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San Francisco
Transportation Plan Update
PART 4: Revenue Estimate and Investment Options
Spring 2013
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Revenue Estimate, Investment Options and Priorities
Revenue Estimate
Baseline Investment Policy
Investment Needs and Options
Budget Czar Website and Public Feedback
Investment Scenarios
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Revenue Estimate
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Expected transportation revenue for San Francisco
through 2040
$64.3 Billion total
expected through 2040
Anticipate Revenue Through 2040
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Baseline Projects Policy
SFTP Baseline Projects Methodology
Four criteria are used to determine if a project is included in the baseline when
developing the investment scenarios:
Project is under construction
Project is fully-funded and all funding for the project is committed
Project is identified as a regional transit expansion priority in the Metropolitan
Transportation Commission’s Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable
Communities Strategy Transportation Investment Strategy
Project is included in the Inter-related Program of Projects within the signed
Memorandum of Understanding: High-Speed Rail Early Investment Strategy for a
Blended System on the Peninsula Corridor (HSR MOU)
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Download the SFTP Baseline Policy
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SFTP Baseline Projects
SFTP Baseline Project Costs (as shown in RTP/SCS)
1Includes 30 years of operations and maintenance costs and TIFIA repayments.
Project Cost (YOE$) Basis for inclusion in baseline
1 Presidio Parkway $2,052.6 Under construction
2 Transbay Transit Center, Phase 1 $1,589.0 Under construction
3
Transbay Transit Center, Phase
2/Downtown Extension of High
Speed Rail/Caltrain Improvements
$2,596.0 Regional transit expansion priority
4 Central Subway $1,578.3 Under construction
5
High Speed Rail MOU projects –
Caltrain Electrification/EMU
vehicles/Advance Signal System
$485.0 Included in HSR MOU
6 Van Ness Avenue BRT $126.00 Regional transit expansion priority
7
Fully-funded developer projects
(Parkmerced local streets,
Parkmerced LRT extension,
Treasure Island local streets and
bus facility)
$99.0 Fully-funded
8 Yerba Buena Island Ramp
Improvements $103.0 Fully-funded
Total $8,628.9
Baseline Projects - $9.43 Billion
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Projects that are:
Under construction
Identified as a
regional transit
expansion priority by
region
Fully Funded
Committed under
the high-speed rail
early investment
strategy
Not pictured: Other Developer Funded Projects
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Investment Needs and Options
Financially constrained investment scenarios
How should we prioritize $3.14Billion in
uncommitted funds?
State of Good Repair / Operations &
Maintenance (SOGR/O&M)
O&M to relieve crowding, improve reliability
Pavement quality, structures
Transportation enhancements and programs
Pedestrian safety, traffic calming
Bicycle facilities
Expansion projects
Improve transit for existing and new travel
markets
Develop freeway management strategies
(US101, HWY280)
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How should we prioritize $3.14 Billion?
Candidate Investment: Operations and Maintenance
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$51.7 B must be spent on
Operations and Maintenance
$4 B more needed just to
maintain today’s levels of repair
and transit service
$3 billion to increase transit
frequency to address crowding
and growth
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$764 mil to continue funding at
today’s levels
Several billion for more ambitious
goals: citywide cycletrack* network,
pedestrian safety strategy
How should we prioritize $3.14 Billion?
Candidate Investment: Programs
* Cycletracks are grade-
separated, buffered bike
lanes
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Over 40 projects evaluated for cost effective contribution to plan
goals
Total cost of $14 billion, top tier cost of ~$1.3 billion in projects
How should we prioritize $3.14 Billion?
Candidate Investment: Projects
Transportation system needs relative to revenue
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SOGR Need - $56B to maintain
existing conditions (vs. $51.7
expected)
Programs - $2.6B for agencies'
top priority Capital Improvement
Program investments
Projects - $1.3B in “highest”
performing capital or expansion
projects
Expanded service – $2.5B to
address crowding and
accommodate growth
Demand for transportation funding exceeds revenue
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
SOGR Gap,ExistingSystem
Programs (1) Projects (2) ExpandedService (3)
Total Need(4)
Need for Discretionary Transportation
Funds (Billions)
(1) Based on Agency top priority
CIP needs
(2) Based on Highest Tier, Benefit
Cost Proxy Index
(3) Service expansion to
accommodate growth, meet
latent demand
(4) Total top priority estimated
need for discretionary funding
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Expected discretionary revenues -
$3.14B
Congestion pricing - $2.5B for both
Treasure Island and Downtown
Cordon
Half cent sales tax increase or
vehicle license fee (VLF) - ~$4B
Total potential discretionary
revenue - ~$11.5B
Potential new revenue options
02468101214
Expected
DiscretionaryRevenues
Congestion
Pricing
Half Cent
Sales TaxIncrease or
VLF
Additional
Source
Total
potentialdiscretionary
revenue
Potential Revenue Sources (Billions)
Potential revenue sources include, but are not limited
to:
• Half-cent sales tax increase
• Transportation user fees (parking pricing, high-
occupancy toll (HOT) lanes on freeways, increased
bridge tolls
• Increase Vehicle License Fee (VLF)
• Parcel tax
• Community benefits district property assessment
(Mello-Roos)
• Local motor fuel (gas) tax
Cost Saving Strategies
Use available resources more efficiently
Innovative project and service delivery approaches
Employer / private sector participation
Infrastructure bank financing
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Under Development: Investment Scenarios
• Potential Scenario Frameworks for the Constrained Plan:
• Options for how to allocate investment funds across the range of
needs (maintenance and operations, programs, and projects):
• Even Split
• % Need
• Bang for the Buck
• Fix it First/Back to Basics
• Safety
• Crowd-sourced plan (public feedback from Budget Czar game)
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Public Input on Investment Priorities
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San Francisco Transportation Plan – Fall Outreach
Objectives:
1. Educate the public about transportation needs and available revenues
2. Use “Budget Game” to gather input on how best to prioritize available funds
Maintenance and operations vs. smaller programs vs. larger expansion projects
3. Reach a broad cross-section of San Francisco stakeholders
Geographic, ethnic, racial, income diversity
Residents, employees, business owners
SFTP Budget Game Queen became a
popular image around town
Getting the Word Out
Email notification
500+ SFTP email list, 3,500+ Authority-wide list
Fact sheets
~1000 (English, Chinese, Spanish) distributed at 14 locations
Advertisements on buses/shelters + in newspapers
1100 on buses, 450 in shelters, 10 newspaper ads
Community events and presentations
~2000 postcards distributed at 11 events citywide
18 presentations to Boards, Commissions, various groups
Social Media (facebook/twitter)
Press release and media coverage
SF Business Times, SF Examiner, Bay Citizen, SF Streetsblog
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A Strong Response
The public response was
strong:
~800 submittals for the
Budget Czar Game
Engaged audiences at
presentations to community
groups and Boards/
Commissions
Appreciation for the
informative content of the
Game
Desire for another round
relating to revenue options
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Who We Reached
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SF Zip Code: 350 | Non-SF Zip Code: 57 | Did not report: 331
Budget Game Results –
Demographics:
All age, racial, ethnic and
income groups reached,
but
Over-representation of:
Ages 25-40
White
Higher-Income
Central Supervisorial
districts (5, 8, 9)
Desire for increase in transit O&M (80%)
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Investment In Maintenance and Operations
Desire for more investment in walking, cycling, + Muni
Enhancements
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Investment in Programs
High-Performing Transit Efficiency Projects Lead the
Pack
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Demand for Projects (top 10 vote-getters)
Middle 10 projects
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Investment in Project s (middle 10 projects)
Least frequently chosen projects
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Investment in Projects (bottom 13 projects)
What We Heard - Key Themes
1. Appreciation for Budget Game as a useful tool for public engagement.
2. Strong desire to get back to the basics: prioritize maintenance and operations of the
existing Muni system, improve its reliability, and address crowding
3. Conviction that San Francisco deserves a world-class public transportation system,
with faster, more frequent service
4. Strong desire to improve cycling and walking conditions.
5. High priority for a focus on core capacity improvements
6. Quite a bit of support, but also some skepticism about congestion pricing; interest in
parking-based alternatives.
7. Desire for cost savings, faster project delivery
8. Support for more revenue, and more discussion about new revenue options
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