St. Louis Metropolitan PoliceHomicide predictions
A-Team
Dan BurgdorfSpencer MalaneyRichard Manierski
Ryan WebsterDaniel Anthony
What Constitutes a homicide?
Definition: Homicide (Latin homicidium, homo human being + caedere to cut, kill) refers to the act of a human killing a human being.
Our Definition(s): The unlawful killing of one human being by the work of another individual
Any death being classified as a homicide by the St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department is an official homicide in the eyes of Group A (In short, we are not questioning the fine judgment of the STLMPD)
Predicting Homicides in the city of St. Louis for 2010
Study of the decline in homicides during the 1990’s Factors that Don’t affect Homicide - Daniel Factors that DID affect Homicide(s) - Ryan
“Bodies Move” - Rick Urban Development - Spencer Website and Predictions – Spencer Conclusion - Dan
Decline in Homicides in the 90’s -Stephen D. Levitt
SIX FACTORS THAT PLAYED LITTLE OR NO ROLE IN THE
DECLINE1. Strong Economy in the 1990’s2. Changing demographics3. Better Policing Strategies4. Gun Control laws5. Concealed weapons law6. Increase use of Capital
Punishment
1. The Strong Economy of the 1990s
Improvements in labor market opportunities make crime relatively less attractive
Relevant for burglary, robbery and theft, but less important for homicides, assaults and rapes
Unemployment and property crime
2. Changing Demographics
Baby boomers Older generations are less likely to
commit crimes Younger generations are more prone to
commit violent crimes Eventually both are going to offset each
other in a large picture
3. Better Policing Strategies
Community policing strategies Media attention and use of technology in
identifying crime ‘hot spots’ No known effective tool to measure
strategies
4. Gun Control Laws
Little evidence Gun buy-back programs Typical programs like this yields very few
guns Very few guns used in crimes were
licensed
5. Laws Allowing the Carrying of Concealed Weapons
Luby’s massacre Studies showing a relationship between
concealed weapons and the homicide rate are based on Empirical data that was already on the decline before the enactment of the law.
6. Increased Use of Capital Punishment
Even after introducing death penalties, homicide rate did not decline a lot
The decline rate was 1/25 So it was not really effective.
FOUR FACTORS THAT EXPLAIN THE DECLINE
1) Increases in the Number of Police
2) The Rising Prison Population
3) The Receding Crack Epidemic
4) The Legalization of Abortion
CONCLUSIONS ABOUT 90’S APPLICABLE TO OUR MODEL
Things we will need to look at further to provide more accurate predictions in 2010: Change in demographics
Age of inhabitants Race of inhabitants
Change in Police Deployment Budget cuts or gets increased Low recruitment or High recruitment
Change in rate of Incarceration Prisons become full OR new prisons open up Judges opt for probation OR opt for tougher sentencing
Change in Drug Market or drug supply Major busts in supply chain Afghanistan and Opium trade
Urban Development
Foreclosures impact on violent crimes in Charlotte, NC.
Urban Development Cont.
Wal-Mart Violent crimes were 6 times more likely to
occur in Wal-Mart parking lots than at a Target parking lots in 2004.
(sample done by WalmartCrimeReport.com) Not enough data to make conclusions
“BODIES MOVE”
“BODIES MOVE” CONT.
EXAMPLE: DISTRICT X
300 HOMICIDES 52 DETERMINED 248 “BODIES FOUND”
FEW FACTORS PREDICTING HOMICIDE DISTRICT Y
25 HOMICIDES 20 DETERMINED 5 “BODIES FOUND”
MANY FACTORS PREDICTING HOMICIDE
Conclusion
Any Questions??