Skynet is coming!Deepak Azad
M.Sc. Student, Computer ScienceJunior Fellows Speaker Series
St. John’s College UBCImage: http://www.itweapons.com/tedblog/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/skynet.jpgFeb 19, 2013
Wait… What is Skynet?
Image: http://www.coverbrowser.com/image/bestselling-movies-2006/1498-1.jpg
Overview
• Do we know how we think?• Machines that can think• How do they work?• Implications for mankind
Do we know how we see?– airplane.mov– http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubNF9QNEQLA
Image: http://bibledaily.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/eye.jpg
Do we know how we think?• The doctor has good news and bad news
• Bad news: You have tested positive for HIV, and that the test is 99% accurate (i.e., the probability of testing positive given that you have the disease is 0.99, as is the probability of testing negative given that you don’t have the disease).
• Good news: Only 1 in 10,000 people are HIV-positive
• How worried should you be?
Image:http://images.sodahead.com/polls/001878683/4411521534_thinking20web20pic_answer_3_xlarge.jpeg
Do we know how we think?• I have some money in my pocket and I will give $100 to the
person(s) who ask the best question(s), as judged by me.
• How many of you think that someone here will get $100?
Image:http://greatlakescustomslaw.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/pocket-full-of-money.jpg
Let’s do the math• Let's say 1,000,000 people took the test. • Number of people who have the disease = 100 (Remember 1 in 10,000)• Number of people who tested positive AND who have the disease
= 0.99 * 100 = 99 • Number of people who tested positive BUT did not have the disease =
0.01 * 999900 = 9999• Probability that you actually have the disease = 99 / (99+9999) = 0.0098
Only 0.98%
http://womenonthefence.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/DontWorryBeHappy.jpg
When should you worry?• Let's say you underwent another test which is also 99% accurate and you
tested positive.
= 49.5%
http://drmichaelroth.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/worry.gif
If all your friends jumped off a bridge…
http://xkcd.com/1170/
Lesson
posterior = likelihood x prioror
new knowledge = data x old knowledge
• This is known as Bayes’ rule
http://skepticism-images.s3-website-us-east-1.amazonaws.com/images/jreviews/Thomas_Bayes.jpg
Lessons
• We only ever see a tiny bit
• We are pretty good at learning from data
• We can recognize patterns quite well
Autonomous Car
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdgQpa1pUUE
Face Recognition
Pedestrian detection
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_wMyUEeIzQ
Twitter Sentiment Analysis
• http://www.sentiment140.com/search?hl=en&query=Toronto%20Maple%20leafs
• http://www.sentiment140.com/search?hl=en&query=Vancouver%20Canucks
• http://www.sentiment140.com/search?hl=en&query=Calgary%20flames
Microsoft Kinect
http://boygeniusreport.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/kinect-family-tv.jpg?w=942http://cdn.pocket-lint.com/images/wqZT/harry-potter-microsoft-kinect-xbox-360-1.jpg?20110712-094919
Google Glass
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSnB06um5r4
Source: http://www.cs.ubc.ca/~nando/340-2012/lectures/l1.pdf
How does all this work ?
Hours of Sun
Temperature
Formally
Equation of line :
A little more complicated…
Hours of Sun
Temperature
Using prior knowledge and dealing with uncertanity
Watson playing Jeapordy
Images: http://hypervocal.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/IMG_4219.jpghttp://www.asesoriae.mx/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/jeopardy12_full.jpg
Implications: Will machines take over?
Images: http://img259.imageshack.us/img259/5900/wallecaptainmccreaauto.jpghttp://www.604republic.com/gocms/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/halglados1.jpghttp://www.ameinfo.com/images/news/3/7853-iRobot.jpg
Implications: Will we need to work?
Image: http://culturemediasociety.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/wall-e.png?w=625
Ethics and Morality
• Doctors and Insurance companies use the same tools – one to cure and one to deny insurance
• Should people be allowed to drive?– People’s freedom vs reliable machines
