Stakeholder Profile 1: Canadian Council of Forestry Ministers OverviewCanadaisaforestnation,withforestscoveringmorethan50percentofthecountry’slandmass.Large-scaledisturbances,suchasfireandpestoutbreaks,affect5percentoftheforestedareaannually.Climatedeterminesforestdistribution(location),composition(typeoftrees),productivity(theamountoftimberandwoodfibre),dynamics(interactions)anddisturbances.Assuch,climatechangeisprojectedtohavefar-reachingconsequencesforCanada’sforestsector.
Inadditiontothedirecteconomicbenefitsfromtheharvestoftimberandfibre,forestsproviderecreationalandculturalvalue,aswellasnon-timberforestproductssuchasmushroomsandberries.Ecosystemservicesprovidedbyforests,suchascleanairandwater,carbonstorage,andsoilnutrients,alsohavesocialandeconomicvalue,althoughthisisdifficulttoquantify.
ClimatechangepresentschallengestoCanada’sforestmanagers.Decisionsmadetodaywillimpacttheforestformorethan100years,giventhelonggenerationtimesoftrees.Treescancopewithacertainamountofchangeintheirenvironmentthroughphysiologicalorgeneticadaptation;buttherateoffutureclimatechangeislikelytoexceedtheabilityofforeststoadaptenoughtomaintainthelevelofgoodsandservicestheynowprovide.TheCanadianforestindustryhasbeenfacingsignificanteconomicchallenges,resultinginlostjobs,millclosures,andageneraldownturnintheforestsector.Effectiveadaptationmustaddressallofthesedriversofchangeintheforestsector.
ImpactsofclimatechangeDuetotheirnorthernlocation,Canada’sforestsareexposedtogreaterincreasesintemperaturethantheglobalaverage.Theseimpactsaremoresignificantinsomepartsofthecountrythanothers.Pastassessmentssuggestthesekeyfindings:
• Increasesindisturbances(e.g.,forestfires,pestanddiseaseoutbreaks)arealreadyevidentandwillbecomemorepronouncedinfuture.
• Forestcomposition(typesoftrees)willchangeduetochangingdisturbancesandchangingclimate.
• Accesstoforestswillbeimpactedbythesedisturbances,shiftinginfrastructurecosts,andshorterwinterharvestingseasons(duetoreducedperiodsoffrozenground).
• Forest-basedcommunitiesinsomeregionswillfacesignificantsocialandeconomicimpacts(e.g.,safetyandsecuritycosts,forestsectorjobs,andtourismmaybeaffected).Forestfiresthreatenhumanhealth,safety,andsecurity.The2011fireinSlaveLake,Alberta,resultedinanestimated$742millionininsuranceclaims.Therewillbeextracostsforprotectionandcommunityevacuations.
• Forestsprovideimportantecologicalservicessuchaswaterconservationandpurification,habitatforbiodiversity,andcarbonstorage.Treedeathduetodrought,infestation,andfirewillreducecarbonstoragecapability;andwillresultinasignificantreleaseofcarbonintotheatmosphere.(By2020,treeskilledbythemountainpinebeetleinWesternCanadawillhavereleasednearlyonebilliontonnesofcarbondioxideintotheatmosphere—roughlyequivalenttofiveyearsofemissionsfromCanada’stransportationsector.)
Possibleoutcomes
• Forestproductivitycouldincreasewithwarmertemperatures,longergrowingseasons,andincreasingcarbondioxidelevelswhenotherfactorssuchassoil,water,ornutrientsarenotanissue.
• Productivitywillbenegativelyimpactedbyincreaseddroughtandmorefrequentandseveredisturbancesandextremeweatherevents.
Existingresearch
Manypapersandreportsexploreoptionsforforestsectoradaptation,andthereareseveralexamplesofspecificmeasuresbeingimplemented.Researchneeds
• Abetterunderstandingofforestsectorvulnerabilitiesisneededtohelpfutureworkonadaptation.Ingeneral,theconceptofadaptationisnotyetwellunderstood.
• Integrationofon-the-groundmeasurementswithremotesensingdata(satellites)greatlyincreasesCanada’sabilitytomonitorforestchangesandwhethertheyaredirectlyrelatedtoclimatechange.
• Sharingdataacrossdisciplines(biology,physics,geology,meteorology,etc.)willalsohelpbuildabigpictureofthevulnerabilitiesweface.
• Significantuncertaintyremainsabout:o futureclimateconditions,o themultiple,interactingimpactsofclimatechangeoncomplexforestecosystems,ando forestresponsetothosechanges.
• ScientificunderstandingofpastandfutureclimatechangeimpactsonCanada’sforestshasincreasedsubstantivelyoverthepastdecade,butthisinformationisnotalwaysavailable,accessible,and/orapplicabletoprospectiveend-users.Infact,someintheCanadianforestryindustryhaveidentifiedalackofknowledgeaboutprospectiveadaptationoptionsasabarriertoaction.
Theinformationinthisprofilecanbefoundinthe“Forestry”sectionofCanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.70.
Mapofmountainpinebeetledistribution,showingchangeoverthe2002–06(orange)and2007–11(red)periods.Source:CanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.72.
Stakeholder Profile 2: Canadian Hydropower Association OverviewCanadaistheworld’sthird-largestproducerofhydroelectricity.Hydroelectricityaccountsfor59percentofCanada’selectricitygeneration(StatisticsCanada,2013).IntheprovincesofQuebec,BritishColumbia,Manitoba,andNewfoundlandandLabrador,morethan90percentofelectricityproductioncomesfromhydro.Ontario,Alberta,andNewBrunswickalsoproducesignificantquantitiesofhydroelectricity,whiletheYukonandNorthwestTerritoriesrelyonhydrotohelpmeetlocalenergydemand.ThemajorityofCanada’shydroproductioncomesfromlargereservoirsystems.Somecapacityisprovidedbysmallrunoff-riverpowerstations.Transboundaryelectricitymarkets,bothinter-provincialandtheUSmarket,arelarge.Becausehydropowerisabundanthere,Canadaisabletosupportindustriesthatarebigenergyconsumers,likealuminumsmelters.Climatechangeimpactshydroelectricityproductionbymakingtheamountofwateravailablemoredifficulttopredictandcontrol.ImpactsofclimatechangeInCanada,climatechangemeanslessdemandforheatingduringthewinterandmoredemandforairconditioningduringthesummer.Adaptingtoclimate-relatedchangesinenergydemandandsupplyisachallengefortheenergysectoracrossCanada,wherethemainsourceofheatingisnaturalgasandoil,andthemainsourceofcoolingiselectricity.Specificvulnerabilitiesdependongeographicsetting,primaryenergysources,andprojectedchangesinclimate.
• Peaksummerdemandforcoolingmaycoincidewithdecreasedhydroelectricpotentialinsomeareas,resultinginshortsupply.
• Hydroelectricitygenerationmaybeaffectedbyseasonalreductionsinwatersupply,particularlyinglacier-fedsystems.Suchchangesintimingofflowandpeakeventswilllikelyrequireadjustmentsinreservoirmanagementpractices.
• Transmissionofelectricityissensitivetoweather:highertemperaturemeansgreaterenergylosses;andextremeweathercancauseinfrastructuredamage,leadingtodistributionproblems.
Possibleoutcomes• Changesinthedistributionoftheflowthroughouttheyearcouldpresentstructuralproblems
withdamsandreservoirsandresultinfloods.
• Improvementintheefficiencyofappliancesandequipmentcouldreducethedemandforelectricity.
• Warmersummerscouldincreasetheuseofairconditioningunits.
• CanadamayhavetheopportunitytoexportmoreelectricitytotheUSinthesummer,butthiswouldhavetobeweighedagainstthehigherdomesticdemand.
ExistingresearchIntheenergysector,climatechangeandhydroelectricityhavereceivedalotofattentionfromindustryandresearchers.
• MostCanadianresearchhasfocusedonthehydrologicalconsequencesofachangingclimate,suchasshiftinthetimingandamountofriverflows.Thiswillvarysignificantlybetweenregionsandwithindrainagebasins.
• Recentresearchhasexpandedtomulti-criteriaanalysis(consideringmanyaspectsatonce),whichinvolvesconsideringeconomic,political,social,andenvironmentalaspectsintheanalysisofpotentialadaptationmeasuresandtheircostsandbenefits.
Researchneeds• QuantitativeanalysesonwhetherCanadianutilitieswillbeabletorespondtotheexport
opportunityofhighersummerelectricitydemandintheUS
• Adaptationstrategiestointegrateperspectivesofdifferentwaterusers(e.g.industry,government,andresidential)andchangingresourcedemands
• Studiestakingintoaccounttheuncertaintyoffuturehydrologicalprojections
• Researchonnaturaladaptationmeasures,e.g.,therestorationofwetlandstoregulateflowduringtimesoflowandpeakflows
Collaborationamongcompanies,regulators,scientistsandotherstakeholderswillincreasethelikelihoodofadaptationtoclimatechange.
Theinformationinthisprofilecanbefoundinthe“Energy”sectionofCanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.81.
Keyclimatechangeimpactsintheenergysector.Source:CanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.79.
Stakeholder Profile 3: Canadian Agriculture and Food Industry Association OverviewFoodproductionisamajoreconomicdriverinCanada,withtheagriculturesectorcontributingbillionsofdollarstooureconomy.Intwoprovinces,PrinceEdwardIslandandSaskatchewan,agricultureprovidesmoreemploymentthananyothersector.Canada’sfoodsystemisasvariedasitsgeography.Foodproductionfromagriculturereliesmostlyonintensivecultureandharvestpractices.However,non-commercialfishing,hunting,gathering,andgardeningarealsoimportantsourcesoffood.ImpactofclimatechangeClimateaffectscropproductivity;animalproduction,virility,anddiseases;pollinatorhealth;andwateravailabilityandquality.WhileallofCanadawillbeaffectedbychangesintemperatureandprecipitation,theimpactswillnotbeuniformacrossthedifferentagriculturallandscapes.Therewillbedistinctissuesforfourregions.1. EasternandcentralCanada
• Floodingfromincreasedspringrunoffmayrequirebuildingsystemslikewetlandsforwaterretention.
• Increasedtemperaturewilllengthenthegrowingseasonbutwillalsoincreaseweedsandagriculturalpestsanddiseases.
• Livestockwillneedlessheatingbutmoreairconditioning.Heatwavescannegativelyimpactanimalhealth,butwarmerwinterscanhelpfattenlivestock.
2. Northernandremotecommunities
• Climatechangeisaffectingtheavailabilityandqualityofwildfoodsuchasberries,wildrice,andgameanimals.
• Iceconditionsarechanging(changeshuntingpatterns).
• Stormsaremoreintense(affectingwildfoodgathering).
3. Prairies
• WaterissuesrepresentthegreatestconcernforthePrairies.Reducedsummerrainfallandmorefrequentdroughtsmightrequiremoreirrigationforcropsandlivestock;however,otherpressuresmaylimittheabilitytoexpandirrigatedagriculture.
4. BritishColumbia
• Managementofwaterresourceswillbeachallengebecauseofreducedsummerstreamflows,reducedgroundwaterrecharge,andincreasingdemandsforwaterfromothersectors.
Possibleoutcomes
• Amodestincreaseinagriculturalfoodproduction
• Changesincropmanagementpractices
• Expansionofmaplesyrupindustrynorthward
• Shorterice-roadseasoninnortherncommunities,posingachallengetofoodtransporttoisolatedareas
• Longermarinetransportseasoninnorthernareas,tothebenefitofcoastalcommunitieswithportfacilities
• SealevelriseincoastalregionsofBritishColumbiacouldcausefloodingoffarmlandandaffectdrinkingandirrigationwater
• ImpactonB.C.wineries,orchards,andagri-tourismduetohigherriskofpests,fires,andsummerdrought
ExistingresearchStudieshavedemonstratedthatchangesintemperatureandprecipitationwillhaveimportanteffectsonagricultureinCanada,intensifyingexistingrisksandpresentingnewones.Thesechangeswillalsocreatenewopportunitiesforeachgeographicalregion.Researchneeds• Morestudiesinyieldpredictions(assumingthatcropproductivitycouldeitherincreaseordecrease
inachangingclimate)
• Studiestodevelopourunderstandingofcurrentclimatevariability
• Studiesthatlinkscientificandlocalknowledgetoinformwatermanagementdecisions
• Rearchanddevelopmentinirrigationtechnology
Theinformationinthisprofilecanbefoundinthe“Agriculture”sectionofCanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.104.
MapshowingtheagriculturalextentofCanada.Source:CanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.104.
Stakeholder Profile 4: Mining Association of Canada OverviewMiningcontributestotheeconomiesofallprovincesandterritories,insmallcommunitiesandlargecities.Thatsaid,thiseconomiccontributionfluctuates,dependingonthenumberofminesoperatingandthevalueofthecommodityproduced.TheCanadianminingsectoremployspeopleinmineralextraction,insmelting,infabrication,andinmanufacturing.AccordingtotheMiningAssociationofCanada,theindustryplanstoinvestheavilyinprojectsoverthenextfewyears;thismaybeanopportunitytomakeclimatechangeadaptationpartofminingactivitieslikemineralexploration,mineconstruction,operations,transportation,andmineclosure.ImpactsofclimatechangeClimatechangeaffectsallstagesintheminingcycle,includingplanning,currentandfutureoperations,andclosingmines.Studieshaveidentifiedseveralaspectsofminingoperationsthatarecurrentlyaffectedbychangingclimaticconditions,including:a)builtinfrastructure;b)transportationinfrastructure;c)extractionandprocessing;andd)dailyoperations.
• Extremeclimateevents(e.g.,torrentialrains)havealreadyexceededtheabilityofsomeminestooperateastheyweredesignedto.
• WarmerwintershaverenderedseasonaliceroadsintheNorthwestTerritorieslessreliablethaninthepast.
• Warm,dryconditionsincreasedustemissions,requiringmineoperatorstoemploydustcontrolmeasureslikewatersprayingandcoveredstorageareas.
• Dailyoperationsatminesitesaresensitivetoextremeweatherconditions,includingintenserainandsnowfall,flooding,drought,changingiceconditions,extremecold,andforestfires—allofwhichcanreduceoperationalcapacity.
Possibleoutcomes• ReductionsinArcticseaicecouldleadtonewopportunitiesforminingexplorationand
developmentintheNorth,relatedinparttolowershippingcosts.
• Decreasedviabilityofwinterroadscouldaffectaccesstomanynorthernminesites.
• Increasedprecipitationassociatedwithclimatechangeinsomeareacouldbenefitsomemineralsminingoperationsbyhelpingtocontroldustemissions.
• Toomuchprecipitationimpedesthedryingofminedmaterials,whichthenrequiresmoreenergy,resultinginhighercosts.
ExistingresearchThemajorityofavailableresearchonclimatechangeimpactsandadaptationintheminingsectorfocusesonnorthernregions,onissuesincludingthefollowing:
• Permafrostintegrity• Wintertransportationnetworks• Watermanagement• ThepotentialforArcticseawaysasseaicemelts
ResearchneedsMoreresearchisneededonclimatechangeimpactsandadaptationwithregardtominingoperationsinsouthernCanada.
• Studiesareneededonabandonedmininginfrastructurethatwasnotdesignedforthefullrangeofchangingclimaticconditions.Someofthesesitescouldposeseriousriskstotheenvironmentandthehealthofsurroundingcommunities.
• Decision-makersresponsiblefordesigning,building,maintaining,andretiringmininginfrastructureneedabetterunderstandingofthelikelyimpactsoffutureclimatechangesatminesites;andhowengineeringtechniquescanbeadoptedtomanagethesechanges.Availableclimatescenariosarenotadequatetohelpdecision-makingbymineoperators.
Theinformationinthisprofilecanbefoundinthe“Mining”sectionofCanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.76.
Value(millionsofdollars)ofmineralproductionbyprovinceandterritory,2000and2010.Source:CanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.77.
Stakeholder Profile 5: Tourism Industry Association of Canada OverviewTheWorldTravelandTourismCouncilforecastssteadygrowthinCanada’stourismsectorbetween2012and2022(anaverageof2.9percentperyear).Ourtourismindustryandourfederalandprovincialgovernmentsfeelthatmajortourismgrowthispossible,asinternationalarrivalsareprojectedtoincreaseto1.8billionby2030.Tourismiscloselylinkedtoweatherandthenaturalenvironment.Becauseofthis,climatechangeisanticipatedtohaveextensiveimpactsonthesustainabilityandcompetitivenessoftourismdestinationsandmajortourismmarketsegmentsaroundtheworld.RecentrankingsoftheimpactsofclimatechangeontourismworldwidehaveconsistentlyidentifiedCanadaasacountrywiththepotentialtoimproveitscompetitivepositionasaninternationaldestinationWhiletourismisanimportanteconomicdriverineveryregionofCanada,ithasevengreaterimportanceforsmallcommunitieslikeparkgatewaycommunities,“cottaging”districts,andmanyotherdestinations.Itrepresentsakeyeconomicrevitalizationstrategywheretraditionalresource-basedeconomieshavedeclined.ImpactsofclimatechangeAlonger“summer”tourismseason,andreduced“sunshinedestination”travelinwinterwouldbenefittheCanadiantourismsector.
• Parksystems:NationalandprovincialparksareamongCanada’smostrenownedtourismattractions.Withclimatechange,visitstotheseparkscouldincreaseacrossthecountry.Ifcurrentdemandpatternsremain,increaseswillbegreatestinAtlanticCanada,Ontario,andQuebec.
• Warm-weatherrecreation:Witheffectiveadaptation,majorwarm-weathertourismmarketsinCanadacouldbenefitfromprojectedclimatechange.Theprojectionoflongergolfseasonscouldreasonablybeextendedtothingslikewaterparks,themeparks,zoos,boating,fishing,andbeachrecreation.
• Winterrecreation:Adegradedandshortenedwintertourismseason,ontheotherhand,representsarisktotourisminmanypartsofCanada.Theskiindustrywilldependmoreonsnowmaking,andsnowmobilingcouldbelargelydecreasedinthefuture.
• Nature-basedtourism:InCanada’snorth,changingiceconditionsarelengtheningtheArcticcruiseseasonandallowingaccesstopreviouslyinaccessiblelocations.ThepolarbeartourismmarketinChurchill,Manitoba,willbethreatenedoverthenext20yearsbydecliningsea-iceconditionsonHudsonBay.Changesinbiodiversityandwildlifereproductionwilllikelyimpactsportfishing(e.g.,increasedrecreationalfishinginnorthernOntarioduetoincreasedwalleyeproductivity)andhunting(e.g.,moosehuntingwillshiftnorthward).
• “Lastchancetourism”:Climate-inducedenvironmentalchangehasgivenrisetothisnewmarket,wheretouristsvisitadestinationoranattractionbeforeitislosttoclimatechange.
Possibleoutcomes• Thetourismindustryappearstobewellpositionedtobenefitfromclimatechangeoverthe
shortterm.
• AlongercruisingseasoninArcticCanadacouldbenefitlocalresidentsthroughincreasedseasonalemployment.IncreasedtourismcouldalsogeneratemoreinterestinInuitart,cultureandtraditions.
• Changesinthefrequencyandmagnitudeofextremeevents(windstorms,floods,forestfires,etc.)willposeachallengetoparkagenciesintermsofinfrastructuredamage,visitorsafety,andbusinessinterruptions.
• Maintainingwaterqualitywillbechallenging(swimmingareas)andincreasedirrigation(golfcoursesforexample)willbedifficultinregionswithlimitedordecliningwaterresources.
CurrentresearchTherearealotofstudiesontheeffectsofclimatechangeonthetourismsector.TourismoperatorshaveimplementedawiderangeofadaptationstoallowthemtooperateineveryclimaticzoneinCanada.Butthesestrategieshavebeenalmostexclusivelytomanagetheimpactsofcurrentclimatechanges.Researchneeds
• Studiesonthewhethercurrentadaptationstrategieswillbesustainableinthelongterm,bothfinanciallyandenvironmentally
• Studiesontourists’responsestoclimate-relatedchangesintourismlandscapesinordertocreateeffectiveadaptationstrategies
• Studiesonhowtourismwillbeaffectedbytheinteractionbetweenclimatechangeandfactorslikefuelpricesandtransportationcosts,borderrestrictions,currencyfluctuations,internationalreputation,demographicandmarkettrends,etc.
Theinformationinthisprofilecanbefoundinthe“Industry”sectionofCanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.135;andinChapter5ofCanada’sMarineCoastsinaChangingClimate,p.181.EconomiccontributionoftourisminCanadiancoastalprovincesandterritories.Source:Canada’sMarineCoastsinaChangingClimate,p.79.(AdaptedfromTourismIndustryAssociationofCanada,2012.)
Stakeholder Profile 6: Canadian Construction Association OverviewTheresidentialconstructionindustryinvolvesbothnewhousesandrenovations.Thesectoraccountsforapproximately6percentofCanada’sgrossdomesticproduct.Growthisdrivenbylowlevelsofunemployment,lowinterestrates,andimmigration.TheCanadianHomeBuilder’sAssociationexpectsnewhomestartstobesteadyoverthenextfewyears,buttoincreaseinresponsetoimmigrationanddemographicpressures.Whennewresidentialhomesarebuilt,thereisanassumptionthattheclimatewillremainstatic.Butextremeweatherlinkedwithclimatechangecaneasilyexceedthedesignthresholdofthesestructuresandcausedamage.ThelatestIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangereportonextremeweatherconcludesthat“smallincreasesinclimateextremesabovethresholdsorregionalinfrastructuretippingpointshavethepotentialtoresultinlargeincreasesindamagestoallformsofexistinginfrastructurenationallyandtoincreasedisasterrisks.”ImpactsofclimatechangeAnalysisoftheimpactofclimatechangeonthehousingsectorlargelyfocusesontheriskslinkedwithdirectclimateimpacts,specificallyanincreaseinpropertydamagecausedbymoreintenseandfrequentextremeweather:
• Increaseinwaterdamagecausedbysewerbackupsandbasementfloodingafterintenserainfall• Increaseinbuildingdamagecausedbyincreaseinwindspeed• Increaseintheweatheringprocesscausedbygradualincreasesintemperatureand
precipitation
PossibleoutcomesPotentialindirectimpactsfromclimatechangeonresidentialhousingcouldincludethefollowing:
• Changesintheattitudesofhomebuyers(e.g.,increaseddemandforresilienthousing)• Increasedregulatorypressure(e.g.,changestobuildingcodes)• Increasedfinancialliability(e.g.,morestringentlendingorinsuranceconditions)• Increasedcostsofbuildingahomeifnewtechnologiesordesignpracticesareincorporated
Theseindirectimpactscouldhelpcreatecommercialincentivesforhomebuilderstoimplementadaptationmeasures.Formoststakeholdersinthehousingsector,climatechangeadaptationisanewconcern.Mitigationmeasureslikeimprovingenergyefficiencyarestillthemainfocusofresearchandpolicy.Inordertopromoteclimatechangeadaptation,multiplestakeholdersincludinghomebuilders,regulators,consumers,andthefinancialservicessectorshouldsupporttheuseofanumberoftoolsandpractices:
• Buildingcodes:updatethesebasedonfutureweathertrends• Land-useplanning:buildhomesinareasprotectedfromthehazardsofextremeweatherevents
(e.g.,avoidfloodplains)• Retrofitsforexistinghomes:improvetheresiliencyofexistinghomestoextremeweather• Financingadaptation(homebuilders):expandconstructionbudgetsandwarrantyprogram
ExistingresearchExistingstudiesmakeadistinctionbetween“direct”climateimpacts,suchasextremeweather,and“indirect”impacts,suchaschangesinconsumerdemands.Mostresearchtodatefocusesondirectimpacts,withonlylimitedinformationavailableonindirectimpacts.
Researchneeds• Researchonindirectimpactsofclimatechange• Moreinformationforhomebuildersaboutthelocalclimatechangeriskssotheyaremotivated
toimplementadaptiveactions• Researchonthecostsandbenefitsofretrofitsandbuildingcodechanges• Researchonthecostsandbenefitsofchangingdesignstoimproveresiliencetoclimaterisks• Capacitytodevelopappropriateadaptationsolutions,suchasnewdesigntechniquesand
technologies• Collaborationbetweenbuildingscientists,theinsuranceindustry,andhomebuilders
Theinformationinthisprofilecanbefoundinthe“ResidentialConstruction”sectionofCanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.149.
Externalstakeholders’roleinpromotingadaptationinresidentialhousingmarket.Source:CanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.150.
Stakeholder Profile 7: Insurance Bureau of Canada OverviewInsurancecompanieshavetheninth-largestincomeofCanada’s22industries(StatisticsCanada,2012a).Insuranceincludesanumberofdifferentsub-sectorsincludinglifeinsurance,healthinsurance,andpropertyinsurance.Someinsurancesectors,suchaslifeinsurance,donotcurrentlyappearsensitivetovariationintheweather.However,propertyinsurance,andtoalesserextentautoinsurance,experiencesignificantswingsincostsandearningswithweathervariation.Infact,weatherdamageclaimshaverecentlyemergedasthelargestexpenseforpropertyinsurancecompaniesinCanada.DamagetohomesandbusinessescausedbysevereweatherhasbeenincreasingforseveraldecadesinCanadaandelsewherearoundtheglobe(in2011,theCanadianinsuranceindustrypaidoutarecord$1.7billionforpropertydamageclaimslinkedtoweatherevents).Infact,lossanddamageduetointenserainfall,hurricanes,tornadoes,wildfires,andwinterstormshaverecentlygrowntosurpassfireandtheft.Theincreaseprimarilyinvolvesbasementflooddamageclaims.ImpactsofclimatechangeClimatechangeandthepotentialincreaseinthefrequencyofsevereweatherhaveemergedasasignificantpriorityforpropertyinsurers.
• IntenseraincanoverwhelmCanada’sagingurbansewersystemsandcausedamagestohomesandbusinesses.
• WarmingmayincreasetheseverityofAtlantichurricanes,resultinginmoreclaimsfordamagefromwindandheavyrain.
• Anincreaseintheseverityofsummerstorms(e.g.,tornadoes,hailstorms,lightningevents)couldincreasedamagesandlosses.
• Morelargewildfireswouldaddtotheriskoffiredamageincommunitiesontheedgeofforestland.
Possibleoutcomes• Insurerscoulduseadaptiveactions(e.g.,adjustingwhattheycover,raisingprices)toprotect
themselvesagainstcostscausedbyextremeweather.• Insurancepriceincreasescouldmakeratesunaffordable,andregulatoryinterventionsmayforce
reductions.• Insurerscouldofferlowerratestoindustriesandpropertyownerswhoinvestinclimatechange
adaptation.• Adaptivemeasurescouldresultfromcollaborationbetweeninsurersandstakeholderswith
influenceoverinfrastructureandbuildingcodes.ExistingresearchCanadianandinternationalstudiesondevelopingadaptiveactions,likeadjustmentstocoverageandpriceincreases,areavailablefortheinsurancesector.
Researchneeds• Estimatesofthecontributionofclimatechangetothecostofclaimsthathavebeenpaidby
insurersinCanada
• Studiesonhowinsurerscouldpartnerwithuniversities,governments,homebuilders,andconsumerstopromoteadaptiveactions
• Developmentofdemonstrationhomeswithfeaturesthatgobeyondbuildingcodestopreventdamagefromhurricanesandintenserainfall
Theinformationinthisprofilecanbefoundinthe“Industry”sectionofCanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.135.
InsuredlossesfromextremeweathereventsinCanada.Source:CanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.143.
Stakeholder Profile 8: Canadian Association of Importers and Exporters OverviewManufacturingisCanada’slargestandmostdiverseindustrialsector.Severaltensofthousandsofcompaniesparticipateinthesector,includinglargeinternationalcompaniesandmanymid-sizeandsmallerones.Thissectorhasexperiencedsignificantchallengesinrecentyearsduetotheglobaleconomiccrisis,thelowCanadiandollar,andweaknessinexportmarkets.Mostmanufacturershaveexperiencedsomedisruptionsfromsevereweatherevents,suchasdelaysinsecuringcriticalsupplies,challengesinmakingdeliveriesontime,anddisruptionsfrompowerfailures.ImpactsofclimatechangeClimatechangecanhavearangeofphysicalimpactsonthemanufacturingsector.Changesintheenvironmentcanlimittheavailabilityofcertainkeymanufacturinginputs,suchaswaterortimber,therebyincreasingcostsformanufacturers.
• Forestfires,pests,diseases,andchanginggrowthpatternscoulddecreaseforestproductivity,whichinturncouldincreasecostsformanufacturingproducts(e.g.,woodproductsforconstruction,pulpandpaper).
• Watershortagesareariskforindustrialprocessesthatusewaterforcooling,irrigation,cleaning,orrefiningrawmaterials.
• Highertemperaturesandhumiditycandecreaseworkers’productivityandincreasehealthrisks.
• Extremeweathercanalsodisruptoperationsbydamaginginfrastructureandinterruptingsupplychains.Forexample,anAtlantichurricanecoulddisruptvitaltransportationofmaterialsandshutdownsupplierplantsinsouthernOntario.
PossibleoutcomesChangesinconsumerdemandsandpreferences—duetoclimatechangeitselfaswellasincreasingenvironmentalawareness—presentindirectopportunitiesandrisksforseveralareasofmanufacturing.
• Milderwintersandwarmersummersmayincreasethedemandforcertainconsumerproductsanddecreaseitforothers.
• Areasofmanufacturingthataregreenhouse-gas-intensivecouldfacerisksasconsumersstartbuyingproductsthataremoreenergy-efficient.
ExistingresearchExistingstudiesmakeadistinctionbetween“direct”climateimpacts,suchasextremeweather,and“indirect”impacts,suchaschangesinconsumerdemand.Mostresearchtodatefocusesondirectimpacts.AndstudiesonclimatechangeandtheCanadianmanufacturingsectoralmostexclusivelyaddressmitigationactions(actionstoreduceenergyuseortoreducegreenhousegasemissions).
Researchneeds• Studiesthatdocumentindirectclimateimpacts(e.g.,changesinconsumerdemand)• Studiesthatdocumentclimatechangeimpacts,risks,andopportunities• Studiesonthecostsandbenefitsofadaptationasabusinessstrategy(e.g.,buyinginsuranceto
coverlossesanddamage,environmentalmanagementatmanufacturingsitestodealwithwaterissuesorweatherextremes,usingseveralsuppliersorhavingseparateproductionfacilitiestoreducedisruptioninthesupplychain,producingsurplusesofthosegoodsthatfrequentlygetdisrupted)
• Accuratecost-benefitanalysisofusingadaptationstrategiestoprotectsupplychainswhen,forexample,extremeweathereventsdisrupttransportationofmaterials
Theinformationinthisprofilecanbefoundinthe“Industry”sectionofCanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.135.
Stakeholder Profile 9: Biodiversity OverviewCanadaishometomajorportionsoftheworld’spolarregionsandtundra,borealandtemperateforests,grasslands,andaquaticecosystems.ThelatterincludetheGreatLakesaswellasterritorialwatersinthePacific,Arctic,andAtlanticoceans.Theseecosystemscontainabout10percentoftheworld’sforestsand20percentoftheworld’sfreshwater.Theyprovidenichespaceformorethan70,000speciesofmammals,birds,reptiles,amphibians,fish,invertebrates,plants,andotherorganisms.Biodiversitymeansthevarietyofspeciesandecosystems,andtheecologicalprocessestheyarepartof.Itcontributestocleanerairandwater,climateregulation,carbonstorage,pollination,andfloodregulation.Humansbenefitfrombiodiversityas,forexample,asourceoffood,fibre,materialsforclothing,timber,andrecreationalopportunities.Biodiversityisvitaltoeconomicsectorssuchasagricultureandtourism.Anditisvitalduringperiodsofrapidenvironmentalchange.ImpactsofclimatechangeEvidencethatCanada’sbiodiversityisunderincreasingpressurefromclimatechangecontinuestogrow.Someimpactsofclimatechangearealreadyevident.
• ImpactsonArcticspecieswillinvolvehabitatloss,competitionfromspeciesmigratingnorthward,andthearrivalofnewdiseasesandparasitesfromthesouth.
• Impactsonspeciesdistribution,abundance,physiology,andlifecycletimingwillalterecologicalrelationshipsandhabitats.
• Coastalandestuaryecosystemsareatriskfromerosion,whichcouldeliminatehabitatforsomespecies.
• Drierconditionsinprairieecosystemswilllikelydecreaseproductivityinnaturalgrasslands.• Astheclimatewarms,habitatscouldcontractorbecomeincreasinglyfragmented.• Climatechangeimpactsonwaterquantityandqualityareaconcernforlakesandriversacross
Canada.• InHudsonBay,thenumbersanddistributionofsealsandpolarbearscorrelatewithashorter
seaiceseasonandhigherwatertemperatures.Thesameistrueforanumberoffishspecies.• Increasesinwildfires,insectoutbreaks,anddroughtswillresultinlossofold-growthforests.• Innorthernandalpineregions,therapidmeltingofglacierswillchangeriverandstreamflows.
Thiswillaffectdownstreamaquaticecosystems,aswellaswatersuppliesformanytownsandcities.
PossibleoutcomesCurrentevidenceindicatesthattherangeformanyspecieswilllikelyshiftnorthwardinresponsetowarmingtemperatures.Thiswouldhavemajorimplicationsforpeoplewhorelyonthecurrentconfigurationofecosystems.
• ManybirdspeciesthatcurrentlybreedinthenortheasternUnitedStatesarelikelytomovenorthwardintoCanada,increasingbirdspeciesrichnessinEasternCanada.
• ClimatechangemayincreasebiodiversityinsouthernQuebecduringthiscenturyasspeciesmovenorthward.
• Thesouthernedgeofspeciesrangeislikelytocontractinresponsetoshiftingclimate.• TheWestNilevirusandLymediseaseinhumanscouldexpandtheirdistributionswithchanging
climate.
ExistingresearchMostworktodatehasfocusedontheeffectsofclimatechangeonindividualspecies.Asfortheeffectsofclimatechangeonbiodiversity,therehasbeenarangeofadaptationrecommendationsaimedatmaintainingorrestoringbiodiversity.Theseincludeimprovedinstitutionalcoordination(e.g.,government,universities,industry,andenvironmentalorganizations),inclusionofspatialandtemporal(setintime)perspectives,andintegratedcoordinationofclimatechangescenariosintoplanningandactionrelatedtoecosystemmanagement.Researchneeds
• Studiesoftheeffectsofclimatechangeonspeciespatternsandresponseofspeciesgroups• Studiesofecologicalrelationships,whichwillhelpusunderstandtheimpactsofclimatechange
onhowecosystemsfunction• Studiesoftheinfluenceofotherfactors,suchascompetitionandpredation,onpopulation
distributionandabundance• Studiesoftheeffectoflocalizedmicroclimatesandextinctionrisks
Theinformationinthisprofilecanbefoundinthe“Biodiversity”sectionofCanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.159.
Projectedchangefromthepresentto2071–2100inthedistributionsofBritishColumbiaecologicalzones,withbunchgrasscommunitiesandponderosapineforestsbecomingmorecommonthantoday,whilealpinetundramaydisappear.Source:CanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.167.
Stakeholder Profile 10: Transportation Association of Canada OverviewTransportationservicesaccountfor4.2percentofCanada’sgrossdomesticproduct.Dependabletransportationnetworksarecriticaltoawiderangeofeconomicandsocialsectors.Transportisverysensitivetoclimate,andtherearemanyexamplesoftransportationdisruptionsrelatedtoweathereventsandseasonalconditions.Theclimatesensitivityoftransportationsystemsisreflectedindesignandconstructionstandards,spending,andmobilityandsafetyoutcomes.Well-maintainedinfrastructure(e.g.,roads,railways,bridges)ismoreresilienttoachangingclimate.Thisisespeciallytruewhenitcomestogradualchangesintemperatureandprecipitationpatterns:inmanycases,thesecanbeaddressedthroughregularmaintenanceandnormalupgradecyclesoradjustmentstothewayasystemisoperatedormaintained.Infrastructureisdesignedtoprovideservicesoveritslifetime—anywherefrom10to100years—andmustbeadaptedovertimetomeetchangingcircumstances(e.g.,changesintechnology,society,andbusiness).ImpactsofclimatechangeImpactsofclimatechangeareassociatedwithextremeweatherevents(e.g.,heatwaves,heavyrainfall)aswellasmoregradualchanges(e.g.,permafrostthaw,highertemperatures,sea-levelrise,anddecliningwaterlevelsinfreshwatersystems).Climatechangepresentsarangeofchallengesforinfrastructuredesign,construction,operation,andmaintenance.ItisrecognizedasafactorthatneedstobeconsideredasCanadastrivestomaintainandimproveexistinginfrastructure.
• Disruptionfromextremeevents(e.g.,floods,fire,storms)isthemainclimateconcernwithrespecttotransportation.
• Morefrequentandlongerheatwavescouldresultinpavementsoftening,railbuckling,andcargooverheating.
• Railwaysystemscouldbeimpactedbyflooding,erosion,landslides,andfires.• Thenorthernregionsarevulnerabletochangingclimateinanumberofways.Theyrelyona
combinationoficeroads,bargetransport,airservices,andlimitedrailaccessforcommercialactivitiesandcommunitysupply.
• Incoastalcommunities,transportinfrastructureisvulnerabletotheintensityandfrequencyofstormevents,whichcancausestorm-surgefloodingandsubmergence.
• WarmertemperaturescouldmeanlowerwaterlevelsintheGreatLakessystem,affectingtheGreatLakes–St.LawrenceSeaway,amajorinternationalshippingroute.
Possibleoutcomes
• Freezingrainevents—aswellassequenceslikerainonfreezingrain,orrainonsnow—arelikelytoincreaseinsouth-centralCanadaandwillposeriskstotransportation.
• Inlightofthewarmingtrend,therewillbeaneedtoreconsiderroaddesignandtousedifferentmaterials,especiallyintruckingcorridors.
• ForeachcentimetredecreaseinwaterlevelintheGreatLakes–St.LawrenceSeaway,shipcapacitywoulddecreasebysixcontainers,or60tons(TransportsQuébec,2012).
ExistingresearchTheworkofthePublicInfrastructureEngineeringVulnerabilityCommittee(PIEVC)hasbroadenedourunderstandingofhowtoadaptCanada’sinfrastructuretoclimatechange.UsingthePIEVC’srisk-basedassessmentprotocol,engineersandplannerscanviewandaddressclimatechangeasonefactoramongmanythataffectssystemresiliency—andplanaccordingly.Researchneeds
• Furtherassessmentofcurrentandfutureclimateriskstoinfrastructuresystemsisrequired.Thiswouldtheninformadjustmentstodesigncodesandstandardstoaddressfutureclimate.
Theinformationinthisprofilecanbefoundinthe“TransportationInfrastructure”sectionofCanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.233.Summary Date ReferenceWinterroadsinManitobaturnintoquagmires 3-Jan-12 CTVNews(2012)
Flightscancelledduetolowvisibilityandfog 17-Jan-12 PtashnickandHayes(2012)
Rainfall-inducedundergroundslidecreatessinkhole200mwidex5mdeeponHwy83inManitoba
3-Jul-12 CBCNews(2012c)
Icebuild-upinE.Arcticdamagesshipandcausesdelayinunloadingsealifts
29-Jul-12 CBCNews(2012d).
Wawainastateofemergencyduetorunofffromrain.Totaldamage>$10milliondollars
27-Oct-12 MetroNews(2012)
HurricaneSandycausesflightcancellationsinAtlanticCanada 29-Oct-12 TheTelegram(2012)
TheTrans-CanadaHwyinNewfoundlandclosedduetodamagefromalandslide
19-Nov-12
CBCNews(2012e)
SailingsfromVancouverIslandcancelledduetowinds,waveheightandseaconditions
19-Dec-12
Lavoie(2013)
RecordsnowfallaffectstransportinsouthernQuebec 27-Dec-12
RadioCanada(2012)
VIARailusesthe"snowfighter"toclearthetraintracksduringsnowstorms
24-Jan-13 Pinsonneault(2013)
RoadsclosedinNorthwesternOntarioasdriftingandblowingsnowimpactedhighwaysstillaffectedbyfreezingrain
30-Jan-13 CBCNews(2013a).
Roadandmarinetraveldelayedbywinterweather 18-Feb-13
NationalPost(2013a)
BargesupplytowesternArcticinterruptedbyice 3-Sep-13 CBCNews(2013c)
Examplesofweather-transportationnewsstoriesfrom2012–2013.Source:CanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.244.
Stakeholder Profile 11: Health and Social Well-Being OverviewClimatechangeposessignificantriskstohumanhealthandwell-being,withimpactsfromextremeweathereventsandnaturalhazards;fromairqualityandstratosphericozonedepletion;andfromwater-,food-,vector-,androdent-bornediseases.Inrecentyears,greatereffortshavebeenmadetoprepareforthesehealthimpactsbypublichealthofficials,emergencymanagementofficials,andnon-governmentalorganizations.AlthoughallCanadiansareatriskfromthehealthimpactsofclimatechange,somegroupshavebeenidentifiedasbeingmorevulnerable.Theseincludeseniors,childrenandinfants,thesociallyandeconomicallydisadvantaged,thosewithchronicdiseasesandcompromisedimmunesystems,aboriginalpeople,andresidentsofnorthernandremotecommunities.ImpactsofclimatechangeInthepast10years,strongerevidencehasemergedthatawiderangeofclimate-relatedimpactsareofpublic-healthconcerninCanada.1. Airquality
• Increasedairpollution,i.e.,higherlevelsofground-levelozoneandairborneparticulatematter,includingsmokeandparticulatesfromwildfires
• Increasedproductionofpollensandsporesbyplants2. Foodandwaterquality
• Increasedcontaminationofdrinkingwaterandrecreationalwaterbyrunofffromheavyrainfall• Changesinmarineenvironmentsthatresultinalgalbloomsandhigherlevelsoftoxinsinfishandshellfish
• Behaviouralchangesduetowarmertemperaturesresultinginanincreasedriskoffood-andwater-borneinfections(e.g.,throughlongerbarbecueandswimmingseasons)
3. Infectiousdiseasestransmittedbyinsects,ticks,androdents• Changesinthebiologyandecologyofvariousdisease-carryinginsects,ticks,androdents(includinggeographicaldistribution)
• Fastermaturationforthepathogenscarriedbyinsectsandticks• Longerdiseasetransmissionseason
4. Stratosphericozonedepletion• Withawarmerclimate,increasedhumanexposuretoultravioletradiationduetobehaviouralchanges
Possibleoutcomes• Heat-relatedillnessesanddeaths• Possiblechangedpatternsofillnessanddeathduetocolderconditionsinsomeregions• Increasedriskofcardiovasculardiseases(e.g.,heartattacks,ischemicheartdisease)• Respiratorydisorders;irritationofeyes,noseandthroat;andshortnessofbreath• Exacerbationofallergies• Food-andwater-borneillnessesandotherdiarrhealandintestinaldiseases• Possibleemergenceofnewinfectiousdiseases• Morecasesofsunburns,skincancers,cataracts,andeyedamage
• Variousimmunedisorders• Healthandmental-healthimpactsinaboriginalandnortherncommunitiesifenvironmental
changesaffecttheirlivelihood,relationshipwiththeland,andculture
ExistingresearchCanadaisaheadofmanydevelopedcountriesineffortstoprotecthealthfromclimatechange,accordingtoacomparisonlistedintheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange.Canadaisparticularlystrongonresearchintotheimpactsofclimatechangeandadaptationoptionsinthehealthsector,thecomparisonshows.Itisalsooneofthefewcountriestorecognizetheparticularvulnerabilitiesofindigenousgroupsanddevelopspecificadaptationoptions.Publichealthofficialsandresearchersarefocusingonsomenewadaptationareasoffocus:
• Vulnerabilityassessmentsofhigh-riskpopulations• Actionstoaddresspsychosocialimpactsofclimatehazards,andothersecondaryhealtheffects• Newadaptivetechnologiesthatindividualscanuse(e.g.,devicesincarstowarnofwaterdepth,
landslideearly-detectionsystems)• Planningmeasuresforhealth-carefacilitiestohelpthemmanageemergencies• Preventativemeasures,likegreenroofstoreducetheurbanheatisland
Researchneeds• Researchonhowdampnessandtemperatureaffectmaterialsinbuildingsandthusindoorair
quality• Researchontheimpactsofclimatechangeonfoodandwatersecurityinthevariousregionsof
Canada• Researchonthecapacityandpreparednessofwaterutilitiestoadapttoclimatechange• Basicandappliedresearchstudieswithrespecttodiseasesurveillance,prevention,andcontrol• Longitudinalstudiesacrossdifferentdemographicgroups(children,elderly,urban,rural,
outdoorworkers)toidentifyhealthimpactsfromslow-developinghazards(e.g.,drought)andthecumulativeeffectsofclimatechange(e.g.,extremeheat,drought,wildfires)
p.208CanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation