Important growth in Important growth in Important growth in Important growth in information flowsinformation flowsinformation flowsinformation flows
Smart Distributed
New New New New elementselementselementselementsGeneration
Smartmetering
Distributedstorage
Distributedgeneration
Transport & Distribution
Demand
� High frequency consumption measuring (~6’’ intervals). Need to manage high volumes of information (Big Data approach)
Distributedstorage
Distributedgeneration
Smartmetering
� Enables demand management
� Enables consumer’s electric appliances identification (load signature)
� Solar PV: Competitive by 2020 (Grid Parity )
� Relevant for supply of individual homes
Smartmetering
Distributedstorage
Distributedgeneration
� Capture of high share of future demand growth
Positive Positive Positive Positive feedbackfeedbackfeedbackfeedback looplooplooploop
Distributed generation & storage
Smartmetering
Distributedstorage
Distributedgeneration
Higher T&D operational
costs
Lower customer base to
share costs
Higher competitive-ness of self consumption
Higher retail cost
per customer
� Evolution driven by different industries, such as electric vehicles. Competitive in the beginning of next decade
Smartmetering
Distributedgeneration
Distributedstorage
� With distributed generation, allows for self-sufficiency
� Drives changes of demand curve shape. Reduces uses of peak shaving plants
HighHighHighHigh valuevaluevaluevalue in new in new in new in new segmentssegmentssegmentssegments
Distr. Generation
Today Evolution
Distr. Generation
Services
retail
Metering
Distribition
Transport
Generation
� Need of Transport and Distribution networks upgrading…◦ Allow for multidirectional flows
◦ Smart control systems
� … having a small or even negative demand growth◦ Due to self-consumption and higher efficiencies
PlayerPlayerPlayerPlayer SectorSectorSectorSector
na Data management
Consumer servicesConsumer services
Smart metersRetail
Solar panel installation, financing and management
RisksRisksRisksRisks OpportunitiesOpportunitiesOpportunitiesOpportunities
Falling cost of capital for new players:
• Leasing• Crowdfunding + VC• Low interest rates
High size and low cost of capital
Consumer vs. connecting Experience in services and Consumer vs. connecting point
Experience in services and financing
Low level of I+D Customer base
New players with experience in other businesses
Presence in whole value chain. Potential synergies
Cross subsidies in regulated costs
Network upgrading
� Utilities face a revolution as deep as the one telecommunications faced in the last two decades
� Trend towards datification of business and leisureTrend towards datification of business and leisure
◦ Domotics and the internet of things will give consumers high control over their consumption
◦ More widely, information flows allow for a higher integration of all kind of services (smartcities)
� Utilities need to capitalize their current advantages before they erode. Even if that means hurting current businesses
� Early positioning (joint ventures, start-up support) may be done at a small cost, Early positioning (joint ventures, start-up support) may be done at a small cost, compared to the impact of not acting
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GNF
Iberdrola
GSZ
EON
RWE
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Germany is pioneering distributed energy penetration. It’s utilities have lost an important share of value compared to European peers.
� Resource Resource Resource Resource RevolutionRevolutionRevolutionRevolutionHeck, Rogers y Carroll, Abril 2014
� Retail EnergyRetail EnergyRetail EnergyRetail EnergyBrock, Lehrke, Saleh y Yousif. BCG Perspectives, Junio 2014
� Distributed Energy: A disruptive forceDistributed Energy: A disruptive forceDistributed Energy: A disruptive forceDistributed Energy: A disruptive force� Distributed Energy: A disruptive forceDistributed Energy: A disruptive forceDistributed Energy: A disruptive forceDistributed Energy: A disruptive forceBake, Maciel, Dean, Sesahdri y Gee. BCG Perspectives, Julio 2014
� The disruptive potential of solar powerThe disruptive potential of solar powerThe disruptive potential of solar powerThe disruptive potential of solar powerFrankel, Ostrowski y Pinner. McKinsey Quarterly, Abril 2014
� Grid Energy StorageGrid Energy StorageGrid Energy StorageGrid Energy StorageU.S. Department of Energy, Diciembre 2013