8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
1/44
FUTURE HORIZONSPresents
The Global
Semiconductor
Monthly Report
March 2010
Time For A Reality Check
Pessimism Has Swung Too Far
In This Issue:Executive Overview ...................................................................................... 1
Market Summary ........................................................................................... 6Industry Capacity ........................................................................................ 11
World Economic Round Up ........................................................................16
Russia/CIS Mixed Blessings In Ukraine................................................... 20
Economic Case Study Big vs Small Government..................................... 22
Market Trends Ultra-Wideband................................................................ 24
Semiconductor Spotlight Photovoltaic Developments ............................. 27
plus Exchange Rate Trends & FH Reports & Upcoming Events
Sign up Now IEF2010 19
thAnnual International Electronics Forum
5-7 May 2010, Dresden, Germany(Visit Our Website www.futurehorizons.com for Further Details & Registration)
Future Horizons Ltd, 44 Bethel Road, Sevenoaks, Kent TN13 3UE, England
Tel: +44 1732 740440 Fax: +44 1732 740442
Affiliates In Bangalore India; Tel Aviv Israel; Tokyo Japan; Moscow Russia; & San Jose, California, USA
www.futurehorizons.com e-mail: [email protected]
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
2/44
The Global
Semiconductor
Monthly Report
March 2010
A CEO favourite, the Global Semiconductor Monthly Report provides
analysis and commentary on the global semiconductor industry and its impact
on Future Horizons semiconductor market forecast, as published in the Annual
Semiconductor / Semiconductor Application Markets (previously called KeyMarket Drivers) Reports. These three reports provide a comprehensive in-depth
analysis of the worldwide semiconductor, electronics equipment and economic
environment. Together they provide the latest information on developments in thesemiconductor industry, the companies involved, the changes in the markets, and
the impact of the global economic and political situation.
If you like this Report, by all means share it with your colleagues or post it onyour company Intranet but please respect international copyright laws. Site
licence available for only 3,370 p/a. Please email Future Horizons [email protected]. Please call too for pricing in UK or US$.
Copyright 1989-2010 by Future Horizons, Republication ProhibitedThe Global Semiconductor Industry Analysts
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in retrieval
systems, or transmitted in any form or by any means (mechanical, electronic, photocopying, duplicating, microfilming, video-tape or otherwise) without the priorwritten permission of Future Horizons. This information is not furnished in connectionwith a sale offer to sell securities, or in connection with the solicitation of an offer to buy
securities. This firm and/or its officers, stockholders, or members of their families may,from time to time, have a position or may sell or buy such. The information contained inthis report has been derived from statistical and other sources deemed to be reliable but
its completeness and accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Opinions expressed are based onour studies and interpretations of available information. They reflect our judgement at
that time and are subject to future change. Whilst the report has been prepared in goodfaith, Future Horizons bears no responsibility for any consequences whatsoever aroused
to the buyer through the reading of, or acting upon, any data or information, etc.contained in the report.
Future Horizonswww.futurehorizons.com [email protected]
In Russia Tel/Fax: East-West Electronics +7 (495) 151 4635 / e-mail: [email protected]
(East-West Electronics is a Wholly-Owned Subsidiary of Future Horizons)
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
3/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 1
Executive OverviewFigure E1 shows the 12/12 worldwide monthly growth rates for IC sales in dollars,
units and ASP for January 1997 to January 2010 inclusive. They need to be
looked at in conjunction with the other 12/12 and rolling 12-month charts
provided in the Market Summary section of this report.
Januarys WSTS results continued to follow the underlying industry recovery
trend, with ICs sales up 4.8 percent versus December (on a 5-week month adjusted
basis). They were also up 73.7 percent versus January 2009, a relatively
meaningless number other than to recall just how bad things were this time last
year. The real significance of January is its potential impact on first quarter sales.
Were this run rate to continue through February and March, first quarter sales
would be up 8 percent versus Q4-09. That would make 2010 grow a staggering 40
percent on 2009. This is by no means a forecast but it does serve to illustrate the
strength of the recovery from the abyss this time last year.
Figure E1 - 12/12 Worldwide IC Monthly Growth Rates
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Jan-97
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan-98
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan-99
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan-00
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan-01
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan-02
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan-03
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan-04
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan-05
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan-06
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan-07
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan-08
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan-09
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan-10
IC UnitsIC Value
IC ASP
Total IC Units ASP Value
Jan 2010 vs Jan 2009 78.4% -2.6% 73.7%
Jan 2010 vs Dec 2009 10.0% -4.7% 4.8%
Source: WSTS/Future Horizons (Growth rates adjusted for 5-week months)
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
4/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 2
Figure E2 shows the 12:12 monthly total semiconductor sales trend versus our2009 and 2010 forecasts. Ignoring the structurally (and typically) wild individualmonthly fluctuations which simply means no single month is a good indicator of
the underlying trends the month on month numbers will not settle down until the
second quarter of 2010. That being said, given the likely strength of the first
quarter versus Q4-09, our current 22 percent forecast for the total year now looks
far too low.
Figure E2 2009 12:12 Monthly Forecast Sales Trend
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Jan
2009 vs
Jan
2008
Feb
2009 vs
Feb
2008
Mar
2009 vs
Mar
2008
Apr
2009 vs
Apr
2008
May
2009 vs
May
2008
Jun
2009 vs
Jun
2008
Jul
2009 vs
Jul
2008
Aug
2009 vs
Aug
2008
Se p
2009 vs
Se p
2008
Oct
2009 vs
Oct
2008
Nov
2009 vs
Nov
2008
Dec
2009 vs
Dec
2008
Jan
2010 vs
Jan
2009
YoYGrowth
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Monthly12:12GrowthRate
FH YoY F'Cast Value
2009 Actual -9.0%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Jan
2009 vs
Jan
2008
Feb
2009 vs
Feb
2008
Mar
2009 vs
Mar
2008
Apr
2009 vs
Apr
2008
May
2009 vs
May
2008
Jun
2009 vs
Jun
2008
Jul
2009 vs
Jul
2008
Aug
2009 vs
Aug
2008
Se p
2009 vs
Se p
2008
Oct
2009 vs
Oct
2008
Nov
2009 vs
Nov
2008
Dec
2009 vs
Dec
2008
Jan
2010 vs
Jan
2009
YoYGrowth
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Monthly12:12GrowthRate
FH YoY F'Cast Value
2009 Actual -9.0%
Source: WSTS/Future Horizons
Our 22 percent forecast for 2010 was based on the relatively benign quarterly
growth pattern of -1.0, +1.0, +6.2 +2.0 percent; in essence a very weak year. No
one we speak with is seeing a negative first quarter, with a consensus now
building for at least 3 percent positive growth. That alone would bring the year on
year growth up to 28 percent.
At the same time, almost everyone is also boasting a strong Q2 backlog with pricestabilisation, even increasing; low inventory levels; and tightening supplies which
places severe doubt on the credibility of our plus 1 percent second quarter growth
forecast. Were this to be say plus 3 percent, the year on year growth would be 30
percent.
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
5/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 3
It does however give us further confidence in our analysis and now places ourforecast at the low end of the forecast range. Barring an epic 9/11, Act Of God orimmoral banker style disaster, growth of anything less than 22 percent in 2010 is
now all but impossible.
We fully expect to be increasing our forecast to around the plus 30 percent level at
our forthcoming IEF2010 International Electronics Forum in Dresden, May 5-7
bringing the 2010 market within spitting distance of US$300 billion in revenues.
The real irony behind this recovery is it is taking place in the first half of the year
when things are usually quiet and the strength of the recovery is therefore
understated. In addition no one believes (a) what they see it or (b) that it will last,
even though there is not a shred of evidence to support a second-half year market
collapse, quite the contrary. This is really a very serious problem indeed.
With everyone still running on empty neither hiring nor spending money the
industry is in a very weak structural position to grow. Capacity is maxed out,
wafer shortages are becoming rife, lead times are stretching and some firms are
even paying their foundries a price premium to jump the delivery queue.
Some are also finding the low-ball orders they took at rock bottom margins are
now loosing money due to foundry wafer price increases. Both of the issues
(wafer deliveries and cost) are a fundamental problem of the fabless, and now
fablite, business models. Never forget the sole reason for the FSAs (now
renamed GSA) formation in 1994 was to address the wafer shortage issue during
the then market boom, following three years of low market growth and capacity
under investment.
The chip market sentiment pendulum has clearly swung to far towards pessimism,
driven in part by the 2000s decade of lost growth. The overall IC market
compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for 2000-2009 was a paltry 0.8 percent, the
worst decade ever for the semiconductor industry, prompting cries of despair thatthe chip market glory days are over. We strongly disagree.
Clearly, from a mathematical perspective the 0.8 percent CAGR number is correct
but the conclusions to be drawn from this need to be interpreted with care. For a
start, the data range covered happens to measure a peak (2000) to trough (2009)
period; the CAGRs one year either side of this period were 7.8 percent for 2001-
2010 and 5.4 percent for 1999-2008. Moreover, looking at the correspondingvalues for IC units rather than US dollars shows the underlying annual 10 percent
IC unit growth rate intact.
Herein lies the fundamental danger of statistics though. You can derive any
CAGR value you want simply by choosing the right start and finish points. In so
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
6/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 4
doing you can then prove virtually any scenario you like, providing amply fodderfor the optimists and pessimists alike.
The fact that IC units showed growth in line with their average points to the fact
that the problem with the 2000s was one of declining average selling price
(ASP) not growth. The 2000s were thus a decade of depressed ASPs.
The real question is thus not the low market value growth this was the effect
but whether the cause an above average decline in ASPs was a bell weather of
things to come, as many believe, or a temporary occurrence, the result of a
coincidence of events? We believe the latter, as first reported in our November
2009 Report.
Just to recap and bring the situation up to date. ASPs are a very complex issue,
driven not just by price increases but also product mix, IC innovation, fab capacity
and production techniques. For sure the industry has seen declining ASPs since
the 2001 crash but it is fundamentally flawed logic to extrapolate this into the
future; a little like saying real-estate prices will forever keep on rising. They do
not; neither will IC ASPs keep on falling.
We see the 2000s ASP fall as one side of a cycle; the coincidence of events rather
than a sign of more bad news to come. It is vital therefore to understand the
events that caused the problem.
First the industry experienced a major yield bust at the 130nm node, delaying its
introduction by a year and destroying the ASP price enhancement it would
otherwise have brought.Second was the transition to 300mm wafers, the sole purpose of which was to
reduce IC costs. A 2x plus increase in gross die per wafer for only a 40 percent
wafer cost increase means a 40 percent die cost decrease. As is typical in our
industry, all of this cost reduction was immediately passed on to the customer
meaning all 300mm wafer sourced ICs were reduced in selling price by up to 40percent. By the end of the decade this was over half of all silicon made.
Third, for DRAMs, where fabs must always be kept fully loaded, the increase in
die output due to the 300mm transition was more than the market could use
meaning rampant oversupply and the mother of all price wars. It is only now that
this massive one-off incremental capacity increase has been absorbed that pricing
has return to its normal pricing curve.
With DRAM demand hot 4Gb is the entry point for 64-bit/Window 7 systems;
strong demand for servers; new Intel processors in prospect; and a two to four year
backlog in enterprise workstation upgrades and Flash growing too, driven by
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
7/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 5
exploding demand for Smart phones, the memory market has entered a positivecycle for growth and profits.
The last two years of DRAM Cap Ex restraint has now triggered a fab famine, the
like of which no amount of die shrinking can offset. ASPs are already now double
what they were just 12 months ago, with a minimum two-year period of positive
ASP news now in prospect. The DRAMeXchange experts even say three.
A fourth factor was the brutal Intel-AMD 32-bit MPU price war that saw ASPs
fall around 30 percent from their more normal US$100 level to US$70. With
AMD now bloodied, bruised and losing money, we can expect to see MPU ASPs
trending up.
Finally, excess capacity also played its role but is already no longer a factor due to
the significant slow down in new capacity investment over the past two plus years.
Wafer fab capacity is now essentially sold out, with allocations, extended lead
times and price increases the new industry norm. As mentioned earlier, some
firms are already paying a price premium in order to jump the foundry wafer
delivery queue. Those that refuse will simply not get their parts. No wafers, no
sales; yes it really is that simple. Interestingly overall industry revenue per wafer
start increased to US$7.70 per sq cm in 2009 from US$ 6.96 in 2008, despite 2009
being the worst recession year in the history of the chip industry. Watch for this
number to hit its US$8.00 to US$9.00 long-term average in 2010.
With current wafer fab capacity tight, additional capacity will now be driven
primarily by Cap Ex, not one-off gains such as wafer size transitions, and this will
be governed by industrys willingness to invest they currently are not which
translates into no new capacity for at least the next 12 months, due to last years
incredibly low level of investment. Even a 50-80 percent increase in 2010 Cap Ex
the current top end of the forecasts will not significantly increase 2011s net
new capacity; the current starting point is so low. Prices, and therefore ASPs, willrise. 10 percent IC unit growth (the underlying growth trend) coupled with any
positive ASP growth means double-digit growth at the IC value level.
This is all really good news for the industry as a whole but not for all companies.
For a start, the OEMs will need to get used to a capacity (supply) limited market
with increasing, rather than decreasing, IC buying prices. Secondly, the fabless
and fablite firms will need to adjust to a world of tight foundry wafer supply and
increasing prices. It will be a sanguine moment when they suddenly realise that
they are no longer in control of the delivery times and prices they quote to their
customers; their business is now at the mercy of their foundry partners. Better
start to learn the new industry lexicon Please Sir may I have some more?
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
8/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 6
Market SummaryFigures M1 and M2 show the worldwide and European 12/12 industry growth
rates for ICs, Opto, and Discrete Devices from January 1998 to date. These show
the current month as compared with the same period 12 months ago, and are a
useful industry momentum indicator. Figures M3a-M3h show 15-month rolling
worldwide and European sales by major product category. Figure M4a-M4h show
the comparable worldwide unit and ASP trends.
Figure M1 - World Sales By Product Category 12/12 Growth Rate
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
IC Opto Disc
Figure M2 - Europe Sales By Product Category 12/12 Growth Rate
-70%
-50%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
90%
110%
130%
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
IC Opto Disc
Source: WSTS/Future Horizons
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
9/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 7
Figure M3 - 12 Month Rolling Worldwide & Europe Sales By Product(Billions Of US$)
M3a - Total WW Semiconductor
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
Nov
Dec
Jan09
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan10
M3b - Total Europe Semiconductor
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
Nov
Dec
Jan09
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan10
Jan 2010 vs Jan 2009 71.9%
Jan 2010 vs Dec 2009 5.9%
Jan 2010 vs Jan 2009 41.9%
Jan 2010 vs Dec 2009 12.6%
M3c - Total WW IC
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Nov
Dec
Jan09
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan10
M3d - Total Europe IC
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
Nov
Dec
Jan09
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan10
Jan 2010 vs Jan 2009 73.7%
Jan 2010 vs Dec 2009 4.8%
Jan 2010 vs Jan 2009 41.6%
Jan 2010 vs Dec 2009 10.0%
Source: WSTS/Future Horizons (Growth rates adjusted for 5-week months)
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
10/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 8
Figure M3 - 12 Month Rolling Worldwide & Europe Sales By Product (Cont)(Billions Of US$)
M3e Total WW Optoelectronics
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
Nov
Dec
Jan09
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan10
M3f Total Europe Optoelectronics
0.07
0.09
0.11
0.13
0.15
0.17
0.19
0.21
0.23
0.25
Nov
Dec
Jan09
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan10
Jan 2010 vs Jan 2009 42.5%
Jan 2010 vs Dec 2009 13.5%
Jan 2010 vs Jan 2009 25.6%
Jan 2010 vs Dec 2009 18.6%
M3g Total WW Discretes
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
Nov
Dec
Jan09
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan10
M3h Total Europe Discretes
0.18
0.20
0.22
0.24
0.26
0.28
0.30
0.32
0.34
0.36
0.38
0.40
Nov
Dec
Jan09
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan10
Jan 2010 vs Jan 2009 85.9%
Jan 2010 vs Dec 2009 10.7%
Jan 2010 vs Jan 2009 57.1%
Jan 2010 vs Dec 2009 28.7%
Source: WSTS/Future Horizons (Growth rates adjusted for 5-week months)
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
11/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 9
Figure M4 - 12 Month Rolling Worldwide Unit Sales & ASPs By Product(Units In Billions & ASP In US$ Dollars)
M4a Total Semiconductor Units
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
Nov
Dec
Jan09
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan10
M4b Total Semiconductor ASP
0.38
0.39
0.40
0.41
0.42
0.43
0.44
0.45
0.46
0.47
0.48
Nov
Dec
Jan09
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan10
Jan 2010 vs Jan 2009 93.3%
Jan 2010 vs Dec 2009 16.7%
Jan 2010 vs Jan 2009 -11.1%
Jan 2010 vs Dec 2009 -9.3%
M4c Total IC Units
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Nov
Dec
Jan09
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan10
M4d Total IC ASP
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
Nov
Dec
Jan09
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan10
Jan 2010 vs Jan 2009 78.4%
Jan 2010 vs Dec 2009 10.0%
Jan 2010 vs Jan 2009 -2.6%
Jan 2010 vs Dec 2009 -4.7%
Source: WSTS/Future Horizons (Growth rates adjusted for 5-week months)
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
12/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 10
Figure M4 - 12 Month Rolling Worldwide Unit Sales & ASPs By Product (Cont)(Units In Billions & ASP In US$ Dollars)
M4e - Total Optoelectronics Units
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
Nov
Dec
Jan09
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan10
M4f - Total Optoelectronics ASP
0.16
0.17
0.18
0.19
0.20
0.21
0.22
0.23
0.24
Nov
Dec
Jan09
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan10
Jan 2010 vs Jan 2009 41.7%
Jan 2010 vs Dec 2009 27.6%
Jan 2010 vs Jan 2009 0.6%
Jan 2010 vs Dec 2009 -11.0%
M4g - Total Discretes Units
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
Nov
Dec
Jan09
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan10
M4h - Total Discretes ASP
0.055
0.060
0.065
0.070
0.075
0.080
0.085
Nov
Dec
Jan09
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan10
Jan 2010 vs Jan 2009 127.5%
Jan 2010 vs Dec 2009 16.8%
Jan 2010 vs Jan 2009 -18.3%
Jan 2010 vs Dec 2009 -5.2%
Source: WSTS/Future Horizons (Growth rates adjusted for 5-week months)
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
13/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 11
Industry CapacityOverall MOS wafer fab capacity increased marginally by 0.4 percent in Q4 versus
Q3-09, from 1,877k 200mm equivalent wafer starts per week to 1,884k, Figure
C1. Only 300mm leading edge capacity showed any increase in the quarter, at
around 3.7 percent growth, Table C1 and Figures C2 and C3. This increased was
not enough to offset the previous quarters 0.7 percent decline but is a reversal of
the 1.6 percent quarterly decline reported this time last year.
Overall MOS capacity is down 12.3 percent from Q4-2008 and on a par with
where it was in the first half of 2007. Capacity has been essentially flat for the last
three consecutive quarters.
Figure C1 - MOS Wafer Fab Capacity By Feature Size(200mm Equ Wafer Starts/Week x000)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
1 Q- 05 2Q -0 5 3 Q-0 5 4 Q- 05 1 Q- 06 2 Q- 06 3 Q- 06 4 Q- 06 1 Q- 07 2 Q- 07 3 Q-0 7 4 Q- 07 1 Q-08 2Q -08 3Q -08 4Q -08 1Q -0 9 2 Q- 09 3 Q- 09 4 Q- 09
200mmEquWSpWx
1000
0.7m & Above < 0.7m to 0.4m < 0.4m to 0.3m< 0.3m to 0.2m < 0.2m to 0.16m < 0.16m to 0.12m< 0.12m to 0.08m < 0.08m to 0.06m < 0.06m
Source: SICAS/Future Horizons
Table C1 Q4-09 vs Q3-09 Wafer Fab Capacity Increase By Wafer Size
Wafer Technology wsw (k) Q4 vs Q3
Total MOS 6.9 0.4%
200mm Wafers in MOS Total -26.4 -4.0%
300mm Wafers In MOS Total 37.6 3.7%150mm & Below Wafers in MOS Total -4.3 -2.3%
BIPOLAR (5 inch equivalents) -1.3 -1.0%
TOTAL IC's (8 inch equivalents) 6.4 0.3%
Source: SICAS/Future Horizons
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
14/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 12
Figure C2 - MOS Wafer Fab Capacity By Wafer Size(200mm Equ Wafer Starts/Week x000)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
1Q-05 2Q-05 3Q-05 4Q-05 1Q-06 2Q-06 3Q-06 4Q-06 1Q-07 2Q-07 3Q-07 4Q-07 1Q-08 2Q-08 3Q-08 4Q-08 1Q-09 2Q-09 3Q-09 4Q-09
150mm & Under 200mm 300mm
Source: SICAS/Future Horizons
Figure C3 - MOS Wafer Fab Mix By Feature Size(200mm Equ Wafer Starts/Week x000)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1 Q- 05 2 Q- 05 3 Q-0 5 4Q -05 1 Q-0 6 2Q -0 6 3 Q- 06 4Q -06 1 Q- 07 2 Q- 07 3 Q- 07 4Q -0 7 1 Q-0 8 2 Q- 08 3 Q- 08 4Q -0 8 1 Q- 09 2 Q-0 9 3Q -0 9 4Q -09
200mmEquWSpWx1000
0.7m & Above < 0.7m to 0.4m < 0.4m to 0.3m< 0.3m to 0.2m < 0.2m to 0.16m < 0.16m to 0.12m< 0.12m to 0.08m < 0.08m to 0.06m < 0.06m
Source: SICAS/Future Horizons
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
15/44
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
16/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 14
Figure C5 - MOS Wafer Fab Capacity Utilisation(Percent Of Total)
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
1Q-99
1Q-00
1Q-01
1Q-02
1Q-03
1Q-04
1Q-05
1Q-06
1Q-07
1Q-08
1Q-09
200mmWaferStarts/Week
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Utilisation
Total MOS Capaci ty Uti lis ati on %
Source: SICAS/Future Horizons
Figure C6 - Advanced MOS Wafer Fab Capacity Utilisation(Percent Of Total)
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1Q-99
1Q-00
1Q-01
1Q-02
1Q-03
1Q-04
1Q-05
1Q-06
1Q-07
1Q-08
1Q-09
200mmWaferStarts/Week
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Utilisation
A dvanced M OS Capacity Ut ilis at ion %
Source: SICAS/Future Horizons
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
17/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 15
Figure C7 - MOS 200mm & 300mmWafer Fab Capacity Utilisation(Percent Of Total)
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1Q-99
1Q-00
1Q-01
1Q-02
1Q-03
1Q-04
1Q-05
1Q-06
1Q-07
1Q-08
1Q-09
200mm Utilisation % 300mm Utilisation % Full Capacity
Source: SICAS/Future Horizons
It doesnt get more sold out than this and this at the START of the IC
recovery cycle. Given the further 46 percent cut back in 2009 Cap Ex spending,
2010 capacity will be scarcer than hens teeth. Foundry price rises, extended leadtimes, allocations and premiums for priority delivery will dominate the landscape
watch out for an awful lot of fabless and fablite firms to be caught with their
trousers down committed to woefully low IC ASPs based on anticipated
continuingly low foundry wafer prices.
2010s capacity cannot increase much beyond todays level, so any increase in die
output is dependent on shrinks and yield improvements. 2011s capacity increase
will depend on 2010 Cap Ex, off to a flat start on Q4-09. This means capacity
will be tight through at least mid-2011 yet industry is STILL in collective denial.
We have said it before and well say it again. There is already not enough
capacity in place to meet 2010s demand, 2011 will be even worse the fablitemodel will be the worst hit by this shortage; depending on who you are, the
fabless firms wont escape unscathed either. Never forget the FSA (now renamed
GSA) was formed in 1994 as a direct result of the wafer starvation caused by the
early 1990s Cap Ex underinvestment and the 1993-1994 market boom. Dj vu?
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
18/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 16
World Economic Round UpWorld Economy
The global recession was made in America, but the recovery is being made in
Asia. During the crisis, emerging market consumers (Asia), more numerous and
better off than they were a couple of decades ago, outspent American consumers
for the first time in modern history. Experts calculate emerging market consumers
will account for 34 percent of global consumption, and US consumers 27 percent
in 2010.
It therefore appears that the Asian markets have done the same for the world in
2009 that the US consumers did back in 1998 (during the Asian financial crises).
However, Asia cannot lead the world to growth by itself. Their economies rely onexports, and they need the worlds mature economies - the US, Europe and Japan
to make a recovery sooner rather than later. None are yet healthy, but the US is
doing better than the others.
The US economy is growing helped by a mix of fiscal and monetary stimulus
along with the eagerness of businesses to rebuild depleted inventories. But by the
standards of past recoveries, it is not growing very fast. March saw oil dip toward
US$82 a barrel and gold slipped towards US$1 120/oz, reacting to the dollar
strengthening against the euro.
North America
Despite the Federal Reserve (FED) announcement that the labour market wasstabilising (it held steady at 9.7 percent in February) and business spending on
equipment and software significantly rose, the US Central Bank are to keep
interest rates close to zero for an extended period.
Despite the labour market stabilising, American businesses and the government
shed 36,000 positions in February compared to 26,000 in January; however, this is
better than the 60,000 industry experts predicted. US consumers increased their
borrowing for the first time in a year, indicating Americans may be starting to feel
more comfortable about spending.
The US manufacturing sector continued to expand in February. The
manufacturing index of activity was 56.5, down 1.9 from a month earlier, but a
number above 50 represents expansion. Manufacturing has played a significantrole in the nascent recovery, even adding jobs as other industries cut them.
New home construction fell in February as snowstorms and wavering demand
deterred building. The fragile state of the economic recovery still warranted a
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
19/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 17
very loose monetary policy and the FED is not expected to change this any timesoon.
Eurozone
The eurozones recovery remains fragile. Service sector companies are struggling
to keep pace with export-led growth in manufacturing and Februarys GDP
announcement of just 0.1 percent in the last three months of 2009 has done
nothing to boost confidence in the 16-country region. This poor performance is
likely to keep interest rates on hold at 1 percent for the remainder of the year, and
economists continue to predict the eurozone to expand just 0.7 percent in 2010.
Despite this, the European Central Bank (ECB) is continuing to unveil its own
plans to unwind economic stimulus.
The number of Europeans with jobs dropped in 2009 for the first time in the 14-
year history of the statistic, and experts predict that it could fall again in 2010 if
the fragile economic recovery fails to gain strength. January saw retail sales fall
with economists blaming the harsh winter weather. But, with people concerned
about job security February sales could fall further. February saw the Euro
tumble to a one-year low against the yen and 4.8 per cent against the dollar this
year, hurt by the persistent worries about Greeces fiscal woes.
Germanys economy did not grow at all in the fourth quarter of 2009 and the only
reason it didnt contract was that German industry managed to boost exports to
healthier economies. It is predicted that Germanys budget deficit will rise to
almost 6 percent in 2010. Spain continues to operate in a double-digit budget
deficit and an unemployment rate of nearly 19 percent. Greece currently has a
public deficit of 12.7 percent, four times higher than eurozone rules allow.
UK
The UK economy grew by 0.3 percent in the final three months of 2009, faster
than expected. This was due to stronger growth in services and production.However, British unemployment rose sharply in January after two months of
decline and is expected to rise again in the coming months. Average earnings rose
at a record-low pace for a third straight month.
Despite the British Retail Consortium (BRC) reporting an increase in sales from a
year earlier, they also warned that these are not strong results. The results are
compared with very weak figures from a year ago. The Bank of England (BOE)has not ruled out further quantitative easing programmes and has said the UK now
needs to secure growth from investment and net exports rather than household and
government consumption.
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
20/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 18
The beginning of March saw sterling extend losses to a nine month low againstthe dollar as uncertainty about looming national elections, combined with a higherthan predicted public borrowing rate of 4.3 billion in January, compared to the
predicted 2.8 billion. February saw mortgage lending edge 6 percent higher than
January, however this is still the second lowest since February 2000.
House prices recorded their first monthly fall since June 2009 with a 1.5 percent
drop in February. The end of the stamp duty holiday, the cold weather and more
properties being put up for sale caused the drop. The average home is now worth
166,857. Consumer price inflation hit 3.5 percent in January, well above the
BOE 2 percent target, although it is expected to fall back within target by the end
of the year. Car production rose for the fourth successive month in February with
weaker sterling cited as one of the factors helping the industry.Japan
Japans economy grew at a slower rate than previously thought in the fourth
quarter of 2009. GDP expanded at an annualised rate of 3.8 percent in the fourth
quarter of 2009, less than the 4.6 percent predicted. Currently the worlds second
largest economy, Japan risks ending the year in third place as it struggles to cope
with renewed deflation and a shrinking population. However, the Bank of Japan
(BOJ) said they are striving to end deflation by the end of 2010.
Japans strong yen is also causing them problems. The yen is 18 percent stronger
than it was in August 2008 compared to an inflation-adjusted basket of currencies
weighted toward Japans largest trade partners. The strong yen has negatively
affected exports. Japans debt problem is now likening them to Greece. The main
tool to be considered to ease the debt problem is an increase in sales tax to 5
percent (almost 15 percent lower than European tax levels).
However, even at 5 percent experts worry it could knock consumer spending and
push the country back into recession. It was not all bad news as January sawJapans jobless rate and consumer spending improve. However, industry experts
warn these positive trends could be short lived once the government stimulus
measures expire.
China
The rapid growth in Chinas bank lending and investment spending slowed in
February. Chinese inflation hit a 16-month high in February and industry expertshave warned Bejing to unwind stimulus measures even further to avoid further
inflation. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the nations key inflation gauge, rose
2.7 percent in February from a year earlier the fastest rise in more than a year.
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
21/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 19
However, the Chinese New Year holiday may have impacted this, with peoplebuying more food and travelling over the holiday, which tends to drive up prices.Interest rates, which have been on hold since 2007, may now rise in the second
quarter of 2010. Some experts are still worried that the government is not doing
enough to prevent the economy from overheating.
Chinas exports jumped by 46 percent in February compared with a year ago,
raising hopes of a strong recovery in global trade. This increase is likely to
increase pressure on the government to raise the value of the yuan, which the US
in particular complains it is undervalued, in order to boost exports. As China
powers out of the recession there is growing pressure on policymakers to let the
yuan appreciate.
India
Indias economy is expected to grow by 8.7 percent in the current fiscal year.
Their economy is recovering faster than expected, growing at an annual rate of 7.9
per cent in the three months to the end of September 2009. Weakness in
agriculture had checked the speed of Indias recovery after a growth of 9 percent a
year before the global financial crisis, however, strong growth in Indias
manufacturing sector is also helping to compensate for falling agricultural output.
The government has stressed the need to cut Indias fiscal deficit, as well as cut
public debt and spending. The budget deficit has grown to its highest level in
more than 15 years, at 6.9 percent of GDP. There plan is to cut this to 5.5 percent
by 2011. The government realise there is a huge threat of inflation which needs to
be controlled. In December 2009 prices rose by more than 15 percent, the highest
rate of inflation in 11 years.
Asia Pacific
The global recessions recovery is being made in Asia. Thailands economy
expanded at an annual rage of 15.3 percent in the fourth quarter and Taiwansgrew at 18 percent. It would appear that it is the Asian countries closely linked to
China i.e Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore that have been growing the fastest.
However, China cannot take the full credit for this growth, Asia consumers are
doing their part too.
In January auto sales in Malaysia were up 33 percent from a year earlier compared
to only 6 percent in the US, and not far behind Indias 50 percent. Asiaunemployment rates are falling and this has given Asians the confidence to travel
and spend. Personal travel is a real indicator of consumer spending and tourism is
a good industry to stimulate growth. South Korea in particular has come out of
the financial crisis so fast that they have seen prompt interest rate rises.
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
22/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 20
Russia/CIS Mixed Blessings In UkraineEven in Ukraine, elections can end. After two rounds of voting and weeks of legal
rumbles, Viktor Yanukovich has been inaugurated as Ukraines fourth
democratically elected president. In November 2004 he tried and failed to steal
the crown. Now he has played (mostly) by the rules - and won. Although Yulia
Tymoshenko, his charismatic rival and Ukraines prime minister, refuses to
recognise Mr Yanukovichs victory, she withdrew her legal appeals this week.
Ukraines highest office has thus moved from an incumbent to an opposition
leader, a rare achievement in an ex-Soviet republic.
Mr Yanukovichs legitimacy is now accepted by the worlds leaders and not justby Russias prime minister, Vladimir Putin, who rashly congratulated him on his
rigged victory in 2004. This time Moscow made no such crude statements.
Instead, it asserted its feelings of fraternity towards Kiev by dispatching Patriarch
Kirill, head of the Russian Orthodox Church, to bless Mr Yanukovich before his
inauguration. This says as much about Mr Yanukovichs piety as about Moscows
tactic of using the church to extend its influence. Rarely have the Russians used
soft power so well. Yet Mr Yanukovich, conscious of his pro-Russian image,
tried to downplay the patriarchs visit, and is planning his first foreign visit to
Brussels, not Moscow.
His biggest problems lie at home, where his slender victory is yet to turn into real
power. Ms Tymoshenkos legal challenge was not meant to overturn the election
or trigger street protests. Her aim was to rally supporters by showing that she
never gives up, to label Mr Yanukovichs victory illegitimate and to blameUkraines corrupt courts for cynically refusing to establish the truth. All this
was meant to chip away at Mr Yanukovichs mandate. As it is, he is the first
directly elected president in Ukraines history to win with less than 50 percent of
the vote.
The election has affirmed Ukraine as a functioning democracy, but it has neither
brought political stability nor resolved the crippling question of where power lies
in a country of 46 million people. Ukraine is still trapped in the constitutional
compromise agreed to by the outgoing president, Viktor Yushchenko, which
divides executive power between the President and a Prime Minister chosen by
the Verkhovna Rada (parliament). This means that, despite his win, Mr
Yanukovich can do little without a new parliamentary coalition.
Creating one has proved harder than he expected, not least because of conflictinginterests in his own Party of Regions. After a long and expensive campaign, his
backers want to turn his victory into profit and are thus reluctant to share power.
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
23/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 21
Ms Tymoshenko is now calling on the Rada to hold a confidence vote in hergovernment. Her nominal coalition could formally break up shortly, but even thatwould not resolve Mr Yanukovichs problem.
Mr Yanukovich may muster sufficient votes to oust Ms Tymoshenko as prime
minister. But to form a majority coalition he needs the support of Mr
Yushchenkos Our Ukraine block. Our Ukraines deputies have their own
financial and political interests - and satisfying them does not come cheaply. Ms
Tymoshenko is also bidding to hang on to some of the partys deputies. Despite
Mr Yushchenkos spectacular defeat in the presidential election - he won just 5
percent of the vote in the first round - his party is now in a position to be
kingmaker.
Despite the cynicism of Ukrainian politics, ideology plays a part in all this. OurUkraine draws support exclusively from western Ukraine, the more nationalistic
part. Its voters will see betrayal in any alliance with Mr Yanukovich, who madehis first victory speech in Russian, who has suggested that the Russian Black Sea
fleet may stay in Sebastopol after its lease runs out in 2017, and who has offered
Gazprom the lure of a joint consortium to operate Ukraines gas pipelines. The
blessing by Kirill may be the last straw.
To make an alliance more palatable, Mr Yanukovich may have to accept a
compromise prime minister. One choice is Arseniy Yatseniuk, a former central
banker who has served as foreign minister and speaker of the Rada. Mr
Yatseniuk, who himself tried for the presidency, has proved flexible in dealing
with different political forces and yet is popular with Our Ukraines voters. He isalso said to be favoured by Rinat Akhmetov, Ukraines richest tycoon and Mr
Yanukovichs sponsor.
Yet part of the new presidents entourage feels this would be too much of a
concession to a losing party. Mr Yanukovich would prefer to see an old comrade,Nikolai Azarov, as Prime Minister. Mr Azarov served as Mr Yanukovichs deputy
in 2006 and is loyal to him rather than to Mr Akhmetov. He is seen by some as an
ideal caretaker Prime Minister who could bring Ukraines dire public finances into
some sort of order, even if he may not turn out to be much of a reformer.
If Mr Yanukovich fails to build a new coalition, he will have to call a new
parliamentary election. This may be the best way to break the stalemate. It would
certainly be more democratic than gluing together a coalition dependent only on
participants vested interests. But it would be risky for Mr Yanukovich. Given
his narrow win in the presidential election, there is a chance that his party would
lose more seats than it would gain in a parliamentary vote.
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
24/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 22
Serhiy Tyhypko, who came third in the first round of the presidential election,taking votes from both front-runners, will form a faction and have demands of hisown. Unlike Mr Yatseniuk, Mr Tyhypko is seen as a potential rival to Mr
Yanukovich.
The next few months may bring more clarity. But for the moment Ukraines
politics continues to be in chaos and its politicians are too busy making deals to
pay much attention to the countrys economic problems - or its national interests.
Economic Case Study Big vs Small Government
Under the rein of Blair (UK) and Clinton (US), downsizing the State and
privatising State-run companies was the fashion of the day. Due to the globalcrisis it appears the trend of the BIG government is returning. The US has seen
its financial capital shift from New York to Washington DC, and the government
has been trying to extend its control over the healthcare industry. Britain has seen
many of its banks collapse only to be rescued and essentially nationalised by the
government.
The obvious reason for this change is the financial crisis. Global markets
collapsed like a pack of cards from car manufacturers, banks, financial
organisations and even organizations deemed too big to fail. Following Lehman
Brothers collapse, the American government found itself the proud owners of
General Motors and Chrysler, whilst the British government found themselves
running high street banks.
However, there is evidence that both the US and Britain were on the march forBIG Government before the collapse of Lehmans. UK Prime Minister Gordon
Brown reverted from his Mr Prudent reputation of the first three years to an Old
Labour spending binge. He increased National Health Service spending by 6
percent a year and boosted spending on education. Labours 13 year reign has
seen two thirds of all new jobs created in the public sector, with pay growing
faster than in the private sector.
America on the other hand was never reserved with money. In 2001, Bush
responded to the September 11th terrorist attacks by spending huge sums on
weapons. He also added a big new drugs entitlement to Medicare, created the
Department of Homeland Security and expanded the federal governments control
over education and the states.
Public spending is not the only way to indicate the states power. Americas
federal government employs a quarter of a million bureaucrats whose job is to
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
25/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 23
write and apply federal regulations. The power of the regulations is growing allthe time. It seems there are now rules on everything and anything.
However, it appears that the majority of American and British citizens meet these
changes with wide spread approval. There are some logical reasons for this
acceptance.
1) The demand for public services will soar in the coming decades. The worlds
aging population is expected to rise significantly, the over 60s population
group is expected to rise from 11 percent today to 22 per cent by 2050. In the
developed world by 2050 one in three people will be pensioners and one in ten
will be over 80. In America alone more than ten thousand babies will become
eligible for social security and Medicare every day for the next two decades.
2) Fear of terrorism and crime has helped to inflate the state. Britain has one
CCTV camera for every 14 people, and under Bush, there was a massive
programme of telephone tapping before the Supreme Court shut it down.
3) Some of the worlds largest companies are now either directly owned or
substantially owned by the state, with numbers likely to grow. Chinese state
controlled companies have been buying up private companies and Russias
state controlled companies have a long history of purchasing private
companies on the cheap.
4) Concern over global warming and an implicit acceptance that government
intervention is needed to deter people and companies from over heating the
world and to change their behaviour.
However, the economic crisis may have promoted state growth in the short term,
but in the long term it is likely to incur serious cuts in public spending, especially
in those regions where public debt is high. It may however transpire that these
cuts may be difficult to make in reality, for example, if people continue to retire atage 65s, they may go on to live for another 20 years. With an increasing aging
population, this will place huge demands on government spending, unless they
simultaneously increase the age of retirement.
Within the public sector, 75 percent of public officials are in some sort of pay for
performance scheme and in America, 30 percent of people in the public sector areunionised, compared with seven percent in the private sector, all who enjoy better
pension rights and higher pay. Add the above to the perverse incentives used by
the politicians to buy public sector votes using public money means governments
can still spend a lot of money without actually improving public sector services.
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
26/44
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
27/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 25
The lack of agreement caused the IEEE Standards Association to disband theIEEE 802.15.3a Task Group. Nevertheless, some of the world's top chip firmsstill consider the UWB market important, especially for the high volume and
potentially lucrative home consumer market.
The industry was helped, during 2006, by some more concrete applications for
wideband wireless Bluetooth version 3.0 and wideband wireless USB links. An
example of wireless USB hub currently in production is shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1 UWB Wireless-USB Hub
Source: Belkin/Future Horizons
On 28 March 2006, the Bluetooth Special Interest Group announced its selection
of the WiMedia Alliance Multi-Band Orthogonal Frequency Division
Multiplexing (MB-OFDM) version of UWB for integration with current Bluetoothwireless technology (although it does also see the Bluetooth protocol stack being
used with WiFi as well). However, in 2009, the Bluetooth SIG made an
announcement concerning Bluetooth 3.0 High Speed, which (notably) did not
mention UWB and only 802.11 as the physical layer, which must come as a
warning sign for UWB technology.
Unfortunately, UWB has seen a number of technical and standards issues and
although the technology shows some promise, the full potential has yet to be
realised. Despite the initial optimism over the use of UWB a number of
companies have either been taken over or ceased operations. Tzero Technologies
joined a shakeout of UWB manufacturers in 2009 that also claimed Focus
Enhancements. WiQuest and Artimi also merged with Staccato to pool resources.
Intel also announced that it was stopping development in November 2008.
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
28/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 26
Bluetooth technology using the UWB physical radio layer has the capability tomeet the high-speed demands of synchronising and transferring large amounts ofdata but at the moment appears to be beset by technical problems with a very
much lower than expected data rate in current silicon. However, these problems
are likely to be temporary and it could still be an ideal solution to enable high-
quality video and audio applications for portable devices, multi-media projectors
and television sets.
Home video networking applications cannot easily be met using existing wire-
based technologies (for installation and aesthetic reasons), and modified existing
wireless technology is struggling to meet the latest video networking
requirements. UWB could resolve most of these issues at least in a single room -
at short range. It does, however, need the broad agreement of the consumerelectronics industry on standards for this to happen. If it does, then home video
networking applications could drive UWB with connections likely to be seen on abroad range of consumer products.
In summary UWB has lost some traction because of standards and technical
problems but Future Horizons believes the technology is delayed rather than dead
and our forecast for unit sales in Figure 2 shows steady growth from 2011
onwards.
Figure 2 Worldwide UWB Unit Sales, 2004-2014
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
UWB Semi M. Units 0 0 0 1 7 11 57 287 574 775 1400
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F
Source Future Horizons March 2010
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
29/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 27
Semiconductor Spotlight Photovoltaic DevelopmentsPhotovoltaic (PV) cells are arrays of cells that convert radiation from the sun into
(direct current) electrical energy. This conversion happens without intermediate
steps although the efficiency of the conversion can vary. Semiconductor materials
used for photovoltaic devices include various types of silicon and other
semiconductors with dopants including boron and phosphorus.
The increasing interest in green energy sources including photovoltaic modules
has spurred research and development in PV especially in the last four years.
Production has been increasing, especially, as government grants and incentives
have become available for smaller installations.
Although the total power produced by PV modules installed worldwide hasincreased significantly in the last two years it is still a very small percentage of the
electricity produced by fossil fuels and is still far behind nuclear power stations.
The worldwide production from photovoltaic sources is approximately 21
Gigawatts and for nuclear is 370 Gigawatts
The PV effect is caused by photons of light stimulating electrons into a higher
state of energy. When a photon is absorbed, the energy of the photon is
transferred to an electron in an atom of the semiconductor cell photodiode. The
higher energy electron is able to escape from its normal position associated with
the atoms in the material to become part of the current in an electrical circuit.
The absence of the electron in its usual position causes a hole to form and the
current flows through the PN junction with enough voltage and current to drive aload viz.charge a battery or light a light bulb. Polysilicon (c-Si) is the primarymaterial of wafers used to fabricate crystalline silicon solar cells but cheaper
alternatives are being developed such as thin film (CdTe) casting wafers instead of
sawing, thin film copper indium gallium and selenium (CIGS), as well amorphous
and microcrystalline silicon.
Almost all photovoltaic devices are an adapted photodiode with a large light
collecting area. An example of a solar cell arrangement is given in Figure S1.
The semiconductor interest is primarily in the PV cell itself but there is also the
need for control and management of the system using microprocessors and also
the components necessary for the inverter. The inverter is needed to bring the low
voltage direct current battery or from the solar cell to AC mains voltages for use in
the premises or for onward transmission to the grid.
Advances in technology and increases in manufacturing competence have resulted
in price reductions for PV solar cells and modules, which is typical of other
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
30/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 28
semiconductor devices. Financial incentives, including attractive feed-in tariffsfor solar-generated electricity, have also led to growth of solar PV installations inmany countries where these incentives exist. Australia, China, Germany, Greece,
Israel, Japan, Spain and the United States are examples of countries where
incentives are offered and others are set to follow.
Figure S1 - Photvoltaic Cell & System
Source US Department Of Energy/Future Horizons
Solar PV installations can either be stand-alone or connected to the grid depending
on the location. Stand-alone applications include cellular base stations, telemetry,
electrical power for remote buildings, rural communities, parking meters and
emergency telephones. Grid connected systems are used in houses and in
industrial buildings as a supplementary source of power. Some more extensivearrays for commercial energy production are also grid connected.
Many governments are pushing green energy and solar cells and arrays are
important components in the mix of renewable energy options, especially for
smaller installations and also on a larger scale in more extensive arrays in suitable
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
31/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 29
locations. Because of this, the demand for PV cells has almost doubled every twoyears for the last seven years, despite the relatively high cost of installation and along time for payback (tens of years).
Further reductions in the cost of PV installations will reduce this payback and
encourage future market growth. The main suppliers of PV modules include
Suntech, Sharp, JV Solar, Q-Cells, BP Solar and SunPower.
The economic downturn did have an effect on the PV market but it has shown
some resilience and despite a build up of inventory in the early part of 2009 the
inventory has mostly been consumed during the upturn in the second half of the
year. The forecast in Figure S2 shows the growth in the generation capacity of PV
modules to 2014.
Figure S2 - PV Generation Capacity Production Forecast
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
YEAR
Gigawatts
Source Future Horizons March 2010
Thin film based technologies will grow its share of total production from 15
percent in 2008 to over 35 percent by 2014. The technology is advancing and
prices are falling which will encourage uptake. On the other hand, this growthwill be negatively affected by the gradual reduction of government subsidies either
as direct grants or the benefit of generous feed-in-tariffs.
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
32/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 30
To summarise, the PV market is still growing and is forecast to grow at a CAGRof 54 percent between 2008 and 2014. The effective price of PV silicon andmodules will reduce by approximately 40 percent during the same period, which
will encourage this growth. The forecast does not include the essential peripherals
such as inverters, which will also add to the semiconductor total for these
installations.
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
33/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 31
This Page Left Intentionally Blank
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
34/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 32
IEF2010 - Sign Up NowMay 5-7, Hilton International, Dresden, Germany
A proven industry catalyst, this Forum is the world s premier networking andvisionary event for defining and shaping future electronics industry directions.Past delegate quotation: This Forum is a must do for every industry
executives calendar I can do serious business here.
For more details and on-line ordering visit: www.futurehorizons.com
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
35/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 33
Exchange RatesFigure R1 shows the weekly Euro exchange rate vs the US$ and UK for 2009.
Figure R2 shows the historical trend since its 1st Jan 1999 launch.
Figure R1 - 2010 Exchange Rate Trend(Euro vs. US$/UK)
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
Jan04-09
Jan25
Feb15
Mar08
Mar29
Apr19
May10
May31
Jun21
Jul12
Aug02
Aug23
Sep13
Oct04
Oct25
Nov15
Dec06
Dec27
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
1.50
1.55
1.60/Euro $/Euro
Figure R2 - Exchange Rate History, 1999-To Date(Euro vs. US$/UK)
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
Jan1999
Jul
Jan2000
Jul
Jan2001
Jul
Jan2002
Jul
Jan2003
Jul
Jan2004
Jun
Jan2005
Jul
Jan2006
Jul
Jan2007
Jul
Dec31
Jul
Dec29
Jul29
Dec28
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60/Euro $/Euro
Jan 1999 Launch Rates
Source: Financial Times/Future Horizons
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
36/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 34
Tired Of Over Paying For
Market Research Reports Or Due Diligence?
We ARE the Global Semiconductor Industry Analysts. We DO NOT
charge stratospheric prices for so-called 'information services', essentially a
hyped-up name for ad hoc/multi-client reports. NOR do we hold our clients
to ransom by the age-old technique of bundling up products to lock out
competition. We DO, however, offer a better value alternative, with a
research efficiency and analysis that is second to none.
We know old habits are hard to break, but with budgets tight and discretionary
spending curtailed, the time for change is long overdue Future Horizons is
proud to be at the forefront of this change. This is no dream, just a win-win
situation for us both. You save substantially on your valuable market research
dollars, and the more you support us, the more we can help you.
Market Research Reports - Covering The Basic Industry Statistics
Informed Analysis -From Industry-Experienced Experts
Monthly Newsletters -For The Latest News & Information
Dedicated Research -For Added Insight & Analysis
Flexible Resource Support -From A Few Hours To A Custom Study
Clearly Defined Objectives - You Get Exactly What You Want Predefined Budget - You Pay Only For What You Need
Founded in 1989, Future Horizons offers the highest possible standards in all of its
activities, be it industry reports, consulting assignments, engineering support
services, or industry symposia. Our current range of research reports includes:
Global Semiconductor Update Report (12 issues p/a)
Penn On Paper Newsletter (12 issues p/a)
East European Report Newsletter (12 issues p/a)
Annual Semiconductor Report
Semiconductor Application Markets Report
European Fabless Semiconductor Report (Optional Database) European Semiconductor Wafer Fabrication Capacity (Optional Database)
Russian Electronics Industry Report
Russia & The Other Countries Of The Former USSR IC Manual
East European Semiconductor Report
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
37/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 35
Summary Of Key Reports 2010 Reports Now OutBrochure downloads are available from our website. Reports can be purchased online, by fax, oremail and are supplied in A4-ring binder and CD-ROM format. Respect copyright laws, multi-
user/site licenses are required for additional users and/or posting on company Intranets.
Global Semiconductor Update Report
A CEO favourite, this report is all a busy executive needs to keep in touch with industry trends. E-
mailed monthly, the report provides a useful industry momentum indicator by compiling 12-monthly rolling charts for Units, Average Selling Prices (ASP) and Revenues broken down by totalSC, IC, Optoelectronics and Discretes. Also included is a review of the world economy, broken
out by region, plus a monthly feature on a key semiconductor market driver. The link between theeconomy and the semiconductor industry is not perfect but by measuring and understanding theimpact of wafer fab capacity on lead-times and prices, and by monitoring the level of system OEM,
distribution and semiconductor company inventory, more sense can be made of this fundamentallyunstable industry. The report focus is on in-depth analysis and the underlying industry trends.
Annual Semiconductor Report
This report provides market analyses and forecasts of the worldwide and European semiconductormarket analysed by major product and application segments. This value-added bundle is a must-have for anyone interested in the global semiconductor market and European market size detail.
Semiconductor Application Markets Report(Previously called the Key Market Drivers Report)
The Annual Semiconductor report provides a detailed analysis of the key semiconductor end-user
applications and industry market drivers, collectively accounting for around 90 percent of the totalIC market. Individual chapters, available for separate purchase, describe how each applicationworks, the technology used, the unit sales history and forecast, the semiconductor content and the
associated semiconductor market size. This vital research resource volume is a proven industryfavourite. Individual applications are also available as separate reports; please call for details.
European Fabless Semiconductor Report(Previously called the European Chipless & Fabless IC Design House Report)
This report covers the European and Israeli, chipless, fabless and independent IC design housecommunity, and is essential for those planning the resources of subcontracting new product design,
both in the semiconductor industry and the final system end product. It will also prove invaluablefor authorities and government departments, planning and directing economic growth, as well ascompanies seeking investments, potential partners or acquisitions. As an added user benefit,
chipless and fabless IC design house company database is available in Excel format as an optionalCD extra (not available separately), with both pre-organised sorts (by country, design skill and
application) and in raw data format allowing customised searches and analyses. This best-selling
report has a proven track record as an invaluable research resource.
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
38/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 36
Annual Semiconductor Report
Updated Annually Over 370 Pages / 350 Figures & Tables
Annual Analysis & Forecast Of The
Worldwide & European SC IndustryTopics Include
Semiconductor Market & Product Forecasts
Semiconductor End-Use Markets
Global Economic Environment
Regional Market Analysis
5 Year History Plus 5 Year Forecast
- ThereISNo Better Value-Added Package -
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
39/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 37
Semiconductor Application
Markets ReportUpdated Annually - Over 450 Pages / 320 Figures & Tables
Digital TVHDD
Mobile
Phone
Navigation
DigitalStill Camera
Amusement
STB
H/PC
PDA
10:30
DigitalTV
DVD Player
SOCSOC
EngineEngine
Annual Analysis & Forecast Of The Top
Semiconductor Applications For The
Worldwide Electronics & SC Industry(Previously Called The Key Market Drivers Report)Topics Include (32 Top Applications Analysed)
Mobile Phone Handsets & GPS
Personal Computers & PDAs
Automotive Electronics & Robotics
Smartcards & RF-ID Tags
DVD Recorders & Players
Bluetooth, Wireless LANs & Wi-Fi
Digital STB & Still Cameras
Video Games Consoles
- Report Covers Around 90 Percent Of The Worldwide IC Market -
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
40/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 38
European Fabless
Semiconductor ReportUpdated Annually - Over 320 Companies Analysed
BoardChip
4 Mbit
DRAM
2 Mbit
DRAM
2 Mbit
DRAM
DISP
CPU
I/F
Graphic
Engine
Annual Strategic Analysis & Reference Guide For The
European Chipless & Fabless IC Design Industry(Previously Called The European Chipless & Fabless IC Design House Report)
Topics Include
European IC Design House Phenomenon
IC Design House Industry Drivers
IP Market Development
IC Design House Market Segmentation
IP Portfolios & Design Skills Analysed
Over 320 Design Companies Profiled (Europe & Israel)
- Includes The Popular European Fabless SC Database Disk -(Optional Extra, Available Exclusively To Report Purchasers Only)
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
41/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 39
2010 Diary Dates (Sign Up Now Online @ www.futurehorizons.com)Jan 26
th Industry Forecast Semiconductor Industry Briefing, London
Annual analysis & forecast of the European & WW semiconductor market plus B2BSpeed Networking (optional)
Jan 27th
Industry Forecast Semiconductor Industry Briefing, Geneva
Annual analysis & forecast of the European & WW semiconductor market plus B2BSpeed Networking (optional)
Mar 15th
Silicon Chip Industry Training Seminar, London
Presented in laymans terms, this seminar provides a complete overview of theintegrated circuit industry, its background, technology, manufacture & markets
Mar 16th
IC Economics Industry Workshop, London
This seminar reviews the economics of the IC manufacturing industry, covering factory
costs, yields, die size trends, process defects, and industry cost modelsMay 5-7
th International Electronics 2010 Forum
IEF2010 - 19th Annual International Electronics Industry Forum. An international forumto update market forecasts, develop new business opportunities, meet new contacts,share experiences, explore ideas, and refine strategic thinking
Jun 7th
Silicon Chip Industry Training Seminar, London
Presented in laymans terms, this seminar provides a complete overview of theintegrated circuit industry, its background, technology, manufacture & markets
Jun 8th
IC Economics Industry Workshop, London
This seminar reviews the economics of the IC manufacturing industry, covering factorycosts, yields, die size trends, process defects, and industry cost models
Jul 20th
Industry Forecast Semiconductor Industry Briefing Mid-Term Update,
London
Annual analysis & forecast of the European & WW semiconductor market plus B2BSpeed Networking (optional)
Sep 6th
Silicon Chip Industry Training Seminar, London
Presented in laymans term, this seminar provides a complete overview of the integratedcircuit industry, its background, technology, manufacture & markets
Sep 7th
IC Economics Industry Workshop, London
This seminar reviews the economics of the IC manufacturing industry, covering factorycosts, yields, die size trends, process defects, and industry cost models
Nov 22nd
- Silicon Chip Industry Training Seminar, London
Presented in laymans term, this seminar provides a complete overview of the integratedcircuit industry, its background, technology, manufacture & markets
Nov 23rd
IC Economics Industry Workshop, London
This seminar reviews the economics of the IC manufacturing industry, covering factorycosts, yields, die size trends, process defects, and industry cost models
All seminars are available on an In-House basis. Custom presentations and seminars are also available.
For more details, please call: Tel: +44 (0)1732 740440 or e-mail [email protected]
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
42/44
SMU-2010-03 Mar.doc 2010 Edition
The Global Semiconductor Monthly Report
March 2010
Future Horizons 1989-2010, All Rights Reserved - Reproduction Prohibited 40
The Complete B2B SolutionMarket Research is not an expensive luxury but a key strategic tool, not just for established firms
but also for start-ups and SMEs. It is never too timely to access industry intelligence even the best-targeted products come unstuck due to unforeseen market or competitive developments.Likewise even the best-run companies benefit from a regular external health-check in order to
make sure that their plans have not become sanitised and drifting from the real-world reality.
In the same vein, it is never too early to think about branding, even if still
operating heavily in stealth mode. As such, coincident with the November 2008
launch of our new Website, Future Horizons has combined with EML and
Freshleaf Media to provide a coherent range of B2B solutions; from industry
intelligence to branding and messaging.
Future Horizons is a global semiconductor industry analyst with over 148 man-years of electronics industry experience, starting from 1962 and the first
commercial IC. This experience covers the full industry spectrum, from chip
design to application, IC production through to business development. No other
industry analyst has the breath and depth of experience. Our research services
span market data, industry analysis, due diligence and product positioning; our
business support covers industry training through networking and contact support.
http://www.futurehorizons.com/Tel: +44 1732 740440 Email: [email protected]
EML is a technology PR agency specialising in national, regional and global
campaigns that get results. They are equally at home working with the world's
biggest technology brands and with early stage start-ups; targeting senior decision
makers or highly informed technical experts.
http://www.eml.com/ Tel: +44 20 8408 8000 Email:[email protected]
Freshleaf Media: Technology Website Experts - are experts in corporate
website design services to the high-tech electronics and engineering industries.
With 10 years experience and clients including Sentec, Innovision, CSR andFuture Horizons, Freshleaf offers a full range of professional corporate design and
development services to include; creating practical and usable B2B websites,
content management systems, making updates easy, logo and brand design and the
creation of intranets and extranets.
www.freshleafmedia.co.ukTel:+44 1202 847160 Email:[email protected]
We are all semiconductor/IT industry specialists, able to walk the walk and talkthe industry talk. Together we offer a complete B2B development solution
package, each adding a real value to your organisation.
8/9/2019 SMU-2010-03 Mar
43/44
Future Horizons Order FormPrice List Effective Jan 01, 2009 (Prices Subject To Change Without Notice)
Order on-line @ www.futurehorizons.com. E-mail: [email protected]
Three Easy Ways To Order: Online:By Fax:By mail:
Please Enter Our Order For The Following Publications (Check Appropriate Boxes)
Item Report Title Euro
1 [ ] Semiconductor Applications Market Report - Binderplus CD-ROM 3,975.00
[ ] Intranet/Site Licence 5,600.00
2 [ ] Annual Semiconductor Report (Includes 1 above)- Binderplus CD-ROM 4,580.00
[ ] Intranet/Site Licence 6,500.00
3 [ ] Global Semiconductor Update Report - By E-Mail (1 year, 12 Issues) 2,300.00
[ ] Intranet/Site Licence 3,370.00
4 [ ] European Fabless Semiconductor Report - Binder plus CD-ROM 3,975.00
[ ] Optional Database Disk(only with Report/CD-ROM) 615.00
[ ] Intranet/Site Licence (Excluding Database Disk) 5,600.00
[ ] Intranet/Site Licence (Including Database Disk) 6,200.00
5 [ ] Penn On Paper Newsletter (1 year, 12 Issues) 765.00
[ ] Intranet/Site Licence 1,700.00
6 [ ] East European Report Newsletter (1 year, 12 Issues) 765.00
[ ] Intranet/Site Licence 1,700.00
7 [ ] International Electronics Forum Proceedings - Includes Postage 620.00
8 [ ] International System & SoC Forum Proceedings - Includes Postage 620.00
9 [ ] International Forecast Seminar Proceedings - Includes Postage 690.00
10 [ x ] Shipping Costs (courier) 80.00Total Amount Due (Pre-payment or PO Number Required)
(Respect Copyright Laws - Multi User/Internal/Intranet Distribution Needs A Site Licence)
Royal Bank of Scotland, 3A Edinburgh Road, PO1 1DA, ENGLAND
BIC: RBOS GB 2L / IBAN: GB81RBOS 1610 9010 001457
Payment In Euro Only Please Call For Payment In US Dollars or UK Pounds Sterling
(Buyer Is Responsible For ALL Bank Transfer Charges)
Full Name:_________________________________________Job Title: _________________________________________
Company: _________________________________________VAT/MWS/TVA/IVR No: ___________________________
Tel:______________________________Fax: ____________________________ E-mail: __________________________
Address: ____________________________________________________________________________________________
City/ZIP/Post Code: _________________________________Country:__________________________________________
[ ] Please Invoice, PO #:______________ [ ] Bank Transfer Authorised [ ] Cheque Enclosed (drawn on a UK bankonly)
Signatur