Seamless ComputingOpportunities & Challenges for China
Kai-Fu LeeCorporate Vice PresidentMicrosoft Corporation
Talk OutlineTalk Outline
IT & GrowthIT & GrowthSeamless ComputingSeamless ComputingOpportunities for ChinaOpportunities for China
Software :Software : Engine of growthEngine of growth
Power of software today:Power of software today:US$200 Billion industryUS$200 Billion industry
10 million well-paid professionals10 million well-paid professionals
Increased efficiency everywhereIncreased efficiency everywhere
5 times faster growth than GDP5 times faster growth than GDP
Will the growth continue?Will the growth continue?Microsoft: YES!Microsoft: YES!
Microsoft R&D:Microsoft R&D:
1998 : $3 billion1998 : $3 billion
2004 : $7.9 billion2004 : $7.9 billion
What fuels this growth?What fuels this growth?Moore’s lawMoore’s law
Waves of innovation.Waves of innovation.
PC ArchitecturePC ArchitectureOperating Operating SystemsSystems
SpreadsheetsSpreadsheetsWord ProcessorsWord Processors
PCPC19801980
InternetInternet19951995
ApplicationsApplications19901990
Seamless Seamless ComputingComputing
20052005
Speech/WritingSpeech/Writing
XML/SOAPXML/SOAPHTTP/HTMLHTTP/HTMLSMTPSMTP
InternetInternetWeb BrowserWeb BrowserEmail ClientsEmail Clients
Wi-Fi/BroadbandWi-Fi/BroadbandDevices Devices everywhereeverywhereWeb ServicesWeb Services
Rights ManagementRights ManagementTrusted Computing Trusted Computing HardwareHardware
MouseMouseGUIGUILANsLANs
Desktop publishingDesktop publishingEnterprise Enterprise applicationsapplications
Waves of InnovationWaves of Innovation
Research & Research & DevelopmentDevelopment
Engineering Intellectual Property
Market AdoptionMarket AdoptionIntellectual Property Economic Value
Information Information DrivenDriven
Information Information DrivenDriven
ExperiencesExperiencesExperiencesExperiences
ConnectedConnectedConnectedConnected
Self-Self-organizationorganization
ReplicationReplication
Speech & Speech & Intelligent Intelligent
UIUI
ContentContentAddressabilityAddressability
Amazing visualizationAmazing visualization
Machine-to-Machine-to-Machine Machine
InteractionInteraction
Person-to-PersonPerson-to-PersonInteractionInteraction
Person-to-Person-to-MachineMachine
InteractionInteraction
Ink &Ink &HandwritinHandwritin
gg
Seamless Computing:Seamless Computing: The Next The Next WaveWave
GraphicalGraphicalUser InterfaceUser Interface
Natural Natural User InterfaceUser Interface
User Interface EvolutionUser Interface Evolution
Command lineCommand line
19851985PCPC
19901990GUIGUI
Multiple WindowsMultiple WindowsMenusMenus
19951995InternetInternet
HyperlinksHyperlinksSearch EnginesSearch Engines
Digital DecadeDigital DecadeXMLXML
Web ServicesWeb ServicesSmart devicesSmart devices
Natural LanguageNatural LanguageMultimodal (speech, ink…)Multimodal (speech, ink…)
Personal AssistantPersonal Assistant
Natural User InterfaceNatural User InterfaceDo what I meanDo what I mean
NUI InteractionNUI InteractionNatural & task-basedNatural & task-basedExpressive & efficientExpressive & efficientScalable & adaptiveScalable & adaptive
NUI InteractionNUI InteractionNatural & task-basedNatural & task-basedExpressive & efficientExpressive & efficientScalable & adaptiveScalable & adaptive
“ To me, speech recognition will be a transforming capability … when you can speak to your computer and it will understand what you're saying in context.”
– Gordon Moore
“Speech and natural language understanding are the key technologies that will have the most impact in the next 15 years.” – Bill Gates
A Roadmap Towards NUI A Roadmap Towards NUI VisionVision
TTS SR DialogTTS SR DialogSpeech
Search Help Tasks Q&ASearch Help Tasks Q&A
Text
Delegation & Pro-ActiveDelegation & Pro-ActiveFederation Agents PlanningFederation Agents Planning
Multi-Modal/Task-Based
A Roadmap Towards NUI A Roadmap Towards NUI VisionVision
TTS SR DialogTTS SR DialogSpeech
Search Help Tasks Q&ASearch Help Tasks Q&A
Text
Delegation & Pro-ActiveDelegation & Pro-ActiveFederation Agents PlanningFederation Agents Planning
Multi-Modal/Task-Based
Buy 100 shares of Microsoft
A Roadmap Towards NUI A Roadmap Towards NUI VisionVision
TTS SR DialogTTS SR DialogSpeech
Search Help Tasks Q&ASearch Help Tasks Q&A
Text
Delegation & Pro-ActiveDelegation & Pro-ActiveFederation Agents PlanningFederation Agents Planning
Multi-Modal/Task-Based
Buy Microsoft stock
A Roadmap Towards NUI A Roadmap Towards NUI VisionVision
TTS SR DialogTTS SR DialogSpeech
Search Help Tasks Q&ASearch Help Tasks Q&A
Text
Delegation & Pro-ActiveDelegation & Pro-ActiveFederation Agents PlanningFederation Agents Planning
Multi-Modal/Task-Based
Find email from John about the budget
A Roadmap Towards NUI A Roadmap Towards NUI VisionVision
TTS SR DialogTTS SR DialogSpeech
Search Help Tasks Q&ASearch Help Tasks Q&A
Text
Delegation & Pro-ActiveDelegation & Pro-ActiveFederation Agents PlanningFederation Agents Planning
Multi-Modal/Task-Based
Protect my PC
A Roadmap Towards NUI A Roadmap Towards NUI VisionVision
TTS SR DialogTTS SR DialogSpeech
Search Help Tasks Q&ASearch Help Tasks Q&A
Text
Delegation & Pro-ActiveDelegation & Pro-ActiveFederation Agents PlanningFederation Agents Planning
Multi-Modal/Task-Based
Print address labels from Outlook Contacts
A Roadmap Towards NUI A Roadmap Towards NUI VisionVision
TTS SR DialogTTS SR DialogSpeech
Search Help Tasks Q&ASearch Help Tasks Q&A
Text
Delegation & Pro-ActiveDelegation & Pro-ActiveFederation Agents PlanningFederation Agents Planning
Multi-Modal/Task-Based
What is the best University in California?
A Roadmap Towards NUI A Roadmap Towards NUI VisionVision
TTS SR DialogTTS SR DialogSpeech
Search Help Tasks Q&ASearch Help Tasks Q&A
Text
Delegation & Pro-ActiveDelegation & Pro-ActiveFederation Agents PlanningFederation Agents Planning
Multi-Modal/Task-Based
Send flowers to my wife on her birthday
A Roadmap Towards NUI A Roadmap Towards NUI VisionVision
TTS SR DialogTTS SR DialogSpeech
Search Help Tasks Q&ASearch Help Tasks Q&A
Text
Delegation & Pro-ActiveDelegation & Pro-ActiveFederation Agents PlanningFederation Agents Planning
Multi-Modal/Task-Based
Hold all calls unless it’s urgent
A Roadmap Towards NUI A Roadmap Towards NUI VisionVision
TTS SR DialogTTS SR DialogSpeech
Search Help Tasks Q&ASearch Help Tasks Q&A
Text
Delegation & Pro-ActiveDelegation & Pro-ActiveFederation Agents PlanningFederation Agents Planning
Multi-Modal/Task-Based
I want to plan a vacation to Europe
Speech Accelerated by…Speech Accelerated by………Super-Moore’s LawSuper-Moore’s Law
Enable human-level speech recognition Enable human-level speech recognition (SR):(SR):
Leveraging Moore’s Law + more data + researchLeveraging Moore’s Law + more data + researchPredictable 10% error reduction or more per Predictable 10% error reduction or more per yearyearHuman-level performance possible in 10-20 Human-level performance possible in 10-20 yearsyears
Also enable natural language, Bayesian Also enable natural language, Bayesian learning….learning….
TasksTasksSR error SR error raterate
Human Human error rateerror rate
SR-Human SR-Human GapGap
Free style Free style transcriptiontranscription
30%30% 4%4% 19 years19 years
Alphabet lettersAlphabet letters 5%5% 1%1% 15 years15 years
Read newspaper Read newspaper transcriptiontranscription
3%3% 0.9%0.9% 11 years11 years
IT & Software :IT & Software : Opportunities for Opportunities for ChinaChinaChina China
China = #1 factor in Asia’s China = #1 factor in Asia’s growthgrowth
Huge marketHuge market#2 PC market in the world#2 PC market in the world
#1 phone market in the world#1 phone market in the world
Huge growthHuge growth25% CAGR in IT25% CAGR in IT
50% in software & services50% in software & services
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Ch
ina
's I
T S
pe
nd
ing
(U
S$
B)
Opportunities•Leverage strong traditional industries•Large talent pool•Outsourcing becoming global trend
Challenges•Lacks software eco-system•Lacks IT leadership talent•India is far ahead in outsourcing
India :India : World Leader in OutsourcingWorld Leader in Outsourcing““ Ideal” population for outsourcingIdeal” population for outsourcing
English-speaking country with good educationEnglish-speaking country with good education
Entry-level call center jobs with growth pathEntry-level call center jobs with growth path
700 million people under 35700 million people under 35
Highly adaptable cultureHighly adaptable culture
Process leadershipProcess leadershipCost optimizationCost optimization
““Go to India for cost; stay for quality”Go to India for cost; stay for quality”
Valuable companies with ambition beyond Valuable companies with ambition beyond outsourcingoutsourcing
Top 4 companies worth US$50B showing astounding Top 4 companies worth US$50B showing astounding growthgrowth
Good environment for start-up companiesGood environment for start-up companiesOpportunities
•Insatiable demand for outsourcing•Aspiration to build software company
Challenges•Lacks infrastructure/modern cities•Lacks domestic market
Recommendations for Recommendations for ChinaChinaTodayToday: :
LearnLearn by building an outsourcing industry (like by building an outsourcing industry (like India):India):
Learn from Indian companies, build 2-3 large companies.Learn from Indian companies, build 2-3 large companies.Stimulate software companies with high-demand US Stimulate software companies with high-demand US customerscustomersBe willing to take on “simple” work (testing, localization)Be willing to take on “simple” work (testing, localization)Educate talent with English, int’l sales, large proj. mgmt. Educate talent with English, int’l sales, large proj. mgmt. skillsskills
DevelopDevelop a Chinese IT software industry (like US): a Chinese IT software industry (like US):Leverage China’s huge domestic market & traditional Leverage China’s huge domestic market & traditional industriesindustriesBuild on areas where software value is understood Build on areas where software value is understood (enterprise)(enterprise)Educate talent with market research, customer-focus Educate talent with market research, customer-focus experienceexperience
LeadLead by finding leapfrog opportunities that favor by finding leapfrog opportunities that favor China:China:
Web services : Disruptive change + advantage for local Web services : Disruptive change + advantage for local playersplayersMobility & phone : Unique market that is advanced & Mobility & phone : Unique market that is advanced & largelarge
EducateEducate leadership talent by improving higher leadership talent by improving higher educationeducation
““Hard skills” : international business, management, Hard skills” : international business, management, processprocess““Soft skills”: teamwork, communication, “EQ”Soft skills”: teamwork, communication, “EQ”
FutureFuture: Software export to international : Software export to international marketmarket
ConclusionConclusion
Opportunities for ChinaOpportunities for China•Learn by starting an outsourcing industry•Develop own IT ecosystem from traditional industries •Lead by finding opportunities to leapfrog•Educate engineering talent to become leadership talent
Software is the proven &Software is the proven &continual engine of growthcontinual engine of growth
China will harness this engine to China will harness this engine to become a world technology leaderbecome a world technology leader
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