January 19, 2011
International Convention Centre,Hyderabad, India
• Overview of Climate change• Climate Change - Development – DRM* • Social and Economic Vulnerability• South Asia Perspective• India – key climate change & DRM issues• Going Forward• World Bank’s Activities in India on CC** and DRM• Key points to take away
* DRM - Disaster Risk Management; ** CC – Climate change
• Overview of Climate change• Climate Change - Development – DRM • Social and Economic Vulnerability• South Asia Perspective• India – key climate change & DRM issues• Going Forward• World Bank’s Activities in India on CC and DRM• Key points to take away
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• Earth will get warmer on average, at unprecedented speed
2Source: World Development Report 2010
Global Temperature increases over time n Co2 concentrations
• Individuals’ emissions in high-income countries overwhelm those in developing countries
3Source: World Development Report 2010
• Impacts will be felt everywhere, including developed countries. – E.g., the 2003 heat wave killed more than 70,000 people in
Europe– but much of the damage will be in developing countries.
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• Overview of Climate change• Climate Change - Development – DRM • Social and Economic Vulnerability• South Asia Perspective• India – key climate change & DRM issues• Going Forward• World Bank’s Activities in India on CC and DRM• Key points to take away
• Poverty reduction and sustainable development remain core global priorities, particularly for developing countries …– a quarter of humanity still lives on less than $1.25 a day– one billion people lack clean drinking water; 1.6 billion,
electricity; and 3 billion, adequate sanitation; and– a quarter of all developing country children are still
malnourished
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• Development will get harder with climate change; particularly for developing countries– They are more vulnerable, bearing about 75 – 80% of the
costs of damages caused by the changing climate.– Could result in permanent reductions in GDP of 4-5% for
Africa and South Asia.
• There is possibility increasing risks towards catastrophic events related to climate change– Though the probability distribution of such catastrophic
risks is unknown, more aggressive mitigation efforts will always help.
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• Overview of Climate change• Climate Change - Development – DRM • Social and Economic Vulnerability• South Asia Perspective• India – key climate change & DRM issues• Going Forward• World Bank’s Activities in India on CC and DRM• Key points to take away
• Substantial uncertainties remain around climate change’s ecological and economic impacts
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Uncertainty UncertaintyUncertainty
Pace and Magnitude of
Warming
Pace and Magnitude of
Warming
Extremes of Weather
Extremes of Weather
Ability to adapt, costAbility to
adapt, cost
New Technology – discovery,
dissemination, adaption
New Technology – discovery,
dissemination, adaption
Quantum of un-avoided
residual damages
Quantum of un-avoided
residual damages
Effects on natural systems
and humans
Effects on natural systems
and humans
Key Factor
• Developing countries are more vulnerable, bcz..– They depend more directly on climate-sensitive natural
resources for income and well-being. – Most are in tropical and subtropical regions already
subject to highly variable climate.– They lack sufficient financial and technical capacities to
manage increasing climate risk.
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• Overview of Climate change• Climate Change - Development – DRM • Social and Economic Vulnerability• South Asia Perspective• India – key climate change & DRM issues• Going Forward• World Bank’s Activities in India on CC and DRM• Key points to take away
• Possible impacts of climate change– Water resources get affected, through effects on the monsoon– Melting of Himalayan glaciers– Rising seas may submerge much of the Maldives and inundate 18
percent of Bangladesh's land– With increasing temperatures, and sea level rise, more intense and
frequent cyclones, floods and winds are likely; increasing risks to coastal areas
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Geography, poverty and population density make South Asia more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.
• Overview of Climate change• Climate Change - Development – DRM • Social and Economic Vulnerability• South Asia Perspective• India – key climate change & DRM issues• Going Forward• World Bank’s Activities in India on CC and DRM• Key points to take away
• India is highly vulnerable to natural hazards, particularly earthquakes, flood, drought, cyclone and landslides.
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Reported Catastrophe losses in India, 1965-2001, US$M
60% landmass – earthquake prone (of varying intensities)
About 8% prone to floods
5700 / 7500 km coast, prone to cyclones
68% - susceptible to droughts
• Overview of Climate change• Climate Change - Development – DRM • Social and Economic Vulnerability• South Asia Perspective• India – key climate change & DRM issues• Going Forward• World Bank’s Activities in India on CC and DRM• Key points to take away
• an equitable and effective global climate deal is needed – between the countries of the world.
• window of opportunity is closing– to choose the right policies and promote development
• Success hinges on changing the behavior and shifting public opinion– That is why we are discussing these issues here
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• Overview of Climate change• Climate Change - Development – DRM • Social and Economic Vulnerability• South Asia Perspective• India – key climate change & DRM issues• Going Forward• World Bank’s Activities in India on CC and DRM• Key points to take away
Climate Change
• India – Options for Low Carbon Development– Develop analytical capacity to identify low-carbon growth
opportunities– facilitate informed decision making
• Andhra Pradesh Drought Adaptation pilot project– Management and Physical action plans. Learning from villages
and scaling up• State Climate change action plans
– Orissa, Himachal, Karnataka• Himachal Pradesh – Environmental Sustainability and
Climate change
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Undertaking some analytical activities and pilot projects
Disaster Risk Mgmt
• Assisting the GoI in effectively responding to disasters– Latur, Maharashtra earthquake in 1993; Orissa super-cyclone in
1999; Bhuj, Gujarat earthquake in 2001; Andhra Pradesh cyclone in 2005; the Tsunami in South India in 2004; Bihar floods in 2008
• National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project– the first ex-ante risk mitigation project in SAR – concrete example in demonstrating the linkages between
disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation benefiting vulnerable coastal communities.
– Shows India’s leadership
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More reconstruction support so far; now moved to mitigation
• Overview of Climate change• Climate Change - Development – DRM • Social and Economic Vulnerability• South Asia Perspective• India – key climate change & DRM issues• Going Forward• World Bank’s Activities in India on CC and DRM• Key points to take away
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