Industry Update- Taiwan
Dan TracySEMI Industry Research & Statistics Group
SEMICON WEST 2010July 14, 2010
2
Record IC Unit Shipments
Source: WSTS/SIA
Chip demand drives material consumption and capital investment
IC Unit (3-month average) and ASP Trends
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
Jan-
03M
ar-0
3M
ay-0
3Ju
l-03
Sep-
03N
ov-0
3Ja
n-04
Mar
-04
May
-04
Jul-0
4Se
p-04
Nov
-04
Jan-
05M
ar-0
5M
ay-0
5Ju
l-05
Sep-
05N
ov-0
5Ja
n-06
Mar
-06
May
-06
Jul-0
6Se
p-06
Nov
-06
Jan-
07M
ar-0
7M
ay-0
7Ju
l-07
Sep-
07N
ov-0
7Ja
n-08
Mar
-08
May
-08
Jul-0
8Se
p-08
Nov
-08
Jan-
09M
ar-0
9M
ay-0
9Ju
l-09
Sep-
09N
ov-0
9Ja
n-10
Mar
-10
Bill
ions
of U
nits
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
US$
IC UnitsIC ASP
3
2010 Semiconductor and IC Revenue Forecasts
Source: SEMI
25.0%
27.0%
27.1%
27.9%
28.4%
28.6%
30.6%
31.0%
32.7%
23.0%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Databeans (Apr 10)
VLSI Research (May 10)
IC Insights (May 10)
Gartner (Jun 10)
Semico Research (Jun 10)
SIA (Jun 10)
WSTS (Jun 10)
iSuppli (May 10)
Future Horizons (May 10)
Henderson Ventures (Jun 10)
4
Taiwan Market
“TSMC Chang more upbeat on 2010 chip growth”Digitimes, June 15, 2010
“Taiwan to invest in NAND flash project”SiliconStrategies, June 30, 2010
“ASE raises 2010 capex”Digitimes June 15, 2010
“UMC capacity bookedthrough 3Q10, says CFO”
Digitimes, June 15, 2010
“Chipbond at almost full capacity”
Digitimes, June 23, 2010
5Source: Company reports
Outsource Manufacturers Monthly Sales
2Q 2010
- +13% > 1Q 2010
- +39% > 2Q 2009
Combined Monthly Revenues- 3 Mo. Avg.(ASE, SPIL, TSMC, and UMC)
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Jan-
03M
ar-0
3M
ay-0
3Ju
l-03
Sep-
03N
ov-0
3Ja
n-04
Mar
-04
May
-04
Jul-0
4Se
p-04
Nov
-04
Jan-
05M
ar-0
5M
ay-0
5Ju
l-05
Sep-
05N
ov-0
5Ja
n-06
Mar
-06
May
-06
Jul-0
6Se
p-06
Nov
-06
Jan-
07M
ar-0
7M
ay-0
7Ju
l-07
Sep-
07N
ov-0
7Ja
n-08
Mar
-08
May
-08
Jul-0
8Se
p-08
Nov
-08
Jan-
09M
ar-0
9M
ay-0
9Ju
l-09
Sep-
09N
ov-0
9Ja
n-10
Mar
-10
May
-10
NT$
Mill
ions
6
Taiwan Fab Capacity – Foundry to drive capacity growth
Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, May 2010
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
8" equiv wafer K
/month
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Taiwan Fab Capacity - Foundry & DRAM
AnalogDiscreteFoundryLogicMemoryMEMSOther
7
Foundry Capacity Share – Taiwan Leads the pack
Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, May 2010
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Worldwide Foundry Capacity Share
TaiwanSE AsiaKoreaJapanEurope & MideastChinaAmericas
8
Taiwan Fab Spending – Foundry & DRAM-driven
Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, May 2010
2711
8380
1576
3641
2746
1120 5574
3265
6384
3795
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
US$ M
illion
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Taiwan Fab Spending by Product Type
OtherMEMSMemoryLogicFoundryDiscreteAnalog
9
Taiwan Foundry: Strong rebound!!
• Taiwan foundries led strong recovery of wafer shipment and utilization starting from 2Q09.
• Aggressive capacity and technology investment from 3Q09 onwards are much faster than earlier expected.
• Market dynamics: IDM’s fab-lite strategy and legacy fabclosures will continue to foster foundry business.
• Ongoing consolidation – for both market share and geographic presence.
10
DRAM: 50nm and below transition
• DRAM market shall remain healthy throughout the year as supply increase still lag behind demand.
• 50nm and 40nm class migration from DRAM sector will continue to drive the equipment spending for 2H10 and 2011.
• The availability of immersion tools has become the bottleneck of technology migration and capacity expansion plan.
11
Some Recent 2010 Announcements
TSMC• US$4.8 billion capex plan; Over 90% for “advanced node” capacity• 28 nm pilot to start in mid 2010.• New GigaFab project – Fab 15 in Taichung start groundbreaking this year.
UMC• Capex will be in the range of US$1.2 billion to US$1.5 billion• Fab 12A 40/45nm capacity, 28 nm development• Fab 12A P3/P4: related construction to be completed by 3Q10
Nanya /Inotera• 50 nm process starting, 42 nm schedule to pull in starting from 3Q10.• Nanya to raise capex for Fab 3 expansion.
Powerchip/Rexchip• Node migration to 45nm being delayed due to the availability of litho tools.• Powerchip and Rexchip both plan around US$390M capex this year.
Source: SEMI, Company announcements, and DigiTimes
12
Some Recent 2010 Announcements
SPIL• Capex further expand to over US$600M this year, mainly for copper wire bonding expansion.
ASE• Capex revised from US$500M to US$700M. (a historical high)
Powertech Technology• New Hsinchu plant started equipping in 2Q10 and will come on-line in 3Q10.• Plans to increase 35%-40% capacity this year.
Walton Advanced Engineering• New facility in Kaohsiung (from Hannstar) will come online in 3Q10. (pull in one quarter)
Ardentec• Plans to increase capacity in Taiwan and Singapore facilities.
Source: SEMI, Company announcements, and DigiTimes
13
Dedicated LED Fabs
4# of fabs
Europe
● Upcoming fabs
Legend
9# of fabs
Korea
Source: SEMI® Opto/LED Fab Watch / World Fab Forecast, June, 2010
Notes:• Filtered by Product Type: Discrete/LED• Information is subject to change.
3# of fabs
North America
28# of fabs
China
11# of fabs
Japan
37# of fabs
Taiwan
2# of fabs
Southeast Asia
14
Known Investments for Dedicated LED Fabs
$337 MKorea
$600 MTaiwan
S.E. Asia
Europe & Mideast
North America
Japan
China
Region
$270 M
$60 M
$ 12 M
$ 3 M
$503 M
2010 Fab Spending (Construction / Equipping)
Notes: - Data is estimated for 2010- List above only includes Dedicated LED Chip making fab.
Source: SEMI® World Fab Forecast, June 2010
15
Taiwan LED Manufacturers: Growing InvestmentsEpistar• Plan to expand MOCVD tool from 180 to 220 in Taiwan.• Two new LED JV fabs in China will come on line in 2011.• Acquire 48% stake of Huga Optotech.
Lexstar• Aggressive ramp of epi capacity from 30K/M in 1Q10 to 130K/M in Taiwan.
TSMC• Invest US$175M to build a LED lighting R&D center in Hsinchu.
Formosa Epitaxy• To increase a dozen MOCVD tools in Taiwan this year.• New fab in Yangzhou China will come on line in 3Q10.
Chimei Lighting Technology• To accelerate capacity expansion by acquiring facility and equipment from GIO Opto.
Genesis Photonics• New plant in Tainan to come online in 3Q10, with maximum capacity of 50K/month. • New JV project in Kunshan, China is planned in 2011.
Source: SEMI, Company announcements, and DigiTimes
16
TSV
• ITRI– In July, ITRI establishes the first 12-inch wafer TSV
experimental line in Asia to develop Taiwan's home-grown 3D IC technology.
– Companies that also join the TSV R&D initiative include ASE, UMC, SPIL, Hermes, etc.
17
SEMI® 2010 Mid-Year Equipment Forecast By Market Region
Source: SEMI Mid-Year 2010 Semiconductor Consensus Forecast, July 2010
Totals may not add due to rounding
$0$5
$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45
N. America Japan Taiwan Europe S.Korea China ROW
ROW 3.05 2.61 1.44 3.01 3.80China 2.99 1.89 0.94 2.24 2.64S.Korea 7.35 4.89 2.60 7.49 8.08Europe 2.94 2.45 0.97 1.92 2.10Taiwan 10.65 5.01 4.35 9.18 9.28Japan 9.31 7.04 2.23 4.08 4.70N. America 6.55 5.63 3.39 4.57 4.94
2007 (A) 2008 (A) 2009 (A) 2010 (F) 2011 (F)
US$
Bill
ions
$15.92
$32.50$29.52$35.53
$42.77
18
SEMI® 2010 Materials Forecast By Market Region
$0$5
$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45$50
N. America Japan Taiwan Europe S.Korea China Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia 4.55 5.03 6.18 6.79 6.90 5.98 6.78 7.13China 1.28 1.64 2.38 3.31 3.57 3.26 3.86 4.25S.Korea 3.10 3.78 4.88 6.10 5.90 4.69 5.74 6.16Europe 2.80 2.88 3.39 3.68 3.32 2.52 2.96 3.09Taiwan 4.85 5.31 6.74 8.34 7.87 6.77 8.17 8.80Japan 7.61 7.58 8.57 9.19 9.96 7.63 8.69 9.01N. America 4.63 4.72 5.11 5.25 4.99 3.79 4.29 4.48
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F
US$
Bill
ions
$37.25
$28.82
$42.52
$34.63$30.94
Totals may not add due to rounding.
Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription May 2010
$42.67 $42.92$40.48
19
Global Spending on Semiconductor Equipment and Materials
2010 Spending Outlook = ~$73 Billion
China8% North
America12%
Japan18%
Korea18%
Europe7%
Taiwan24%
Southeast Asia13%
Source: SEMI
Taiwan Market #1 spending region in 2010 11% growth in 300mm fab capacity this year Estimated $120 billion spent since 2001
20
Summary• Semiconductor industry recovery
– Strong double-digit growth in 2010
• Taiwan market– Strong recovery in foundry (and packaging) beginning in 2Q 2009
leading to increases in capex– Challenges for Taiwan’s DRAM makers.
• Some boost in capex for 2010/11 for 50 nm and below technology– #1 market for foundry capacity, # 2 market overall for 300 mm
capacity
• Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Market in Taiwan– Will be the #1 region for equipment spending– The # 2 largest market for semiconductor materials
21
谢谢!
Ana LiSEMI Taiwan
July 14, 2010
The Most Effective Semiconductor Event in Taiwan!
Agenda
• SEMICON Taiwan 2010 Overview
• SEMICON Taiwan 2010 Features- Technology Pavilions- Programs & Events- Marketing Promotion Opportunities
• SEMICON Taiwan 2010 Visitor Promotion
2010/7/143
SEMICON Taiwan 2010• Date:
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FoundriesTSMCUMCSMICCharteredDongbuAnamHHNECVanguardSSMCHe JianJazz
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2010/7/147
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ManufacturersVisiting
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