4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007
Solar radiation forecasting with WRF model in the Iberian Peninsula
L. Martín, J. Polo, L.F.Zarzalejo, A. NavarroEnergy department CIEMAT
R. MarchanteInvestigaciones y Recursos Solares Avanzados IRSOLAV
(www.irsolav.com)
E. Lorenz, A. Sood, K. Suselj Oldenburg University, Germany
Energy and Semiconductor Research LaboratoryEnergy Meteorology Group
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 2
Outlook
1. Motivation and objectives
2. ECMWF ERA-40 validation
3. WRF validation
4. Synoptic situation: comparison of ECMWF and WRF models
5. Conclusions
EUROSUN 2008, Lisbon, October 2008EUROSUN 2008, Lisbon, October 2008
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007
Motivation and objectives
Objectives
Validate ECMWF ERA-40 Global Model.
Validate Anailsys Mesoescale WRF Model
predictions with hourly resolution.
EUROSUN 2008, Lisbon, October 2008EUROSUN 2008, Lisbon, October 2008
The need to characterize and predict solar radiation as a solar resource is legislated in Spain by different Royal decrees (RD 436/2004 661/2007).
Solar thermal and photovoltaic plants operator will compete in energy stock market. There are two basic rules in the market.
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 4
ECMWF ERA-40 VALIDATION
•Data Period:1994-2004 ten years.•Daily Goblal Solar Radiation•Resolution 1º ≈ 100Km•Ground measurements from National Radiometric Network from AEMet.•CM11 pyranometer•Data filtered BSRN recomendations
EUROSUN 2008, Lisbon, October 2008EUROSUN 2008, Lisbon, October 2008
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007EUROSUN 2008, Lisbon, October 2008EUROSUN 2008, Lisbon, October 2008
ECMWF ERA-40 Daily Validation
W/m
2h
W/m2h
W/m
2h
W/m2h
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007EUROSUN 2008, Lisbon, October 2008EUROSUN 2008, Lisbon, October 2008
ECMWF ERA-40 Daily Validation Granada
MBD:-21.67% RMSD:27.20%
W/m
2h
W/m
2h
W/m
2h
W/m2h
W/m2h
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007
ECMWF ERA-40 Daily ValidationOviedo
MBD:-7.52% RMSD:39.55%
W/m
2h
W/m
2h
W/m
2h
W/m2hW/m2h
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 8
•Reanalisys with WRF over Europe domain with 3 nesting levels.•Initial conditions GFS.•Goblal Solar Radiation•Data Period 2005:1/1/2005 – 28/2/2005•Spatial resolution 27km•Temporal resolution 1h
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
40
45
50
55
60
65
WRF DAILY & HOURLY VALIDATION
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007EUROSUN 2008, Lisbon, October 2008EUROSUN 2008, Lisbon, October 2008 9
WRF RESULTS: HOURLY
36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 440
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100RMSE Hourly Solar Radiation Forecasting
% R
MSE
Latitude
36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20MBE Hourly Solar Radiation Forecasting
% M
BE
Latitude
Normalized MBD
Normalized RMSD
Lower to higher latitude
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007EUROSUN 2008, Lisbon, October 2008EUROSUN 2008, Lisbon, October 2008 10
WRF RESULTS: DAILY
36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 440
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90RMSE Daily Solar Radiation Forecasting
% R
MSE
Latitude
36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20MBE Daily Solar Radiation Forecasting
% M
BE
Latitude
Normalized MBD
Normalized RMSD
W/m2h
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007EUROSUN 2008, Lisbon, October 2008EUROSUN 2008, Lisbon, October 2008 11
SINOPTIC SITUATION 22/2/2005
Granada
Oviedo
CI from Meteosat 12:00
ECMWF Operational Model 12:00
W/m
2W
/m2
Albedo
ECMWF Mask L/O
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007
Conclusions
EUROSUN 2008, Lisbon, October 2008EUROSUN 2008, Lisbon, October 2008
ECMWF ERA-40 understimates daily solar irradiance. Errors are quite high.
Analisys errors of WRF model goes from 30-98% RMSD hourly and from 23-89% daily.
WRF fed with NCEP data doesn’t reproduce synoptic situations. Further improvement using data from ECMWF.
Cloud movement is a dynamic chaotic system. A paradigm based on deterministic (NWP) and probabilistic (Statistic).
RD 661/2007 needs hourly predictions with errors lower than 20%.
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007
Thank you for your attention
EUROSUN 2008, Lisbon, October 2008EUROSUN 2008, Lisbon, October 2008