SFFES- Ecological Sensitivity Workshop
CWHvh
(5% of District)
CWHvh – Calvin Ck, Nootka Is
CWHvh – Calvin Ck, Nootka Is. - Current BEC
CWHvh – Bookend climate scenarios
CWHvh – Calvin Ck, Nootka Is.– PCM-B1 2050
CWHvh– PCM-B1 2050
CDFmm temp
CWHvh(+)precip
CWHvh – Calvin Ck, Nootka Is.– HAD-A1FI 2050
CWHvh– HAD-A1F1 2050
CDFmm(+)temp
CWHmm2(++)Precip
CWHvh – HAD-A1F1 2050
Summer heat: moisture index
At the CWHvm level
CONSIDER CWHvh STAND / ECOSYSTEMS – In a changing climate
CWHvh STAND / ECOSYSTEMS- 2050(PCM & HAD)
SUMMARY OF DISCUSSION:
Vulnerability ClassesLow – Stands will suffer minor losses due to climate
change.Mod – likely will suffer significant but manageable
losses and or secondary risks (fire etc.)High – likely will suffer major losses or incur high
secondary risks, but catastrophic losses unlikely.Very High – likelihood for catastrophic losses are high.
Opportunity ClassesNil – No opportunity to enhance growth.Minor – Minor growth enhancement likely.Significant – significant growth enhancement
likely.
Species Vuln. Class
Opp. Class
Reasoning (e.g. drought stress/
Hw Low Nil-minor
No issues
Trees will grow better but also so will mistletoe
Some flooding at very low elevations (ocean rising).
More wind and severe weather = more decay – top breakage etc.
CWHvh STAND / ECOSYSTEMS- 2050(PCM & HAD)
SUMMARY OF DISCUSSION:Species Vuln. Class Opp.
ClassReasoning (e.g. drought stress/
Cw Low Minor to Signif
Increase in growth
No real problems
Fd High Nil It already is sensitive
Ss Low (locally moderate in very specific spots)
Minor No change
Flooding could be evident here – on alluvial areas – affected by estuary type conditions – Color-challenged ecosystem? Species?
Ba Low Minor May improve – more nutrients – cycling from decomp? / growing season moisture not an issue.
Still decay issues (with increased winds etc)
CWHvh Ecologically Suitable Regen – Now and Future
MESIC SITE DISCUSSION : 1. What are the vulnerabilities and why? (drought / insects /
disease?) 2. What are the opportunities – where / when?3. What are the outstanding questions?
% of orig area Ba Bg Bl Bp Cw Fd Hm Hw Lw Pl Pw Py Se Ss Sx Yc Act Dr Ep Mb Qg Ra
Present CWHvh1 (ha) 71,069 7 6 7, 35 b b
PCM-B1 2050
CWHvh1 94 7 6 7,35 b b
CWHvh1 39 7 6 7,35 b b
CWHvh1- warm 26
CWHvh hot 30Green Primary Footnotes in cells - see listYellow Secondary Orange Tertiary Novel climate envelope - suggested species
Preliminary Sensitivity InterpretationCWHvh1 most of this subzone will remain in a similar climate envelope under the least change scenario, portions will be warmer and some hotter unlike any climates present on the coast today. Under the greater change scenario almost equal areas fall within the same, warmer and hotter climates.
Footnotes6 restricted to nutrient-very-poor sites7 restricted to nutrient-medium sites
35 risk of weevil damageb limited in productivity, reliability and/or feasibility
MESIC SITES
HAD-A1F1 2050
CWHvh Regeneration Vulnerabilities & Opportunities
Added Comments:• Coast redwood – not clear if it would be suited – think it likely won’t be an
option. This would be a last resort – no species that are cutting it.• Perhaps should do some trials here just to see in case we can use it.• Perhaps Port Orford Cedar – planted in 58 – EP 571 in Uclulet.
• No major changes on regen side – same species that we use right now.• Pw – probably too wet – foliar problems.• Ba – possibly on warmer slopes - but may have problems with aphid – need
to look into it a bit more?• May want to mix in more stands with higher densities – more species options
moving forward.• Yc – right now is hanging in but not very vigorous. May be useful to mix into
species trials.
Mesic Sites
Ba Bg Bl Bp Cw Fd Hm Hw Lw Pl Pw Py Se Ss Sx Yc Act Dr Ep Mb Qg Ra
Present CWHvh1 (ha) 71,069 7 6 7, 35 b b
CWHvh1 94 7 6 7,35 b b
CWHvh1 39 7 6 7,35 b b
CWHvh1- warm 26
CWHvh hot 30Green Primary Footnotes in cells - see listYellow Secondary Orange Tertiary Novel climate envelope - suggested species
Preliminary Sensitivity InterpretationCWHvh1 most of this subzone will remain in a similar climate envelope under the least change scenario, portions will be warmer and some hotter unlike any climates present on the coast today. Under the greater change scenario almost equal areas fall within the same, warmer and hotter climates.
Footnotes6 restricted to nutrient-very-poor sites7 restricted to nutrient-medium sites35 risk of weevil damageb limited in productivity, reliability and/or feasibility
CWHvh Regeneration Vulnerabilities & Opportunities
Added Comments:• Ss – Weevil concerns – increasing hazard (although new weevil-resistant
phenotypes show lots of promise). – so may be an option and may grow well.
• 2080 discussion – likely trends in 2050 will continue.• Bogs to lakes – frogs to fish
Mesic Sites
Ba Bg Bl Bp Cw Fd Hm Hw Lw Pl Pw Py Se Ss Sx Yc Act Dr Ep Mb Qg Ra
Present CWHvh1 (ha) 71,069 7 6 7, 35 b b
CWHvh1 94 7 6 7,35 b b
CWHvh1 39 7 6 7,35 b b
CWHvh1- warm 26
CWHvh hot 30Green Primary Footnotes in cells - see listYellow Secondary Orange Tertiary Novel climate envelope - suggested species
Preliminary Sensitivity InterpretationCWHvh1 most of this subzone will remain in a similar climate envelope under the least change scenario, portions will be warmer and some hotter unlike any climates present on the coast today. Under the greater change scenario almost equal areas fall within the same, warmer and hotter climates.
Footnotes6 restricted to nutrient-very-poor sites7 restricted to nutrient-medium sites35 risk of weevil damageb limited in productivity, reliability and/or feasibility
PEEK FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE
CWHvh – Calvin Ck, Nootka Is. – PCM-B1 2080
CWHvm1
CWHvh
-war
m
CWHvm1CWHdm
CWHvh-hotCW
Hvh-w
arm
CWHvh-hot
Dominant Subzone Climate
% of the CWHvh
CWHvh1 78%
CWHvh-warm 15%
PEEK FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE
CWHvh – Calvin Ck, Nootka Is. – HAD-A1F1 2080
CWHvm
-war
m
CWHvh-hotCW
Hvh-h
ot
CWHvh-hot
CWHvm-hot
CWHvm
1
CW
Hvm
-hot
Dominant Subzone Climate
% of the CWHvh
CWHvh-hot 85%
CWHvh1/vh(+) / vh-warm
27%
PEEK FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE
CWHvh – Calvin Ck, Nootka Is. – HAD-A1F1 2080
mean annual temperature 8.5 11.6 3.1 mean warmest month temperature 14.7 18.0 3.3 mean coldest month temperature 3.3 6.0 2.7 extreme minimum temperature (13.7) (8.6) 5.1 Continentality (MWMT - MCMT) 11.4 11.9 4.7%frost free period 203.0 350.1 72.5%number of frost free days 310.6 355.5 14.4%degree-days above 18 degrees C 12.9 84.9 72.0degree-days below 0 degrees C 24.0 1.0 -23.0mean annual precipitation 3,659.9 4,242.4 15.9%mean annual summer precipitation 773.7 681.7 -11.9%precipitation as snow 172.5 68.0 -60.6%Summer heat:moisture index 19.2 26.7 38.5%Annual heat:moisture index 5.1 5.1 0.6%
ANNUAL CLIMATE VARIABLES Now 2080 change
Dominant Subzone Climate
% of the CWHvh
CWHvh-hot 85%
CWHvh1/vh(+) / vh-warm
27%