Simulation of the „Late Maunder Minimum“ ?
Hans von Storch
Institute of Coastal Research,
GKSS Research Centre
Geesthacht, Germany
København, 17. Oktober 2001
Simulation of the „Late Maunder Minimum“ ?
Hans von Storch
Institute of Coastal Research,
GKSS Research Centre
Geesthacht, Germany
København, 17. Oktober 2001 Inst
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Joint work of
Fidel Gonzalez-Rouco, Ulrich Cubasch,
Stefanie Legutke, Jürg Luterbacher,
Ulrich Schlese, Hans von Storch,
Eduardo Zorita
Joint work of
Fidel Gonzalez-Rouco, Ulrich Cubasch,
Stefanie Legutke, Jürg Luterbacher,
Ulrich Schlese, Hans von Storch,
Eduardo Zorita
1450-2000 simulation
Changing solar forcing and
time variable volcanic load;
greenhouse gases
Spin-up 1450-1550
Forced Simulation
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Late Maunder Minimum
Cold winters and springs, 1675-1710
Late Maunder Minimum
Cold winters and springs, 1675-1710
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Temperature conditions in Switzerland according to Pfister‘s classification.
From Luterbacher, 2001
Climate model used
Atmosphere: ECHAM4
horizontal resolution T30 ~ 300 km at mid latitudes
Ocean: HOPE-G
horizontal resolution T42 ~ 200 km at mid latitudes
increased resolution in the tropics
Model provided as community climate by
Model & Data Group at MPI for Meteorology
and run at German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ)
and computing facilities at FZ Jülich
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effective solar output
methane (ppb)
CO2 (ppm)
control
forced
1675-1710vs. 1550-1800
Reconstruction from historical evidence, from Luterbacher et al.
Model-based reconstuction
Late Maunder Minimum
validation
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Air pressure difference, 1675-1710 vs. 1550-1800
hPa
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Model as a constructive tool
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I f KGlobal 1675-1710 temperature anomaly
Model as a constructive tool
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Coral-estimated SST for a location off Madagaskar
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ke, p
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validation
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Galapagos (E-Pacific, 1oS, 90oW, Dunbar et al., 1994):
367 years of coral 18O records from 1587-1953, with annual resolution. The intervals 1660-80, 1710-1800 and 1870-95 were found warmer than “normal”, whereas the intervals 1600-1660, 1680-1700 (LMM) and 1800-25 cooler than on average. 18O increases of about 0.1-0.15‰ heavier during LMM than between 1660-70 and 1705-50 is indicative for a cooling of 0.5-0.75K.
New Caledonia (SW-Pacific, 22oS, 166oE, Quinn et al., 1998):
335 years of coral 18O records from 1657-1952, with seasonal resolution. The records describe a brief interval of modest cooling in the late 17th century, with an annual mean SST about 0.2-0.3K cooler between 1680-1740 than between 1660-80 and 1740-50
Great Barrier Reef, Abraham Reef (SW-Pacific, 22oS, 153oE, Druffel and Griffin, 1993):
323 years of coral 18O records from 1635-1957, with bi-annual resolution. More positive 18O values (ca. 0.1‰) during the LMM, are consistent with lower SST’s of about 0.5K
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cold
warm
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D'Arrigo and Jacoby.
Reconstructed mean annual temperatures for northern North America Inst
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(679
pp)
Simulated differences of ice coverage, in percent, during the LMM event 1675-1710 and the long term mean 1550-1800.
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Model as a constructive tool
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ConclusionsConclusions
• 1675-1715 LMM was a significant winter climate anomalywell documented in Europe
coincident with solar anomalies
• Similar winter anomalies simulated in 1550-2000 AOGCM,forced transiently with anomalous solar output
and volcanic aerosol load
• In the model, the LMM appears as global phenomenonwith maxium effects on the Northern Hemisphere
in particular in the Labrador Sea
• Anomaly results of dynamical interplay of atmosphere and ocean
• Anomaly reminiscent of Great Salt Anomaly
• 1675-1715 LMM was a significant winter climate anomalywell documented in Europe
coincident with solar anomalies
• Similar winter anomalies simulated in 1550-2000 AOGCM,forced transiently with anomalous solar output
and volcanic aerosol load
• In the model, the LMM appears as global phenomenonwith maxium effects on the Northern Hemisphere
in particular in the Labrador Sea
• Anomaly results of dynamical interplay of atmosphere and ocean
• Anomaly reminiscent of Great Salt Anomaly
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LMM?
Dalton?