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Measuring Media Site Traffic:The pitfalls of using computer programs to measure Web activity

Clyde Bentley, Ph.D. Associate Professor University of Missouri at Columbia

Greg Harmon, A.M.Director, Interactive ServicesBelden Associates

The Digital Revolution:The Impact of Digital Media and Information TechnologiesOct. 14-16, 2004, Columbia, SC.



Greg Harmon, A.M.Belden [email protected]

Digital Revolution Newsplex 20004Clyde H. Bentley, Ph.D.Missouri School of Journalism

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Problem: What Counts?

How big is the Web audience?

Who is in that audience?How do audience members usethe Web?

S eemingly simple questions are hard toanswer.





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A question of importance

R each and frequencycalculations determine revenueWith the Web no longer ³novel,´

it must compete with traditionalmediaSurvival of the medium may

depend its marketability





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We are what we compute

As a digital medium, the Webrelied on digital measurementComputer-tracked numbers wereautomatically viewed as reliableCookies and logfiles became the

norm





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T esting the assumptions

Proprietary research by BeldenAssociates50 surveys of 40 newspaper

sites70,000 Web visitors





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N umbers and numbers

Compares acrossmethodologies:

Log file information ( WebTrends,Omniture, Accrue « )Survey data based on online

questionnaires





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T he S urvey Method

Sample users of newspaper Websites via ³popups´ ³Nth selection´ randomization of users presented with popupSurvey appeal operates 24/7 to

minimize time bias





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T he popup appeals

Altruistic appeal ³Help us build a better site´

Selfish appeal ³A chance to win $1,000´

Belden sweepstakes every 3-4months





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D ense data

Survey includes 80 questionsSome questions customized for

the siteSoftware tracks popup offers

and indicates 5-10% responseratesMore than 50% of those who

open the survey finish it.





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Major survey findings

Nearly 2/3 of users are from thelocal marketAverage users acces 3-4 daysper week.Often access more than once a

day





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T he Log conflict

Logfiles show averages of only2-3 visits per monthEven major metros seldom

average more than five visits permonth



Greg Harmon, A.M.Belden Associates

[email protected] Revolution Newsplex 20004

Clyde H. Bentley, Ph.D.Missouri School of Journalism

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Conflicting alternatives?

Logfile overcountSome visitors

counted toooftenIdentities of usermisinterpreted

Biased surveyHeavy users

surveyed moreoftenInfrequent users

missed






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Census/ S urvey model

CensusLogfile counts allvisits andpageviewsContinuouscount

SurveyA sample is a

³snapshot´ intimeIt moderates theeffects of

³averages´






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I n the ballgame

U se the analogy of an athleticevent with both season ticketholders and one-game spectatorsEv en if 80% of the fans are seasonticket holders, the majority of people

who attended a game in a longseason will be ³ incidental ´ fans.








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Look again, sports fan

1 00-game season (a month on a Website)5 million people passed through the

turnstiles (Logfile of all visits)Only 1 .0 million indi v iduals actually

watched a game that season (Survey findings of actual use patterns)






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A new math

4% of all ³unique visitors´ to theballpark account for 80% of alltickets soldThe value of repeat customers is

undervalued






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A vid fans=regular readers?

10% of newspaper site visitorswere ³incidental´ Less than 10% of all page viewsLogfiles count them as 60% of

all visits.






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Less is more?

Table 3: Incidental use of online newspapers SegmentTypes/TotalAudienceE stimate

SegmentTypeE stimates

Propor-tion

Pagesper Visit

DaysVisiting

Visits ProjectedPage-views

Propor-tion

I ci t l( i ri r 7 s)

71,397 62 5.19 1 1 37 ,55 5

4x+Visit rs

44,439 3 5.19 16.9 1. 4 7,171,932 95

T t l 115, 36 1 7,542,4 2 1S rc : B l ss ci t s 2 3






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What is happening?

Cookies are being blocked orclearedNational counts miss people

checking sites from workU sers have multiple computersLike newspapers, core readers

are loyal






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A nd in the future?

New, more accurate measuresare needed.R egistration offers some hope,

but is resistedCombination of logs and surveys

might workComputer users must be seenas individuals