WISE M NEY
®
A Weekly Update from SMC(For private circulation only)2013: Issue 400, Week: 9th - 12th December
Bra
nd
sm
c 2
23
(Saurabh Jain)
Contents
Equity 4-7
Derivatives 8-9
Commodity 10-13
Currency 14
IPO 15
Fixed Deposit 16
Mutual Fund 17-18
EDITORIAL STAFF
Editor Saurabh Jain
Executive Editor Jagannadham Thunuguntla
+Editorial Team
Dr. R.P. Singh Nitin Murarka
Vandana Bharti Tejas Seth
Sandeep Joon Dinesh Joshi
Vineet Sood Shitij Gandhi
Dhirender Singh Bisht Subhranil Dey
Parminder Chauhan Ajay Lakra
Mudit Goyal
Content Editor Kamla Devi
Graphic Designer Pramod Chhimwal
Research Executive Sonia Bamba
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he markets across the globe rallied during the November month, led by
easing of fears of US Fed tapering as well as improving economic data Tpoints, but the first week of December witnessed a sense of nervousness
in the markets. Actually, better-than-expected economic growth and weekly
jobless claims reports have raised concern that Fed may pare back monthly bond
purchases in the coming months. Moreover, in the recent European Central Bank
meeting, Mario Draghi gave no fresh indication that it would ease policy anytime
soon and this supported the market. But he said that the ECB is "ready and able to
act" if inflation shows signs of being too low for too long. Also, the Japan's cabinet
has approved a $182 billion package to pull the economy out of deflation. No
doubt, an improving U.S. economy, China's biggest export market, and Central
Bankers efforts to support their respective economy have brightened the outlook
for 2014. Actually markets across the world were affected by the fear of tapering
US quantitative easing programme, strengthening of the US dollar, and slowdown
in China and other developed countries.
Back at home, if BJP comes into power in all four states, market sentiment is
likely to improve from here. However, the 2014 general elections are likely to be
a "big swing factor" for the Indian stock market going ahead. India will always
remain favorable destination for FII as they stick to companies' fundamentals and
their performances before making an investment decision. India's Index of
Industrial Production (IIP) number, which is scheduled to be released on 12th
December, is likely to remain muted due to decline in output of eight core sector
industries. The eight core industries have a combined weight of about 38 per cent
in the IIP. The Fed meeting scheduled on 17th -18th December, 2013 and the RBI
monetary policy meeting scheduled on 18 December will also be important
events to watch out for.
As regards commodities market, it was really choppy last week owing to various
news and events. The bullion counter saw wild swings ahead of expiry. Supply
tightness added premium in gold in the physical market. OPEC agreed to keep its
production quota unchanged at 30 million barrels a day at least until June even as
Libya, Iran and Iraq plan to boost exports in coming months. Fed next meet on
Dec. 17-18 will give next direction to the commodities prices. Here at home,
elections results of various states will give impact on the currency move, which
ultimately influence the commodities prices in the domestic market.
From The Desk Of Editor
4
NOTES:
1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of "Morning Mantra ".
2) S1 & S2 indicate first support & second support respectively & R1 & R2 indicate first resistance and second resistance respectively.
3) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.
TREND SHEET
Stocks Closing Trend Date Rate S1 R1 S2 R2 Cl.
Price Trend Trend S/l
Changed Changed
SENSEX 20958 UP 12.09.13 19317 20200 19800 19400
S&P NIFTY 6241 UP 12.09.13 5728 5850 5750 5780
CNX IT 8835 UP 18.07.13 7306 8500 8200 8000
CNX BANK 11665 UP 19.09.13 11149 11000 10600 10500
ACC 1107 DOWN 13.11.13 1041 1080 1100 1120
BHARTIAIRTEL 335 UP 12.09.13 329 340 330 320
BHEL 171 UP 05.09.13 138 155 150 145
CIPLA 388 DOWN 21.11.13 387 405 410 415
DLF 156 DOWN 26.09.13 136 150 160 165
HINDALCO 122 UP 29.08.13 107 110 105 100
ICICI BANK 1136 UP 12.09.13 951 1060 1020 1000
INFOSYS 3351 UP 18.07.13 2800 3200 3070 3020
ITC 309 DOWN 13.11.13 314 330 336 340
L&T 1086 UP 19.09.13 888 1020 980 950
MARUTI 1700 UP 19.09.13 1480 1600 1570 1530
NTPC 144 UP 26.09.13 150 145 140 135
ONGC 291 UP 31.10.13 294 280 270 265
RELIANCE 871 UP 12.09.13 875 850 840 830
TATASTEEL 421 UP 22.08.13 274 380 360 350
NEWS
DOMESTIC NEWS
Economy
•India's current account deficit fell to $5.2 billion, equivalent to 1.2 percent of gross domestic product, from $21 billion or 5 percent of GDP registered during the same period of last year. The lower current account deficit was primarily on account of a decline in the trade deficit as merchandise exports picked up and imports moderated, particularly gold imports.
•According to a survey by Markit Economics and HSBC, India's service sector business activity contracted for a fifth consecutive month in November. The headline seasonally adjusted business activity index, a gauge of service sector performance, posted 47.2 in November, up slightly from 47.1 in October. Readings below 50 suggest contraction of the sector.
Automobile
•Tata Motors will invest around 30 million pounds (over Rs 300 crore) in the National Automotive Innovation Campus (NAIC), as part of its commitment for long term R&D in the UK.
Diamonds, Gems and Jewellery
•Titan Company Ltd has forayed into the `400 crore organised helmet market under its Fastrack brand, priced between ̀ 1,495 and ̀ 3,495.
Oil & Gas
•Petronet LNG Ltd, India's largest buyer of liquid gas, has hired a fourth LNG ship from a consortium of state-owned Shipping Corp of India (SCI) and Japanese lines for $75,000-80,000 per day.
Telecom
•Idea Cellular has received a grant of over $1 million from the US Trade & Development Agency (USTDA) to fund a pilot project involving deployment of Solar Hybrid Methanol-Based Fuel Cell (SHMBFC) at telecom sites in India.
Pharmaceuticals
•Strides Arcolab, the publicly held pharmaceutical company, has completed the sale of Agila Specialties to Nasdaq-listed Mylan Inc for a total consideration of upto $1.75 billion.
Power
•NTPC announced that its Unit-I of 660 MW of Barh Super Thermal Power Project Stage-Il has been commissioned effective from 30 November 2013 and the total installed capacity of NTPC group has become 42454 MW.
•Reliance Power announced that pre-commissioning activities have commenced for its Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) project in Rajasthan's Jaisalmer district based on CLFR technology. The 100 MW CSP plant is being built at a cost of ̀ 2100 crores, adjacent to 40 MW solar photovoltaic projects commissioned by the company last year.
Engineering
•IL&FS Transportation Networks announced that its subsidiary, ITNL International in Singapore has entered into a joint venture agreement with companies established and existing under the laws of China namely, Chongqing Expressway Group Company, Jiangsu Transportation Institute and China Railway 13th Bureau Group Co.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
•US new home sales jumped 25.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 444,000 in October after sliding 6.6 percent to 354,000 in September. Economists had expected new home sales to come in at a rate of 425,000.
•US trade deficit narrowed to $40.6 billion in October from a revised $43.0 billion in September. The narrower deficit came as the value of exports jumped 1.8 percent to $192.7 billion in October from $189.3 billion in September. The value of imports showed a more modest increase, edging up by 0.4 percent to $233.3 billion in October from $232.3 billion in the previous month.
•US non-manufacturing index fell to 53.9 in November from 55.4 in October, hitting its lowest level since June. A reading above 50 indicates continued growth in the service sector, but economists had expected the index to inch up to a reading of 55.5.
•The ECB has kept its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 0.25%. The decision follows its surprise cut from 0.5% in November.
•Eurozone's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded 0.1 percent quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter after exiting the region's longest-ever recession in the second quarter with a GDP growth of 0.3 percent.
•Euro Area retail sales volume decreased 0.2 percent month-on-month in October, following a 0.6 percent fall in September. Economists had forecast sale to stay unchanged in October.
EX-DATE SYMBOL PURPOSE
9-DEC-13 COLPAL SECOND INTERIM DIVIDEND - `9/- PER SHARE
10-DEC-13 ONGC INTERIM DIVIDEND
12-Dec-13 VIDEOIND DIVIDEND - `2/- PER SHARE
18-DEC-13 HCLTECH FINAL DIVIDEND - `6.00
18-DEC-13 ALOKTEXT DIVIDEND - `0.30/- PER SHARE
19-DEC-13 EDL DIVIDEND - `1/- PER SHARE
BOARD MEETING SYMBOL PURPOSE
9-DEC-13 MAHABANK PREFERENTIAL ISSUE
9-DEC-13 AHLUCONT RIGHT ISSUE
10-DEC-13 STAR DIVIDEND
12-DEC-13 VIJAYABANK PREFERENTIAL ISSUE
13-DEC-13 HEXAWARE AMENDMENTS IN ARTICLES OF ASSOC.,CHANGE IN DIRECTORS
16-DEC-13 PNB PREFERENTIAL ISSUE
16-DEC-13 IOB PREFERENTIAL ISSUE
16-DEC-13 CORPBANK PREFERENTIAL ISSUE,PRIVATE PLACEMENT BASIS,QUALIFIED INSTITUTIONS PLACEMENTS
19-DEC-13 ANDHRABANK PREFERENTIAL ISSUE,RAISING OF CAPITAL,QUALIFIED INSTITUTIONS PLACEMENTS
20-DEC-14 MIRC RIGHT ISSUE,RAISING FUNDS THROUGH DEBT INSTR.
24-DEC-14 DENABANK PREFERENTIAL ISSUE
24-DEC-14 ALLAHABAD BANK PREFERENTIAL ISSUE,QUALIFIED INSTITUTIONS PLACEMENTS
26-DEC-14 IDEA FII INVESTMENT
30-DEC-14 CANBK RAISING OF CAPITAL
FORTHCOMING EVENTS
®
5
BSE SENSEX GAINERS & LOSERS TOP (% Change) NSE NIFTY GAINERS TOP & LOSERS (% Change)
SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)
SMC Trend
SMC Trend
FMCGHealthcare
FTSE 100CAC 40
Auto BankRealty
Cap GoodsCons Durable
Oil & GasPower
NasdaqDow jonesS&P 500
NikkeiStrait times
Hang SengShanghai
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Equity) (` Crore)
ITMetal
Down SidewaysUp
SMC Trend
Nifty BSE Midcap Nifty JuniorSensex BSE Smallcap S&P CNX 500
GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)
INDIAN INDICES (% Change)
®
745.60794.50
521.90
167.70181.60
-171.50-239.10
54.40
-400.00
-200.00
0.00
200.00
400.00
600.00
800.00
1000.00
Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday
FII Activity MF Activity
9.34 9.29
6.39
5.15 4.97
-4.72
-3.51-2.89 -2.58
-2.24
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
Jindal Steel B H E L ICICI Bank Tata Steel Tata Power Co.
Hind. Unilever
ITC Dr Reddy's Labs
O N G C NTPC
9.599.26
8.51
7.40 7.28
-4.94
-3.64
-2.82 -2.74-2.31
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
B H E L Jindal Steel I D F C Axis Bank NMDC Hind. Unilever
ITC Dr Reddy's Labs
O N G C NTPC
1.05
0.80
0.51
1.70
0.38
0.94
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
Nifty Sensex BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap
Nifty Junior S&P CNX 500
-0.65
-0.14
-3.02
-0.24
4.46
3.87
0.14
2.63
0.58
2.24
0.51
-4.00
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
Auto Index
BankexCap Goods
Index
Cons
Durable Index
FMCG Index
Healthcare
Index
IT Index
Metal Index
Oil & Gas
Index
Power Index
Realty Index
-0.66
-1.65
-1.15
-3.09
-1.64
-0.71
1.20
-2.29
-4.55-5.00
-4.00
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
Nasdaq
Comp.
Dow Jones S&P 500 Nikkei Strait Times Hang Seng Shanghai
Comp.
FTSE 100 CAC 40
Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis
6
® Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1 year. Source: Company Website Reuters Capitaline
NEYVELI LIGNITE CORPORATION LTD CMP: 60.75 Upside: 35%Target Price: 82
Face Value (`) 10.00
52 Week High/Low 87.80/49.00
M.Cap (`Cr.) 10192.09
EPS (`) 7.55
P/E Ratio (times) 8.05
P/B Ratio (times) 0.79
Dividend Yield (%) 4.61
Stock Exchange BSE
VALUE PARAMETERS
% OF SHARE HOLDING
Investment Rationale Mozambique, USA and Colambia.
•Neyveli Lignite Corporation Limited, a “Navratna” •For the Audited full year, net profit rose 3.3% to Government of India Enterprise, is engaged in `1457.75 crore in the year ended March 2013 as lignite excavation and power generation using against `1411.33 crore during the previous year lignite excavated. Currently, the Government owns ended March 2012. Sales rose 14.9% to `5590.07 90 per cent in this company. crore in the year ended March 2013 as against
`4866.85 crore during the previous year ended •The aggregate installed capacity of all lignite mines March 2012.stands at 30.6 MTPA as on 31st March, 2013 and the
present installed capacity of thermal power plants of your Company is 2740 MW. Valuation
•The company would invest `29,239 crore in coal The company has been adhering to normal production and power sectors during the 12th five year plan. schedule. The company was looking to acquire two to The company would invest `26,728 crore in power three assets abroad for supply of two to 10 million projects and ̀ 2,510 crore in coal projects. NLC will tonnes of coal in a year. On the estimated FY15E EPS expand a number of ongoing projects which include of `8.99 and two year average P/Ex of 9.09x, we mines at Neyveli and Barsingsar in Rajasthan and expect the stock to see a price target of `82 in one power plant at Tuticorin during the period. year time frame.
•The company plans to setup a wind farm with the investment of `364.75 crore and solar power project at a cost of ̀ 13,319 crore. The corporation has been already working on the Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) Projects. The UCG project at Raneri in Rajasthan would be taken up through a suitable developer through competitive bidding while the projects in Rajasthan and Gujarat would be implemented jointly with Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC).
•The company has floated Expression of Interest for acquiring coal assets abroad and for long-term supplies for the upcoming power plants and is looking at such supplies from Indonesia, Australia,
` in cr
Actual Estimate FY Mar-13 FY Mar-14 FY Mar-15Revenue 5590.10 6065.40 6499.80EBITDA 2007.10 2278.80 2488.10EBIT 1494.80 1903.20 2111.80Pre-tax Profit 1884.30 1940.60 2189.50Net Profit 1297.40 1326.40 1516.10EPS 7.73 8.57 8.99BVPS 77.19 83.52 90.36ROE 10.40 10.50 10.80
P/BV Chart
Face Value (`) 2.00
52 Week High/Low 744.05/443.00
M.Cap (`Cr.) 8207.42
EPS (`) 24.97
P/E Ratio (times) 26.05
P/B Ratio (times) 5.28
Dividend Yield (%) 0.61
Stock Exchange BSE
` in cr
Actual Estimate
FY Mar-13 FY Mar-14 FY Mar-15
Revenue 2753.70 3290.50 3836.60
EBITDA 623.20 770.40 903.30
EBIT 536.50 672.80 796.50
Pre-tax Profit 454.30 606.60 782.10
Net Profit 323.60 475.20 582.60
EPS 25.65 38.19 46.21
BVPS 123.12 153.13 203.20
ROE 23.00 26.60 26.50
% OF SHARE HOLDING
Investment Rationale •The margins are higher and had positive impact due to currency gains, positive inventory impact •IPCA Laboratories is a fast growing pharmaceutical (40% are imports, benefited inventory valuation), major, with a strong thrust on exports. The and the rest is due to the better product mix and company exports to over 120 countries. Ipca higher realizations during the quarter.Laboratories is vertically integrated and produces
•Net profit of Ipca Laboratories rose 3.49% to finished dosage forms and APIs. The Company has `129.45 crore in the quarter ended September 10,909 permanent employees as on 31st March, 2013 as against `125.09 crore during the previous 2013 out of which 5,568 employees are engaged in
the marketing and distribution of Company's quarter ended September 2012. Sales rose 10.13% pharmaceuticals. to `834.27 crore in the quarter ended September
2013 as against `757.52 crore during the previous •The company has planned a capital expenditure quarter ended September 2012.of `300-325 crore for the FY14. The majority of
the Capex will go to the expanding the Valuationformulation facilities.With the increasing market share and robust product •The US FDA found acceptable the Company's oral pipeline in key products, revival of ani-malaria solid dosage formulations manufacturing facility segment revenues; company's revenue flow looks situated at Pharmazone, Special Economic zone visible. On the estimated FY15E EPS of `46.21 and (SEZ) Indore, Pithampur, Madhya Pradesh. This three year average P/Ex of 19.10x, we expect the will enable the Company to commercialize oral stock to see a price target of 883 in one year time solid dosage formulations in the US market from frame.this formulations manufacturing facility. It
expects the shipments to start in Q4'FY14. Once this facility commences, it expects the incremental business to the US market will be `80-100 crore for FY'15.
•It has filed 36 ANDAs and received approval for the 20 products (commercialized 9) with US FDA as on 30th September 2013.
•The company has entered into an agreement with Avik Pharmaceutical (Avik) to acquire 50% of its paid-up equity share capital, partly through purchase of equity shares from its existing shareholders and partly through subscription to its fresh equity share capital on a preferential allotment basis, both aggregating to approx ̀ 6.51 crore.
P/E Chart
IPCA LABORATORIES LTD CMP: 650.35 Upside: 36%Target Price: 883VALUE PARAMETERS
Foreign
Institutions
Non Promoter Corporate Holding
Promoters
Public & Others
25.59
12.35
5.19
45.89
10.98
Foreign
Institutions
Non Promoter Corporate Holding
Promoters
Public & Others
0.14
4.81
0.16
90
4.89
Charts by Spider Software India Ltd
7
The stock closed at `347.50 on 06th December 2013. It made a 52-week low at
272.20 on 28th August 2013 and a 52-week high at 395.85 on 18th January
2013. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly
chart is currently at 352.70.
It has formed base at lower levels and trading near its 200 EMA in last few weeks.
Looking at the volume, we anticipate that it will give a sharp rise in the near
term and reach our desired targets. One can Buy 342-344 levels with closing
below stop loss of 328 levels for the target of 365-370 levels.
` `
`
EQUITY
Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months
The stock closed at 394.50 on 06th December 2013. It made a 52-week low at
289.50 on 28th August 2013 and a 52-week high at 507.95 on 07th January
2013. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly
chart is currently at 474.61.
It has come out of consolidation and last week it gave a sharp spurt with
volumes, which is a bullish sign. One can Buy in the range of 389-391 levels with
closing below stop loss of 377 levels for the target of 410-420 levels.
`
` `
`
The stock closed at 78.80 on 06th December 2013. It made a 52-week low at
47.20 on 28th August 2013 and a 52-week high of 86.80 on 09th January 2013.
The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart
is currently at 69.66.
It has crossed its 200 EMA, which is indication of upward momentum. One can
Buy in the range of 75-77 levels with closing below stop loss of 69 levels for the
target of 89-91 levels.
`
` `
`
GAIL
UCOBANK
RELCAPITAL
®
DERIVATIVES
BASIS GAP IN NIFTY
The Index traded sideways with positive bias throughout the week. Overall market cost-of-carry increased on the back of addition in open interest on the long side
indicating long buildup from current level. The month of December began with good rollover with positive cost of carry indicating long carry forward, but post election
poll results Nifty saw gap up opening and profit booking from resistance of 6300 levels. The scenario in the market currently remains bullish. Nifty December futures
closed with 60 points premium. Hereafter, the range of 6220-6300 will remain crucial in the near term. Breach below the 6200 mark could see the Index declining
sharply to 6000 levels. Put-call ratio of open interest closed at 1.02 indicating call writing. Options open interest concentration shifted to the 6000 strike put option
with open interest of above 50 lakh shares. The 6500 call-option strikes have maximum IO of more than 60 lakh shares. The implied volatility (IV) of call options closed
at 21.86%. While the average IV of put options was 22.10%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 22.21. Short term indicators are indicating upside momentum to
continue above 6220. It is likely to hover in the range of 6200-6500 levels for the week. The Index is likely to test the 6400 mark.
WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET
NIFTY TOTAL OPEN INTEREST (in share)
FIIs ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE (F&O) IN LAST WEEK
(Derivative segment)
®
FIIs ACTIVITY IN F&O IN LAST TEN SESSIONS
(Derivative segment) `(Cr)
ALBK (DEC FUTURE)
Buy: Around `94
Target: `98
Stop loss: `92.5
LIC HOUSING
Buy DEC 200. PUT 6.30
Sell DEC 190. PUT 3.20
Lot size: 1000
BEP: 196.9
Max. Profit: 6900.00 (6.90*1000)
Max. Loss: 3100.00 ( 3.10*1000)
OPTIONSTRATEGY
FUTURESTRATEGY
TITAN
Buy DEC 240. CALL 5.35
Sell DEC 250. CALL 2.75
Lot size: 1000
BEP: 242.60
Max. Profit: 7400.00 (7.40*1000)
Max. Loss: 2600.00 ( 2.60*1000)
GODREJ IND
Buy DEC 290. CALL 7.45
Sell DEC 300. CALL 3.50
Lot size: 1000
BEP: 294.95
Max. Profit: 6050.00 (6.05*1000)
Max. Loss: 3950.00 ( 3.95*1000)
BULLISH STRATEGY
DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES
GODREJ IND (DEC FUTURE)
Buy: `285
Target: `292
Stop loss: `281
Around
BEARISH STRATEGY
TATA MOTOR (DEC FUTURE)
Sell: `392
Target: `384
Stop loss: `396
Below
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
1113750
409050 499200 560950
17328501657400
2367500
4170700
5646200 5783200
4074100
3274150
1735950
36343503339600
4864100
3738200
3964400
1848700
629550987000
431550
5500 5700 5800 5900 6000 6100 6200 6300 6400 6500 6600
Call Put
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
21-Nov 22-Nov 25-Nov 26-Nov 27-Nov 28-Nov 29-Nov 02-Dec 03-Dec 04-Dec 05-Dec
BUY81.9%
SELL18.1%
-780.17
-337.02
-896.72
426.94
1300.90
2047.791884.51
1670.24
1272.35
2921.53
-1500.00
-1000.00
-500.00
0.00
500.00
1000.00
1500.00
2000.00
2500.00
3000.00
3500.00
22-Nov 25-Nov 26-Nov 27-Nov 28-Nov 29-Nov 02-Dec 03-Dec 04-Dec 05-Dec
8
9
BHARTIARTL 12726000 12472000 -2.00 0.40 0.51 0.11 31.98 33.47 1.49
DLF 26697000 26414000 -1.06 0.46 0.52 0.06 52.70 54.15 1.45
HINDALCO 21338000 22292000 4.47 0.59 0.58 -0.01 39.77 41.99 2.22
HINDUNILVR 4406500 5628000 27.72 1.03 0.57 -0.46 20.66 21.95 1.29
ICICIBANK 10134000 9780250 -3.49 0.64 1.04 0.40 35.48 40.25 4.77
IDEA 7448000 6976000 -6.34 0.38 0.41 0.03 36.21 33.93 -2.28
INFY 3042250 3176000 4.40 1.05 0.85 -0.20 18.29 18.76 0.47
ITC 26233000 31152000 18.75 0.58 0.43 -0.15 23.94 25.65 1.71
JPASSOCIAT 54948000 50288000 -8.48 0.86 0.87 0.01 64.11 66.91 2.80
NTPC 12818000 15948000 24.42 0.46 0.50 0.04 24.72 26.17 1.45
ONGC 10187000 11361000 11.52 0.71 0.56 -0.15 29.97 29.49 -0.48
RANBAXY 10543500 10433000 -1.05 0.55 0.57 0.02 41.90 43.93 2.03
RCOM 33800000 34916000 3.30 0.58 0.52 -0.06 44.47 48.89 4.42
RELIANCE 12910500 12429750 -3.72 0.49 0.58 0.09 24.32 25.24 0.92
NIFTY 18177100 19039750 4.75 1.16 1.02 -0.14 20.68 21.86 1.18
SAIL 19960000 20068000 0.54 0.49 0.62 0.13 40.47 37.06 -3.41
SBIN 5847250 5812000 -0.60 0.90 0.99 0.09 34.64 37.95 3.31
TATASTEEL 14751000 15907000 7.84 0.96 1.24 0.28 35.31 38.20 2.89
UNITECH 120680000 123936000 2.70 0.44 0.34 -0.10 59.13 79.04 19.91
IMPORTANT INDICATORS OF NIFTY AND OTHER ACTIVE FUTURE CONTRACTS
OPEN INTEREST PCR RATIO IMPLIED VOLATILITY
SCRIPTS PREV.* CURRENT** % PREV.* CURRENT** PREV. CURRENT WEEK WEEK CHANGE WEEK WEEK CHANGE WEEK WEEK CHANGE
DERIVATIVES
Put Call Ratio Analysis : The Put-Call open interest ratio of Nifty has decreased
to 1.02 from 1.16. At the end of the week, the maximum stocks had a positive of
change in put call open interest ratio.
Implied Volatility Analysis : The Implied Volatility (IV) for Nifty futures this week
has increased to 21.86% from 20.68%. The IV of the stock futures has changed this
week ranging from -3.41% to 19.91%.
Open Interest Analysis : The open interest for the index at the end of this week
has increased by 4.75% as compared to the previous week. All future stocks saw
changes in their open interest ranging from -8.48% to 27.72%. HINDUNILVR has
the maximum increase in open interest as compared to other stocks.
Statistical Analysis·
Open 6162.00 High 6341.40
Low 6148.80 Close 6279.95
NIFTY & IV CHART NIFTY ANALYSIS
®* Nov Series ** Dec Series
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
6000
6100
6200
6300
6400
29-Nov 02-Dec 03-Dec 04-Dec
Nifty Close IV
10
®
Turmeric futures (Apr) is expected to consolidate in the range of 5600-5800 levels. The upside may remain capped on the back of slack upcountry orders and arrival of poor quality turmeric. Moreover, there are talks that the new harvesting season of turmeric crop might begin from the end-December in some parts of Andhra Pradesh due to early plantation by farmers. The fresh arrivals of turmeric in Andhra Pradesh normally begins from mid- January. So anticipation of early harvesting of the new crop has propelled strong stockist selling in local mandies. Cardamom futures (Jan) will possibly plunge further breaching 720 levels. Market participants are keeping away from fresh buying, in fear that the counter may fall further if arrivals continue to remain at current levels. On the contrary, a stronger rupee at high of 61.52 against the dollar, its strongest level since Oct 31, is trimming the profit margins of exporters. The total arrivals during the season up to December 1 were 9,001 tonnes as against 4,596 tonnes during the same period a year ago. Sales totalled 8,792 tonnes and 4,379 tonnes respectively. The weighted average price as on December 1 stood at around `605.31 a kg against `758.44 a kg as on the same date a year ago. Jeera futures (Mar) might slip further breaching 12700 levels. It being indicated that the sowing is turning normal after weather disturbances in Gujrat and some southern states. Moreover, the higher stocks in Unjha mandi around 8 – 10 lakh bags is adding to the bearish momentum.
SPICES
Bullion counter is expected to remain on subdued path on the fear that Federal Reserve will curb stimulus as the US economy strengthens. Local currency rupee can strengthen further and can test 61-60.5 which can keep the yellow metal upside capped. Gold may move in the range of 28300-29900 in MCX. White metal silver can hover in the range of 43000-45800. COMEX gold tumbled 27 percent this year, set for the first annual loss since 2000, on speculation the Fed will begin paring its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases as the economy picks up. Recently Fed Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart stated that any decision to taper should be accompanied by a limit on the size of the program or a timetable for ending it. Policy makers next meet Dec. 17-18. Minutes of the Federal Reserve's October meeting released Nov. 20 showed that policy makers expected an improving economy will allow the central bank to trim its debt purchases in coming months. Bullion rose 70 percent from December 2008 to June 2011 as the central bank pumped more than $2 trillion into the financial system. Gold silver ratio continues to scale higher and can test 65 as silver fell at faster pace than yellow metal. Domestic gold supply restriction may keep the prices on firm note. Gold premiums in India touched a record high at $160 an ounce due to restricted supplies amid wedding season. According to World Gold Council “China's gold supply shortfall is expected to reach 700-800 tonnes this year due to strong physical demand”
BULLIONS
Recovery in Crude oil can persist further amid falling inventories and improvement in US economic numbers. According to Energy Information Administration data “Crude inventories slid for the first time in 11 weeks in the period ended Nov. 29”. U.S. gross domestic product expanded at a 3.6 percent annual rate in the third quarter. Overall crude oil can move in the range of 5850-6250 in MCX and $94-100 in NYMEX. Refineries boosted their operating rate to 92.4 percent, the most since September. Weekly petroleum consumption climbed 1.7 percent last week to 20 million barrels a day. Brent and WTI crude oil spread can narrow further and can test 11 in near term. Recently this spread has narrowed from 17 to 13. West Texas Intermediate's discount to Brent shrank to the narrowest level in two weeks as the U.S. economy improved more than forecast in the third quarter and supply slid amid rising demand. The spread has tightened more than $4 in three days as refineries processed more crude, trimming stockpiles, and TransCanada Corp. (TRP) said it will start a pipeline to Texas from Oklahoma next month. Winter demand can assist Natural gas higher as it can test 265 in MCX. The Energy Information Administration reported that natural-gas stockpiles fell by 162 billion cubic feet in the week ended Nov. 29, the biggest withdrawal since February. According to MDA Weather Services” Intense, potentially record-breaking cold" could spread across the nation in the next week to 10 days, starting on the West Coast”
ENERGY COMPLEX
OTHER COMMODITIES
Guar complex is likely to remain stable supported by factors such as lower level buying by guargum millers along with restricted supplies by stockiest in local mandies. Farmers have started bringing in supplies from the new harvest into local markets. Daily arrivals have been around 80,000-100,000 bags (100 kg each). Sugar futures (Jan) will possibly test 2730 levels, pressurized by ample supply from mills. It is being reported that the mills in Uttar Pradesh, the largest cane grower in India, will start operating by Dec. 12. Adding to it, inventories in India surged to a five-year high of 8.85 million tonnes at the start of this season, enough to meet demand for four months. On the demand side, exports demand is bleak in near term as raw sugar on ICE Futures U.S. in New York made a low of 16.55 levels, the lowest for a most-active contract since Sept. 9, extending the longest slide since August 2012. As cited by the Office of the Cane and Sugar Board of Thailand, the country aims to increase sugar production by 10% to 11 million metric tonnes even after crushing was delayed. Kapas futures (Apr) is expected to trade in the range of 915-960 levels. The Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) will open 91 purchasing centres in Andhra Pradesh for the 2013-14 season, to procure cotton damaged in the recent cyclones and floods, besides procuring cotton from other parts of the State. Globally, according to International Cotton Advisory Committee in 2013/14 world production is expected to outpace world consumption with 2013/14 world production projected at 25.6 million tons, down by 1.2 million tons from last season. World cotton consumption is forecast at 23.8 million tons in 2013/14, up 2% from last season with an upward revision of 85,000 tons in India from last month.
Base metals complex may trade in range with some buying seen at the lower levels. China plans to roll out financial sector reforms in the Shanghai special economic zone in the next three months and most will be implemented in a year as leaders quicken the implementation of reforms to support growth. Red metal copper can trade in the range of 440-460. Russia may scrap a 5 percent export duty on nickel and copper in 2014, two years earlier than planned, to support indebted metals and mining companies. Zinc prices can hover in the range of 113-119 in MCX. Nickel prices can trade in the range of 830-900 in MCX. Indonesia, the top exporter of mined nickel stated that plan to ban ore exports will proceed next month. China's refined nickel importers are negotiating 2014 term deals with suppliers that give them the flexibility of adjusting shipment volumes depending on how Indonesia's proposed ban on ore exports turns out. Battery metal lead can move in the range of 125-132. According to the ILZSG data global supply of refined Zinc metal has exceeded demand by 44000 tonne during Jan-June 2013. Total reported inventory levels over this period decreased by 123000 tonne. Aluminum can move in the range of 106-110. Norsk Hydro, one of the world's largest producers of aluminium, will increase capital expenditure by almost 40 percent next year to modernize equipment in expectation of accelerating global demand over the next decade. As per Glencore Xstrata Plc “Indonesia will export 60 million tonnes of nickel ore in 2013 from 45 million tonnes in 2012 due to record shipments to China”
BASE METALS
The short covering in mustard futures (Jan) is likely to remain capped near 3840 levels. According to the Mustard Research and Promotion Consortium (MRPC), India's mustard production is expected to increase by 11% to 78 lakh tonnes as climate conditions are quite favourable for the sowing of crop this year. Refined soy oil futures (Jan) is expected to fall towards 690 levels on lackluster buying against moderate supplies and strong Indian rupee against US dollar, making imports cheaper. The rupee rose to as high as 61.52 against the dollar, its strongest level since Oct 31. Soybean futures (Jan) may test 3650 levels. The oil mills are cautiously buying soybeans as signing new soymeal export deals has become difficult due to disparity in local and overseas prices. Talks of Iranian soy meal buyers may switch to Argentinean and Brazilian buyers due to lower quotes and nuclear deal between Iran and global powers may limit gains. On CBOT, U.S soybean futures are expected to consolidate supported by steady export demand. Sales of just 47,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. On top of the weekly sales, exporters reported a daily sale of 110,000 tonnes of US soybeans to China for the 2014/15 season. CPO futures (Jan) is expected to take support above 560 levels. The monsoon season in Malaysia, which brought heavy rains and thunderstorms over most parts of Peninsular Malaysia, has caused severe floods in low-lying areas where the chunk of the country's oil palm is grown. The rising waters have disrupted harvesting of fresh fruit bunches and cut off transportation to mills.
OIL AND OILSEEDS
Closing as on 05.12.2013
11
NOTES : 1) Buy / Sell 25% of Commodity at S1/R1 respectively & rest 75% at S2/R2 respectively.2) S1 & S2 indicate first support & second support & R1 & R 2 indicate first resistance & second resistance. 3) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the commodity. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly
basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.4) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of Daily report- commodities.
TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS
EXCHANGE CONTRACT CLOSING DATE TREND
PRICE CHANGED CHANGED STOP/LOSS
NCDEX SOYABEAN (DEC) 3756.00 10.10.13 UP 3681.00 3600.00 - 3300.00 - 3050.00
NCDEX JEERA (DEC) 12407.50 03.10.13 DOWN 12607.00 - 13000.00 13500.00 13700.00
NCDEX RED CHILLI (DEC) 6638.00 10.10.13 UP 6074.00 6400.00 - 6200.00 - 6000.00
NCDEX RM SEEDS (DEC) 3716.00 13.11.13 UP 3816.00 3500.00 - 3300.00 - 3100.00
MCX MENTHA OIL (DEC) 865.10 13.11.13 SIDEWAYS
MCX CARDAMOM (JAN) 726.80 28.02.13 DOWN 965.00 - 800.00 830.00 860.00
MCX SILVER (MARCH) 44461.00 26.09.13 DOWN 48639.00 - 48000.00 51000.00 55000.00
MCX GOLD (FEB ) 29205.00 26.09.13 DOWN 29865.00 - 30500.00 31100.00 31800.00
MCX COPPER (FEB) 447.10 12.09.13 DOWN 459.25 - 460.00 - 480.00 490.00
MCX LEAD (DEC ) 128.00 24.10.13 SIDEWAYS
MCX ZINC (DEC ) 116.00 31.10.13 SIDEWAYS
MCX NICKEL(DEC ) 849.50 12.09.13 DOWN 879.20 - 920.00 - 950.00 980.00
MCX ALUMINUM (DEC ) 106.95 26.09.13 DOWN 111.65 - 115.00 - 120.00 125.00
MCX CRUDE OIL (DEC) 6034.00 26.09.13 DOWN 6415.00 - 6200.00 - 6400.00 6550.00
MCX NATURAL GAS (DEC ) 254.50 28.11.13 UP 247.20 230.00 - 220.00 - 210.00
TREND RATE TREND S1 R1 S2 R2 CLOSING
*
TREND SHEET
COMMODITY
NICKEL MCX (DECEMBER) contract closed at ̀ 849.50 on 5th December '13. The contract made its high
of `922.00 on 23rd October '13 and a low of `833.50 on 2nd December '13. The 18-day Exponential
Moving Average of the commodity is currently at ̀ 857. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 40. One can buy in the
range 845-835 with the stop loss of ̀ 825 for a target of ̀ 865.
NATURAL GAS MCX (DECEMBER) contract closed at 254.50 on 5th December '13. The contract made
its high of `255.80 on 6th December '13 and a low of `216.70 on 5th November '13.The 18-day
Exponential Moving Average of the Commodity is currently at ̀ 243.
On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 78.One can buy in the
range 250-247 with the stop loss of ̀ 243 for target of ̀ 260.
`
TURMERIC NCDEX (APRIL) contract closed at 5706.00 on 5th December '13. The contract made its high
of `6092.00 on 19th November '13 and a low of `5440.00 on 6th November '13.The 18-day Exponential
Moving Average of the Commodity is currently at ̀ 5744.
On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 50. One can sell in the
range 5800-5850 with the stop loss of ̀ 6000 for a target of ̀ 5500.
`
®
NICKEL MCX (DECEMBER)
NATURAL GAS MCX (DECEMBER)
TURMERIC NCDEX (APRIL)
COMMODITY
NEWS DIGEST
Commodities traded choppy last week owing to various news and events. Gold witnessed speedy
upside due to fall in dollar index whereas white metals silver was in complete grip of bears. Silver
was six week down, even some rebound in base metals couldn't hold it on upper side. Better-than-
expected U.S. manufacturing data prompted funds to boost their bearish bets in silver. Market
participants were stunned by the magical upside in crude oil. It took support near 5800 in MCX and
breached the mark 0f 6100 on decline in inventory and news of Keystone pipeline supply amid
better economic data's. Crude inventories shrank for the first time in 11 weeks in the U.S. It fell
by 5.59 million barrels last week as refiners boosted processing. OPEC agreed to maintain its
production target at a meeting last week. It agreed to keep its production quota at 30 million
barrels a day at least until June even as Libya, Iran and Iraq plan to boost exports in coming
months. Natural gas continued its upside journey but with slower pace. About 49% of U.S.
households use gas for heating, and 39% use electricity, data show from the EIA show. The peak
heating-demand season extends from November through March. In base metals counter, nickel
and aluminium priced jumped while lead, zinc and copper nosedived.
As regards agro commodities, guargum and guarseed couldn't face their resistance of 15000 and
5400 respectively weak cues from the spot market where supplies from the new season crop were
higher. Even withdrawal of margin couldn't give much support to the prices. NCDEX withdrew a
10% special margin on the long side of all guar seed and guar gum contracts with effect from last
Wednesday. Chana futures dropped due to ongoing sowing, conducive weather and tepid local
demand. Spices were moreover bearish. Turmeric futures knocked down due to subdued demand
for exports amid large carry-forward stocks, while the approaching new season supply also
weighed on sentiment. Stockists were expecting lower prices in coming days due to higher stocks
available in the domestic market in jeera. Steady to weak sentiment witnessed in chilli. In Guntur
region, there is a stock of 18 lakh bags in the cold storages and pressurizes the prices. Higher
arrivals reported last week also pressurizes at prices. Sugar prices fell to their lowest level in
more than two years as most factories started the new crushing season with ample carry-forward
stocks amid sluggish demand from bulk consumers.
WEEKLY COMMENTARY
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)
COMMODITY UNIT 27.11.13 04.12.13 DIFFERENCEQTY.
BARLEY MT 2678.00 2266.00 -412.00
CASTOR SEED MT 49007.00 30238.00 -18769.00
CHANA MT 33588.00 29532.00 -4056.00
CHILLI MT 140.00 170.00 30.00
COTTONSEED OILCAKE MT 0.00 498.00 498.00
JEERA MT 858.00 528.00 -330.00
MAIZE MT 857.00 1675.00 818.00
RAPE MUSTARD SEED MT 12906.00 8909.00 -3997.00
SOYA BEAN SEEDS MT 1295.00 2131.00 836.00
SUGAR M MT 2719.00 1369.00 -1350.00
WHEAT MT 1875.00 0.00 -1875.00
COMMODITY UNIT 28.11.13 05.12.13 DIFFERENCE
QTY. QTY.
CARDAMOM MT 77.50 67.30 -10.20
KAPASIA KHALLI BALES 1381.78 2269.31 887.53
GOLD KGS 61.00 165.00 104.00
GOLD MINI KGS 12.30 102.80 90.50
GOLD GUINEA KGS 2.91 2.74 -0.18
MENTHA OIL KGS 2587490.90 2592913.40 5422.50
MILD STEEL MT 344.85 344.85 0.00
SILVER (30 KG Bar) KGS 12669.09 47995.79 35326.70
•The government has allowed deduction of Commodity Transaction Tax (CTT) to traders as it forms part of their business income.
•The Uttrakhand government has fixed sugarcane price at ̀ 285 per quintal.
•The West Bengal government lifted the ban on potato and vegetable export, allowing their movement from West Bengal to other states.
•Special Margin of 10% on the Long side on all running contracts and yet to be launched contracts in Guar Seed and Guar Gum removed w.e.f December 04, 2013.
•Shenzhen Commodity Exchange one of the leading commodity futures exchanges has launched trading in Almond.
•Chile's Codelco has halted smelting operations at its massive Chuquicamata mine after a group of workers failed to show up for their shifts in protest for higher pay.
•Global production of nickel rose 9 percent in 2012, outstripping consumption by 94,500 tonnes.
•US ISM index of national factory activity rose to 57.3 last month the highest reading since April 2011, from 56.4 in October.
•Rio Tinto global miner expects to halve capital spending to $8 billion by 2015 from last year's level to cut debt.
•China final HSBC/Markit Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 50.8 in November.
•Chile, the world's No. 1 copper producer, produced 507,694 tonnes of copper in October, a 6.5 percent increase from the year.
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)
12
®
NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change) MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)
QTY.
3.343.16
2.722.44
0.92
-4.12
-3.03-2.85
-1.38 -1.29
-5.00
-4.00
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
CRUDE OIL
NATURAL GAS
KAPAS POTATO GOLD M CARDAMOM SILVER MGUAR SEED
MENTHA OIL
ALUMINIUM
3.86
2.92 2.90
2.02
0.21
-6.00-5.65
-4.12
-3.35 -3.23
-8.00
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
CRUDE OIL KAPAS GUR NEWCOTTON
OILSEED CAKE (AKL)
PVC NEW RED CHILLI CHANA TURMERICSILVER
NEWSUGAR M 200
Crude palm oil (CPO) futures ………in NCDEX
13
SPOT PRICES (% change)
COMMODITY
COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT 29.11.13 05.12.13 CHANGE%
ALUMINIUM LME 3 MONTHS 1754.00 1773.50 1.11
COPPER LME 3 MONTHS 7030.00 7086.00 0.80
LEAD LME 3 MONTHS 2076.00 2100.00 1.16
NICKEL LME 3 MONTHS 13480.00 13850.00 2.74
ZINC LME 3 MONTHS 1877.50 1902.50 1.33
GOLD COMEX FEB 1250.40 1231.90 -1.48
SILVER COMEX MAR 20.03 19.57 -2.31
LIGHT CRUDE OIL NYMEX JAN 92.72 97.38 5.03
NATURAL GAS NYMEX JAN 3.95 4.13 4.50
PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)
Palm oil is now the major edible oil consumed in India with a market share of 46
percent and has become an essential part of our daily lives. India consumes about
90-92 lakh tonnes of palm oil every year and the edible oil consumption is growing
at a rate of 4-5% per year. With an increasing demand for palm oil, price risk
management for a consuming nation as India is very important. Considering this
the Leading agri-commodity bourse NCDEX has re-launched crude palm oil (CPO)
futures contract on November 26, 2013. Currently, December 2013, January,
February and March 2014 contracts are available for trading. The re-launch of CPO
completes the basket of oil and oilseeds futures on the NCDEX platform. These
contracts are highly co-related with BMD, where crude palm oil futures are
actively traded.
®
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)
COMMODITY STOCK POSITION STOCK POSITION DIFFERENCE
28.11.13 05.12.13
ALUMINIUM 5395175 5472450 77275
COPPER 431900 415425 -16475
NICKEL 250572 252816 2244
LEAD 232375 229450 -2925
ZINC 968975 951000 -17975
INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES
COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT UNIT 29.11.13 05.12.13 CHANGE(%)
Soya CBOT JAN Cent per Bushel 1336.50 1328.00 -0.64
Maize CBOT DEC Cent per Bushel 415.25 422.75 1.81
CPO BMD JAN MYR per MT 2650.00 2628.00 -0.83
Sugar LIFFE MAR 10 cents per MT 464.00 449.90 -3.04
-2.49
-2.06
-2.04
-1.70
-0.99
-0.95
-0.88
-0.85
-0.81
-0.03
0.16
0.75
0.86
2.16
3.54
-3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00
REFINED SOYA OIL (INDORE)
TURMERIC (NIZAMABAD)
SILVER 5 KG (DELHI)
SOYABEAN (INDORE)
MUSTARD (JAIPUR)
JEERA (UNJHA)
CORIANDER (KOTA)
MASOOR (INDORE)
RUBBER (KOCHI)
CRUDE PALM OIL (KANDLA)
GOLD 10 GMS (MUMBAI)
PEPPER MALABAR GAR (KOCHI)
GUR (MUZAFFARNGR.)
BARLEY (JAIPUR)
RAW JUTE (KOLKATA)
Active participation has been witnessed in crude palm oil contract with an average daily traded volume is close to 1820 MT and an open interest of 6,810 MT as on December 2, and the total volume in crude palm oil since launch, up to December 2 is Rs 62 crore. The growing volume is evidence that NCDEX crude palm oil futures are ideal to meet the price risk management needs of the processors, traders, physical participants and end users.
Contract Specifications
Tick Size 10 paise
Unit of trading 10 MT
Delivery unit 10 MT
Quotation/base value Rs per 10 kg
Position limits Member level: Maximum of 1,25,000 MT or 15 % of Market
Open position in the Commodity whichever is higher
Client level: 25,000 MT
Quantity variation + /- 2%
Delivery center Kandla (within a radius of 50 km from the municipal limits)
Delivery specification Upon expiry of the contract, the delivery position would be arrived at by the Exchange based on the information to give/take delivery furnished by the sellers and buyers as per the process put in place by the Exchange for effecting physical delivery
Price band Daily price fluctuation limit is (+/-) 3%. If the trade hits the prescribed daily price limit there will be a cooling off period for 15 minutes. Thereafter the price band would be raised by (+ / -) 1% and trade will be resumed. If the price hits the revised price band (4%) again during the day, trade will only be allowed within the revised price band. No trade / order shall be permitted during the day beyond the revised limit of (+ / -) 4% .
Maximum Order Size 500 MT
Minimum Initial Margin 5 %
CURRENCY
Currency Table
Currency Pair Open High Low Close
USD/INR 62.82 62.94 61.86 62.02
EUR/INR 85.65 85.52 84.06 84.24
GBP/INR 102.50 103.10 101.23 101.38
JPY/INR 61.42 61.42 60.44 60.82
(Source: FX Central, Open: Monday 9.00 AM IST, Close: Thursday (5.00 PM IST)
News Flows of last week
04th Dec: The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in October
04th Dec: Sales of new U.S. single-family homes recorded their biggest increase in nearly 33-1/2 years in October
04th Dec: The pace of growth in the U.S. services sector slowed in November
04th Dec: U.S. private-sector hiring rose in November at the fastest clip in a year,
05th Dec: The U.S. economy grew faster than initially estimated in the third quarter
05th Dec: New orders for U.S. factory goods fell in October
05th Dec: The Bank of England left monetary policy unchanged
EUR/INR (DEC) contract closed at 84.24 on 05th December'13. The contract made its high of `85.52 on 04th December'13 and a low of `84.06 on 05th December'13 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at ̀ 84.77.
On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 47.21. One can sell around 84.90 for a target of 83.90 with the stop loss of 85.40.
`
JPY/INR (DEC) contract closed at 60.82 on 05th December'13. The contract made its high of `61.42 on 02nd December'13 and a low of `60.44 on 05th December'13 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at ̀ 61.51.
On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 28.00. One can sell around 61.25 for a target of 60.20 with the stop loss of ̀ 61.85.
`
Market Stance
Rupee edged up sharply in the week gone by and breached 62 level as against
dollar mainly tracking sharp gains in euro. In New York market, the dollar fell
to its lowest level against the euro in more than a month after European
Central Bank President Mario Draghi signalled that the bank doesn't have any
immediate plans to ease policy further. Moreover, state polls results, which
are due on Sunday, also supported the currency. A strong showing by the
opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will be viewed as an endorsement for
its prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, who is perceived as business-
friendly and may lead to INR gains. Adding to that, Banks and exporters
preferred to reduce their dollar position on the back of strong capital inflows
from foreign funds coupled with lower dollar in the global market.
EUR/INR
USD/INR (DEC) contract closed at ̀ 62.02 on 05th December'13. The contract made its high of `62.94 on 04th December'13 and a low of `61.86 on 05th December'13 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at ̀ 62.49.
On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 40.17. One can sell around 62.30 for a target of 61.20 with the stop loss of 62.90
GBP/INR (DEC) contract closed at 101.38 on 05th December'13. The contract made its high of `103.10 on 04th December'13 and a low of `101.23 on 05th December'13 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at ̀ 101.65.
On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 47.42. One can sell around 101.60 for a target of 100.50 with the stop loss of 102.15
`
USD/INRTechnical Recommendation
GBP/INR JPY/INR
14
®
Economic gauge for the next week
Date Currency Event PREVIOUS
09th Dec EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence 9.3
09th Dec EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) 1.00%
10th Dec GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) 0.80%
10th Dec GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) -£3268
10th Dec GBP Industrial Production (YoY) 2.20%
10th Dec GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate 0.70%
11th Dec EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) 1.30%
11th Dec USD Monthly Budget Statement
12th Dec EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report
12th Dec EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) 1.10%
12th Dec USD Advance Retail Sales 0.40%
12th Dec USD Initial Jobless Claims
12th Dec USD Continuing Claims
IPOIPO
IPO TRACKER
Company Sector M.Cap(In Cr.) Issue Size(in Cr.) List Date Issue Price List Price Last Price %Gain/Loss(from Issue price)
*
Just Dial Service provider 8425.92 950.11 5-Jun-13 530.00 590.00 1202.50 126.89
Repco Home Fin Finance 2020.20 270.39 1-Apr-13 172.00 165.00 325.00 88.95
V-Mart Retail Trading 386.23 123.00 20-Feb-13 210.00 216.00 215.05 2.40
Bharti Infra. Telecom 31252.02 4533.60 28-Dec-12 220.00 200.00 165.45 -24.80
PC Jeweller Jewellary 1588.62 609.30 27-Dec-12 135.00 135.50 88.70 -34.30
CARE Rating Agency 2125.85 540.00 26-Dec-12 750.00 949.00 733.05 -2.26
Tara Jewels Jewellary 212.96 179.50 6-Dec-12 230.00 242.00 86.50 -62.39
VKS Projects Engineering 54.81 55.00 18-Jul-12 55.00 55.80 0.87 -98.42
Speciality Rest. Restaurants 562.35 181.96 30-May-12 150.00 153.00 119.75 -20.17
T B Z Jewellary 876.10 210.00 9-May-12 120.00 115.00 131.35 9.46
MT Educare Miscellaneous 361.00 99.00 12-Apr-12 80.00 86.05 90.75 13.44
NBCC Construction 1773.60 124.97 12-Apr-12 106.00 100.00 147.80 39.43
Olympic card. Media 45.83 24.75 28-Mar-12 30.00 29.95 28.10 -6.33
Multi Comm. Exc. Exchange 2297.81 663.31 9-Mar-12 1032.00 1387.00 450.55 -56.34
Indo Thai Sec. Finance 12.27 29.60 2-Nov-11 74.00 75.00 12.27 -83.42
*Closing prices as on 05-12-2013
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15
IPO NEWS
SEBI seeks clarification on Great Eastern Energy's IPO
Market regulator Sebi has sought clarifications from the merchant banker of Great Eastern Energy Corp, a coal-bed methane explorer, regarding the
company's proposed initial public offering (IPO). Without disclosing the details of the clarifications sought, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi)
has said that "clarifications (are) awaited from Lead Manager" for the proposed public offer. Sebi said it might issue observations on Great Eastern Energy's
draft offer document within 30 days from the date of receipt of satisfactory reply from the lead merchant bankers to the clarification or additional
information sought from them. The regulator had received the draft offer documents on September 17 through its lead manager ICICI Securities Ltd. The
company plans to come with a public issue of up to 82 lakh equity shares of face value of ̀ 10 each.
Mirc Electronics to raise ̀ 33 crore by rights issue
Mirc Electronics, which sells the Onida brand of TVs, said it would raise funds up to `33 crore by issuing equity shares to existing shareholders of the
company. The board has approved the proposal to issue equity shares and a committee has been formed for its implementation, Mirc Electronics said in a
filing to the BSE stock exchange. According to the notice, the board has approved for "raising of funds of up to ̀ 33 crore by way of issue of equity shares to
the existing shareholders of the company on a rights basis (Rights Issue) subject to all applicable statutory and regulatory approvals.
SBI to raise $1.53 billion through share sale
The nation's largest lender State Bank of India (SBI) has decided to raise up to ̀ 9,576 crore or $ 1.53 billion through a share sale to institutional investors or a
follow-on public offer, the bank said in an exchange filing. The bank also plans to raise another `2,000 crore through a share sale to the government on a
preferential basis as part of the capital infusion announced by the finance ministry. The government held 62.31 per cent in the bank at the end of the
September. While the government cannot reduce its holding in state-run banks to below 51 per cent, the Manmohan Singh government had decided not to
lower its holding to less than 58 per cent in any of the 26 banks.
Open offers touch 2-month high of ̀ 1,060 cr in Oct
After two months of lull, open offers by listed companies crossed the `1,000 crore level, largely on account of share purchase by HT Global in Hexaware
Technologies. As per Sebi's latest monthly report, the market regulator approved two open offers for shares amounting to ̀ 1,060.15 crore in October, made
towards consolidation of holdings. In August and September, shareholders had got open offers worth just ̀ 106 crore and ̀ 317 crore respectively. With this,
the cumulative value of open offers made during the April-October period of current financial year has reached ̀ 39,789 crore through 48 issues. One of the
open offers in October was made by HT Global IT Solution Holdings, an affiliate of Baring Private Equity Asia, to buy 26% stake in the outsourcing firm
Hexaware from minority shareholders. A total of 7.83 crore shares of Hexaware were acquired by HT Global at average price of ̀ 135 apiece amounting to
nearly ̀ 1,058 crore. The offer opened on October 25 and closed on November 8, 2013.
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16
MUTUAL FUND
NEWS
Birla Sun Life MF introduces Fixed Term Plan - Series JF (367 days)
Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of Birla Sun Life Fixed Term Plan - Series JF (367 days), a close ended income scheme. The NFO opens for subscription on Dec 6, 2013, and closes on Dec 9, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate income by investing in a portfolio of fixed income securities maturing on or before the duration of the scheme.
Sundaram MF introduces Hybrid Fund - Series D (3 years)
Sundaram Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of Sundaram Hybrid Fund - Series D (3 years), a close ended income scheme. The NFO opens for subscription on Dec 5, 2013, and closes on Dec 19, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate capital appreciation and current income, through a judicious mix of investments in equities and fixed income securities.
ICICI Prudential MF introduces Fixed Maturity Plan-Series 71-505 Days Plan H
ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of ICICI Prudential Fixed Maturity Plan-Series 71-505 Days Plan H, a close ended income scheme. The NFO opens for subscription on Dec 5, 2013, and closes on Dec 10, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate income by investing in a portfolio of fixed income securities/debt instruments maturing on or before the maturity of the Scheme. However, there can be no assurance that the investment objective of the Scheme will be realized.
DSP BlackRock MF introduces FMP - Series 129 - 12M
DSP BlackRock Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of DSP BlackRock FMP - Series 129 - 12M, a Close Ended Income scheme. The NFO opens for subscription on Dec 5, 2013, and closes on Dec 12, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate returns and capital appreciation by investing in a portfolio of Debt and Money Market Securities. The Scheme will invest only in such securities which mature on or before the date of maturity of the Scheme.
Reliance MF introduces Fixed Horizon Fund - XXV - Series 7
Reliance Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of Reliance Fixed Horizon Fund - XXV - Series 7, a Close Ended Income scheme. The NFO opens for subscription on Dec 4, 2013, and closes on Dec 10, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate returns and growth of capital by investing in a diversified portfolio of the following securities which are maturing on or before the date of maturity of the scheme with the object of limiting interest rate volatility Central and State Government securities and other fixed income/ debt securities.
HDFC MF introduces FMP 540D December 2013 (1)
HDFC Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of HDFC FMP 540D December 2013 (1), a close ended income scheme. The NFO opens for subscription on Dec 4, 2013, and closes on Dec 9, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate income through investments in Debt / Money Market Instruments and Government Securities maturing on or before the maturity date of the respective Plan(s). There is no assurance that the investment objective of the Scheme will be realized.
Kotak Mutual Fund files offer document for FMP Series 133-153
Kotak Mutual Fund has filed offer document with SEBI to launch Close ended debt scheme(s)named as "Kotak FMP Series 133-153". The New Fund Offer price is Rs 10 per unit. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate returns through investments in debt and money market instruments with a view to reduce the interest rate risk. The Scheme will invest in debt and money market securities, maturing on or before maturity of the scheme.
L&T MF introduces FMP - Series IX-Plan H
L&T Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of L&T FMP -Series IX-Plan H, a Close Ended Income scheme. The NFO opens for subscription on Dec 3, 2013, and closes on Dec 13, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to achieve growth of capital through investments made in a basket of debt/fixed income securities (including money market instruments) maturing on or before the maturity of the Scheme. The Scheme does not assure or guarantee any returns
Baroda Pioneer Mutual Fund files offer document for Money Market Opportunities Fund
Baroda Pioneer Mutual Fund has filed offer document with SEBI to launch an open ended money market scheme named as "Baroda Pioneer Money Market Opportunities Fund". The New Fund Offer price is `10 per unit. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate income by investing in a diversified portfolio of money market instruments. There is no assurance or guarantee that the investment objective of the Scheme will be realized.
UTI Mutual Fund files offer document for Medium Term Fund
UTI Mutual Fund has filed offer document with SEBI to launch an open ended money market scheme named as "UTI Medium Term Fund". The New Fund Offer price is Rs 10 per unit. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate steady and reasonable income, with low risk and high level of liquidity from a portfolio of money market securities and high quality debt.
HDFC Mutual Fund files offer document for Capital Protection Oriented Fund - Series II
HDFC Mutual Fund has filed offer document with SEBI to launch a Close-ended Capital Protection Oriented Income Scheme named as "HDFC Capital Protection Oriented Fund - Series II". The New Fund Offer price is Rs 10 per unit. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate returns by investing in a portfolio of debt and money market instruments which mature on or before the date of maturity of the Scheme. The Scheme also seeks to invest a portion of the portfolio in equity and equity related instruments to achieve capital appreciation. There is no assurance that the investment objective of the Scheme will be realized.
Kotak Mutual Fund files offer document for Hybrid Fixed Term Plan Series 2 and 3
Kotak Mutual Fund has filed offer document with SEBI to launch a close ended debt scheme named as "Kotak Hybrid Fixed Term Plan Series 2 and 3". The New Fund Offer price is `10 per unit. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate income and minimize interest rate volatility by investing in Debt & Money Market securities that mature on or before the maturity of the scheme, and also to generate capital appreciation by investing in equity/ equity related instruments
17
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NFOs WATCH
Fund Name NFO NFO Scheme Objective Fund Type Fund Class Fund Manager MinimumOpens on Closes on Amount
25-Nov-2013 09-Dec-2013 Open-Ended Growth `5000/-Birla Sun Life Banking And Financial Services Fund - Regular Plan (G)
Satyabrata Mohanty
To generate long-term capital appreciation to unitholders from a portfolio that is invested predominantly in equity and equity related securities of companies engaged in banking and financial services.
18
MUTUAL FUND Performance Charts
Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)
Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Beta Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &
(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER
ICICI Pru Exports and Other Services Fund - G 25.75 30-Nov-2005 155.04 13.94 31.24 35.88 11.81 12.52 1.57 0.37 0.51 61.58 33.20 0.62 4.60
ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan - Growth 131.38 31-Oct-2002 3398.03 14.63 17.18 13.93 6.01 26.10 1.58 0.61 0.14 55.71 19.37 2.69 22.23
Franklin India Smaller Companies Fund - G 18.55 13-Jan-2006 281.76 22.23 10.83 12.26 6.19 8.14 1.98 0.67 0.13 14.11 66.18 12.20 7.51
Tata Ethical Fund - Plan A - Growth 81.50 24-May-1996 108.20 8.48 10.45 11.73 5.65 16.45 1.31 0.48 0.09 69.57 25.52 1.02 3.89
Axis Equity Fund - Growth 13.44 05-Jan-2010 563.06 11.17 5.41 11.72 4.79 7.84 1.75 0.79 0.13 81.26 9.13 4.77 4.84
ICICI Prudential Top 100 Fund - Growth 168.92 09-Jul-1998 379.06 13.06 13.54 11.18 6.09 20.12 1.86 0.78 0.11 84.82 7.04 N.A 8.14
SBI Magnum Midcap Fund - Growth 29.25 29-Mar-2005 173.07 25.91 11.60 10.76 5.61 13.14 2.07 0.63 0.16 7.57 76.66 10.63 5.14
EQUITY (Diversified)
BALANCED
INCOME FUND
Note: Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option. The above mentioned data is on the basis of 05/12/2013Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 7%
ULTRA SHORT TERM
SHORT TERM FUND
Due to their inherent long term nature, the following 3 categories have been sorted on the basis of 1 year returns
Due to their inherent short term nature, the following 2 categories have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)
Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &
(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER
SBI Magnum Balanced Fund - Growth 61.80 09-Oct-1995 398.12 13.84 7.42 10.58 4.96 15.70 1.34 0.08 33.76 29.29 8.28 28.66
ICICI Prudential Balanced - Growth 60.18 03-Nov-1999 535.01 11.61 7.27 9.74 8.52 13.58 1.34 0.08 49.20 16.09 2.74 31.96
FT India Balanced Fund - Growth 57.93 10-Dec-1999 193.03 11.57 3.31 6.77 4.90 13.37 1.54 0.03 57.89 14.25 N.A 27.86
HDFC Balanced Fund - Growth 67.28 11-Sep-2000 1099.18 14.12 7.37 6.43 6.02 15.48 1.40 -0.01 26.57 40.95 3.91 28.56
Birla Sun Life 95 - Growth 359.02 10-Feb-1995 584.69 10.10 3.66 4.64 3.94 20.94 1.47 N.A 58.75 12.16 1.01 28.09
UTI Balanced Fund - Growth 90.92 20-Jan-1995 869.48 11.36 5.55 4.64 2.67 15.97 1.36 -0.01 56.75 15.54 2.74 24.97
Tata Balanced Fund - Plan A - Growth 102.56 08-Oct-1995 562.98 9.89 3.64 4.06 6.08 15.62 1.52 -0.01 51.24 22.48 1.08 25.21
Returns (%) RiskAverage Yield till
Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. SharpeMaturity (Days) Maturity
1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.
Tata Dynamic Bond Fund - Plan A - G 18.45 03-Sep-2003 392.85 15.76 18.34 6.75 2.12 11.27 8.52 6.15 40.67 0.10 N.A 8.78
Templeton India Income Opportunities Fund - G 14.00 11-Dec-2009 3742.69 14.19 18.61 8.08 4.93 8.86 9.16 8.80 17.46 0.08 858.00 10.81
Morgan Stanley Active Bond Fund - Reg - G 12.67 03-Jun-2009 589.86 0.25 13.21 -1.91 -4.03 8.80 7.32 5.40 28.93 0.05 5041.00 7.95
Templeton India Corporate Bond Opp Fund - G 12.21 07-Dec-2011 4871.08 15.54 20.18 8.02 5.25 8.69 N.A 10.53 18.28 0.07 975.00 11.03
ICICI Prudential LTP - Reg - Cumulative 25.77 28-Mar-2002 303.39 7.36 7.84 8.11 8.82 8.67 8.48 8.43 2.53 0.46 14.00 9.73
Axis Banking Debt Fund - Growth 1136.18 08-Jun-2012 256.69 15.76 13.52 9.27 8.21 8.64 N.A 8.93 8.38 0.15 131.00 8.99
Tata Income Plus Fund - Plan A - Growth 19.03 11-Nov-2002 174.49 12.77 18.86 4.51 -1.11 8.62 7.95 5.98 33.31 0.04 N.A 8.95
Annualised
Returns (%) Risk Average Yield tillScheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. Sharpe Maturity (Days) Maturity
1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.
Sundaram Flexible Fund - ST - Growth 18.38 30-Dec-2004 750.64 11.89 10.95 7.53 6.80 7.80 8.27 7.04 8.61 0.04 142.00 9.00
JPMorgan India Short Term Income Fund - G 13.50 25-Mar-2010 1044.04 16.38 14.07 8.35 6.62 8.41 9.11 8.45 10.26 0.10 833.00 9.45
HDFC Short Term Opportunities Fund - G 13.41 25-Jun-2010 2389.25 17.09 19.79 9.87 6.41 8.41 9.21 8.87 13.51 0.07 471.00 9.58
Birla Sun Life Short Term Opp Fund - Reg - G 19.92 24-Apr-2003 1029.13 14.02 15.01 8.67 6.38 10.16 10.20 6.70 14.43 0.18 N.A 10.22
Tata Short Term Bond Fund - Plan A - G 22.93 08-Aug-2002 320.22 13.04 13.95 7.62 6.37 9.19 8.95 7.60 12.78 0.13 N.A 9.13
Sundaram Select Debt - S T A P - Reg - Appreciation 21.35 04-Sep-2002 305.37 12.73 12.94 7.52 6.20 10.10 11.06 6.97 13.93 0.19 409.00 9.66
Birla Sun Life Short Term Fund - DAP 14.07 06-Mar-2009 5191.74 16.81 17.32 8.47 6.17 8.56 9.36 7.44 11.82 0.08 N.A 9.41
Annualised
Returns (%) Risk Average Yield tillScheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. Sharpe Maturity (Days) Maturity
1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.
DSP BlackRock Money Manager Fund - Reg - G 1691.88 31-Jul-2006 1686.27 12.22 11.63 8.66 9.61 9.14 8.81 7.41 4.95 0.32 104.00 N.A
DWS Ultra Short-Term Fund - Growth 20.16 21-Oct-2003 1842.88 10.68 9.84 8.90 9.37 9.14 9.13 7.17 4.40 0.37 66.00 9.60
Tata Floater Fund - Plan A - Growth 1869.70 06-Sep-2005 2700.42 11.20 11.02 9.25 9.25 9.35 9.38 7.88 4.37 0.42 N.A 9.21
Templeton India Ultra Short Bond F - Retail - G 15.93 18-Dec-2007 4132.25 11.65 10.83 8.76 9.24 9.37 9.31 8.11 3.74 0.49 95.00 9.65
Birla Sun Life Ultra Short Term Fund - Ret - G 225.09 19-Apr-2002 543.50 11.89 12.31 9.74 9.15 9.33 9.24 7.22 4.59 0.39 N.A 9.98
IDFC Ultra Short Term Fund - Reg - G 17.35 17-Jan-2006 1824.43 12.23 11.09 9.30 9.15 9.38 9.70 7.23 4.88 0.39 87.00 9.30
Birla Sun Life Savings Fund - Ret - G 230.99 27-Nov-2001 4607.40 13.42 12.10 9.56 9.14 9.26 9.18 7.21 5.14 0.33 N.A 9.85
Annualised
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Mr S C Aggarwal (CMD, SMC Group) addressing the audience during
'3rd Annual Summit on Financial Markets' organised by Assocham at New Delhi.
Mr Ajay Garg (Director, SMC Group) sharing his thoughts with the subbrokers during
'Investor Awareness Meet' organised by SMC at Hyderabad.