Frills supermarket, which is currently performing at the high-end of the typical sales performance level for this store category.

SUPERMARKET ANALYSIS

2011 Dollars 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031

Primary ZoneSupermarket Expenditures ($Millions) $ 22.0 $ 22.8 $ 23.1 $ 23.9 $ 24.6 $ 25.0

Estimated Primary Zone Share % (1 94.5% 95.0% 95.0% 95.0% 95.0% 95.0%Estimated Primary Zone Share ($ Millions) $ 20.8 $ 21.7 $ 21.9 $ 22.7 $ 23.4 $ 23.8Residual Potential $ 0.9 $ 1.1 $ 1.9 $ 2.6 $ 3.0

Secondary ZoneSupermarket Expenditures ($Millions) $ 10.8 $ 11.0 $ 11.0 $ 11.0 $ 10.9 $ 11.2

Estimated Primary Zone Share % (1 75.0% 75.0% 75.0% 75.0% 75.0% 75.0%Estimated Primary Zone Share ($ Millions) $ 8.1 $ 8.3 $ 8.3 $ 8.3 $ 8.2 $ 8.4Residual $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.1 $ 0.3

TOTAL STUDY AREATotal Supermarket Expenditures ($Millions) $ 32.8 $ 33.8 $ 34.1 $ 34.9 $ 35.5 $ 36.2Total Estimated Primary Zone Share ($Millions) $ 28.9 $ 30.0 $ 30.2 $ 31.0 $ 31.6 $ 32.2Estimated Primary Zone Share % 88.1% 88.8% 88.6% 88.8% 89.0% 88.8%

Existing Sales from Study Area Residents ($Millions) $ 28.9 $ 28.9 $ 28.9 $ 28.9 $ 28.9 $ 28.9Residual Potential ($Millions) $ 1.1 $ 1.3 $ 2.1 $ 2.7 $ 3.3

$ 528

WARRANTED ADDITIONAL SPACE - Primary Zone(including inflow, excluding sales transfers)Additional Residual Potential Available $ 1.1 $ 1.3 $ 2.1 $ 2.7 $ 3.3

Plus Inflow Sales @ 10.0% (2 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4TOTAL ADDITIONAL SALES POTENTIAL AVAILABLE $ 1.2 $ 1.4 $ 2.3 $ 3.0 $ 3.6

WARRANTED ADDITIONAL SQUARE FEET (3

@ $500 per sq. ft. 2,400 2,900 4,700 6,000 7,200 @ $525 per sq. ft. 2,300 2,800 4,400 5,700 6,900 @ $550 per sq. ft. 2,200 2,600 4,200 5,500 6,600 @ $575 per sq. ft. 2,100 2,500 4,100 5,200 6,300 @ $600 per sq. ft. 2,000 2,400 3,900 5,000 6,000

2011 Dollars 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031PROPOSED SUPERMARKET SPACE - Primary ZoneFoodland (Reconstruction)Proposed Supermarket Space (square feet GLA) 28,000 28,000 28,000 28,000 28,000 Estimated Sales per Square Foot $ 500 $ 500 $ 500 $ 500 $ 500Total Estimated Sales ($Millions) $ 14.0 $ 14.0 $ 14.0 $ 14.0 $ 14.0

Less Inflow (%) (2 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5%Less Inflow ($Millions) $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.1Total Sales Volume From Study Area Residents ($Millions) $ 13.0 $ 13.0 $ 13.0 $ 13.0 $ 13.0

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. 1) urbanmetrics inc. estimates based on online consumer survey results.2) urbanMetrics estimate.3) Rounded to the nearest 100 square feet.

Existing Supermarkets (60,816 sq.ft.) Sales/Sq.Ft. Levels (Including average Inflow of 10%):


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3.2 NON-FOOD STORE RETAIL (NFSR) ANALYSIS

As part of our analysis, we also analyzed the potential for a number of non-food store retail (“NFSR”) tenants such as a drug store, a general merchandise store, and a range of other NFSR stores such as a florist, pet supply, electronics, telephone, and toy/game store.

3.2.1 NON-FOOD STORE RETAIL EXPENDITURES

The calculation of the average per capita and total NFSR expenditures available from Primary and Secondary Zone residents is shown in Figure 3-3. Figure 3-3 also indicates the average per capita NFSR expenditure level for the Province, which is estimated at $5,554 for 2011. These expenditures are distributed between each NFSR category based on the results of our online consumer survey research, as detailed in Appendix E. Expenditure data for Ontario has been derived from Statistics Canada’s Retail Trade data (see Appendix D).

The provincial per capita expenditure estimate for 2011 has been used to determine the per capita expenditure levels of Trade Area residents, by applying an expenditure regression equation developed by urbanMetrics based on the Statistics Canada Survey of Household Spending data (see Appendix D).

Based on historic data and expected future trends, we have assumed an annual real growth rate of 1.5% (not compounded) for NFSR expenditures. Future changes in expenditure levels which result from inflation are not recognized in our growth assumptions and therefore future expenditure levels are expressed in terms of the 2011 value of the Canadian dollar.

Trade Area residents’ total NFSR expenditure potential has been calculated by multiplying the average per capita NFSR expenditures by the corresponding population level in each Trade Area zone. The total NFSR expenditure potential available from Trade Area residents is estimated at $88.8 million in 2011 and is expected to increase to $121.4 million by 2031, which represents a growth of $32.6 million over the study period.

Total NFSR expenditures in the Trade Area have been distributed by various major NFSR store categories. The existing provincial distribution has been used to estimate the distribution by store type for the Primary and Secondary Zones.


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FIGURE 3-3: NFSR EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL

2011 Dollars 2011

Province of Ontario

Per Capita NFSR Expenditure $ 5,554 (1

2011 Dollars 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031

Primary ZoneIncome Index to Province 75.80

NFSR Expenditure Index to Province (2 90.30

Per Capita NFSR Expenditure (3 $ 5,015 $ 5,241 $ 5,391 $ 5,767 $ 6,143 $ 6,520Population 11,790 12,130 12,220 12,480 12,690 12,750 TOTAL NFSR POTENTIAL ($Millions) $ 59.1 $ 63.6 $ 65.9 $ 72.0 $ 78.0 $ 83.1

Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores (4 15.6% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0%

Clothing and Accessories Stores (4 8.4% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%

Furniture, Home Furnishings and Electronics Stores (4 11.1% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0%

Building and Outdoor Home Supplies Stores (4 12.3% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0%

General Merchandise (4 20.9% 31.0% 31.0% 31.0% 31.0% 31.0%

Department Stores (4 18.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

Miscellanous Retailers (4 5.4% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%

Automotive (4 8.3% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100%

Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores $ 9.2 $ 10.8 $ 11.2 $ 12.2 $ 13.3 $ 14.1Clothing and Accessories Stores $ 5.0 $ 6.4 $ 6.6 $ 7.2 $ 7.8 $ 8.3Furniture, Home Furnishings and Electronics Stores $ 6.6 $ 7.0 $ 7.2 $ 7.9 $ 8.6 $ 9.1Building and Outdoor Home Supplies Stores $ 7.3 $ 7.6 $ 7.9 $ 8.6 $ 9.4 $ 10.0General Merchandise $ 12.4 $ 19.7 $ 20.4 $ 22.3 $ 24.2 $ 25.8Department Stores $ 10.6 $ 3.2 $ 3.3 $ 3.6 $ 3.9 $ 4.2Miscellanous Retailers $ 3.2 $ 4.5 $ 4.6 $ 5.0 $ 5.5 $ 5.8Automotive $ 4.9 $ 4.5 $ 4.6 $ 5.0 $ 5.5 $ 5.8Total $ 59.2 $ 63.7 $ 65.8 $ 71.8 $ 78.2 $ 83.1

Secondary ZoneIncome Index to Province 84.00

NFSR Expenditure Index to Province (2 93.60

Per Capita NFSR Expenditure (3 $ 5,199 $ 5,433 $ 5,589 $ 5,979 $ 6,369 $ 6,759Population 5,720 5,820 5,780 5,690 5,580 5,660 TOTAL NFSR POTENTIAL ($Millions) $ 29.7 $ 31.6 $ 32.3 $ 34.0 $ 35.5 $ 38.3

Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores (4 15.6% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0%

Clothing and Accessories Stores (4 8.4% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%

Furniture, Home Furnishings and Electronics Stores (4 11.1% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0%

Building and Outdoor Home Supplies Stores (4 12.3% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0%

General Merchandise (4 20.9% 31.0% 31.0% 31.0% 31.0% 31.0%

Department Stores (4 18.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

Miscellanous Retailers (4 5.4% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%

Automotive (4 8.3% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100%

Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores $ 4.6 $ 5.4 $ 5.5 $ 5.8 $ 6.0 $ 6.5Clothing and Accessories Stores $ 2.5 $ 3.2 $ 3.2 $ 3.4 $ 3.6 $ 3.8Furniture, Home Furnishings and Electronics Stores $ 3.3 $ 3.5 $ 3.6 $ 3.7 $ 3.9 $ 4.2Building and Outdoor Home Supplies Stores $ 3.7 $ 3.8 $ 3.9 $ 4.1 $ 4.3 $ 4.6General Merchandise $ 6.2 $ 9.8 $ 10.0 $ 10.5 $ 11.0 $ 11.9Department Stores $ 5.3 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.9Miscellanous Retailers $ 1.6 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 $ 2.7

Automotive $ 2.5 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 $ 2.7 Total $ 29.7 $ 31.7 $ 32.4 $ 34.0 $ 35.6 $ 38.3


15

FIGURE 3-3: NFSR EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL continued…

TOTAL STUDY AREATOTAL NFSR POTENTIAL ($Millions) $ 88.8 $ 95.2 $ 98.2 $ 106.0 $ 113.5 $ 121.4

Cumulative Growth $ 6.4 $ 9.4 $ 17.2 $ 24.7 $ 32.6General Merchandise Store Share ($Millions) $ 18.6 $ 29.5 $ 30.4 $ 32.8 $ 35.2 $ 37.7

General Merchandise Store Share (%) 20.9% 31.0% 31.0% 30.9% 31.0% 31.1%Cumulative Growth $ 10.9 $ 0.9 $ 2.4 $ 2.4 $ 2.5

Department Store Share ($Millions) $ 15.9 $ 4.8 $ 4.9 $ 5.3 $ 5.7 $ 6.1Department Store Share (%) 17.9% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%Cumulative Growth -$11.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4

Apparel and Accessories Store Share ($Millions) $ 7.5 $ 9.6 $ 9.8 $ 10.6 $ 11.4 $ 12.1Apparel and Accessories Store Share (%) 8.4% 10.1% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%Cumulative Growth $ 2.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.7

Furniture, Home Furnishings and Electronics Store Share ($Millions) $ 9.9 $ 10.5 $ 10.8 $ 11.6 $ 12.5 $ 13.3Furniture, Home Furnishings and Electronics Store Share (%) 11.1% 11.0% 11.0% 10.9% 11.0% 11.0%Cumulative Growth $ 0.6 $ 0.3 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 0.8

Miscellaneous Retailers Share ($Millions) $ 4.8 $ 6.7 $ 6.9 $ 7.4 $ 8.0 $ 8.5Other Miscellaneous Retailers Share (%) 5.4% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%Cumulative Growth $ 1.9 $ 0.2 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.5

Health and Personal Care Store Share ($Millions) $ 13.8 $ 16.2 $ 16.7 $ 18.0 $ 19.3 $ 20.6Health and Personal Care Store Share (%) 15.5% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0%Cumulative Growth $ 2.4 $ 0.5 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3

Building and Outdoor Home Supply Store Share ($Millions) $ 11.0 $ 11.4 $ 11.8 $ 12.7 $ 13.7 $ 14.6Building and Outdoor Home Supply Store Share (%) 12.4% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.1% 12.0%Cumulative Growth $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 0.9

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.1)2)3)

4)

urbanMetrics inc. estimate, based on Statistics Canada, Survey of Household Spending in 2009 (December 2010). See Appendix D for more information.Based on Statistics Canada, Retail Trade (full year 2011 data). See Appendix D for more information.

The shares for 2011 are urbanMetrics inc. estimates, based on the Provincial distribution.

Per capita Non-Food Store Retail expenditures are forecast to increase by 1.5% per year (not compounded) in future years in real terms (i.e. excluding inflation). See Appendix D for more information.


16

3.2.2 BUILDING AND OUTDOOR HOME SUPPLY STORE ANALYSIS

Figure 3-4 provides a detailed evaluation of the market opportunity for building and outdoor home supply space in the Primary Zone.

Based on the results of our online consumer survey, the Primary Zone share in the Primary Zone is 88.7%, as detailed in Appendix E. We have estimated the Primary Zone share in the Secondary Zone at 60.0%. With the introduction of building and outdoor home supplies space in the Trade Area, we have estimated that the future Primary Zone share for Trade Area residents would increase. In future years, the Primary Zone share has been estimated at 90% for Primary Zone residents; with a 65% Primary Zone share for Secondary Zone residents. Based on the calculations in Figure 3-4, the Primary Zone share of building and outdoor home supply expenditures derived from all Trade Area residents’ amounts to $11.4 million in 2014; increasing to $14.6 million by 2031 (expressed in 2011 dollars).

Residual potential represents the additional expenditures available from Trade Area residents in the future for building and outdoor home supply space in the Primary Zone. Including an additional 15% inflow from outside the Trade Area, we have estimated the total additional sales potential available for Primary Zone building and outdoor home supply stores would amount to $0.7 million in 2014, increasing to $3.9 million by 2031.

If we allocate the available sales potential and assume some 5,000 square feet of building and outdoor home supply space is constructed in the Primary Zone, there would still be residual market demand by the end of the study period if the new space operates at an average sales performance between $250 and to $350 per square foot (expressed in 2011 dollars). These sales performance levels are considered reasonable based on the average sales performance level for this store category in Ontario.

Recognizing the majority of sales support for building and outdoor home supply space in the Primary Zone would be derived from future population and expenditure growth in the local market, any impacts on existing building and outdoor home supply stores in Elliot Lake are expected to be negligible. In Figure 3-4 we have provided an estimate of the potential sales transfers that would occur from existing building and outdoor home supply stores. Based on our estimates, only minimal transfers would be required over the study period, and no sales transfers would be required after 2016. A detailed analysis of the impact of the addition of building and outdoor home supply store space on existing building and outdoor home supply stores in the Primary Zone is provided in Appendix F.


17

FIGURE 3-4: BUILDING AND OUTDOOR HOME SUPPLY STORE ANALYSIS

2011 Dollars 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031

Primary ZoneHome Improvement ($Millions) $ 7.3 $ 7.6 $ 7.9 $ 8.6 $ 9.4 $ 10.0


Secondary ZoneHome Improvement ($Millions) $ 3.7 $ 3.8 $ 3.9 $ 4.1 $ 4.3 $ 4.6


TOTAL STUDY AREATotal Home Improvement Expenditures ($Millions) $ 11.0 $ 11.4 $ 11.8 $ 12.7 $ 13.7 $ 14.6Total Estimated Primary Zone Share ($Millions) $ 8.7 $ 9.3 $ 9.6 $ 10.4 $ 11.3 $ 12.0Estimated Primary Zone Share % 79.1% 81.6% 81.4% 81.9% 82.5% 82.1%


$ 342

WARRANTED ADDITIONAL Home Improvement SPACE - Primary Zone(including inflow, excluding sales transfers)Additional Residual Potential Available $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.7 $ 2.6 $ 3.3




2011 Dollars 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031PROPOSED Home Improvement SPACE - Primary ZoneElliot Lake - General Location(s)Proposed Space (square feet GLA) 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 Estimated Sales per Square Foot $ 250 $ 262 $ 291 $ 321 $ 350Total Estimated Sales ($Millions) $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.8

Less Inflow (%) (2 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%Less Inflow ($Millions) $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3Total Sales Volume From Study Area Residents ($Millions) $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.5

PROPOSED NEW SPACE SALES TRANSFER OR RESIDUAL DEMANDTotal Proposed Space (sq. ft.) 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 Total Sales Volume ($ Millions) $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.8Total Sales Volume Required from Study Area Residents (excludes inflow) $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.5Total Sales Volume Available from Study Area Residents (excludes inflow) $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.7 $ 2.6 $ 3.3Sales Transfer Required From Existing Stores (-)/Residual Market Demand (+) -$0.5 -$0.2 $ 0.4 $ 1.2 $ 1.8

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. 1) urbanmetrics inc., based on online consumer survey results, future years based on urbanMetrics estimates.2) urbanMetrics estimate.3) Rounded to the nearest 100 square feet.

Existing Home Improvement Stores(29,931 sq.ft.) Sales/Sq.Ft. Levels (Including average Inflow of 15%):


18

3.2.3 PHARMACY AND PERSONAL CARE STORE ANALYSIS

Figure 3-5 provides a detailed evaluation of the market opportunity for pharmacy and personal care space in the Primary Zone.

Based on the results of our online consumer survey, the Primary Zone share in the Primary Zone is 95.2%, as detailed in Appendix E. We have estimated the Primary Zone share in the Secondary Zone at 75.0%. For the pharmacy and personal care category, we have estimated that the future Primary Zone share for Trade Area residents would remain relatively constant. In future years, the Primary Zone share has been estimated at 95.0% for Primary Zone residents; with a 75.0% Primary Zone share for Secondary Zone residents. Based on the calculations in Figure 3-5, the Primary Zone share of pharmacy and personal care expenditures derived from all Trade Area residents’ amounts to $16.2 million in 2014; increasing to $20.6 million by 2031 (expressed in 2011 dollars).

Residual potential represents the additional expenditures available from Trade Area residents in future years for pharmacy and personal care space in the Primary Zone. Including an additional 10% inflow from outside the Trade Area, we have estimated the total additional sales potential available for Primary Zone pharmacy and personal care stores would amount to $2.3 million in 2014, increasing to $6.6 million by 2031.

If we allocate the available sales potential and assume some 2,000 square feet of pharmacy and personal care space is constructed as part of Pearson Plaza, performing at an average sales performance between $600 and $700 per square foot (expressed in 2011 dollars), there would be residual market demand to support additional pharmacy and personal care space elsewhere in Elliot Lake. These sales performance levels are considered reasonable based on the average sales performance level for this store category in Ontario. After considering the 2,000 square feet of pharmacy and personal care space proposed as part of Pearson Plaza, there would still be residual market demand, which would warrant between 1,700 and 7,800 square feet of additional pharmacy and personal care space in the Trade Area over the study period.

Recognizing the majority of sales support for pharmacy and personal care space on the subject site would be derived from future population and expenditure growth in the Primary Zone, there are expected to be no impacts on existing pharmacy and personal care stores in Elliot Lake. In Figure 3-5 we have provided an estimate of the residual market demand for additional pharmacy and personal care space in the Primary Zone. Based on our estimates, no sales transfers would be required during the study period. In fact, our analysis indicates that there would be market opportunity for additional pharmacy and personal care space in Elliot Lake. A detailed analysis of the impact of the addition of pharmacy and personal care store space on existing pharmacy and personal care stores is provided in Appendix F.


19

FIGURE 3-5: PHARMACY AND PERSONAL CARE STORE ANALYSIS

2011 Dollars 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031

Primary ZonePharmacies and Personal Care ($Millions) $ 9.2 $ 10.8 $ 11.2 $ 12.2 $ 13.3 $ 14.1


Secondary ZonePharmacies and Personal Care ($Millions) $ 4.6 $ 5.4 $ 5.5 $ 5.8 $ 6.0 $ 6.5


TOTAL STUDY AREATotal Pharmacies and Personal Care ($Millions) $ 13.8 $ 16.2 $ 16.7 $ 18.0 $ 19.3 $ 20.6Total Estimated Primary Zone Share ($Millions) $ 12.3 $ 14.4 $ 14.7 $ 16.0 $ 17.1 $ 18.3Estimated Primary Zone Share % 89.1% 88.9% 88.0% 88.9% 88.6% 88.7%


$ 377

WARRANTED ADDITIONAL Pharmacies and Personal Care SPACE - Primary Zone(including inflow, excluding sales transfers)Additional Residual Potential Available $ 2.1 $ 2.4 $ 3.7 $ 4.8 $ 6.0




2011 Dollars 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031PROPOSED PHARMACIES AND PERSONAL CARE SPACE - PRIMARY ZONEPearson PlazaProposed Space (square feet GLA) 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Estimated Sales per Square Foot $ 600 $ 612 $ 641 $ 671 $ 700Total Estimated Sales ($Millions) $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.4


PROPOSED NEW SPACE SALES TRANSFER OR RESIDUAL DEMANDTotal Proposed Pharmacies and Personal Care Space (sq. ft.) 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Total Sales Volume ($ Millions) $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.4Total Sales Volume Required from Study Area Residents (excludes inflow) $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.3Total Sales Volume Available from Study Area Residents (excludes inflow) $ 2.1 $ 2.4 $ 3.7 $ 4.8 $ 6.0Sales Transfer Required From Existing Stores (-)/Residual Market Demand (+) $ 1.0 $ 1.3 $ 2.5 $ 3.6 $ 4.7

Warranted Additional Space Elliot Lake - General Location(s) (excludes inflow)@ $600 per sq. ft. 1,700 2,200 4,200 6,000 7,800 @ $625 per sq. ft. 1,600 2,100 4,000 5,800 7,500 @ $650 per sq. ft. 1,500 2,000 3,800 5,500 7,200 @ $675 per sq. ft. 1,500 1,900 3,700 5,300 6,900 @ $700 per sq. ft. 1,400 1,900 3,600 5,100 6,700


Existing Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores (36,230 sq.ft.) Sales/Sq.Ft. Levels (Including average Inflow of 10%):


20

3.2.4 CLOTHING AND ACCESSORIES STORE ANALYSIS

Figure 3-6 provides a detailed evaluation of the market opportunity for clothing and accessories space in the Primary Zone.

Based on the results of our online consumer survey, the Primary Zone share in the Primary Zone is 60.0%, as detailed in Appendix E. We have also estimated the Primary Zone share in the Secondary Zone at 60.0%. With the introduction of clothing and accessories space in the Trade Area, we have estimated that the future Primary Zone share for Trade Area residents would increase. In future years, the Primary Zone share has been estimated at 70% for Primary Zone residents; with a 65% Primary Zone share for Secondary Zone residents. Based on the calculations in Figure 3-6, the Primary Zone share of clothing and accessories expenditures derived from all Trade Area residents’ amounts to $9.6 million in 2014, increasing to $12.1 million by 2031 (expressed in 2011 dollars).

Residual potential represents the additional expenditures available from Trade Area residents in the future for clothing and accessories space in the Primary Zone. Including an additional 10% inflow from outside the Trade Area, we have estimated the total additional sales potential available for Primary Zone clothing and accessories stores would amount to $2.3 million in 2014, increasing to $4.2 million by 2031.

If we allocate the available sales potential and assume some 8,600 square feet of clothing and accessories space is constructed as part of Pearson Plaza, performing at an average sales performance ranging between $300 and $400 per square foot (expressed in 2011 dollars), there would be residual market demand to support additional clothing and accessories space elsewhere in Elliot Lake. These sales performance levels are considered reasonable based on the average sales performance level for this store category in Ontario. After considering the 8,600 square feet of clothing and accessories space proposed as part of Pearson Plaza, there would still be residual market demand, which would warrant up to approximately 8,600 square feet of additional clothing and accessories space in the Trade Area by 2031.

Recognizing the majority of sales support for clothing and accessories space on the subject site would be derived from future population and expenditure growth in the Primary Zone, any impacts on existing clothing and accessories stores in Elliot Lake are expected to be negligible. In fact, no sales transfers would be required to support the proposed clothing and accessories store space after 2016. In Figure 3-6 we have provided an estimate of the potential sales transfers that would occur from existing clothing and accessories stores. A detailed analysis of the impact of the addition of clothing and accessories store space on existing clothing and accessories stores is provided in Appendix F.


21

FIGURE 3-6: CLOTHING AND ACCESSORIES STORE ANALYSIS

2011 Dollars 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031

Primary ZoneClothing & Accessories ($Millions) $ 5.0 $ 6.4 $ 6.6 $ 7.2 $ 7.8 $ 8.3


Secondary ZoneClothing & Accessories ($Millions) $ 2.5 $ 3.2 $ 3.2 $ 3.4 $ 3.6 $ 3.8


Total Estimated Primary Zone Share ($Millions)Total Clothing & Accessories ($M) $ 7.5 $ 9.6 $ 9.8 $ 10.6 $ 11.4 $ 12.1Total Estimated Primary Zone Share ($Millions) $ 4.5 $ 6.6 $ 6.7 $ 7.2 $ 7.8 $ 8.3Estimated Primary Zone Share % 60.0% 68.8% 68.4% 67.9% 68.4% 68.4% Existing Sales from Study Area Residents ($Millions) $ 4.5 $ 4.5 $ 4.5 $ 4.5 $ 4.5 $ 4.5Residual Potential ($Millions) $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.7 $ 3.3 $ 3.8

$ 860

WARRANTED ADDITIONAL Clothing & Accessories SPACE - Primary Zone(including inflow, excluding sales transfers)Additional Residual Potential Available $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.7 $ 3.3 $ 3.8




2011 Dollars 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031PROPOSED CLOTHING & ACCESSORIES SPACE - PRIMARY ZONEPearson PlazaProposed Space (square feet GLA) 8,600 8,600 8,600 8,600 8,600 Estimated Sales per Square Foot $ 300 $ 312 $ 341 $ 371 $ 400Total Estimated Sales ($Millions) $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.9 $ 3.2 $ 3.4


PROPOSED NEW SPACE SALES TRANSFER OR RESIDUAL DEMANDTotal Proposed Clothing & Accessories Space (sq. ft.) 8,600 8,600 8,600 8,600 8,600 Total Sales Volume ($ Millions) $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.9 $ 3.2 $ 3.4Total Sales Volume Required from Study Area Residents (excludes inflow) $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.6 $ 2.9 $ 3.1Total Sales Volume Available from Study Area Residents (excludes inflow) $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.7 $ 3.3 $ 3.8Sales Transfer Required From Existing Stores (-)/Residual Market Demand (+) -$0.2 -$0.2 $ 0.1 $ 0.4 $ 0.7

Warranted Additional Space Elliot Lake - General Location(s) (excluding inflow)@ $300 per sq. ft. 700- 700- 300 1,300 2,300 @ $325 per sq. ft. 600- 600- 300 1,200 2,100 @ $350 per sq. ft. 600- 600- 300 1,100 1,900 @ $375 per sq. ft. 500- 500- 300 1,100 1,800 @ $400 per sq. ft. 500- 500- 300 1,000 1,700


Existing Clothing & Accessories Stores (5813 sq.ft.) Sales/Sq.Ft. Levels (Including average Inflow of 10%):


22

3.2.5 FURNITURE, HOME FURNISHINGS AND ELECTRONICS STORE ANALYSIS

Figure 3-7 provides a detailed evaluation of the market opportunity for home furnishing and electronics space in the Primary Zone.

Based on the results of our online consumer survey, the Primary Zone share in the Primary Zone is 64.7%, as detailed in Appendix E. We have estimated the Primary Zone share in the Secondary Zone at 60.0%. With the introduction of home furnishing and electronics space as part of Pearson Plaza, we have estimated that the future Primary Zone share for Primary Zone residents would increase in future years. In the Secondary Zone, the Primary Zone share is expected to remain constant during the study period. In future years, the Primary Zone share has been estimated at 65% for Primary Zone residents. Based on the calculations in Figure 3-7, the Primary Zone share of home furnishing and electronics expenditures derived from all Trade Area residents’ amounts to $10.5 million in 2014, increasing to $13.3 million by 2031 (expressed in 2011 dollars).

Residual potential represents the additional expenditures available from Trade Area residents in the future for home furnishing and electronics space in the Primary Zone. Including an additional 15% inflow from outside the Trade Area, we have estimated the total additional sales potential available for Primary Zone home furnishing and electronics stores would amount to $0.5 million in 2014, increasing to $2.5 million by 2031.

If we allocate the available sales potential and assume some 2,500 square feet of home furnishing and electronics space is constructed as part of Pearson Plaza, performing at an average sales performance level of $350 per square foot (expressed in 2011 dollars), there would still be residual market demand to support additional clothing and accessories space elsewhere in Elliot Lake in future years. These sales performance levels are considered reasonable based on the average sales performance level for this store category in Ontario. After considering the 2,500 square feet of home furnishing and electronics space proposed as part of Pearson Plaza, there would still be residual market demand, which would warrant up to approximately 3,800 square feet of additional clothing and accessories space in the Trade Area by 2031.

Recognizing the majority of sales support for home furnishing and electronics space in Pearson Plaza would be derived from future population and expenditure growth in the Primary Zone, there are only expected to be minimal sales impacts on existing home furnishing and electronics stores in Elliot Lake. There are expected to some sales transfers from existing stores when the shopping centre initially opens, which will no longer be required after 2016. In Figure 3-7 we have provided an estimate of the potential sales transfers that would occur from existing home furnishing and electronics stores. A detailed analysis of the impact of additional home furnishing and electronics store space on existing home furnishing and electronics stores is provided in Appendix F.


23

FIGURE 3-7: FURNITURE, HOME FURNISHINGS AND ELECTRONICS STORE ANALYSIS

2011 Dollars 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031

Primary ZoneHome Furnishings ($Millions) $ 6.6 $ 7.0 $ 7.2 $ 7.9 $ 8.6 $ 9.1


Secondary ZoneHome Furnishings ($Millions) $ 3.3 $ 3.5 $ 3.6 $ 3.7 $ 3.9 $ 4.2


Total Estimated Primary Zone Share ($Millions)Total Home Furnishings ($M) $ 9.9 $ 10.5 $ 10.8 $ 11.6 $ 12.5 $ 13.3Total Estimated Primary Zone Share ($Millions) $ 6.3 $ 6.7 $ 6.9 $ 7.3 $ 7.9 $ 8.4Estimated Primary Zone Share % 63.6% 63.8% 63.9% 62.9% 63.2% 63.4% Existing Sales from Study Area Residents ($Millions) $ 6.3 $ 6.3 $ 6.3 $ 6.3 $ 6.3 $ 6.3Residual Potential ($Millions) $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 1.0 $ 1.6 $ 2.1

$ 297

WARRANTED ADDITIONAL Home Furnishings SPACE - Primary Zone(including inflow, excluding sales transfers)Additional Residual Potential Available $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 1.0 $ 1.6 $ 2.1




2011 Dollars 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031PROPOSED HOME FURNISHINGS SPACE - PRIMARY ZONEPearson PlazaProposed Space (square feet GLA) 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 Estimated Sales per Square Foot $ 350 $ 350 $ 350 $ 350 $ 350Total Estimated Sales ($Millions) $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9


PROPOSED NEW SPACE SALES TRANSFER OR RESIDUAL DEMANDTotal Proposed Home Furnishings Space (sq. ft.) 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 Total Sales Volume ($ Millions) $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9Total Sales Volume Required from Study Area Residents (excludes inflow) $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8Total Sales Volume Available from Study Area Residents (excludes inflow) $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 1.0 $ 1.6 $ 2.1Sales Transfer Required From Existing Stores (-)/Residual Market Demand (+) -$0.4 -$0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.8 $ 1.3

Warranted Additional Space Elliot Lake - General Location(s) (excluding inflow)@ $350 per sq. ft. 1,100- 600- 600 2,300 3,800 @ $375 per sq. ft. 1,100- 500- 500 2,100 3,600 @ $400 per sq. ft. 1,000- 500- 500 2,000 3,300 @ $425 per sq. ft. 900- 500- 500 1,900 3,100 @ $450 per sq. ft. 900- 400- 400 1,800 3,000


Existing Home Furnishings Stores (24,944 sq.ft.) Sales/Sq.Ft. Levels (Including average Inflow of 15%):


24

3.2.6 GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORE ANALYSIS

Figure 3-8 provides a detailed evaluation of the market opportunity for general merchandise space in the Primary Zone.

Based on the results of our online consumer survey, the Primary Zone share in the Primary Zone is 85.3%, as detailed in Appendix E. We have estimated the Primary Zone share in the Secondary Zone at 80.0%. In future years, the Primary Zone share in the Trade Area is expected to remain relatively constant. Based on the calculations in Figure 3-8, the Primary Zone share of general merchandise expenditures derived from all Trade Area residents’ amounts to $29.5 million in 2014, increasing to $37.7 million by 2031 (expressed in 2011 dollars).

Residual potential represents the additional expenditures available from Trade Area residents in the future for general merchandise space in the Primary Zone. Including an additional 15% inflow from outside the Trade Area, we have estimated the total additional sales potential available for Primary Zone general merchandise stores would amount to $10.5 million in 2014, increasing to $18.6 million by 2031.

If we allocate the available sales potential and assume some 25,600 square feet of general merchandise space is constructed as part of Pearson Plaza, performing at an average sales performance level ranging between $400 and $500 per square foot (expressed in 2011 dollars), there would be residual market demand to support additional general merchandise space elsewhere in Elliot Lake in future years. These sales performance levels are considered reasonable based on the average sales performance level for this store category in Ontario. After considering the 25,600 square feet of general merchandise space proposed as part of Pearson Plaza, there would still be residual market demand, which would warrant up to approximately 12,400 square feet of additional general merchandise space in the Trade Area by 2031.

Recognizing the majority of sales support for general merchandise space in Pearson Plaza would be derived from future population and expenditure growth in the Primary Zone, there is expected to be no impacts on existing general merchandise stores in Elliot Lake. In Figure 3-8 we have provided an estimate of the residual market demand for additional general merchandise space in the Primary Zone. A detailed analysis of the impact of additional general merchandise store space on existing general merchandise stores is provided in Appendix F.


25

FIGURE 3-8: GENERAL MERHCNADISE STORE ANALYSIS

GENERAL MERCHANDISE ANALYSIS

2011 Dollars 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031

Primary ZoneGeneral Merchandise ($Millions) $ 12.4 $ 19.7 $ 20.4 $ 22.3 $ 24.2 $ 25.8


Secondary ZoneGeneral Merchandise ($Millions) $ 6.2 $ 9.8 $ 10.0 $ 10.5 $ 11.0 $ 11.9


WARRANTED ADDITIONAL Home Furnishings SPACE - Primary Zone(including inflow, excluding sales transfers)Total General Merchandise ($Millions) $ 18.6 $ 29.5 $ 30.4 $ 32.8 $ 35.2 $ 37.7Total Estimated Primary Zone Share ($Millions) $ 15.6 $ 24.5 $ 25.3 $ 27.4 $ 29.4 $ 31.5Estimated Primary Zone Share % 83.9% 83.1% 83.2% 83.5% 83.5% 83.4% Existing Sales from Study Area Residents ($Millions) $ 15.6 $ 15.6 $ 15.6 $ 15.6 $ 15.6 $ 15.6Residual Potential ($Millions) $ 8.9 $ 9.7 $ 11.8 $ 13.8 $ 15.9

$ 513

WARRANTED ADDITIONAL General Merchandise SPACE - Primary Zone(including inflow, excluding sales transfers)Additional Residual Potential Available $ 8.9 $ 9.7 $ 11.8 $ 13.8 $ 15.9




2011 Dollars 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031PROPOSED GENERAL MERCHANDISE SPACE - PRIMARY ZONEPearson PlazaProposed Space (square feet GLA) 25,600 25,600 25,600 25,600 25,600 Estimated Sales per Square Foot $ 400 $ 412 $ 441 $ 471 $ 500Total Estimated Sales ($Millions) $ 10.2 $ 10.5 $ 11.3 $ 12.0 $ 12.8


PROPOSED NEW SPACE SALES TRANSFER OR RESIDUAL DEMANDTotal Proposed General Merchandise Space (sq. ft.) 25,600 25,600 25,600 25,600 25,600 Total Sales Volume ($ Millions) $ 10.2 $ 10.5 $ 11.3 $ 12.0 $ 12.8Total Sales Volume Required from Study Area Residents (excludes inflow) $ 8.7 $ 8.9 $ 9.6 $ 10.2 $ 10.9Total Sales Volume Available from Study Area Residents (excludes inflow) $ 8.9 $ 9.7 $ 11.8 $ 13.8 $ 15.9Sales Transfer Required From Existing Stores (-)/Residual Market Demand (+) $ 0.2 $ 0.8 $ 2.2 $ 3.6 $ 5.0

Warranted Additional Space Elliot Lake - General Location(s) (excluding inflow)@ $400 per sq. ft. 500 2,000 5,500 9,000 12,400 @ $425 per sq. ft. 500 1,900 5,200 8,500 11,600 @ $450 per sq. ft. 400 1,800 4,900 8,000 11,000 @ $475 per sq. ft. 400 1,700 4,600 7,600 10,400 @ $500 per sq. ft. 400 1,600 4,400 7,200 9,900


Existing General Merchandise Stores (35,767 sq.ft.) Sales/Sq.Ft. Levels (Including average Inflow of


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3.2.7 MISCELLANEOUS RETAIL STOREANALYSIS

Figure 3-9 provides a detailed evaluation of the market opportunity for miscellaneous retail space in the Primary Zone.

Based on the results of our online consumer survey, the Primary Zone share in the Primary Zone is 66.4%, as detailed in Appendix E. We have estimated the Primary Zone share in the Secondary Zone at 60.0%. With the introduction of miscellaneous retail space as part of Pearson Plaza, we have estimated that the future Primary Zone share for Trade Area residents would increase. In future years, the Primary Zone share has been estimated at 70% for Primary Zone residents and 65% for Secondary Zone residents. Based on the calculations in Figure 3-9, the Primary Zone share of miscellaneous retail expenditures derived from all Trade Area residents’ amounts to $6.7 million in 2014, increasing to $8.5 million by 2031 (expressed in 2011 dollars).

Residual potential represents the additional expenditures available from Trade Area residents in the future for miscellaneous retail space in the Primary Zone. Including an additional 10% inflow from outside the Trade Area, we have estimated the total additional sales potential available for Primary Zone miscellaneous retail stores would amount to $1.7 million in 2014, increasing to $3.0 million by 2031.

If we allocate the available sales potential and assume some 5,700 square feet of miscellaneous retail space is constructed as part of Pearson Plaza, performing at an average sales performance level between $200 and $350 per square foot (expressed in 2011 dollars), there would be residual market demand to support additional miscellaneous retail space elsewhere in Elliot Lake in future years. These sales performance levels are considered reasonable based on the average sales performance level for this store category in Ontario. After considering the 5,700 square feet of miscellaneous retail space proposed as part of Pearson Plaza, there would still be residual market demand, which would warrant up to approximately 4,600 square feet of additional miscellaneous retail space in the Trade Area by 2031.

Recognizing the majority of sales support for miscellaneous retail space in Pearson Plaza would be derived from future population and expenditure growth in the Primary Zone, any impacts on existing miscellaneous retail stores in Elliot Lake are expected to be negligible. There are expected to no sales transfers from existing competitive stores in order to support the miscellaneous retail space proposed in Elliot Lake. In Figure 3-9 we have provided an estimate of the residual market demand for additional miscellaneous retail space in the Primary Zone. A detailed analysis of the impact of additional miscellaneous retail space on existing miscellaneous retail stores is provided in Appendix F.


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FIGURE 3-9: MISCELLANEOUS RETAIL STORE ANALYSIS

MISCELLANEOUS RETAIL ANALYSIS (1

2011 Dollars 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031

Primary ZoneMiscellaneous Retail ($Millions) $ 3.2 $ 4.5 $ 4.6 $ 5.0 $ 5.5 $ 5.8


Secondary ZoneMiscellaneous Retail ($Millions) $ 1.6 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 $ 2.7


Estimated Primary Zone Share %Total Miscellaneous Retail ($Millions) $ 4.8 $ 6.7 $ 6.9 $ 7.4 $ 8.0 $ 8.5Total Estimated Primary Zone Share ($Millions) $ 3.1 $ 4.6 $ 4.7 $ 5.1 $ 5.5 $ 5.8Estimated Primary Zone Share % 64.6% 68.7% 68.1% 68.9% 68.8% 68.4% Existing Sales from Study Area Residents ($Millions) $ 3.1 $ 3.1 $ 3.1 $ 3.1 $ 3.1 $ 3.1Residual Potential ($Millions) $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 2.0 $ 2.4 $ 2.7

$ 358

WARRANTED ADDITIONAL Miscellaneous SPACE - Primary Zone (including inflow, excluding sales transfers)Additional Residual Potential Available $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 2.0 $ 2.4 $ 2.7




2011 Dollars 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031PROPOSED MISCELLANEOUS RETAIL SPACE - PRIMARY ZONEPearson PlazaProposed Space (square feet GLA) 5,700 5,700 5,700 5,700 5,700 Estimated Sales per Square Foot $ 200 $ 218 $ 262 $ 306 $ 350Total Estimated Sales ($Millions) $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.5 $ 1.7 $ 2.0


PROPOSED NEW SPACE SALES TRANSFER OR RESIDUAL DEMANDTotal Proposed Miscellaneous Space (sq. ft.) 5,700 5,700 5,700 5,700 5,700 Total Sales Volume ($ Millions) $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.5 $ 1.7 $ 2.0Total Sales Volume Required from Study Area Residents (excludes inflow) $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.8Total Sales Volume Available from Study Area Residents (excludes inflow) $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 2.0 $ 2.4 $ 2.7Sales Transfer Required From Existing Stores (-)/Residual Market Demand (+) $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 0.9

Warranted Additional Space Elliot Lake - General Location(s) (excluding inflow)@ $200 per sq. ft. 2,500 2,500 3,000 4,500 4,600 @ $275 per sq. ft. 1,800 1,800 2,200 3,300 3,300 @ $300 per sq. ft. 1,700 1,700 2,000 3,000 3,100 @ $325 per sq. ft. 1,500 1,500 1,800 2,800 2,800 @ $350 per sq. ft. 1,400 1,400 1,700 2,600 2,600

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. 1) Miscellaneous retail includes sporting goods, hobby, music, book and toy stores, in addition to florists, office supply, gift/novelty, used merchandise and pet stores.2) urbanmetrics inc., based on online consumer survey results, future years based on urbanMetrics estimates.3) urbanMetrics estimate.4) Rounded to the nearest 100 square feet.

Existing Miscellaneous Stores (9,625 sq.ft.) Sales/Sq.Ft. Levels (Including average Inflow of 10%):


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3.3 PER CAPITA SPACE ANALYSIS

A per capita space analysis has been used to determine the amount of additional service space warranted in the Trade Area. In the following subsection, we have summarized our methodology and assumptions utilized in our per capita space analysis, which is detailed in Figure 3-10.

Based on our experience in other similar sized Ontario markets, as well as our review of the existing retail/service supply situation in Elliot Lake we have estimated Trade Area residents’ Required Square Feet Per Capita for each service category. In this analysis we have utilized the Primary Zone (City of Elliot Lake) population to determine the amount of warranted additional space.

The space per capita ratios are applied to the anticipated Primary Zone population projections to provide an estimate of the Total Warranted Service Space required by Trade Area residents. Assuming approximately 17.5 square feet per capita, Primary Zone residents could support approximately 204,200 square feet of services space square feet of retail and service space. The Total Warranted Services Space in the Primary Zone is expected to increase to 220,800 by 2031.

The target local shares, or the percentage of space that could be supported locally by Elliot Lake residents, have been estimated for a range of service establishments. Recognizing the relatively isolated location of Elliot Lake, we have used a 90% local capture rate, and a 10% inflow factor to determine the Total Warranted Services Space.

Based on the existing inventory, there is approxaimtely 175,700 square feet of existing services space in the Primary Zone, which translates to 14.9 square feet of existing services space per capita. In order to determine the Warranted Additional Services Space, the existing inventory has been subtracted from the Total Warranted Services Space. As a result, there would be approximately 41,100 square feet of warranted additional services space in 2014; increasing to 53,900 by 2031.


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FIGURE 3-10: PER CAPITA SERVICES SPACE ANALYSIS – ELLIOT LAKE

Per Capital Services Analysis - ROUNDED

2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031Population - City of Elliot Lake 11,790 12,130 12,220 12,480 12,690 12,750 11,790 12,130 12,220 12,480 12,690 12,750

Food Services and Drinking Places

3.540,900 42,000 42,300 43,200 44,000 44,200 39,000 3.3 1,900 3,000 3,300 4,200 5,000 5,200

Cultural, Entertainment and Recreation

2.529,200 30,000 30,200 30,900 31,400 31,600 22,500 1.9 6,700 7,500 7,700 8,400 8,900 9,100

Finance and Insurance 2.023,300 24,000 24,200 24,700 25,100 25,200 27,900 2.4 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Health Care Services 4.046,700 48,000 48,400 49,400 50,300 50,500 35,300 3.0 11,400 12,700 13,100 14,100 15,000 15,200

Insurance and Real Estate 1.011,700 12,000 12,100 12,400 12,600 12,600 5,400 0.5 6,300 6,600 6,700 7,000 7,200 7,200

Personal and Household Goods Repair and Maintenance

0.55,800 6,000 6,000 6,200 6,300 6,300 2,700 0.2 3,100 3,300 3,300 3,500 3,600 3,600

Personal Care Services 2.023,300 24,000 24,200 24,700 25,100 25,200 11,600 1.0 11,700 12,400 12,600 13,100 13,500 13,600

Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

1.517,500 18,000 18,100 18,500 18,800 18,900 20,200 1.7 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Selected Office Administrative Services

0.55,800 6,000 6,000 6,200 6,300 6,300 11,100 0.9 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

TOTAL WARRANTED SERVICES SPACE 17.5 204,200 210,000 211,500 216,200 219,900 220,800 175,700 14.9 41,100 45,500 46,700 50,300 53,200 53,900

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.1) In our calculation of Total Warranted Services Space we have assumed that services in the Primary Zone would have a high capture rate (90%) , similar to most other retail/service commercial categories in the local market. The high local capture rates in the Primary Zone can be attributed to the location, which is somewhat isolated from other cities and subsequently additional retail/service commercial alternatives. At the same time, we have assumed that inflow rates would be relatively low (10%) .2) Only includes selected services establishments located in Elliot Lake. Certain establishments have been excluded, including those located outside of Elliot Lake, as well as Automobile dealerships/service centres, the Denison Office Building, which is comprised of a number of selected office and administrative establishments. Also, other services have not been included in our per capita space analysis.

Required Square Feet Per Capita

Total Warranted Services Space (1 Existing Inventory (2

Existing Square Feet Per Capita

Warranted Additional Services Space


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3.4 RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSIONS

Figure 3-11 provides a summary of the warranted retail and service commercial space in Elliot Lake based on the result of residual market analysis and our per capita space analysis. We have summarized the warranted retail/service commercial space under three scenarios: (1) High-End of Typical Sales Performance Levels; (2) Average Sales Performance Levels; and (3) Low-End of Typical Sales Performance Levels for each retail store cateogry. Assuming average sales performance levels for each store category, there would be an estimated 90,900 square feet of warranted additional retail/service commercial space in Elliot Lake in 2014. By 2031, the amount of warranted additional retail/service commercial space is expected to increase to approximately 154,700 square feet.


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FIGURE 3-11: TOTAL WARRANTED SPACE SUMMARY

High Sales Performance Level

Store CategorySales Per Square Foot ($)

Inflow (%) 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031

Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores $700 10% 3,300 3,800 5,900 7,600 9,500Clothing and Accessories Stores $400 10% 5,800 6,100 7,500 9,200 10,500Furniture, Home Furnishings and Electronics Stores $450 15% 1,000 1,600 2,600 4,200 5,600Building and Outdoor Home Supplies Stores $350 15% 2,000 3,000 5,700 8,700 11,100General Merchandise $500 15% 20,900 22,800 27,800 32,500 37,300Miscellanous Retailers $350 10% 4,800 5,100 6,300 7,600 8,600TOTAL NFSR SPACE 37,800 42,400 55,800 69,800 82,600

Supermarkets $600 10% 2,000 2,400 3,900 5,000 6,000Grocery/Other Food Stores $350 10% 300 300 600 1,000 1,100TOTAL FSR SPACE 2,300 2,700 4,500 6,000 7,100

Food Services and Drinking Places n/a n/a 3,000 3,300 4,200 5,000 5,200

All Other Commercial Services n/a n/a 42,500 43,400 46,100 48,200 48,700TOTAL SERVICE SPACE n/a n/a 45,500 46,700 50,300 53,200 53,900TOTAL WARRANTED SPACE 85,600 91,800 110,600 129,000 143,600

Average Sales Performance Level


Inflow (%) 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031


Supermarkets (1 $550 10% 2,200 2,600 4,200 5,500 6,600

Grocery/Other Food Stores $300 10% 400 400 700 1,100 1,300TOTAL FSR SPACE 2,600 3,000 4,900 6,600 7,900



Low Sales Performance Level


Inflow (%) 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031


Supermarkets (1 $500 10% 2,400 2,900 4,700 6,000 7,200

Grocery/Other Food Stores $250 10% 400 400 900 1,300 1,600TOTAL FSR SPACE 2,800 3,300 5,600 7,300 8,800



SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.

1) Warranted supermarket space does not include the reconstruction of the Foodland store. We have assumed this store will be reconstructed at a size of approximately 28,000 square feet.


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4 COMMERCIAL STRATEGY

4.1 WARRANTED SPACE IN ELLIOT LAKE OUTSIDE PEARSON PLAZA

Based on the results of our residual market analysis and per capita space analysis, the Total Warranted Space in 2014 is approximately 90,900 square feet. It is important to recognize that our analysis does not include the reconstruction of the Foodland supermarket at an estimated size of 28,000 square feet. Excluding both the new Foodland supermarket, and the new public library, Pearson Plaza currently proposes approximately 52,700 square feet of retail/service commercial space.

urbanMetrics compared the Total Warranted Space throughout the study period to the space proposed as part of Pearson Plaza in order to determine to the Warranted Additional Space in Elliot Lake. As indicated by Figure 4-1, the space currently proposed as part of Pearson Plaza would fulfill the short-term retail space demands in the local market.

FIGURE 4-1: WARRANTED SPACE IN LOCATIONS OUTSIDE PEARSON PLAZA

The majority of the Warranted Additional Space in Elliot Lake in 2014 and 2016 can be attributed to service commercial uses, recognizing that most of the space proposed as part of Pearson Plaza is retail oriented. Only an estimated 4,000 to 5,800 square feet of additional retail space would be required at locations elsewhere in Elliot Lake between 2014 and 2016. While Pearson Plaza is expected to account for the majority of the Warranted Additional Space in Elliot Lake in 2014 and 2016, our analysis indicates that there will be opportunity for up to 40,800 square feet of additional service commercial space at locations elsewhere in Elliot Lake.


Store Category 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores 3,600 2,000 1,600 2,100 4,300 6,200 8,200Clothing and Accessories Stores 6,700 8,600 n/a n/a 0 1,900 3,400Furniture, Home Furnishings and Electronics Stores 1,200 2,500 n/a n/a 400 2,200 3,800Building and Outdoor Home Supplies Stores 2,400 0 2,400 3,500 6,700 10,200 12,900General Merchandise 23,300 25,600 n/a n/a 5,200 10,500 15,800Miscellanous Retailers 5,600 5,700 n/a 200 1,700 3,200 4,400TOTAL NFSR SPACE 42,800 44,400 4,000 5,800 18,300 34,200 48,500

Supermarkets (2 2,200 0 2,200 2,600 4,200 5,500 6,600Grocery/Other Food Stores 400 700 n/a n/a 0 400 600TOTAL FSR SPACE 2,600 700 2,200 2,600 4,200 5,900 7,200

Food Services and Drinking Places 3,000 5,900 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aAll Other Commercial Services 42,500 1,700 40,800 44,700 47,300 49,400 50,000TOTAL SERVICE SPACE 45,500 7,600 40,800 44,700 47,300 49,400 50,000TOTAL WARRANTED SPACE OUTSIDE PEARSON PLAZA 90,900 52,700 47,000 53,100 69,800 89,500 105,700

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc1) Based on preliminary leasing information provided by the selected development proponent on November 12, 2012.2) It is important to reconize that the reconstruction of the Foodland supermarket (28,000 SQFT) has not been included in our analysis.

Warranted Additional Space in Elliot LakeTotal Warranted Space 2014

Proposed Pearson

Plaza (1


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Furthermore, there will be market opportunity for even more service commercial space, along with additional retail space in the local market by 2021. Moreover, between 2021 and 2031, the amount of Warranted Additional Space in Elliot Lake is expected to increase substantially. By 2031, there is expected to be approximately 105,700 square feet of Warranted Additional Space in Elliot Lake, in locations outside of Pearson Plaza, including 48,500 square feet of NFSR space, 7,200 square feet of FSR space, and 50,000 square feet of service space

4.2 SUMMARY OF MARKET DEPTH

As part of urbanMetrics’ retail market analysis, we have assembled a list of retail chains that already have a presence in smaller communities located in Northern Ontario, which could potentially locate in Elliot Lake. In order to determine the market depth, urbanMetrics has identified retail chains which already operate in smaller Northern Ontario communities similar to Elliot Lake, and determined the average size of each retailer. These retailers are summarized in Appendix G. The total size of these establishments has been calculated, and the potential retail chains have been grouped by store category. The total market depth has been estimated at 473,020 square feet, as indicated by store category in Figure 4-2.

FIGURE 4-2: PROPOSED PEARSON PLAZA AND MARKET DEPTH COMPARISON


Store CategoryProposed

Space

Percentage of Total Market

Depth

Total Stores

Proposed

Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores 32,460 2,000 6.2% 1Clothing and Accessories Stores 57,640 8,600 14.9% 4Furniture, Home Furnishings and Electronics Stores 54,000 2,500 4.6% 1Building and Outdoor Home Supplies Stores 16,900 0 n/a 0General Merchandise 246,090 25,600 10.4% 3Miscellanous Retailers n/a 5,700 n/a 3TOTAL NFSR SPACE 407,090 44,400 10.9% 12

Supermarkets (2 n/a 0 n/a 0Grocery/Other Food Stores 11,030 700 6.3% 1TOTAL FSR SPACE 11,030 700 6.3% 1

Food Services and Drinking Places (3 54,900 5,900 10.7% 3All Other Commercial Services n/a 1,700 n/a 2TOTAL SERVICE SPACE 54,900 7,600 13.8% 5TOTAL 473,020 52,700 11.1% 18

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc

2) It is important to reconize that the reconstruction of the Foodland supermarket (28,000 SQFT) has not been included in our analysis.3) There are three food services and drinking paces currently proposed, in addition to a food court which has been estimated at approximately 3,800 square feet.4) To determine the number of additional store required for all other commercial services, we have assumed an average store size of 2,000 square feet.

1) Based on preliminary leasing information provided by the selected development proponent on November 12, 2012. Does not include the new Library which would likely be approximately 11,000 square feet, or approximately 5,300 square feet of space for future development/TBD.

Summary of Market

Depth

Pearson Plaza (1


34

Figure 4-2 also indicates the percentage of the total market depth represented by Pearson Plaza. Overall, the space currently proposed as part Pearson Plaza would account for an estimated 11.1% of the total market depth. The proposed concept plan for Pearson Plaza includes an estimated 18 retail/service commercial establishments, in addition to a small food court.

Figure 4-3 indicates the percentage of the total market depth represented by the warranted additional space in Elliot Lake. The total warranted additional space in Elliot Lake would account for 1.0% of the total market depth in 2014. By 2031, the total warranted additional space in Elliot Lake would account for 17.4% of the total market depth. As a result, the space currently proposed as part of Pearson Plaza, along with the warranted additional space in Elliot Lake would collectively account for 28.5% of the total market depth.

We have also estimated the number of additional stores required at locations elsewhere in the local market based on the amount of warranted additional space, and the list of retail chains which could potentially locate in Elliot Lake. The estimated number of additional stores required in Elliot Lake has been estimated at 21 in 2014; with the majority of these stores being service oriented. By 2031, the number of additional stores required at locations elsewhere in Elliot Lake has been estimated 34 to 35, including 9 to 10 stores which are retail oriented.


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FIGURE 4-3: WARRANTED ADDITIONAL SPACE IN ELLIOT LAKE AND MARKET DEPTH COMPARISON


Store Category 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores 32,460 1,600 2,100 4,300 6,200 8,200 4.9% 6.5% 13.2% 19.1% 25.3% 1 1 2 2 - 3 3Clothing and Accessories Stores 57,640 0 0 0 1,900 3,400 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.3% 5.9% 0 0 0 1 1 - 2Furniture, Home Furnishings and Electronics Stores 54,000 0 0 400 2,200 3,800 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 4.1% 7.0% 0 0 0 1 1Building and Outdoor Home Supplies Stores 16,900 2,400 3,500 6,700 10,200 12,900 14.2% 20.7% 39.6% 60.4% 76.3% 0 0 0 0 1General Merchandise 246,090 0 0 5,200 10,500 15,800 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 4.3% 6.4% 0 0 1 1 - 2 2Miscellanous Retailers n/a 0 200 1,700 3,200 4,400 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0TOTAL NFSR SPACE 407,090 4,000 5,800 18,300 34,200 48,500 1.0% 1.4% 4.5% 8.4% 11.9% 1 1 3 5 - 7 8 -9

Supermarkets (2 n/a 2,200 2,600 4,200 5,500 6,600 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0Grocery/Other Food Stores 11,030 0 0 0 400 600 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% 5.4% 0 0 0 0 1TOTAL FSR SPACE 11,030 2,200 2,600 4,200 5,900 7,200 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% 5.4% 0 0 0 0 1

Food Services and Drinking Places (3 54,900 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0

All Other Commercial Services (4 n/a 40,800 44,700 47,300 49,400 50,000 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 20 22 24 25 25TOTAL SERVICE SPACE 54,900 40,800 44,700 47,300 49,400 50,000 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 20 22 24 25 25TOTAL 473,020 47,000 53,100 69,800 89,500 105,700 1.0% 1.4% 4.5% 12.0% 17.4% 21 23 27 30 - 32 34 - 35

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc

2) It is important to reconize that the reconstruction of the Foodland supermarket (28,000 SQFT) has not been included in our analysis.3) There are three food services and drinking paces currently proposed, in addition to a food court which has been estimated at approximately 3,800 square feet.4) To determine the number of additional store required for all other commercial services, we have assumed an average store size of 2,000 square feet.

1) Based on preliminary leasing information provided by the selected development proponent on November 12, 2012. Does not include the new Library which would likely be approximately 11,000 square feet, or approximately 5,300 square feet of space for future development/TBD.

Warranted Additional Space in Elliot Lake (Outside Pearson Plaza)

Summary of Market

Depth

Total Warranted Additional Space Percentage of Total Market Depth Number of Additional Stores Required


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4.3 RETAIL ATTRACTION STRATEGY

An underlying theme identified in the community engagement session, undertaken by urbanMetrics and Brook McIlroy, was a lack of retail services in Elliot Lake and its impediment to the economy. Overall, about 1 in 4 people at the community engagement indicated that lack of retail was the biggest impediment to Elliot Lake’s future and almost 1 in 5 indicated that limited retail choice or no familiar chains was the biggest impediment to the Elliot Lake economy. When asked what role the municipality should play in attracting business, about 1 in 4 people at the community engagement session indicated that the municipality should promote and attract investment, and about 1 in 7 indicated the municipality should be closely focused on improving retail services. Based on these results, urbanMetrics has prepared a strategy for the municipality to attract retailers to Elliot Lake. These steps include initiatives already being addressed by Elliot Lake, such as the downtown revitalization and community beautification, to the development of information packets to attract retailers to the community, as well as strengthening relationships with current commercial property owners.

4.3.1 DOWNTOWN REVITALIZATION, BEAUTIFICATION, AND EVENTS

In the past, Elliot Lake has undertaken initiatives aimed at downtown revitalization and community beautification, which have been successful according to members of the community. Overall, about 1 in 4 people at the community engagement session indicated that community beautification had a big impact on the community and about 1 in 5 people indicated that they felt the Downtown Revitalization also had an impact on the community. In attracting retailers to Elliot Lake, it is important that the municipality continue to invest in these types of programs. In addition to these investments, people at the community engagement session also felt that the municipality should play a role in attracting business by establishing a farmer’s market and promoting special events.

4.3.2 DEVELOPMENT OF INFORMATION PACKETS TARGETED AT SPECIFIC RETAILERS/SERVICES

An important recruitment tool in attracting retailers to Elliot Lake is the development of an information packet that highlights aspects of Elliot Lake that are appealing to retailers who may be considering expansion. This packet should include demographic data, in addition to location intelligence, and lifestyle data tailored to each retail group that Elliot Lake is trying to attract. In addition to highlighting sales potential in the community, the packet should also list specific demographic data. Some examples include:

• Population and households – current level and growth forecasts • Median age and age distribution • Average and median household incomes • Education Levels • Percent that are homeowners


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• Percent that are families with children • Number of people commuting to Elliot Lake for work

In addition to basic demographic data, the information packet should also include location intelligence and lifestyle (psychography) data.

• Location intelligence: allows potential retailers to see information in a geospatial context, such as, the trade area, where consumers in Elliot Lake spend money, where retail competition is located or where there is retail space for lease. This could also include heat maps such as average household income and income density.

• Lifestyle data: these data go beyond basic demographics to look at individuals and their interest. Consumers are broken down into a variety of segments to more accurately identify potential customers for retailers. There are a variety of companies that provide lifestyle data, which Elliot Lake can purchase and incorporate into their information packet.

In addition to these data sources, Elliot Lake has the added benefit of including information obtained from the community engagement session by urbanMetrics and Brook McIlroy, which identified specific retailers that Elliot Lake residents were most likely to visit if the retailer was in Elliot Lake. Some of the most popular retailers from each retail group, and the percentage of respondents who indicated that they would shop there regularly, include: Bulk Barn (64%), The Brick (34%), Shoppers: Home Health Care (33%), Payless Shoes (29%), Mark’s (25%), Dollarama (25%) and Swiss Chalet (25%).

In addition to underserved segments identified through lifestyle data, members of the community who attended the community engagement session also listed services that they felt were under-represented in Elliot Lake, including: Health services (23%), Property Repair and Maintenance (12%), Food, Nutrition and In-Home Catering (12%).

Once an information packet has been prepared, a list of contact people at potential retailers should be assembled and an information packet should be supplied to these contacts. The municipality could also make the information packets available on the Invest in Elliot Lake website.

4.3.3 FRANCHISE ENGAGEMENT

Based on results from the community engagement session by urbanMetrics and Brook McIlroy, many Elliot Lake residents feel it is the municipality’s responsibility to engage franchisees and attract them to Elliot Lake. Overall, about 22% of Elliot Lake residents indicated that they would target business franchisees if they managed Elliot Lake’s marketing budget.

One option for attracting franchisees is advertising through the Canadian Franchise Association (CFA). The Canadian Franchise Association represents over 500 corporate members Canada-wide and educates members through events, programs and publications. While the Canadian Franchise Show and CFA website are generally used by those seeking to start a franchise, Elliot


38

Lake could use the show or CFA website to advertise its advantages as a destination for franchisees to invest.

To advertise through the CFA, you must be a member, at an annual cost of $2,050. In the past, there have been municipalities, such as Wasaga Beach, who have been members of the CFA and advertised in their trade publications. Elliot Lake could rent a booth or table top at the Canadian Franchise Show or advertise in CFA publications like FranchiseCanada or FranchiseVoice, which are newsletters distributed to franchisors. The cost of ads in FranchiseCanada range from $1,040 for a 1/4 page advertisement to $3,200 for a double page spread. Information from the CFA indicates that 47% of prospective franchisees are willing to commute or relocate for a franchise opportunity. In addition to advertising at the Canadian Franchise Show or in a trade publication, discussions with CFA have indicated that they are exploring the idea of dedicating a section of their new website to highlighting municipalities who are interested in attracting franchisees. It was also indicated that this section of the website may not require the municipality to have a membership with the CFA.

In addition to engaging franchises through the CFA website or Canadian Franchise Show, Elliot Lake could also advertise its advantages as a destination for retail investment through the Monday Report on Retailers, which is a weekly newsletter that reports on news for retail chains. The newsletter reports on the expansion plans of selected retailers, but Elliot Lake could potentially advertise its advantages as a destination for retailers.

4.3.4 FOSTERING RELATIONSHIPS WITH COMMERCIAL PROPERTY OWNERS AND DEVELOPERS

In addition to attracting new retailers to Elliot Lake, it is important that the municipality nurture relationships with commercial property owners and retailers currently in the community. By working with commercial property owners, the municipality can understand the challenges they face, specifically related to attracting retailers. The municipality can also keep track of when leases are expiring and highlight upcoming vacancies in information packets to potential retailers.

4.4 CONCLUSIONS

Our retail market analysis indicates that the space currently proposed as part of Pearson Plaza will adequately serve the short-term retail market demands of local residents in Elliot Lake, although there would also be market support to justify a significant amount of service commercial space during the same period, as well as some additional retail space. Over the longer-term, after 2021, our analysis indicates that there would be market opportunity to support the addition of further retail and service commercial space in Elliot Lake.

The amount of warranted additional retail/service commercial space is expected to continue to increase over the duration of the study period, in response to population and expenditure


39

growth. As a result, there will be market opportunity for additional retail space, particularly beyond the year 2021, in the following store categories:

• Pharmacy and personal care stores; • Clothing and accessories stores; • Furniture, Electronics, and Home Furnishings stores; • Building and Outdoor Home Supplies stores; • General Merchandise stores; and • Various Commercial services.

The majority of the additional services space required to serve the local market is related to health care services and personal care services. With the addition of more retail/service commercial space in Elliot Lake, local residents will have access to a full range of retail/service commercial establishments.


40

APPENDIX A – ONTARIO MINISTRY OF FINANCE POPULATION PROJECTIONS

The Ontario Ministry of Finance (“MOF”) provides population projections for each of the 49 Census Divisions in Ontario. These projections were undertaken by the MOF to update the projections released in the Spring of 2011, which were based on the 2006 Census. These projections have been recently updated to reflect the 2011 Census data from Statistics Canada, including demographic patterns relating to fertility, mortality and migration. The updated projections from the MOF were completed under three scenarios: low, medium and high growth. The medium growth scenario is considered the ‘reference scenario’ and has been used for the purposes of our analysis.

urbanMetrics has used the updated MOF projections to forecast future population levels in the Trade Area. For each Trade Area Zone, we determined share of the total population in the Algoma Census Division based on the 2011 Census. This percentage has been used to determine the amount of growth in the Algoma Census Division, which can be attributed to the Primary and Secondary Zones in future years.

Figure A-1 provides the MOF population projections, by age group, for the Algoma Census division. Figure A-2 indicates the shares of the total population in the Algoma Census Division, which are accounted for by the communities in the Primary and Secondary Zones. Figure A-3 provides a summary of the population forecast, by age group, for the Primary Zone. Figure A-4 provides a summary of the population forecast, by age group, for the communities which comprise the Secondary Zone (including Blind River, North Shore, Spanish, Mississagi River IRI, and Serpent River IRI). These population projections have been adjusted to account for net undercoverage in the 2011 Census.


41

FIGURE A-1: ONTARIO MINISTRY OF FINANCE POPULATION PROJECTIONS 2011 - 2036

Alg

oma

Year

0-4

5-9

10-1

415

-19

20-2

425

-29

30-3

435

-39

40-4

445

-49

50-5

455

-59

60-6

465

-69

70-7

475

-79

80-8

485

-89

90+

Tota

l20

115,

190

5,33

05,

980

7,16

07,

840

6,42

05,

680

6,11

06,

950

8,97

010

,340

9,98

08,

770

7,11

05,

790

4,71

03,

740

2,06

089

011

8,99

020

125,

200

5,33

05,

790

6,84

07,

870

6,57

05,

610

5,98

06,

920

8,37

010

,250

10,2

408,

790

7,42

05,

940

4,62

03,

840

2,08

01,

050

118,

700

2013

5,15

05,

370

5,71

06,

550

7,73

06,

730

5,72

05,

820

6,79

07,

860

10,1

2010

,380

8,90

07,

720

6,10

04,

620

3,85

02,

160

1,17

011

8,44

020

145,

120

5,36

05,

670

6,39

07,

470

6,90

05,

770

5,82

06,

650

7,41

09,

860

10,4

009,

180

8,07

06,

130

4,71

03,

780

2,27

01,

270

118,

200

2015

5,08

05,

400

5,64

06,

170

7,17

07,

000

5,94

05,

890

6,40

07,

000

9,58

010

,480

9,44

08,

300

6,26

04,

770

3,73

02,

370

1,38

011

7,98

020

165,

040

5,48

05,

560

6,06

06,

880

6,97

06,

110

5,92

06,

180

6,87

09,

050

10,4

309,

870

8,41

06,

440

4,89

03,

720

2,47

01,

460

117,

770

2017

5,06

05,

490

5,55

05,

880

6,60

06,

980

6,26

05,

880

6,06

06,

840

8,47

010

,360

10,1

408,

460

6,76

05,

050

3,66

02,

550

1,54

011

7,57

020

185,

070

5,45

05,

580

5,80

06,

340

6,86

06,

410

5,99

05,

920

6,73

07,

960

10,2

5010

,290

8,58

07,

050

5,22

03,

670

2,57

01,

640

117,

370

2019

5,06

05,

430

5,57

05,

760

6,18

06,

640

6,57

06,

050

5,93

06,

590

7,51

010

,020

10,3

308,

870

7,37

05,

270

3,76

02,

540

1,74

011

7,18

020

205,

050

5,40

05,

600

5,73

05,

980

6,39

06,

660

6,21

05,

990

6,36

07,

110

9,76

010

,430

9,13

07,

600

5,40

03,

830

2,52

01,

850

116,

980

2021

5,03

05,

370

5,67

05,

660

5,88

06,

150

6,64

06,

370

6,02

06,

150

6,98

09,

240

10,4

109,

550

7,71

05,

570

3,95

02,

520

1,94

011

6,79

020

225,

000

5,40

05,

690

5,64

05,

710

5,92

06,

660

6,53

05,

990

6,03

06,

940

8,68

010

,350

9,82

07,

770

5,87

04,

100

2,50

02,

020

116,

600

2023

4,95

05,

420

5,65

05,

670

5,64

05,

690

6,58

06,

670

6,11

05,

900

6,83

08,

180

10,2

809,

980

7,90

06,

140

4,25

02,

520

2,07

011

6,41

020

244,

900

5,43

05,

640

5,67

05,

600

5,55

06,

400

6,82

06,

180

5,91

06,

690

7,72

010

,070

10,0

408,

180

6,43

04,

310

2,60

02,

100

116,

220

2025

4,84

05,

420

5,62

05,

700

5,57

05,

380

6,19

06,

910

6,34

05,

970

6,48

07,

330

9,83

010

,150

8,43

06,

650

4,43

02,

660

2,14

011

6,02

020

264,

770

5,41

05,

600

5,77

05,

510

5,27

05,

990

6,92

06,

500

6,00

06,

280

7,19

09,

340

10,1

608,

820

6,77

04,

590

2,76

02,

180

115,

810

2027

4,70

05,

380

5,63

05,

780

5,50

05,

130

5,78

06,

950

6,65

05,

980

6,16

07,

160

8,79

010

,130

9,08

06,

830

4,87

02,

880

2,21

011

5,60

020

284,

630

5,35

05,

660

5,76

05,

520

5,06

05,

570

6,88

06,

780

6,10

06,

030

7,05

08,

300

10,0

809,

250

6,96

05,

110

3,01

02,

250

115,

360

2029

4,56

05,

300

5,68

05,

750

5,52

05,

030

5,44

06,

730

6,93

06,

170

6,05

06,

910

7,86

09,

910

9,32

07,

220

5,37

03,

070

2,31

011

5,12

020

304,

500

5,25

05,

680

5,74

05,

550

4,99

05,

280

6,53

07,

030

6,33

06,

100

6,71

07,

470

9,70

09,

440

7,46

05,

560

3,17

02,

380

114,

860

2031

4,43

05,

200

5,67

05,

730

5,61

04,

950

5,17

06,

330

7,05

06,

480

6,15

06,

510

7,34

09,

250

9,48

07,

810

5,67

03,

310

2,47

011

4,59

020

324,

380

5,13

05,

660

5,77

05,

630

4,94

05,

040

6,13

07,

080

6,63

06,

140

6,39

07,

310

8,73

09,

470

8,06

05,

750

3,53

02,

560

114,

310

2033

4,32

05,

060

5,63

05,

800

5,61

04,

960

4,98

05,

930

7,02

06,

760

6,26

06,

280

7,21

08,

250

9,45

08,

220

5,88

03,

730

2,67

011

4,03

020

344,

280

5,00

05,

590

5,82

05,

610

4,96

04,

950

5,80

06,

880

6,90

06,

340

6,30

07,

070

7,83

09,

320

8,31

06,

120

3,92

02,

740

113,

730

2035

4,25

04,

930

5,55

05,

830

5,61

04,

990

4,91

05,

640

6,69

07,

000

6,51

06,

350

6,87

07,

460

9,15

08,

440

6,34

04,

070

2,84

011

3,43

020

364,

220

4,87

05,

490

5,83

05,

610

5,03

04,

890

5,53

06,

510

7,03

06,

660

6,40

06,

690

7,35

08,

750

8,50

06,

650

4,17

02,

980

113,

130


42

FIGURE A-2: PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ZONE COMMUNITIES SHARE OF ALGOMA POPULATION

FIGURE A-3: PRIMARY ZONE POPULATION FORECAST

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+ Total2011 PopulationElliot Lake 335 385 430 555 440 340 335 405 475 710 900 935 1,130 1,190 1,145 820 505 235 80 11,350Blind River 170 160 165 195 200 195 150 160 185 275 360 345 290 250 160 140 85 45 15 3,550The North Shore 10 15 15 25 10 10 5 15 20 50 60 70 70 55 45 15 10 5 0 505Spanish 25 20 40 55 35 25 30 25 35 65 70 70 55 45 35 25 20 10 0 695Mississagi River 8 IRI 25 30 30 35 30 20 30 25 35 40 40 30 15 5 5 5 5 0 0 390Serpent River 7 IRI 40 20 30 35 25 20 25 20 10 30 30 25 15 10 15 10 5 0 5 370Algoma 5,210 5,235 5,840 7,160 6,660 5,805 5,680 5,830 6,795 8,885 10,265 9,550 8,905 7,060 5,950 4,800 3,555 1,845 835 115,870

CSD share of CDElliot Lake 6.4% 7.4% 7.4% 7.8% 6.6% 5.9% 5.9% 6.9% 7.0% 8.0% 8.8% 9.8% 12.7% 16.9% 19.2% 17.1% 14.2% 12.7% 9.6% 9.8%Blind River 3.3% 3.1% 2.8% 2.7% 3.0% 3.4% 2.6% 2.7% 2.7% 3.1% 3.5% 3.6% 3.3% 3.5% 2.7% 2.9% 2.4% 2.4% 1.8% 3.1%The North Shore 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4%Spanish 0.5% 0.4% 0.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.6%Mississagi River 8 IRI 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%Serpent River 7 IRI 0.8% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.3%

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc., based on the MOF Population Projections - Reference Scenario 2011 - 2036.

Elliot Lake 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+ Total2011 (Census) 335 385 430 555 440 340 335 405 475 710 900 935 1,130 1,190 1,145 820 505 235 80 11,350 2011 (forecast) 334 392 440 555 518 376 335 424 486 717 907 977 1,113 1,198 1,114 805 531 262 85 11,570

2012 334 392 426 530 520 385 331 415 484 669 899 1,003 1,115 1,251 1,143 789 545 265 101 11,597 2013 331 395 420 508 511 394 337 404 475 628 887 1,016 1,129 1,301 1,174 789 547 275 112 11,635 2014 329 394 417 495 494 404 340 404 465 592 864 1,018 1,165 1,360 1,180 805 537 289 122 11,675 2015 327 397 415 478 474 410 350 409 447 559 840 1,026 1,198 1,399 1,205 815 530 302 132 11,714 2016 324 403 409 470 455 408 360 411 432 549 793 1,021 1,252 1,418 1,239 835 528 315 140 11,764 2017 325 404 409 456 436 409 369 408 424 547 743 1,014 1,287 1,426 1,301 863 520 325 148 11,812 2018 326 401 411 450 419 402 378 416 414 538 698 1,004 1,306 1,446 1,357 892 521 327 157 11,861 2019 325 399 410 446 408 389 387 420 415 527 658 981 1,311 1,495 1,418 900 534 324 167 11,916 2020 325 397 412 444 395 374 393 431 419 508 623 956 1,324 1,539 1,463 923 544 321 177 11,967 2021 323 395 417 439 388 360 392 443 421 491 612 905 1,321 1,610 1,484 952 561 321 186 12,020 2022 321 397 419 437 377 347 393 454 419 482 608 850 1,313 1,655 1,495 1,003 582 318 194 12,065 2023 318 399 416 440 373 333 388 463 427 471 599 801 1,304 1,682 1,520 1,049 604 321 198 12,107 2024 315 399 415 440 370 325 377 474 432 472 587 756 1,278 1,692 1,574 1,098 612 331 201 12,149 2025 311 399 414 442 368 315 365 480 443 477 568 718 1,247 1,711 1,622 1,136 629 339 205 12,189 2026 307 398 412 447 364 309 353 481 454 479 551 704 1,185 1,713 1,697 1,157 652 352 209 12,223



43

FIGURE A-4: SECONDARY ZONE POPULATION FORECAST

Blind River 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+ Total2011 (Census) 170 160 165 195 200 195 150 160 185 275 360 345 290 250 160 140 85 45 15 3,550 2011 (forecast) 169 163 169 195 235 216 150 168 189 278 363 361 286 252 156 137 89 50 16 3,641

2012 170 163 164 186 236 221 148 164 188 259 359 370 286 263 160 135 92 51 19 3,634 2013 168 164 161 178 232 226 151 160 185 243 355 375 290 273 164 135 92 53 21 3,627 2014 167 164 160 174 224 232 152 160 181 229 346 376 299 286 165 137 90 55 23 3,621 2015 166 165 159 168 215 235 157 162 174 217 336 379 307 294 168 139 89 58 25 3,613 2016 164 167 157 165 207 234 161 162 168 213 317 377 321 298 173 143 89 60 26 3,604 2017 165 168 157 160 198 234 165 161 165 212 297 374 330 300 182 147 88 62 28 3,593 2018 165 167 158 158 190 230 169 164 161 208 279 370 335 304 190 152 88 63 29 3,582 2019 165 166 157 157 186 223 174 166 161 204 263 362 336 314 198 154 90 62 31 3,570 2020 165 165 158 156 180 215 176 170 163 197 249 353 340 323 204 158 92 61 33 3,558 2021 164 164 160 154 177 207 175 175 164 190 245 334 339 338 207 162 94 61 35 3,547 2022 163 165 161 154 171 199 176 179 163 187 243 314 337 348 209 171 98 61 36 3,535 2023 162 166 160 154 169 191 174 183 166 183 240 296 335 353 212 179 102 61 37 3,523 2024 160 166 159 154 168 186 169 187 168 183 235 279 328 356 220 188 103 63 38 3,510 2025 158 166 159 155 167 181 163 190 173 185 227 265 320 359 227 194 106 65 38 3,498 2026 156 165 158 157 165 177 158 190 177 186 220 260 304 360 237 197 110 67 39 3,484

The North Shore 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+ Total2011 (Census) 10 15 15 25 10 10 5 15 20 50 60 70 70 55 45 15 10 5 - 505 2011 (forecast) 10 15 15 25 12 11 5 16 20 50 60 73 69 55 44 15 11 6 - 513

2012 10 15 15 24 12 11 5 15 20 47 60 75 69 58 45 14 11 6 - 513 2013 10 15 15 23 12 12 5 15 20 44 59 76 70 60 46 14 11 6 - 513 2014 10 15 15 22 11 12 5 15 20 42 58 76 72 63 46 15 11 6 - 513 2015 10 15 14 22 11 12 5 15 19 39 56 77 74 65 47 15 10 6 - 514 2016 10 16 14 21 10 12 5 15 18 39 53 76 78 66 49 15 10 7 - 514 2017 10 16 14 21 10 12 6 15 18 38 50 76 80 66 51 16 10 7 - 514 2018 10 16 14 20 10 12 6 15 17 38 47 75 81 67 53 16 10 7 - 514 2019 10 16 14 20 9 11 6 16 17 37 44 73 81 69 56 16 11 7 - 514 2020 10 15 14 20 9 11 6 16 18 36 42 72 82 71 57 17 11 7 - 513 2021 10 15 15 20 9 11 6 16 18 35 41 68 82 74 58 17 11 7 - 512 2022 10 15 15 20 9 10 6 17 18 34 41 64 81 77 59 18 12 7 - 510 2023 10 16 15 20 8 10 6 17 18 33 40 60 81 78 60 19 12 7 - 508 2024 9 16 14 20 8 10 6 18 18 33 39 57 79 78 62 20 12 7 - 506 2025 9 16 14 20 8 9 5 18 19 34 38 54 77 79 64 21 12 7 - 504 2026 9 16 14 20 8 9 5 18 19 34 37 53 73 79 67 21 13 7 - 503

Spanish 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+ Total2011 (Census) 25 20 40 55 35 25 30 25 35 65 70 70 55 45 35 25 20 10 - 695 2011 (forecast) 25 20 41 55 41 28 30 26 36 66 71 73 54 45 34 25 21 11 - 702

2012 25 20 40 53 41 28 30 26 36 61 70 75 54 47 35 24 22 11 - 698 2013 25 21 39 50 41 29 30 25 35 58 69 76 55 49 36 24 22 12 - 694 2014 25 20 39 49 39 30 30 25 34 54 67 76 57 51 36 25 21 12 - 692 2015 24 21 39 47 38 30 31 25 33 51 65 77 58 53 37 25 21 13 - 689 2016 24 21 38 47 36 30 32 25 32 50 62 76 61 54 38 25 21 13 - 686 2017 24 21 38 45 35 30 33 25 31 50 58 76 63 54 40 26 21 14 - 683 2018 24 21 38 45 33 30 34 26 30 49 54 75 64 55 41 27 21 14 - 681 2019 24 21 38 44 32 29 35 26 31 48 51 73 64 57 43 27 21 14 - 679 2020 24 21 38 44 31 28 35 27 31 47 48 72 64 58 45 28 22 14 - 676 2021 24 21 39 43 31 26 35 27 31 45 48 68 64 61 45 29 22 14 - 673 2022 24 21 39 43 30 25 35 28 31 44 47 64 64 63 46 31 23 14 - 671 2023 24 21 39 44 30 25 35 29 31 43 47 60 63 64 46 32 24 14 - 669 2024 24 21 39 44 29 24 34 29 32 43 46 57 62 64 48 33 24 14 - 666 2025 23 21 38 44 29 23 33 30 33 44 44 54 61 65 50 35 25 14 - 664 2026 23 21 38 44 29 23 32 30 33 44 43 53 58 65 52 35 26 15 - 662

Mississagi River 8 IRI 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+ Total2011 (Census) 25 30 30 35 30 20 30 25 35 40 40 30 15 5 5 5 5 - - 390 2011 (forecast) 25 31 31 35 35 22 30 26 36 40 40 31 15 5 5 5 5 - - 417

2012 25 31 30 33 35 23 30 26 36 38 40 32 15 5 5 5 5 - - 413 2013 25 31 29 32 35 23 30 25 35 35 39 33 15 5 5 5 5 - - 408 2014 25 31 29 31 34 24 30 25 34 33 38 33 15 6 5 5 5 - - 404 2015 24 31 29 30 32 24 31 25 33 32 37 33 16 6 5 5 5 - - 399 2016 24 31 29 30 31 24 32 25 32 31 35 33 17 6 5 5 5 - - 396 2017 24 31 29 29 30 24 33 25 31 31 33 33 17 6 6 5 5 - - 392 2018 24 31 29 28 29 24 34 26 30 30 31 32 17 6 6 5 5 - - 388 2019 24 31 29 28 28 23 35 26 31 30 29 31 17 6 6 5 5 - - 385 2020 24 31 29 28 27 22 35 27 31 29 28 31 18 6 6 6 5 - - 382 2021 24 31 29 28 26 21 35 27 31 28 27 29 18 7 6 6 6 - - 379 2022 24 31 29 28 26 20 35 28 31 27 27 27 17 7 7 6 6 - - 376 2023 24 31 29 28 25 20 35 29 31 27 27 26 17 7 7 6 6 - - 374 2024 24 31 29 28 25 19 34 29 32 27 26 24 17 7 7 7 6 - - 371 2025 23 31 29 28 25 19 33 30 33 27 25 23 17 7 7 7 6 - - 369 2026 23 31 29 28 25 18 32 30 33 27 24 23 16 7 7 7 6 - - 367


44

FIGURE A-4: SECONDARY ZONE POPULATION FORECAST continued…

Serpent River 7 IRI 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+ Total2011 (Census) 40 20 30 35 25 20 25 20 10 30 30 25 15 10 15 10 5 - 5 370 2011 (forecast) 40 20 31 35 29 22 25 21 10 30 30 26 15 10 15 10 5 - 5 380

2012 40 20 30 33 30 23 25 21 10 28 30 27 15 11 15 10 5 - 6 378 2013 40 21 29 32 29 23 25 20 10 27 30 27 15 11 15 10 5 - 7 375 2014 39 20 29 31 28 24 25 20 10 25 29 27 15 11 15 10 5 - 8 373 2015 39 21 29 30 27 24 26 20 9 24 28 27 16 12 16 10 5 - 8 372 2016 39 21 29 30 26 24 27 20 9 23 26 27 17 12 16 10 5 - 9 370 2017 39 21 29 29 25 24 28 20 9 23 25 27 17 12 17 11 5 - 9 369 2018 39 21 29 28 24 24 28 21 9 23 23 27 17 12 18 11 5 - 10 368 2019 39 21 29 28 23 23 29 21 9 22 22 26 17 13 19 11 5 - 10 366 2020 39 21 29 28 22 22 29 21 9 21 21 26 18 13 19 11 5 - 11 365 2021 39 21 29 28 22 21 29 22 9 21 20 24 18 14 19 12 6 - 12 364 2022 38 21 29 28 21 20 29 22 9 20 20 23 17 14 20 12 6 - 12 363 2023 38 21 29 28 21 20 29 23 9 20 20 21 17 14 20 13 6 - 12 361 2024 38 21 29 28 21 19 28 23 9 20 20 20 17 14 21 13 6 - 13 359 2025 37 21 29 28 21 19 27 24 9 20 19 19 17 14 21 14 6 - 13 358 2026 37 21 29 28 21 18 26 24 10 20 18 19 16 14 22 14 6 - 13 356

Secondary Trade Area 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+ Total2011 (Census) 270 245 280 345 300 270 240 245 285 460 560 540 445 365 260 195 125 60 20 5,510 2011 (forecast) 269 249 287 345 353 299 240 257 292 464 564 564 438 368 253 191 132 67 21 5,653

2012 269 249 278 330 355 306 237 251 290 433 559 579 439 384 260 188 135 68 25 5,634 2013 267 251 274 316 348 313 242 245 285 407 552 587 445 399 267 188 135 70 28 5,618 2014 265 251 272 308 336 321 244 245 279 384 538 588 459 417 268 191 133 74 30 5,603 2015 263 253 270 297 323 326 251 248 268 362 523 593 472 429 274 194 131 77 33 5,586 2016 261 256 267 292 310 324 258 249 259 356 494 590 493 435 281 199 131 80 35 5,570 2017 262 257 266 283 297 325 265 247 254 354 462 586 507 437 295 205 129 83 37 5,551 2018 263 255 268 279 286 319 271 252 248 348 434 580 514 444 308 212 129 84 39 5,532 2019 262 254 267 278 278 309 278 254 249 341 410 567 516 459 322 214 132 83 42 5,514 2020 262 253 268 276 269 297 281 261 251 329 388 552 521 472 332 219 135 82 44 5,494 2021 261 251 272 273 265 286 281 268 252 318 381 522 520 494 337 226 139 82 46 5,474 2022 259 253 273 272 257 275 281 274 251 312 379 491 517 508 340 238 144 81 48 5,454 2023 257 254 271 273 254 265 278 280 256 305 373 463 514 516 345 249 149 82 50 5,433 2024 254 254 270 273 252 258 270 287 259 306 365 437 503 519 357 261 152 85 50 5,413 2025 251 254 269 275 251 250 262 290 266 309 354 414 491 525 368 270 156 87 51 5,393 2026 247 253 268 278 248 245 253 291 273 311 343 407 467 525 385 275 161 90 52 5,372



45

APPENDIX B – RETAIL INVENTORY

Figure B-1 lists all of the retail/service commercial establishments in the Primary Zone and provides the location, store name, NAICS code, NAICS category and the gross leasable area for each retail unit. The information in Figure B-1 is based on an inventory conducted by urbanMetrics in August 2012.


46

FIGURE B-1: PRIMARY TRADE AREA INVENTORY

Location Store Name NAICS NAICS Code Gross Leasable Area (SQFT)

Rounded Gross Leasable Area (SQFT)

Elliot Lake Maslack Auto Parts Store 20 Automotive Supply & Tire 8,035 8,000Elliot Lake NAPA Auto Parts 20 Automotive Supply & Tire 2,353 2,400Elliot Lake OK Tire 20 Automotive Supply & Tire 3,500 3,500Subtotal - Automotive Supply & Tire 13,888 13,900Elliot Lake Seidel's 30 Furniture Stores 17,112 17,100Elliot Lake Lobek Carpet 40 Home Furnishings Stores 2,500 2,500Elliot Lake Computer FX 50 Computer and Software Stores 930 900Elliot Lake The Source-Circuit City 60 Home Electronics and Appliance Stores 1,302 1,300Elliot Lake Appliance Broker 60 Home Electronics and Appliance Stores 3,100 3,100Subtotal - Home Furnishings & Electronics 24,944 24,900Elliot Lake Soo Mills 70 Home Centres and Hardware Stores 20,000 20,000Elliot Lake Rona Building Centre 70 Home Centres and Hardware Stores 7,699 7,700Elliot Lake Para Paints 80 Specialized Building Materials and Garden Stores 1,116 1,100Elliot Lake Elliot Lake Textile and Drapery 80 Specialized Building Materials and Garden Stores 1,116 1,100Subtotal - Building & Outdoor Home Supplies 29,931 29,900Elliot Lake No Frills 90 Supermarkets 34,010 34,000Elliot Lake Foodland (former) 90 Supermarkets 26,806 26,800Subtotal - Supermarkets 34,010 34,000Elliot Lake Elliot Lake Meats and Deli 100 Convenience and Specialty Food Stores 1,562 1,600Elliot Lake M&M Meat Shop 100 Convenience and Specialty Food Stores 837 800Elliot Lake Hillside Shop & Save 100 Convenience and Specialty Food Stores 2,511 2,500Elliot Lake Breen Coffee Roasters 100 Convenience and Specialty Food Stores 1,500 1,500Elliot Lake Esso On the Run 100 Convenience and Specialty Food Stores 2,232 2,200Subtotal - Convenience & Specialty Food 8,642 8,600Elliot Lake Shoppers Drug Mart 120 Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores 18,860 18,900Elliot Lake Rexall 120 Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores 9,440 9,400Elliot Lake Freitags Remedy Rx Pharmacy 120 Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores 3,162 3,200Elliot Lake Natural Food and Therapies 120 Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores 1,339 1,300Elliot Lake Lyrettes Opticians 120 Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores 750 800Elliot Lake Elliot Lake Pharma Choice 120 Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores 2,678 2,700Subtotal - Pharmacies & Personal Care 36,230 36,300Elliot Lake Kevin's Custom Clothiers 140 Clothing Stores 1,535 1,500Elliot Lake Elliot Lake Jewlers 150 Shoe, Clothing Accessories and Jewellery Stores 791 800Elliot Lake Tin Can Alley Family Footwear 150 Shoe, Clothing Accessories and Jewellery Stores 1,562 1,600Elliot Lake Sarich's Source For Sports 150 Shoe, Clothing Accessories and Jewellery Stores 1,925 1,900Subtotal - Shoe, Clothing & Accessories 5,813 5,800Elliot Lake Elliot Lake Trading Post 180 Other General Merchandise Stores 5,100 5,100Elliot Lake Canadian Tire 180 Other General Merchandise Stores 22,000 22,000Elliot Lake Sears - Appliance Lawn Electronings 180 Other General Merchandise Stores 8,221 8,200Elliot Lake The Buck Dtops Here Dollar Store and More 180 Other General Merchandise Stores 446 400Subtotal - Other General Merchandise 35,768 35,700Elliot Lake Pet Value 190 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 1,050 1,100Elliot Lake Pet Headquarters 190 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 1,302 1,300Elliot Lake Electronics Plus New Refurbished and Used Items 190 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 781 800Elliot Lake Debyes Pets 190 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 1,590 1,600Elliot Lake Office Supplies 190 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 446 400Elliot Lake Quality Flower and Gifts 190 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 446 400Elliot Lake Sight and Sound Video Store 190 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 1,841 1,800Elliot Lake The Store (Buy Sell Trade) 190 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 651 700Elliot Lake St Vincent De Paul 190 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 11,606 11,600Elliot Lake Salvation Army 190 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 5,022 5,000Elliot Lake You Save Furniture 2nd Hand 190 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 2,500 2,500Elliot Lake Cellar Guitars 160 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Music and Book Stores 530 500Subtotal - Miscellaneous 27,767 27,700Elliot Lake Scotiabank 210 Financial Services 4,092 4,100 Elliot Lake CIBC 210 Financial Services 7,366 7,400 Elliot Lake BMO 210 Financial Services 4,743 4,700 Elliot Lake TD bank 210 Financial Services 5,654 5,700 Elliot Lake RBC 210 Financial Services 3,274 3,300 Elliot Lake Northern Credit Union 210 Financial Services 2,678 2,700 Subtotal - Financial Services 27,807 27,900


47

Location Store Name NAICS NAICS Code Gross Leasable Area (SQFT)

Rounded Gross Leasable Area (SQFT)

Elliot Lake Algoma Insurance 220 Insurance and Real Estate 651 700 Elliot Lake Royal Lepage - Northern Advantage 220 Insurance and Real Estate 2,558 2,600 Elliot Lake Ed Jones Investments 220 Insurance and Real Estate 1,339 1,300 Elliot Lake Remax Nu-/trend 220 Insurance and Real Estate 837 800 Subtotal - Insurance & Real Estate 5,385 5,400Elliot Lake Manitoba Road Animal Hospital 230 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 1,432 1,400 Elliot Lake H&R Block 230 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 1,674 1,700 Elliot Lake KPMG, Brown Farbis, Dundee Wealth Management 230 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 2,623 2,600 Elliot Lake Second Floor Offices Torrance Surveying 230 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 3,348 3,300 Elliot Lake Aube Law 230 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 1,116 1,100 Elliot Lake Fountaine and Associates Personal Bankruptcy 230 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 1,116 1,100 Elliot Lake Broker Link 230 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 1,060 1,100 Elliot Lake 3D Accounting 230 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 3,255 3,300 Elliot Lake Glenn R. Chartered Accountant 230 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 1,339 1,300 Elliot Lake Feifel, Broadbent, Gaulazzi Law Firm 230 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 1,339 1,300 Elliot Lake Beth Maynard Trustt 230 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 1,042 1,000 Elliot Lake Kearns Law Office 230 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 1,042 1,000 Subtotal - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 20,386 20,200Elliot Lake Union Gas Utility Office 240 Selected Office Administrative Services 1,700 1,700 Elliot Lake The Standard Newspaper 240 Selected Office Administrative Services 6,026 6,000 Elliot Lake College Boreal Job Connect Centre 240 Selected Office Administrative Services 2,678 2,700 Elliot Lake Marlin Travel 241 Travel Agencies 670 700 Subtotal - Selected Office Administrative Services 11,074 11,100Elliot Lake Dr. R.A. Ferguson Optomotrist 250 Health Care Services 1,339 1,300 Elliot Lake Denture Clinic - Alain Desault 250 Health Care Services 651 700 Elliot Lake Medical Building Elnos (Various Tenants) 250 Health Care Services 30,000 30,000 Blind River Dr. F.C. Hamill Centre 250 Health Care Services 1,000 1,000 Elliot Lake Elliot Lake Family Dentistry (2nd Floor) 250 Health Care Services 1,562 1,600 Elliot Lake Elliot Lake Denture Clinic 250 Health Care Services 698 700 Subtotal - Health Care Services 35,250 35,300Elliot Lake Northern Lights Bingo Bowling 260 Entertainment 9,765 9,800 Elliot Lake Personal Training 262 Fitness & Recreational Sports Centres 3,171 3,200 Elliot Lake Yves' Place Fitness 262 Fitness & Recreational Sports Centres 1,590 1,600 Elliot Lake Hook Up Mauy Thai Boxing Studio (2nd floor) 262 Fitness & Recreational Sports Centres 530 500 Elliot Lake Reel 2 Reel Theatre 264 Motion Picture and Video Exhibition 7,366 7,400 Subtotal - Cultural, Entertainment, Recreational Services 22,422 22,500Elliot Lake KFC 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 2,660 2,700 Elliot Lake Coachman Restaurant 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 4,278 4,300 Elliot Lake Fireside Classic Grill 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 5,100 5,100 Elliot Lake Tim Hortons 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 2,976 3,000 Elliot Lake McDonalds 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 3,255 3,300 Elliot Lake New Orleans Pizza, Wings and More 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 1,302 1,300 Elliot Lake Michelles Bakery and Cafe (opening soon) 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 651 700 Elliot Lake Viking Fish and Chips 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 1,897 1,900 Elliot Lake Bankside Cafe 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 2,139 2,100 Elliot Lake C&Ts Restaurant 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 2,604 2,600 Elliot Lake Maple Restaurant Chinese Canadian 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 1,739 1,700 Elliot Lake Wil's Cove Restaurant 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 1,674 1,700 Elliot Lake Jane's Tea Garden 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 1,739 1,700 Elliot Lake DQ 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 1,339 1,300 Elliot Lake Java Jolt Cafe 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 1,339 1,300 Elliot Lake Topper Pizza 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 837 800 Elliot Lake Regie's On The Hill 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 1,674 1,700 Elliot Lake Subway 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 1,841 1,800 Subtotal - Food Services and Drinking Places 39,045 39,000Elliot Lake Top Tech Automotive Services 281 Automotive Repair & Maintenance 2,700 2,700 Subtotal - Household Goods Repair & Maintenance 2,700 2,700Elliot Lake The Chop Shop Family Hair Care 290 Personal Care Services 837 800 Elliot Lake Shear Creations 290 Personal Care Services 1,360 1,400 Elliot Lake Snips Dog Grooming 290 Personal Care Services 716 700 Elliot Lake The Vault Tattoo Studio 290 Personal Care Services 530 500 Elliot Lake First Choice Haircutters 290 Personal Care Services 977 1,000 Elliot Lake The Hair Gallery Salon 290 Personal Care Services 837 800 Elliot Lake Silent Physics Day Spa 290 Personal Care Services 837 800 Elliot Lake Barber Shop 290 Personal Care Services 446 400 Elliot Lake Attitudes Hair and Nails 290 Personal Care Services 670 700 Elliot Lake Salon for Men 290 Personal Care Services 1,395 1,400 Elliot Lake Muriel's Headquarter's Salon 290 Personal Care Services 1,674 1,700 Elliot Lake Envy Hair Studio and Spa 290 Personal Care Services 1,395 1,400 Subtotal - Personal Care Services 11,674 11,600TOTAL 392,735 392,500

Total Retail Space 216,992 216,800 Total Service Space 175,743 175,700


48

APPENDIX C – NAICS CODES

FIGURE C-1: NORTH AMERICAN INDUSTRY CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM (NAICS)

RETAIL/SERVICE STORE CLASSIFICATION (BASED ON NORTH AMERICAN INDUSTRY CLASSIFICATION (NAICS)

Group NAICS Description

90 Supermarkets

44511 Supermarkets and Other Grocery (except Convenience) Stores

100 Convenience and Specialty Food Stores 44512 Convenience Stores44521 Meat Markets44522 Fish and Seafood Markets44523 Fruit and Vegetable Markets44529 Other Specialty Food Stores, including Baked Goods Stores, & Confectionary & Nut

110 Beer, Wine and Liquor Stores44531 Beer, Wine and Liquor Stores

Automo 20 Used and Recreational Motor Vehicle and Parks Dealers (Tires, Batteries, Automotive Accessories component)

44131 Automotive Parts and Accessories Stores

44132 Tire Dealers

30 Furniture Stores44211 Furniture Stores

40 Home Furnishings Stores44221 Floor Covering Stores (excludes retailers or only ceramic or only hardwood flooring which are in Building Supply)44229 Other Home Furnishings Stores (e.g. window treatments, fireplace/accessories, kitchen and tableware, bedding and linens,

brooms and brushes, lamps and shades, and prints and picture frames).

50 Computer and Software Stores44312 Computer and Software Stores (includes retailing new computers, computer peripherals, pre-packaged software, game

60 Home Electronics and Appliance Stores44311 Appliance, Television and other Electronics Stores44313 Camera and Photographic Supplies Stores

70 Home Centres and Hardware Stores44411 Home Centres

44413 Hardware Stores (includes tool stores)

80 Specialized Building Materials and Garden Stores44412 Paint and Wallpaper Stores44419 Other Building Material Dealers (excluding manufacturing and construction firms) (includes doors, windows, kitchen

cabinets, electrical, glass, plumbing, ceramic floor, roofing materials, fencing)

44421 Outdoor Power Equipment Stores (lawn mowers, tractors, hedge trimmers, snow blowers)44422 Nursery Stores and Garden Centres

120 Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores44611 Pharmacies and Drug Stores44612 Cosmetics, Beauty Supplies and Perfume Stores44613 Optical Goods Stores44619 Other Health and Personal Care Stores (includes stores retailing health and personal care items, such as vitamin

140 Clothing Stores44811 Men's Clothing Stores44812 Women's Clothing Stores44813 Children's and Infant's Clothing Stores44814 Family Clothing Stores44819 Other Clothing Stores

NON-FOOD STORE RETAIL (NFSR)

Furniture, Home Furnishings and Electronics Stores

FOOD STORE RETAIL (FSR)

BEVERAGE STORES

Building and Outdoor Home Supplies Stores

Clothing and Accessories Stores

Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores


49

150 Shoe, Clothing Accessories and Jewellery Stores44815 Clothing Accessories Stores

44821 Shoe Stores (includes athletic shoe retailers)

44831 Jewellery Stores

44832 Luggage and Leather Goods Stores

170 Department Stores45211 Department Stores

175 45211 Department Stores with a Large food component (i.e. Walmart Supercentres)180 Other General Merchandise Stores

45291 Warehouse Clubs and Superstores45299 All Other General Merchandise Stores:

Home & Auto (i.e. Canadian Tire)Other General Merchandise Stores (e.g. general stores, variety stores, "dollar" stores)

160 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Music and Book Stores45111 Sporting Goods Stores (excludes athletic shoe retailers)45112 Hobby, Toy and Game Stores (excludes computer games and software)45113 Sewing, Needlework and Piece Goods Stores45114 Musical Instrument and Supplies Stores45121 Book Stores and News Dealers45122 Pre-Recorded Tape, Compact Disc and Record Stores

190 Miscellaneous Store 45311 Florists45321 Office Supplies and Stationery Stores45322 Gift, Novelty and Souvenir Stores45331 Used Merchandise Stores 45391 Pet and Pet Supplies Stores45392 Art Dealers (excludes art galleries)45399 All Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers (e.g. tobacco supplies, artist supplies, collectors items, beer & wine making,

200 Consumer Goods Rental53221 Consumer Electronics and Appliance (Appliance rental and leasing, rental of consumer audio-visual equipment

53222 Formal Wear and Costume Rental53223 Video Tape and Disc Rental53229 Other Rental (sporting goods, garden equipment, home health, fitness etc.)53231 General Rental Centres (including contractors' and builders' tools and equipment, home repair tools, lawn and garden

210 Finance

52211 Banks52213 Credit Unions

215 52239 Other Financial (including cheque cashing, mortgage brokers, other financial services (e.g. Edward Jones))

220 Insurance and Real Estate52421 Insurance Agencies and Brokerages 53121 Offices of Real Estate Agents and Brokers 53132 Office of Real Estate Appraisers

General Merchandise Stores

Miscellaneous Retailers

SERVICES


50

230 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services54111 Offices of Lawyers54119 Other Legal Services (e.g.. Paralegal, Title search, immigration consultation, notaries)54121 Offices of Accountants, Tax Preparation Services, Bookings, Payroll54131 Architectural Services54132 Landscape Architecture (includes urban planners, industrial development planning, landscape architects)54134 Drafting Services54137 Survey and Mapping Services54138 Testing Labs (excluding medical, auto, veterinary)54141 Interior Design Services54143 Graphic Design Services (includes art studios)54149 Other Specialized Design Services (e.g. clothing, jewellery, fashion)54151 Computer Systems Design and Related Services (e.g. computer consulting and programming)54161 Management Consulting Services 54162 Environmental Consulting Services54169 Other Scientific and Technical Consulting (e.g. economic, hydrology, safety )54171 Research & Development in the Physical, Engineering and Life Sciences (includes medical research labs)54172 Research & Development in the Social Sciences and Humanities (e.g.. demographic, education, psychology research)54181 Advertising Agencies54182 Public Relations Services (e.g. lobbyists, political consultants)54191 Marketing Research & Public opinion polling54192 Photographic Services (e.g. passport photography, photo studios portrait photography studies)54193 Translation and Interpretation Services 54194 Veterinary Services (excludes pet care (81291))54199 All Other Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (includes consumer credit counselling)

240 Selected Office Administrative Services

56131 Employment Services (includes placements, executive search, casting agencies etc.)56141 Document Preparation Services (proofreading, word processing, desktop publishing etc.)56142 Telephone Call Centres56143 Business Service Centres (e.g.. printing, copying, mail centres) (excludes commercial printing)56144 Collection Agencies 56145 Credit Bureaus

241 56151 Travel Agencies 56159 Other Travel Arrangement & Reservation Services (e.g.. ticket sales agency, tourist info, bus ticket offices, etc.)

56162Security Systems (includes security system sales, installation and monitoring; locksmiths (excluding key duplication - 81149))

245 Educational Services61161 Fine Arts Schools (e.g. dance, drama, music, art, handicrafts)61162 Athletic Instruction (e.g. aerobic dance, gymnastics, judo, karate, martial arts, scuba, swimming) (excludes athletic

61163 Language Schools61169 All Other Schools and Instruction (e.g. driving instruction, public speaking, Kumon, Oxford)

250 Health Care 63111 Offices of Physicians 62121 Offices of Dentists 62131 Offices of Chiropractors62132 Offices of Optometrists (excludes eyeglass stores - 44613)62133 Offices of Mental Health Practitioners (psychologists, psychiatric social workers)62134 Offices of Physical, Occupational, Speech Therapists and Audiologists62135 Offices of Other Health Practitioners (e.g.. acupuncturists, dental hygienists, dieticians, naturopath, podiatrists)62141 Family Planning Centres 62142 Outpatient Mental Health and Substance Abuse Centres62149 Other Outpatient Care Centres (e.g. public health clinics, hearing testing, dialysis)62151 Medical and Diagnostic Laboratories (e.g. medical, x-ray, dental lab (excluding making of dentures, ortho appliances,

teeth))


51

255 Social Services62411 Child and Youth Social Services (e.g. Children's aid, youth centres, adoption)62149 Other Individual and Family Services (e.g.. AA, marriage counselling, outreach)62441 Child Day Care

260 Cultural, Entertainment and Recreation261 71312 Amusement Arcades (e.g. indoor play areas, pinball arcades, video game arcades)

262 71394Fitness & Recreational Sports Centres (includes athletic clubs, spas (w/o accommodation), aerobic dance centres, health clubs)

263 71395 Bowling Centres264 71399 All other Amusement and Recreation Industries (includes billiards parlours)265 51213 Motion Picture and Video Exhibition (includes cinemas)

270 Food Services and Drinking Places 271 72211 Full-Service Restaurants

272 72221 Limited-Service Eating Places

273 72232 Caterers (includes banquet halls)

274 72241 Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages) -( includes night clubs, bars (including those with gaming), pubs, taverns

280 Personal and Household Goods Repair and Maintenance

28181111 Automotive Mechanical & Electrical Repair & Maintenance (includes engine repair, exhausts, transmission, electrical

system repair)

281 81112 Automotive Body, Paint, Interior and Glass Repair (includes collision repair, auto upholstery, paint & body shops)

28181119 Other Automotive Repair & Maintenance (includes auto detail, washing, diagnostic centres, lube, rust proofing,

undercoating, emissions testing)

28281121 Electronic and Precision Equipment Repair and Maintenance (includes ink jet cartridges (cleaning and refilling), TV repair)

81141 Home and Garden Equipment and Appliance Repair & Maintenance (e.g. small engine repair)

81142 Reupholstery and Furniture Repair

81143 Footwear and Leather Goods Repair (e.g. shoe repair)

28281149 Other Personal and Household Goods Repair and Maintenance (includes key cutting, china firing/decorating, jewellery

repair, sharpening of knives, skate sharpening, watch repair etc.)

290 Personal Care Services81211 Hair care and Esthetic Services (includes barber, beauty, hair salons)

81219 Other Personal Care services (includes day spa, diet centres, hair removal, massage parlours, tanning salons, tattoo parlours, weight reduction centres)

81231 Coin-operated Laundries and dry cleaners (self service)

81232 Dry Cleaning and Laundry services (except coin operated)

81233 Linen and Uniform Supply (includes work clothing supply services - industrial)

81291 Pet Care (except veterinary)

81292 Photofinishing Services

81299 All other Personal Services (e.g. fortune tellers, dating services, psychic services, shoeshine)

295 Civic and Social Organizations81341 Civic and Social Organizations (includes clubs)

81391 Business Associations (includes board of trade, real estate boards etc.)

Transportation296 49111 Postal Service (post office)

300 VACANT 9999 VACANT RETAIL/SERVICE SPACEurbanMetrics inc.


52

APPENDIX D – RETAIL ANALYSIS BACKGROUND

Figures D-1 to D-4 summarize the various inputs used in our retail market demand and impact analysis. Figure D-1 illustrates the Statistics Canada Retail Trade data used to determine per capita expenditures according to the store category. Figure D-2 illustrates the regression equations, based on the Statistics Canada Survey of Household Spending, which have been used to determine per capita NFSR and FSR expenditures. Figures D-3 and D-4 indicate the historic real growth in FSR and NFSR expenditures since 2004.


53

FIGURE D-1: STATISTICS CANADA RETAIL TRADE DATA

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54

FIGURE D-2: INCOME/EXPENDITURE REGRESSION EQUATIONS

(x) (y1) (y2)

(n)

Average Per Capita Income of Income

Quintile Income FSR NFSR

1 $11,020 35.2 97.0 72.22 $16,939 54.1 95.8 79.53 $24,067 76.9 92.1 95.14 $30,527 97.5 99.3 101.35 $56,256 179.7 110.0 129.7

All Classes $31,305 100.0 100.0 100.0

REGRESSION EQUATIONS:FSR y1 = 0.10 (x) + 90NFSR y2 = 0.40 (x) + 60Restaurant y3 = 0.57 (x) + 43Health y4= 0.06 (x) + 94

where x = income index (independent variable) and y = expenditure index for selected category (dependent variable)

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.1) Based on Statistics Canada, Survey of Household Spending in 2010, Ontario (April 2012 62F0032X)


55

FIGURE D-3: HISTORIC REAL GROWTH IN FOOD STORE RETAIL EXPENDITURES

FIGURE D-4: HISTORIC REAL GROWTH IN NON-FOOD STORE RETAIL EXPENDITURES

Per Capita FSR Expenditures (Current $) (1

Consumer Price Index (2002 Base

Year) (2

Per Capita FSR Expenditures (Constant $)

Annual Real Growth

$1,885 103.0 $1,830$1,937 106.1 $1,824 -0.3%$1,943 108.2 $1,795 -1.6%$1,994 110.6 $1,804 0.5%$2,113 115.4 $1,831 1.5%$2,193 121.4 $1,806 -1.3%$2,182 123.1 $1,772 -1.9%$2,188 129.0 $1,696 -4.3%$2,222 132.1 $1,682 -0.9%

Average Annual Real Growth, 2004 to 2012 -1.0%

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.1)

2)

Year

Statistics Canada, The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Food Purchased from Stores.

Based on Statistics Canada, Retail Trade, Publication 63-005 (NAICS). The figure for 2012 is an estimate based on Full Year data, indexed to the full year using historic data for the preceding six years for partial year data.

200420052006200720082009201020112012

Per Capita NFSR Expenditures (Current $) (1

Consumer Price Index (2002 Base

Year) (2

Per Capita NFSR Expenditures (Constant $)

Annual Real Growth

$4,757 104.1 $4,569$4,874 105.3 $4,627 1.3%$5,112 106.6 $4,795 3.6%$5,289 108.5 $4,872 1.6%$5,376 109.8 $4,894 0.4%$5,306 111.1 $4,776 -2.4%$5,499 113.4 $4,850 1.6%$5,555 115.6 $4,805 -0.9%$5,597 116.7 $4,797 -0.2%

Average Annual Real Growth, 2004 to 2012 0.6%

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.1)

2)

Based on Statistics Canada, Retail Trade, Publication 63-005 (NAICS). Includes expenditures at Automotive Parts, Accessories and Tire stores. The figure for 2012 is an estimate based on Full Year data, indexed to the full year using historic data for the preceding six years.Statistics Canada, The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Items Excluding Food and Energy.

Year

200420052006200720082009201020112012


56

APPENDIX E – CONSUMER SURVEY RESULTS

An online consumer expenditure survey of approximately 320 residents was conducted in the Trade Area in October 2012. Survey respondents were asked to identify their recent expenditures at all types of FSR and NFSR stores in order to ascertain the current shopping patterns of the inhabitants living in each zone of the Trade Area. The survey also included several general questions used to identify the demographic characteristics of each respondent.

The survey program was designed by urbanMetrics inc., while the survey software and online hosting were provided by Fluid Surveys. The results of the survey were analyzed by urbanMetrics. Figure E-1 to E-31 summarize the results of urbanMetrics online consumer survey research.

We have used the survey results to estimate the market shares and sales performance of existing retail locations and to establish the degree of outflow of Trade Area residents’ expenditures from the local market. These results have served as key inputs for urbanMetrics’ retail market demand and impact analysis.


57

FIGURE E-1: SHOPPING PATTERNS IN A TYPICAL MONTH

FIGURE E-2: DEPARTMENT STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH

YES NO TOTAL Department stores (such as Wal-Mart, Zellers or the Bay) 95% 5% 100%Warehouse membership clubs (such as Costco) 59% 41% 100%Canadian Tire 96% 4% 100%Auto Parts, Tires & Accessories (Napa Auto, XYZ Tire Shop) 33% 67% 100%General Merchandise & Dollar Stores (Giant Tiger, Dollarama, Liquidation World) 94% 6% 100%Supermarkets (Fortinos, FreshCo., Loblaws, No Frills etc) 99% 1% 100%Specialty Food Stores (meats, breads, small grocery) 74% 26% 100%Health & Personal (Drug, optical, nutrition) 95% 5% 100%Clothes, Shoes, Accessories & Jewelry stores 79% 21% 100%Furniture, Appliances & Home Fashions 41% 59% 100%Electronic, Computers, Cameras & Mobile Devices 52% 48% 100%Building & Outdoor Supply Stores (home improvement, hardware, paint & garden centres) 76% 24% 100%Specialty Stores (office supplies, sporting goods, hobby, art , book, music, florists & pet supplies) 77% 23% 100%Second Hand Merchandise Stores (charity shops, antique & consignment stores) 54% 46% 100%Restaurants (full-service & fast-food) 94% 6% 100%TOTAL 76.6% 23.4% 100%


Variable $ %Zellers (formerly in Algo Mall) $17,925 36.0% 104.22

Subtotal Other North Shore Locations $17,925 36.0% n/aSubtotal Inside Trade Area $17,925 36.0% n/a

Zellers (Sudbury) $1,915 3.8% 16.49Walmart Supercentre (Sudbury) $20,335 40.8% 135.45Zellers (Sault Saint Marie) $625 1.3% 10.42Walmart Supercentre (Sault Saint Marie) $3,700 7.4% 52.86Zellers - all other locations $500 1.0% 8.93Walmart - all other locations $4,315 8.7% 57.53The Bay - all other locations $465 0.9% 6.20

Subtotal Outside Trade Area $31,855 64.0% n/aTOTAL $49,780 100.0% n/a


SumMean


58

FIGURE E-3: COSTCO EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL THREE MONTH PERIOD

FIGURE E-4: COSTCO EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH

FIGURE E-5: AUTO PARTS, TIRES & ACCESSORIES STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH

Variable $ %Costco – Sudbury $30,765 92.4% 267.52Costco – any other location $2,515 7.6% 78.59TOTAL $33,280 100.0% n/a


MeanSum

Variable $ %Costco – Sudbury $10,255 30.8% 267.52Costco – any other location $838 2.5% 78.59TOTAL $11,093 100.0% n/a


SumMean

Variable $ %Maslack Auto Parts Store $5,895 29.0% 226.73NAPA Auto Parts $6,895 33.9% 215.47OK Tire $1,760 8.7% 110

Subtotal Elliot Lake $14,550 71.6% n/aRWAY Autoparts (Blind River) $30 0.1% 2.5NAPA Auto Parts (Blind River) $5,105 25.1% 425.42Other North Shore locations $150 0.7% 13.64


All Other Locations $475 2.3% 43.18Subtotal Outside Trade Area $475 2.3% 43.18

TOTAL $20,310 100.0% n/a


SumMean


59

FIGURE E-6: CANADIAN TIRE STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH

FIGURE E-7: OTHER GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH

FIGURE E-8: TOTAL OTHER GENERAL MERCHANDISE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH (PRIMARY

ZONE STORES ONLY)

Variable $ %Canadian Tire – Hillside Dr South $25,339 88.5% 125.19

Subtotal Inside Trade Area $25,339 88.5% n/aCanadian Tire - Sudbury $420 1.5% 7.92Canadian Tire - Sault Saint Marie $200 0.7% 3.92Canadian Tire - Espanola $1,445 5.0% 22.58Canadian Tire - all other locations $1,225 4.3% 24.5

Subtotal Outside Trade Area $3,290 11.5% 22.58TOTAL $28,629 100.0% n/a


SumMean

Variable $ %Former Dollarama $10,073 40.4% 542.23Former Bargain Shop $6,580 26.4% 58.23Elliot Lake Trading Post $1,520 6.1% 17.08Sears Appliance Lawn & Electronics Store $2,330 9.3% 33.29The Buck Stops Here Dollar Store & More $771 3.1% 9.88

Subtotal Elliot Lake $21,274 85.3% n/aDollarwise (Blind River) $258 1.0% 4.69

The Bargain Shop (Blind River) $510 2.0% 9.27Other North Shore Locations $525 2.1% 10.94


All Other Locations $2,365 9.5% 40.08Subtotal Outside Trade Area $2,365 9.5% n/a

TOTAL $24,932 100.0% n/a


SumMean

Variable $ %Former Dollarama $10,073 21.6% 542.23Former Bargain Shop $6,580 14.1% 58.23Elliot Lake Trading Post $1,520 3.3% 17.08Sears Appliance Lawn & Electronics Store $2,330 5.0% 33.29The Buck Stops Here Dollar Store & More $771 1.7% 9.88Canadian Tire $25,339 54.4% 125.19Subtotal Elliot Lake $46,613 100% n/a


SumMean


60

FIGURE E-9: SUPERMARKET EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH

FIGURE E-10: CONVENIENCE AND SPECIALTY FOOD STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH

Variable $ %Foodland $33,490 33.7% 176.26No Frills $60,302 60.7% 279.18

Subtotal Elliot Lake $93,792 94.5% n/aHutton's Valu Mart (Blind River) $1,740 1.8% 29

Subtotal Other North Shore Locatio $1,740 1.8% n/aSubtotal Inside Trade Area $95,532 96.2% n/a

All other locations $3,740 3.8% 58.44Subtotal Outside Trade Area $3,740 3.8% n/a

TOTAL $99,272 100.0% n/a


SumMean

Variable $ %Elliot Lake Meats & Deli $7,397 51.3% 57.34M&M Meat Shop $3,195 22.2% 31.95Hillside Shop & Save $1,185 8.2% 19.43Breen Coffee Roasters $815 5.7% 18.52

Subtotal Elliot Lake $12,592 87.3% n/aBarrel of Goodies Bulk Food (Blind River) $55 0.4% 1.62No Name Variety (Blind River) n/a n/a n/aM&M Meat Shop (Blind River) $55 0.4% 1.62Kwik Way (Blind River) $175 1.2% 4.86Nyman's Fish Shop (Blind River) $90 0.6% 2.5Other North Shore Locations $375 2.6% 10.42

Subtotal Other North Shore Locations $750 5.2% n/aSubtotal Inside Trade Area $13,342 92.5% n/a

All Other Locations $1,075 7.5% 25.6Subtotal Outside Trade Area $1,075 7.5% n/a

TOTAL $14,417 100.0% n/a


SumMean


61

FIGURE E-11: PHARMACY & PERSONAL CARE STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH

FIGURE E-12: APPAREL & ACCESSORIES STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL THREE MONTH PERIOD

Variable $ %Shopper's Drug Mart $19,912 60.3% 101.08Rexall $6,003 18.2% 49.61Elliot Lake Pharma Choice $1,368 4.1% 22.06Remedy Rx $1,345 4.1% 21.69Natural Food & Therapies $1,336 4.0% 19.94Lyrettes Opticians $1,470 4.5% 26.73

Subtotal Elliot Lake $31,434 95.2% n/aIDA Mitchell Pharmacy (Blind River) $190 0.6% 3.52Algoma Hearing Centre (Blind River) n/a n/a n/aLyrettes Opticians (Blind River) $55 0.2% 1.08Sault Optometry Clinic (Blind River) $80 0.2% 1.60Other North Shore Locations $540 1.6% 9.82


All other locations $725 2.2% 13.43Subtotal Outside Trade Area $725 2.2% n/a

TOTAL $33,024 100.0% n/a


SumMean

Variable $ %Kevin's Custom Clothiers $375 1.9% 8.52Saarich's Source for Sports $8,855 44.4% 110.69Elliot Lake Jewellers $1,235 6.2% 23.3Tin Can Alley Family Footwear $1,510 7.6% 30.2

Subtotal Elliot Lake $11,975 60.0% n/aHagger's Family Clothing (Blind River) $1,480 7.4% 30.2Other North Shore Locations $1,015 5.1% 22.56



TOTAL $19,950 100.0% n/a


SumMean


62

FIGURE E-13: APPAREL & ACCESSORIES STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH

FIGURE E-14: CALIBRATED SURVEY RESULTS (PRIMARY ZONE STORES ONLY) – APPAREL &

ACCESSORIES STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH

Variable $ %Kevin's Custom Clothiers $125 1.9% n/aSaarich's Source for Sports $2,952 44.4% n/aElliot Lake Jewellers $412 6.2% n/aTin Can Alley Family Footwear $503 7.6% n/a

Subtotal Elliot Lake $3,992 60.0% n/a

Hagger's Family Clothing (Blind River) $493 7.4% n/aOther North Shore Locations $338 5.1% n/a


All other locations $1,827 27.5% n/aSubtotal Outside Trade Area $1,827 27.5% n/a

TOTAL $6,650 100.0% n/a


SumMean

Kevin's Custom Clothiers 1.9% $0.14 3.1% 7.5% $0.15 1,535 $100.61Saarich's Source for Sports 44.4% $3.37 73.9% 7.5% $3.65 1,925 $1,894.47Elliot Lake Jewellers 6.2% $0.47 10.3% 7.5% $0.51 791 $643.01Tin Can Alley Family Footwear 7.6% $0.58 12.6% 7.5% $0.62 1,562 $398.13TOTAL 60.0% $4.56 100.0% $4.93 5,813 $848.41

Kevin's Custom Clothiers 6.5% $0.49 10.8% 7.5% $0.53 1,535 $347.92Saarich's Source for Sports 35.0% $2.66 58.3% 7.5% $2.88 1,925 $1,493.86Elliot Lake Jewellers 7.5% $0.57 12.5% 7.5% $0.62 791 $779.03Tin Can Alley Family Footwear 11.0% $0.84 18.3% 7.5% $0.90 1,562 $578.61

TOTAL 60.0% $4.56 100.0% 30.0% $4.93 5,813 $848.05


Location

Location Sales Per SQFTCALIBRATED Market Share

Expenditure Potential ($Millions) Inflow

Total Sales ($Millions) SQFT

Market Share InflowTotal Sales ($Millions) SQFT Sales Per SQFT

Expenditure Potential ($Millions)

Local Market Share

Local Market Share


63

FIGURE E-15: FURNITURE, HOME FURNISHINGS, APPLIANCE STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL SIX

MONTH PERIOD

FIGURE E-16: FURNITURE, HOME FURNISHINGS, APPLIANCE STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL

MONTH

FIGURE E-17: ELECTRONICS STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL SIX MONTH PERIOD

Variable $ %Seidel's $21,171 60.9% 641.55Lobek Carpet $1,300 3.7% 76.47

Subtotal Elliot Lake $22,471 64.7% n/aFern's Carpet (Blind River) $4,340 12.5% 255.29Other North Shore Locations $3,145 9.0% 174.72



TOTAL $34,756 100.0% n/a


SumMean

Variable $ %Seidel's $7,057 20.3% n/aLobek Carpet $433 1.2% n/a

Subtotal Elliot Lake $7,490 21.6% n/aFern's Carpet (Blind River) $1,447 4.2% n/aOther North Shore Locations $1,048 3.0% n/a



TOTAL $11,585 33.3% n/a


SumMean

Variable $ %Computer FX $4,245 23.2% 157.22The Source by Circuit City $7,989 43.7% 103.75Appliance Brocker n/a n/a n/a

Subtotal Elliot Lake $12,234 66.9% n/aOther North Shore Locations $530 2.9% 20.38



TOTAL $18,294 100.0% n/a


SumMean


64

FIGURE E-18: ELECTRONICS STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH

FIGURE E-19: FURNITURE, HOME FURNISHINGS, APPLIANCE & ELECTRONICS STORE EXPENDITURES IN

A TYPICAL MONTH

Variable $ %Computer FX $1,415 7.7% n/aThe Source by Circuit City $2,663 14.6% n/aAppliance Brocker n/a n/a n/a

Subtotal Elliot Lake $4,078 22.3% n/aOther North Shore Locations $177 1.0% n/a



TOTAL $6,098 33.3% n/a


SumMean

Variable $ %Seidel's $7,057 39.9% n/aLobek Carpet $433 2.5% n/aComputer FX $1,415 8.0% n/aThe Source by Circuit City $2,663 15.1% n/aAppliance Brocker n/a n/a n/a


Fern's Carpet (Blind River) $1,447 8.2% n/aFurnishings - Other North Shore Locations $1,048 5.9% n/aElectronics - Other North Shore Locations $177 1.0% n/a


Furnishings - All other locations $1,600 9.0% n/aElectronics - All other locations $1,843 10.4% n/a



SumMean


65

FIGURE E-20: BUILDING AND OUTDOOR HOME SUPPLIES STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH

FIGURE E-21: CALIBRATED SURVEY RESULTS (PRIMARY ZONE STORES ONLY) – BUILDING AND

OUTDOOR HOME SUPPLIES STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH

Variable $ %Soo Mills $15,785 59.3% 148.92RONA $7,385 27.7% 76.93Para Paints $40 0.2% 1.33Elliot Lake Textile & Drapery $371 1.4% 10.31


Home Hardware (Blind River) $1,325 5.0% 28.8Other North Shore Locations $175 0.7% 5.65



TOTAL $26,616 100.0% n/a


SumMean

Soo Mills 59.3% $6.64 66.9% 7.5% $7.18 20,000 $359.04RONA 27.7% $3.11 31.3% 7.5% $3.36 7,699 $436.36Para Paints 0.2% $0.02 0.2% 7.5% $0.02 1,116 $16.31Elliot Lake Textile & Drapery 1.4% $0.16 1.6% 7.5% $0.17 1,116 $151.23TOTAL 88.6% $9.92 100.0% $10.73 29,931 $358.41

Subtotal Inside Trade Area 59.1% $6.62 66.7% 7.5% $7.16 20,000 $357.79All other locations 25.5% $2.86 28.8% 7.5% $3.09 12,000 $257.30Subtotal Outside Trade Area 1.5% $0.17 1.7% 7.5% $0.18 1,116 $162.74TOTAL 2.5% $0.28 2.8% 7.5% $0.30 1,116 $271.24

TOTAL 88.6% $9.92 100.0% $10.73 34,232 $313.38


Location

Market ShareExpenditure Potential

($Millions) InflowTotal Sales ($Millions) SQFT Sales Per SQFT

Local Market ShareLocation

Sales Per SQFTCALIBRATED Market Share


Total Sales ($Millions) SQFT

Local Market Share


66

FIGURE E-22: SPECIALTY STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH

FIGURE E-23: USE MERCHANDISE STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH

Variable $ %Cellar Guitars $57 0.5% 1.5Pet Valu $3,767 32.6% 43.3Pet Headquarters $1,213 10.5% 22.46Debyes Pets $1,460 12.6% 27.55Office Supplies (Prince Edward Walk) $680 5.9% 13.6Quality Flowers & Gifts $498 4.3% 10.83

Subtotal Elliot Lake $7,675 66.4% n/aThe Birch Tree Gifts (Blind River) $35 0.3% 0.92Michou's County Treasures (Blind River) $10 0.1% 0.28Union Stationary (Blind River) $55 0.5% 1.53Northern County Flowers (Blind River) $135 1.2% 3.65Me & You Wine & Brew $1,475 12.8% 29.5Finn & Friends Art & Glass Studio n/a n/a n/aOther North Shore Locations $260 2.3% 6.67



TOTAL $11,555 100.0% n/a


SumMean

Variable $ %Electronics Plus New & Refurbished Items n/a n/a n/aThe Store (Buy, Sell, Trade) $20 0.6% 0.83St. Vincent de Paul $1,456 40.1% 20.51Salvation Army $837 23.1% 14.95You Save Furniture Second Hand $197 5.4% 7.30

Subtotal Elliot Lake $2,510 69.1% n/aDorca's House Thrift Shop (Blind River) $40 1.1% 1.67Other North Shore Locations $240 6.6% 8.00


All other locations $840 23.1% 24.00Subtotal Outside Trade Area $840 23.1% n/a

TOTAL $3,630 100.0% n/a


SumMean


67

FIGURE E-24: TOTAL MISCELLANEOUS STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH

Variable $ %Cellar Guitars $57 0.4% 1.5Pet Valu $3,767 24.8% 43.3Pet Headquarters $1,213 8.0% 22.46Debyes Pets $1,460 9.6% 27.55Office Supplies (Prince Edward Walk) $680 4.5% 13.6Quality Flowers & Gifts $498 3.3% 10.83Electronics Plus New & Refurbished Items n/a n/a n/aThe Store (Buy, Sell, Trade) $20 0.1% 0.83St. Vincent de Paul $1,456 9.6% 20.51Salvation Army $837 5.5% 14.95You Save Furniture Second Hand $197 1.3% 7.30

Subtotal Elliot Lake $10,185 67.1% n/aThe Birch Tree Gifts (Blind River) $35 0.2% 0.92Michou's County Treasures (Blind River) $10 0.1% 0.28Union Stationary (Blind River) $55 0.4% 1.53Northern County Flowers (Blind River) $135 0.9% 3.65Me & You Wine & Brew $1,475 9.7% 29.5Finn & Friends Art & Glass Studio n/a n/a n/aOther North Shore Locations $260 1.7% 6.67Dorca's House Thrift Shop (Blind River) $40 0.3% 1.67Other North Shore Locations $240 1.6% 8.00


All other locations - Specialty $1,910 12.6% 36.04All other locations - 2nd Hand $840 5.5% 24.00



SumMean


68

FIGURE E-25: CALIBRATED SURVEY RESULTS (PRIMARY ZONE STORES ONLY) – TOTAL

MISCELLANEOUS STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH

Cellar Guitars 0.4% $0.02 0.6% 15% $0.02 446 $48.52Pet Valu 24.8% $1.22 37.0% 15% $1.43 1,050 $1,361.97Pet Headquarters 8.0% $0.39 11.9% 15% $0.46 1,302 $353.68Debyes Pets 9.6% $0.47 14.3% 15% $0.55 781 $709.68Office Supplies (Prince Edward Walk) 4.5% $0.22 6.7% 15% $0.26 1,302 $198.27Quality Flowers & Gifts 3.3% $0.16 4.9% 15% $0.19 558 $338.81Electronics Plus New & Refurbished Items 0.0% $0.00 0.0% 15% $0.00 781 $0.00The Store (Buy, Sell, Trade) 0.1% $0.01 0.2% 15% $0.01 837 $9.07St. Vincent de Paul 9.6% $0.47 14.3% 15% $0.55 1,590 $347.64Salvation Army 5.5% $0.27 8.2% 15% $0.32 530 $599.53You Save Furniture Second Hand 1.3% $0.06 1.9% 15% $0.07 446 $167.68TOTAL 67.1% $4.90 100.0% $3.87 9,623 $401.80

Cellar Guitars 2.0% $0.10 3.0% 15% $0.12 446 $258.51Pet Valu 12.0% $0.59 17.9% 15% $0.69 1,050 $658.82Pet Headquarters 8.0% $0.39 11.9% 15% $0.46 1,302 $353.68Debyes Pets 8.2% $0.40 12.2% 15% $0.47 781 $605.26Office Supplies (Prince Edward Walk) 6.0% $0.29 8.9% 15% $0.35 1,302 $265.65Quality Flowers & Gifts 3.3% $0.16 4.9% 15% $0.19 558 $338.81Electronics Plus New & Refurbished Items 5.0% $0.25 7.5% 15% $0.29 781 $369.06The Store (Buy, Sell, Trade) 5.0% $0.25 7.5% 15% $0.29 837 $344.37St. Vincent de Paul 9.6% $0.47 14.3% 15% $0.55 1,590 $347.64Salvation Army 5.5% $0.27 8.2% 15% $0.32 530 $599.53You Save Furniture Second Hand 2.5% $0.12 3.7% 15% $0.14 446 $323.13TOTAL 67.1% $4.90 100.0% $3.87 9,623 $401.77


Location

Total Sales ($Millions) SQFT Sales Per SQFT

CALIBRATED Market Share


Total Sales ($Millions) SQFT Sales Per SQFT

InflowLocal Market

Share

Local Market Share

Market ShareExpenditure Potential

($Millions)Location


69

FIGURE E-26: RESTAURANT EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH

FIGURE E-27: TYPICAL HOUSEHOLD SIZE

Variable $ %KFC $1,593 3.7% 17.13Coachman Restaurant $788 1.8% 12.51Fireside Classic Grill $9,718 22.5% 70.42Tim Hortons $7,414 17.2% 40.74McDonalds $4,268 9.9% 28.45New Orleans Pizza, Wings & More $647 1.5% 9.8Michelles Bakery and Cafe $160 0.4% 3.08Viking Fish & Chips $1,558 3.6% 16.75Bankside Cafe $45 0.1% 0.87C&Ts Restaurant $526 1.2% 8.62Maple Restaurant Chinese Canadian $865 2.0% 12.72Wil's Cove Restaurant $1,279 3.0% 19.09Jane's Tea Garden $1,360 3.1% 18.63Dairy Queen $1,200 2.8% 17.14Java Jolt Cafe $117 0.3% 2.02Topper Pizza $3,090 7.2% 25.54Regie's On the Hill $1,565 3.6% 20.87Subway $2,939 6.8% 21.93

Subtotal Elliot Lake $39,132 90.6% n/aOther North Shore Locations $1,470 3.4% 24.5



TOTAL $43,187 100.0% n/a


SumMean

# %1 42 15.8%

2 145 54.7%

3 31 11.7%

4 28 10.6%5 12 4.5%6 6 2.3%

n/a 1 0.4%TOTAL 265 100.0%


Survey ResultsNumber of Residents Per

15.8%

54.7%

11.7%

10.6%

4.5%

2.3%

0.4%

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0%

1

2

3

4

5

6

n/a

Residents Per Household

Residents Per Household


70

FIGURE E-28: AGE OF SURVEY RESPONDENTS

FIGURE E-29: GENDER OF SURVEY RESPONDENTS

FIGURE E-30: NFSR DISTRIBUTION

Response Percentage CountUnder 25 4% 1125-34 8% 2635-44 12% 3645-54 20% 6255-64 29% 8965-74 22% 7075 and over 6% 18Total Responses 312

Response Percentage CountMale 27% 85Female 73% 225Total Responses 310

$ %Health and personal care stores $33,024 14.1% 17.1%Clothing and clothing accessories stores $6,650 2.8% 13.9%Furniture and home furnishings stores & Electronics and appliance stores $17,683 7.6% 14.7%Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers $26,791 11.5% 13.1%Other General merchandise stores $64,554 27.6% 14.2%Department stores $49,780 21.3% 14.8%Automotive parts, accessories and tire stores $20,310 8.7% 2.1%Other NFSR $15,185 6.5% 10.0%TOTAL ALL NFSR STORES $233,977 100.0% 100.0%

$ Millions %Health and personal care stores $13.8 15.6%Clothing and clothing accessories stores $7.4 8.4%Furniture and home furnishings stores & Electronics and appliance stores $9.8 11.1%Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers $10.8 12.3%General merchandise stores $18.4 20.9%Department stores $15.9 18.0%Automotive parts, accessories and tire stores $4.8 5.4%Other NFSR $7.3 8.2%TOTAL ALL NFSR STORES $88.2 100.0%

TOTAL NFSR EXPENDITURES 2012 ($ Millions) $88.2


2011 Provincial Distribution

Store CategoryTOTAL EXPENDITURES (Weighted)

Store CategoryTOTAL EXPENDITURES (Not Weighted)


71

FIGURE E-31: FSR DISTRIBUTION

$ Millions %Supermarkets (Fortinos, FreshCo., Loblaws, No Frills etc) $99,272 87.3% 87.4%Specialty Food Stores (meats, breads, small grocery) $14,417 12.7% 12.6%TOTAL ALL FSR STORES $113,689 100.0% 100.0%

$ Millions %Supermarkets (Fortinos, FreshCo., Loblaws, No Frills etc) $33.5 87.4%Specialty Food Stores (meats, breads, small grocery) $4.8 12.6%TOTAL ALL FSR STORES $38.3 100.0%

TOTAL FSR EXPENDITURES 2012 ($ Millions) $38.3


Store CategoryTOTAL

Store CategoryTOTAL 2011 Provincial

Distribution


72

APPENDIX F – RETAIL IMPACT ANALYSIS

Figures E-1 to E-7 summarize our retail market impact analysis for the following FSR and NFSR categories:

• Supermarkets; • Building and Outdoor Home Supplies Stores; • Pharmacy and Personal Care Stores; • Clothing and Accessories Stores; • Furniture, Home Furnishings and Electronics Stores; • General Merchandise Stores; and • Miscellaneous Retail Stores.


73

FIGURE E-1: SUPERMARKET IMPACT ANALYSIS

Sales From Study Area Residents

($Millions) (1

Percent Market Share in

Primary Zone(1Plus Inflow Estimate (2 TOTAL SALES

Square Footage

Sales Per Square Foot

LevelsChange from

Base Year

2011TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 28.9 100.0% 10.0% $ 32.1 60,816 $ 528

No Frills $ 18.6 64.3% 10.0% $ 20.6 34,010 $ 607Foodland (Former) $ 10.3 35.7% 10.0% $ 11.5 26,806 $ 428


No Frills $ 17.0 56.8% 10.0% $ 18.9 34,010 $ 557 -8.3%Foodland (Former) $ - 0.0% 10.0% $ - - $ - 0.0%

Total Existing $ 17.0 56.8% 10.0% $ 18.9 34,010 $ 557 5.4%

Proposed:Foodland (Reconstruction) $ 13.0 43.2% 7.5% $ 14.0 28,000 $ 500

Total Proposed $ 13.0 43.2% 7.5% $ 14.0 28,000 $ 500



Total Existing $ 17.3 57.1% 10.0% $ 19.2 34,010 $ 564 6.7%


Total Proposed $ 13.0 42.9% 7.5% $ 14.0 28,000 $ 500



Total Existing $ 18.1 58.2% 10.0% $ 20.1 34,010 $ 590 11.7%


Total Proposed $ 13.0 41.8% 7.5% $ 14.0 28,000 $ 500


No Frills $ 18.7 59.0% 10.0% $ 20.7 34,010 $ 609 0.4%Foodland (Former) $ - 0.0% 10.0% $ - - $ - 0.0%

Total Existing $ 18.7 59.0% 10.0% $ 20.7 34,010 $ 609 15.4%


Total Proposed $ 13.0 41.0% 7.5% $ 14.0 28,000 $ 500


No Frills $19.20 59.7% 10.0% $ 21.3 34,010 $ 627 3.3%Foodland (Former) $ - 0.0% 10.0% $ - - $ - 0.0%

Total Existing $ 19.2 59.7% 10.0% $ 21.3 34,010 $ 627 18.8%


Total Proposed $ 13.0 40.3% 7.5% $ 14.0 28,000 $ 500

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.1) Market share is based on the results of our online consumer telephone survey.2) urbanMetrics estimates.


74

FIGURE E-2: BUILDING AND OUTDOOR HOME SUPPLIES STORE IMPACT ANALYSIS


($Millions) (1

Percent Market Share in Primary Zone(1

Plus Inflow Estimate (2 TOTAL SALES

Square Footage


LevelsChange from

Base Year


Soo Mills $ 5.8 66.7% 10.0% $ 6.4 20,000 $ 322RONA $ 2.5 28.8% 10.0% $ 2.8 7,699 $ 362

Para Paints $ 0.1 1.7% 10.0% $ 0.2 1,116 $ 147Elliot Lake Textile and Drapery $ 0.2 2.8% 10.0% $ 0.3 1,116 $ 243


Soo Mills $ 5.5 58.8% 10.0% $ 6.1 20,000 $ 304 -5.8%RONA (Expansion) $ 2.4 25.4% 10.0% $ 2.6 12,000 $ 219 -39.6%

Para Paints $ 0.1 1.5% 10.0% $ 0.2 1,116 $ 139 -5.8%Elliot Lake Textile and Drapery $ 0.2 2.5% 10.0% $ 0.3 1,116 $ 228 -5.8%

Total Existing $ 8.2 88.1% 10.0% $ 9.1 34,232 $ 266 -17.6%

Proposed:Elliot Lake - General Location(s) $ 1.1 11.9% 10.0% $ 1.2 5,000 $ 246

Total Proposed $ 1.1 11.9% 10.0% $ 1.2 5,000 $ 246


Soo Mills $ 5.7 59.0% 10.0% $ 6.3 20,000 $ 315 -2.4%RONA (Expansion) $ 2.4 25.5% 10.0% $ 2.7 12,000 $ 227 -37.4%

Para Paints $ 0.1 1.5% 10.0% $ 0.2 1,116 $ 144 -2.4%Elliot Lake Textile and Drapery $ 0.2 2.5% 10.0% $ 0.3 1,116 $ 237 -2.4%

Total Existing $ 8.5 88.5% 10.0% $ 9.4 34,232 $ 276 -14.6%


Total Proposed $ 1.1 11.5% 10.0% $ 1.2 5,000 $ 246


Soo Mills $ 6.1 58.5% 10.0% $ 6.8 20,000 $ 338 4.9%RONA (Expansion) $ 2.6 25.3% 10.0% $ 2.9 12,000 $ 243 -32.7%

Para Paints $ 0.2 1.5% 10.0% $ 0.2 1,116 $ 154 4.9%Elliot Lake Textile and Drapery $ 0.3 2.5% 10.0% $ 0.3 1,116 $ 254 4.9%

Total Existing $ 9.1 87.7% 10.0% $ 10.1 34,232 $ 296 -8.3%


Total Proposed $ 1.3 12.3% 10.0% $ 1.4 5,000 $ 283




Total Existing $ 9.9 88.0% 10.0% $ 11.0 34,232 $ 323 -0.1%


Total Proposed $ 1.4 12.0% 10.0% $ 1.5 5,000 $ 302




Total Existing $ 10.5 87.2% 10.0% $ 11.6 34,232 $ 340 5.1%


Total Proposed $ 1.5 12.8% 10.0% $ 1.7 5,000 $ 340



75

FIGURE E-3: PHARMACIES AND PERSONAL CARE STORE IMPACT ANALYSIS


($Millions) (1



Square Footage


LevelsChange from

Base Year


Shoppers Drug Mart $ 7.8 63.3% 10.0% $ 8.7 18,860 $ 459Rexall $ 2.3 19.1% 10.0% $ 2.6 9,440 $ 277

Freitags Remedy Rx Pharmacy $ 0.5 4.4% 10.0% $ 0.6 3,162 $ 190Natural Food and Therapies $ 0.5 4.3% 10.0% $ 0.6 1,339 $ 439

Lyrettes Opticians $ 0.5 4.2% 10.0% $ 0.6 750 $ 765Elliot Lake Pharma Choice $ 0.6 4.7% 10.0% $ 0.6 2,678 $ 240


Shoppers Drug Mart $ 8.4 58.6% 10.0% $ 9.4 18,860 $ 497 8.3%Rexall $ 2.5 17.7% 10.0% $ 2.8 9,440 $ 299 8.3%

Freitags Remedy Rx Pharmacy $ 0.6 4.1% 10.0% $ 0.7 3,162 $ 206 8.3%Natural Food and Therapies $ 0.6 4.0% 10.0% $ 0.6 1,339 $ 475 8.3%

Lyrettes Opticians $ 0.6 3.9% 10.0% $ 0.6 750 $ 829 8.3%Elliot Lake Pharma Choice $ 0.6 4.3% 10.0% $ 0.7 2,678 $ 260 8.3%

Total Existing $ 13.3 92.5% 10.0% $ 14.8 36,230 $ 409 8.3%

Proposed:Pearson Plaza $ 1.1 7.5% 10.0% $ 1.2 2,000 $ 600

Total Proposed $ 1.1 7.5% 10.0% $ 1.2 2,000 $ 600





Total Existing $ 13.6 92.7% 10.0% $ 15.1 36,230 $ 418 10.7%


Total Proposed $ 1.1 7.3% 10.0% $ 1.2 2,000 $ 600





Total Existing $ 14.8 92.7% 10.0% $ 16.5 36,230 $ 455 20.6%


Total Proposed $ 1.2 7.3% 10.0% $ 1.3 2,000 $ 650





Total Existing $ 15.9 93.2% 10.0% $ 17.7 36,230 $ 489 29.5%


Total Proposed $ 1.2 6.8% 10.0% $ 1.3 2,000 $ 650




Lyrettes Opticians $ 0.7 3.9% 10.0% $ 0.8 750 $ 1,058 38.3%Elliot Lake Pharma Choice $ 0.8 4.4% 10.0% $ 0.9 2,678 $ 332 38.3%

Total Existing $ 17.0 93.1% 10.0% $ 18.9 36,230 $ 522 38.3%


Total Proposed $ 1.3 6.9% 10.0% $ 1.4 2,000 $ 700



76

FIGURE E-4: CLOTHING AND ACCESSORIES STORE IMPACT ANALYSIS


($Millions) (1



Square Footage


LevelsChange from

Base Year


Kevin's Custom Clothiers $ 0.5 10.9% 10.0% $ 0.5 1,535 $ 355Elliot Lake Jewelers $ 0.6 12.5% 10.0% $ 0.6 791 $ 790

Tin Can Alley Family Footwear $ 0.8 18.3% 10.0% $ 0.9 1,562 $ 586Saarich's Source For Sports $ 2.6 58.3% 10.0% $ 2.9 1,925 $ 1,514


Kevin's Custom Clothiers $ 0.5 7.0% 10.0% $ 0.5 1,535 $ 336 -5.3%Elliot Lake Jewelers $ 0.5 8.1% 10.0% $ 0.6 791 $ 748 -5.3%

Tin Can Alley Family Footwear $ 0.8 11.8% 10.0% $ 0.9 1,562 $ 555 -5.3%Saarich's Source For Sports $ 2.5 37.6% 10.0% $ 2.8 1,925 $ 1,434 -5.3%

Total Existing $ 4.3 64.5% 10.0% $ 4.7 5,813 $ 814 -5.3%


Total Proposed $ 2.3 35.5% 10.0% $ 2.6 8,600 $ 302


Kevin's Custom Clothiers $ 0.5 6.9% 10.0% $ 0.5 1,535 $ 337 -5.1%Elliot Lake Jewelers $ 0.5 8.0% 10.0% $ 0.6 791 $ 750 -5.1%

Tin Can Alley Family Footwear $ 0.8 11.7% 10.0% $ 0.9 1,562 $ 556 -5.1%Saarich's Source For Sports $ 2.5 37.2% 10.0% $ 2.8 1,925 $ 1,437 -5.1%

Total Existing $ 4.3 63.7% 10.0% $ 4.7 5,813 $ 816 -5.1%


Total Proposed $ 2.4 36.3% 10.0% $ 2.7 8,600 $ 314


Kevin's Custom Clothiers $ 0.5 6.9% 10.0% $ 0.6 1,535 $ 362 2.0%Elliot Lake Jewelers $ 0.6 8.0% 10.0% $ 0.6 791 $ 806 2.0%

Tin Can Alley Family Footwear $ 0.8 11.7% 10.0% $ 0.9 1,562 $ 598 2.0%Saarich's Source For Sports $ 2.7 37.2% 10.0% $ 3.0 1,925 $ 1,545 2.0%

Total Existing $ 4.6 63.8% 10.0% $ 5.1 5,813 $ 877 2.0%


Total Proposed $ 2.6 36.3% 10.0% $ 2.9 8,600 $ 337




Total Existing $ 4.9 63.1% 10.0% $ 5.5 5,813 $ 940 9.3%


Total Proposed $ 2.9 36.9% 10.0% $ 3.2 8,600 $ 372




Total Existing $ 5.2 63.0% 10.0% $ 5.8 5,813 $ 998 16.0%


Total Proposed $ 3.1 37.0% 10.0% $ 3.4 8,600 $ 395



77

FIGURE E-5: FURNITURE, HOME FURNISHINGS AND ELECTRONICS IMPACT ANALYSIS


($Millions) (1



Square Footage


LevelsChange from

Base Year


Seidel's $ 3.8 61.0% 15.0% $ 4.5 17,112 $ 264Lobek Carpet $ 0.2 3.8% 15.0% $ 0.3 2,500 $ 113Computer FX $ 0.8 12.2% 15.0% $ 0.9 930 $ 972

The Source-Circuit City $ 1.4 23.0% 15.0% $ 1.7 1,302 $ 1,309Appliance Broker $ - 0.0% 15.0% $ - 3,100 $ -


Seidel's $ 4.7 70.0% 15.0% $ 5.5 17,112 $ 322 22.0%Lobek Carpet $ 0.4 6.6% 15.0% $ 0.5 2,500 $ 208 84.7%Computer FX $ 0.3 5.0% 15.0% $ 0.4 930 $ 424 -56.4%

The Source-Circuit City $ - 0.0% 15.0% $ - - $ - 0.0%Appliance Broker $ 0.5 7.0% 15.0% $ 0.6 3,100 $ 178 n/a

Total Existing $ 5.9 88.6% 15.0% $ 7.0 23,642 $ 295 -0.6%


Total Proposed $ 0.8 11.4% 15.0% $ 0.9 2,500 $ 360




Total Existing $ 6.1 88.9% 15.0% $ 7.2 23,642 $ 305 2.7%


Total Proposed $ 0.8 11.1% 15.0% $ 0.9 2,500 $ 360




Total Existing $ 6.5 89.5% 15.0% $ 7.7 23,642 $ 325 9.4%


Total Proposed $ 0.8 10.5% 15.0% $ 0.9 2,500 $ 360




Total Existing $ 7.1 90.3% 15.0% $ 8.4 23,642 $ 355 19.5%


Total Proposed $ 0.8 9.7% 15.0% $ 0.9 2,500 $ 360




Total Existing $ 7.7 90.9% 15.0% $ 9.0 23,642 $ 382 28.5%


Total Proposed $ 0.8 9.1% 15.0% $ 0.9 2,500 $ 360



78

FIGURE E-6: GENERAL MERHCNANDISE STORE IMPACT ANALYSIS


($Millions) (1



Square Footage


LevelsChange from

Base Year


Dollarama (former) $ 3.4 21.6% 15.0% $ 4.0 6,832 $ 580The Bargain Shop (former) $ 2.2 14.1% 15.0% $ 2.6 11,114 $ 233

Elliot Lake Trading Post $ 0.5 3.3% 15.0% $ 0.6 5,100 $ 119Canadian Tire $ 8.5 54.4% 15.0% $ 10.0 22,000 $ 454

Sears -Appliance Lawn Electronics $ 0.8 5.0% 15.0% $ 0.9 8,221 $ 112The Buck Stops Here Dollar Store and More $ 0.2 1.6% 15.0% $ 0.3 446 $ 658


Dollarama (former) $ - 0.0% 15.0% $ - - $ - 0.0%The Bargain Shop (former) $ - 0.0% 15.0% $ - - $ - 0.0%

Elliot Lake Trading Post $ 0.8 3.3% 15.0% $ 0.9 5,100 $ 186 56.8%Canadian Tire $ 13.4 54.7% 15.0% $ 15.8 22,000 $ 716 57.8%

Sears -Appliance Lawn Electronics $ 1.2 4.8% 15.0% $ 1.4 8,221 $ 168 50.8%The Buck Stops Here Dollar Store and More $ 0.4 1.7% 15.0% $ 0.5 446 $ 1,086 64.9%

Total Existing $ 15.8 64.4% 15.0% $ 18.6 35,767 $ 519 1.2%


Total Proposed $ 8.7 35.4% 15.0% $ 10.2 25,600 $ 398





Total Existing $ 16.4 64.5% 15.0% $ 19.3 35,767 $ 539 5.0%


Total Proposed $ 8.9 35.3% 15.0% $ 10.5 25,600 $ 410





Total Existing $ 17.8 64.7% 15.0% $ 20.9 35,767 $ 585 14.1%


Total Proposed $ 9.6 35.1% 15.0% $ 11.3 25,600 $ 441





Total Existing $ 19.2 65.4% 15.0% $ 22.6 35,767 $ 632 23.1%


Total Proposed $ 10.2 34.7% 15.0% $ 12.0 25,600 $ 469





Total Existing $ 20.6 63.5% 15.0% $ 24.2 35,767 $ 677 31.9%


Total Proposed $ 10.9 34.6% 15.0% $ 12.8 25,600 $ 500



79

FIGURE E-7: MISCELLANEOUS RETAIL STORE IMPACT ANALYSIS


($Millions) (1



Square Footage


LevelsChange from

Base Year

2011Total Proposed $ 3.1 100.0% 5.0% $ 3.3 9,625 $ 339

Pet Value $ 1.1 37.0% 5.0% $ 1.2 1,050 $ 1,150Pet Headquarters $ 0.4 11.9% 5.0% $ 0.4 1,302 $ 298

Electronics Plus New Refurbished and Used Items $ - 0.0% 5.0% $ - 781 $ -Debyes Pets $ 0.4 14.3% 5.0% $ 0.5 781 $ 599

Office Supplies $ 0.2 6.7% 5.0% $ 0.2 1,302 $ 167Quality Flowers and Gifts $ 0.2 4.9% 5.0% $ 0.2 558 $ 286

The Store (Buy Sell Trade) $ 0.0 0.2% 5.0% $ 0.0 837 $ 8St Vincent De Paul $ 0.4 14.3% 5.0% $ 0.5 1,590 $ 293

Salvation Army $ 0.3 8.2% 5.0% $ 0.3 530 $ 506You Save Furniture Second Hand $ 0.1 1.9% 5.0% $ 0.1 446 $ 141

Cellar Guitars $ 0.0 0.6% 5.0% $ 0.0 446 $ 41

2014Total Proposed $ 4.6 100.0% 6.1% $ 4.9 15,325 $ 320

Pet Value $ 1.3 29.0% 5.0% $ 1.4 1,050 $ 1,339 16.5%Pet Headquarters $ 0.4 9.3% 5.0% $ 0.5 1,302 $ 348 16.5%

Electronics Plus New Refurbished and Used Items $ - 0.0% 5.0% $ - 781 $ - n/aDebyes Pets $ 0.5 11.2% 5.0% $ 0.5 781 $ 697 16.5%

Office Supplies $ 0.2 5.2% 5.0% $ 0.3 1,302 $ 195 16.5%Quality Flowers and Gifts $ 0.2 3.8% 5.0% $ 0.2 558 $ 333 16.5%

The Store (Buy Sell Trade) $ 0.0 0.2% 5.0% $ 0.0 837 $ 9 16.5%St Vincent De Paul $ 0.5 11.2% 5.0% $ 0.5 1,590 $ 342 16.5%

Salvation Army $ 0.3 6.5% 5.0% $ 0.3 530 $ 589 16.5%You Save Furniture Second Hand $ 0.1 1.5% 5.0% $ 0.1 446 $ 164 16.5%

Cellar Guitars $ 0.0 0.4% 5.0% $ 0.0 446 $ 48 16.5%Total Existing $ 3.6 78.5% 5.0% $ 3.8 9,625 $ 395 16.5%

Proposed:

Pearson Plaza $ 1.0 21.5% 10.0% $ 1.1 5,700 $ 193Total Proposed $ 1.0 21.5% 10.0% $ 1.1 5,700 $ 193

2016Total Proposed $ 4.7 100.0% 23.5% $ 6.1 15,325 $ 401







Proposed:



80

FIGURE E-7: MISCELLANEOUS RETAIL STORE IMPACT ANALYSIS continued…


($Millions) (1



Square Footage


LevelsChange from

Base Year

2021Total Proposed $ 5.1 100.0% 25.7% $ 6.9 15,325 $ 448







Proposed:


2026Total Proposed $ 5.5 100.0% 26.6% $ 7.5 15,325 $ 489


Electronics Plus New Refurbished and Used Items $ - 0.0% 5.0% $ - 781 $ - n/aDebyes Pets $ 0.8 10.3% 5.0% $ 0.8 781 $ 1,062 77.4%





Proposed:


2031Total Proposed $ 5.8 100.0% 6.6% $ 6.2 15,325 $ 406







Proposed:




81

APPENDIX G – MARKET DEPTH STORE LIST

As part of urbanMetrics’ retail market analysis, we have assembled a list of retail chains that already have a presence in smaller communities located in Northern Ontario, which could potentially locate in Elliot Lake. In order to determine the market depth, urbanMetrics has identified retail chains which already operate in smaller Northern Ontario communities similar to Elliot Lake, and determined the average size of each retailer.

After identifying a range of potential retailers in a number of store categories, we determine the likelihood that each retailer would locate in Elliot Lake and classified each store accordingly. Retailers were classified as:

• Likely – the selected retailer already operates chains in smaller markets and has existing locations in Northern Ontario;

• Somewhat Likely – the selected retailer only operates a few stores in smaller market and currently have a limited presence in Northern Ontario; and

• Minimal Likelihood – the selected retailer doesn’t operate chains in smaller market and does not currently have a presence in Northern Ontario.

Only retailers considered ‘Likely’ and ‘Somewhat Likely’ have been included in our summary of the total market depth for retail/service commercial space in Elliot Lake.


82

FIGURE F-1: LIST OF POTENTIAL RETAILERS

Format/Retail ChainAverage Size in

Square FeetLikelihood of Opening a Chain in Elliot Lake

Becker Milk 2,210 Likely

Mac's 2,210 Likely

Daisy Mart 2,210 Likely

Bulk Barn 4,400 Likely

Herbal One Weight Management Centres 2,200 LikelyLaura Secord 2,000 Minimal Likelihood

Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory 2,000 Minimal LikelihoodMarket Depth - Square Footage Terms - Likely/Somewhat Likely Only 13,230 SQ.FT.

Mark's 8,620 Likely

Bentley 3,500 Likely

Ecco Canada 2,100 Likely

Northern Reflections 2,470 Likely

Ricki's 3,940 Likely

BioPed 1,800 Likely

Tan Jay 1,510 Somewhat Likely

Joe Fresh 2,800 Somewhat Likely

Ardene 2,900 Somewhat Likely

Tootsies Shoe Market 4,100 Somewhat Likely

Becker Shoes 1,500 Somewhat Likely

Payless ShoeSource 3,200 Somewhat Likely

Walking on a Cloud 1,800 Somewhat Likely

SoftMoc 2,000 Somewhat Likely

Smart Set 3,400 Somewhat Likely

Penningtons 6,000 Somewhat Likely

Reitmans 4,600 Somewhat Likely

Alia 1,400 Somewhat Likely

Nygard Store 6,530 Minimal Likelihood

Winners 29,000 Minimal Likelihood

RW & Co 4,500 Minimal Likelihood

Zara 11,970 Minimal Likelihood

Old Navy 18,260 Minimal Likelihood

Moores The Suit People 6,310 Minimal Likelihood

The Shoe Company 6,700 Minimal Likelihood

Addition-Elle 6,100 Minimal Likelihood

Fairweather 5,660 Minimal Likelihood

Laura 4,110 Minimal Likelihood

Cleo 4,030 Minimal LikelihoodMarket Depth - Square Footage Terms - Likely/Somewhat Likely Only 56,240 SQ.FT.

Home Furniture 7,500 LikelyThe Brick 38,900 LikelyEasyHome 2,800 LikelyLiving Lighting 4,800 LikelyLeon's Furniture 80,000 Minimal Likelihood

Sleep Country Canada 5,170 Minimal Likelihood

EB Games 1,590 Minimal Likelihood

Bell Mobility Centre/~Cellular 1,200 Minimal Likelihood

HomeSense 24,000 Minimal LikelihoodMarket Depth - Square Footage Terms - Likely/Somewhat Likely Only 54,000 SQ.FT.

Furniture StoresAppliance, Television and Other Electronics StoresAppliance, Television and Other Electronics StoresAll Other Home Furnishings Stores

Furniture Stores

Family Clothing StoresMen's Clothing StoresShoe StoresWomen's Clothing StoresWomen's Clothing StoresWomen's Clothing StoresWomen's Clothing Stores

Furniture StoresFurniture StoresFurniture StoresAppliance, Television and Other Electronics Stores

Family Clothing Stores

Shoe StoresShoe StoresWomen's Clothing StoresWomen's Clothing StoresWomen's Clothing StoresWomen's Clothing StoresFamily Clothing StoresFamily Clothing StoresFamily Clothing Stores

Jewelry StoresShoe StoresShoe StoresShoe Stores

NAICS Description

Luggage and Leather Goods StoresShoe Stores

Women's Clothing Stores

Family Clothing Stores

Shoe Stores


Convenience StoresConvenience StoresConvenience StoresAll Other Specialty Food StoresAll Other Specialty Food StoresAll Other Specialty Food StoresAll Other Specialty Food Stores

All Other Clothing Stores



83

FIGURE F-1: LIST OF POTENTIAL RETAILERS continued…

FIGURE F-2: SUMMARY OF MARKET DEPTH

Format/Retail ChainAverage Size in

Square FeetLikelihood of Opening a Chain in Elliot Lake

Wal-Mart 116,740 LikelyCountry Depot 2,500 LikelyV&S Department Stores/ V&S Options (Stedmans) 7,000 LikelyThe Bargain! Shop 12,500 LikelyLiquidation World 22,000 LikelyTSC Stores 16,900 LikelyHart 25,000 Somewhat LikelyGiant Tiger/Tigre Geant 26,560 Somewhat LikelyDollarama 9,870 Somewhat LikelyBuck or Two/Dollar ou Deux 5,120 Somewhat LikelyValue Village 18,800 Somewhat LikelyHallmark Cards 3,900 Minimal LikelihoodMarket Depth - Square Footage Terms - Likely/Somewhat Likely Only 262,990 SQ.FT.

Casey’s Bar and Grill 5,700 LikelySwiss Chalet 4,600 LikelyA&W 1,700 LikelyPizza Hut 4,400 LikelyArby's 3,500 LikelyHarvey's 3,000 LikelyWendy's 5,200 LikelyKelsey's 4,500 LikelyBoston Pizza 5,700 Somewhat LikelyEast Side Mario’s 5,000 Somewhat LikelyPita Pit 2,100 Somewhat LikelyPizza Pizza 2,200 Somewhat LikelyMr. Sub 1,000 Somewhat LikelyQuiznos 1,800 Somewhat LikelyCountry Style Coffee 1,000 Somewhat LikelyBurger King 3,500 Somewhat LikelyMarket Depth - Square Footage Terms - Likely/Somewhat Likely Only 54,900 SQ.FT.

Medichair 4,860 LikelyShoppers Home Health Care 14,000 LikelyListen Up Canada 1,600 LikelyHearing First 2,000 LikelyHakim Optical 2,000 LikelyLensCrafters 4,000 LikelyPearle Vision 4,000 LikelyMarket Depth - Square Footage Terms - Likely/Somewhat Likely Only 32,460 SQ.FT.


Pharmacies and Personal Care StoresPharmacies and Personal Care Stores

Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores

Eating and DrinkingEating and DrinkingEating and DrinkingEating and DrinkingEating and DrinkingEating and DrinkingEating and Drinking

Pharmacies and Personal Care StoresPharmacies and Personal Care StoresPharmacies and Personal Care StoresPharmacies and Personal Care Stores

Eating and Drinking

All Other Miscellaneous General Merchandise StoresAll Other Miscellaneous General Merchandise StoresAll Other Miscellaneous General Merchandise Stores

Eating and DrinkingEating and DrinkingEating and DrinkingEating and DrinkingEating and DrinkingEating and DrinkingEating and DrinkingEating and Drinking

All Other Miscellaneous General Merchandise Stores

Department StoresAll Other Miscellaneous General Merchandise StoresAll Other Miscellaneous General Merchandise StoresAll Other Miscellaneous General Merchandise StoresAll Other Miscellaneous General Merchandise StoresAll Other Miscellaneous General Merchandise Stores

All Other Miscellaneous General Merchandise StoresAll Other Miscellaneous General Merchandise Stores

NAICS Description

Summary of Market Depth - Additional Square Footage - Elliot Lake

LikelySomewhat

Likely

11,030 0 11,030 22,430 35,210 57,640 54,000 0 54,000

177,640 85,350 262,990 32,600 22,300 54,900 32,460 0 32,460

330,160 142,860 473,020


Total

Grocery/Convenience and Specialty Food StoresClothing and Accessory StoresFurniture, Home Furnishings, Electronics, Appliances and Computer StoresDepartment StoresEating and DrinkingPharmacies and Personal Care Stores

Likely/ Somewhat Likely