Virginia, Sea Level Rise, and Marketing Lessons Learned
Skip StilesState Environmental Leaders Conference
November 20, 2015
VIRGINIA’S SEA LEVEL RISE REALITY
VA Climate Commission
2008
Boon/Ezer 2012
Planning recommendation
Impact on Wetlands
What We Want
What Everyone Else Wants
What Everyone Else Wants
What We Need to Change
An All to Familiar Situation
WHAT WE WERE “SELLING”
Save Virginia’s Wetlands From Climate Change
What Do People Want to Talk About?
We Listened to THEM
What They Want to Talk About
Change the Conversation
Make it PersonalWhat Will Sea Level Rise Do in My Children’s/Grandchildren’s Life?
Make it Local, Make it RealWhat Is Sea Level Rise Already Doing to my Community/To Me?* How Many Times Have I Had to Change My Commute in the Last Year?
* Is it Just My Imagination or Are the Storms Getting Worse?
“Life Cycle Costing” or “Total Ownership Cost”What Will Sea Level Rise Cost Me Over my Lifetime/Over my Business Horizon/During the time I Own My House?
Use Local Examples of Change
Fire Ant infestations have closed parks in SE Virginia, starting in 2011.
Before then, Fire Ants could not survive the winters this far north.
Use Local Examples of Change
4’ Erosion/yr
Storm Surges in Hampton Roads
Sewells Point Tide Gauge Record
DATE STORM TYPE/NAME ABOVE MHHWAugust 23, 1933 Hurricane 5.26 feetSeptember 18,2003 Hurricane Isabel 5.13 feetNovember 12, 2009 Veterans Day Nor’easter 4.99 feetAugust 28, 2011 Hurricane Irene 4.76 feetMarch 7, 1962 Ash Wednesday Storm 4.46 feetOctober 29, 2012 Hurricane Sandy 4.09 feetSeptember 18, 1936 Hurricane 3.96 feetNovember 22, 2006 Thanksgiving Nor’easter 3.87 feetFebruary 5, 1998 Twin Nor’easter (#2) 3.82 feetOctober 6, 2006 Columbus Day Nor’easter 3.76 feetOctober 4. 2015 Nor’easter 3.72 feetApril 27, 1978 Nor’easter 3.65 feetApril 11, 1956 Nor’easter 3.56 feetSeptember 16, 1933 Hurricane 3.36 feetJanuary 28, 1998 Twin Nor’easter (#1) 3.28 feetSeptember 16, 1999 Hurricane Floyd 3.21 feet
Storm Surges in Hampton Roads
Sewells Point Tide Gauge Record
DATE STORM TYPE/NAME ABOVE MHHWAugust 23, 1933 Hurricane 5.26 feetSeptember 18,2003 Hurricane Isabel 5.13 feetNovember 12, 2009 Veterans Day Nor’easter 4.99 feetAugust 28, 2011 Hurricane Irene 4.76 feetMarch 7, 1962 Ash Wednesday Storm 4.46 feetOctober 29, 2012 Hurricane Sandy 4.09 feetSeptember 18, 1936 Hurricane 3.96 feetNovember 22, 2006 Thanksgiving Nor’easter 3.87 feetFebruary 5, 1998 Twin Nor’easter (#2) 3.82 feetOctober 6, 2006 Columbus Day Nor’easter 3.76 feetOctober 4. 2015 Nor’easter 3.72 feetApril 27, 1978 Nor’easter 3.65 feetApril 11, 1956 Nor’easter 3.56 feetSeptember 16, 1933 Hurricane 3.36 feetJanuary 28, 1998 Twin Nor’easter (#1) 3.28 feetSeptember 16, 1999 Hurricane Floyd 3.21 feet
- 1.45 feet in 1915
Future Storm Surges in Hampton Roads
Sewells Point Tide Gauge Record
DATE STORM TYPE/NAME ABOVE MHHWAugust 23, 1933 Hurricane 5.26 feetSeptember 18,2003 Hurricane Isabel 5.13 feetNovember 12, 2009 Veterans Day Nor’easter 4.99 feetAugust 28, 2011 Hurricane Irene 4.76 feetMarch 7, 1962 Ash Wednesday Storm 4.46 feetOctober 29, 2012 Hurricane Sandy 4.09 feetSeptember 18, 1936 Hurricane 3.96 feetNovember 22, 2006 Thanksgiving Nor’easter 3.87 feetFebruary 5, 1998 Twin Nor’easter (#2) 3.82 feetOctober 6, 2006 Columbus Day Nor’easter 3.76 feetOctober 4. 2015 Nor’easter 3.72 feetApril 27, 1978 Nor’easter 3.65 feetApril 11, 1956 Nor’easter 3.56 feetSeptember 16, 1933 Hurricane 3.36 feetJanuary 28, 1998 Twin Nor’easter (#1) 3.28 feetSeptember 16, 1999 Hurricane Floyd 3.21 feet
+1.5 feet by 2060
For Virginia Source of Change Not An Issue
Just Looking At Wetlands Impacts Limits Options
Broader Focus = More Options & More Partners
New Message
Protect Your Community from Flooding Impacts and Expenses
We Still Faced The Challenge of Asymmetry
IN FIFTY YEARS, WE WILL HAVE AVOIDED COSTS
FROM SEA LEVEL RISE
FOREGO FINANCIAL GAIN/PROPERTY TAX
ON SHORELINE PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT
TODAYPoli
cy/M
arketi
ng Cha
llenge
Policy
/Mark
eting C
halle
nge
Time to Impact
Scal
e of
Impa
ct
Week Month Year Decade Century
Region
Nation
State/Province
Community
Individual
Homeowners Insurance ChangesAllstate's 'Good Hands' Wave 'Bye Bye' CHICAGO, Dec. 21, 2006
(AP) Wary of the rising risk of hurricanes, Allstate Corp. has added coastal regions of North and South Carolina, Alabama, Maryland and Virginia to the growing list of areas nationwide where it is cutting back homeowners insurance coverage.
Sea Change In Insurers' Coastal Coverage Many Firms Opt to End Or Limit New Policies
By Sandra Fleishman Special to The Washington Post Saturday, December 30, 2006; F01
Major insurance companies are throwing cold water on America's new passion for living near the ocean and by the bay.
Recently, the biggest companies in the homeowners insurance business announced that they will stop writing new policies in some coastal areas of the mid-Atlantic and will otherwise limit coverage there. They have already reduced their coverage in states more prone to hurricanes.
From the Baltimore Sun Insurers shrink from coastsLegislators here, elsewhere aim to help homeowners as industry fears growing riskBy Laura SmithermanSun reporter
February 18, 2007 As insurance companies retreat from their coverage of coastal areas along the Eastern Seaboard, legislators in Annapolis and other state capitals are stepping in to protect homeowners faced with fewer and fewer options.
Concerns brought up about possibleimpending insurance crisisby Sherry Hamilton
Speaking at the May 22meeting of the MathewsBoard of Supervisors,Gwynn’s Island residentJudy Rowe warned of animpending insurance crisisin the county.
An Opening for Adaptation?
• Post-Katrina Lawsuits
• Recession
• Increased Storm Cycle in Mid-Atlantic
• More Sophisticated Underwriting, Geocoding, Personal Information
Flood Insurance Changes Pricing Risk Into Coastal Communities
NFIP Reforms will affect tidal localities:
•Phase out subsidies•Phase out grandfathering•Return to “actuarial soundness”•Study inclusion of Sea Level Rise in future rate maps
NFIP: Flood Insurance Reforms
Average Rate Increase = 20%
Maximum Rate Increase = 37%
The NFIP Community Rating System Saving Money and Shorelines
• Voluntary NFIP program offers discounts on flood insurance to reward good floodplain management within a community
• Various activities to improve floodplainmanagement/earn credit
• Open space, shoreline restoration, wetlands creation, etc. gain points/reduce flood insurance premiums!
FLOOD DAMAGE MITIGATION – NEED AND OPPORTUNITY
FLOOD DAMAGE MITIGATION – NEED AND OPPORTUNITY
9,200 Jobs!
Private Sector is Moving on the Issue
TAKE EXTRA FLOOD PROTECTION MEASURES AND CREATE MORE
OPEN SPACE IN FLOOD PLAINS TODAY
Closing The Time/Cost Gap
GET LOWER FLOOD INSURANCE RATES AND KEEP LOWER
MUNICIPAL BOND COSTS TODAY
Time to Impact
Scal
e of
Impa
ct
Week Month Year Decade Century
Region
Nation
State/Province
Community
Individual
RESILIENCY DESIGN – NEED AND OPPORTUNITY
$200 + million sought by Hampton Roads - HUD National Disaster Resiliency Competition – Oct, 2015 Submission
Who else is interested in paying for information on flooding?
WHAT WE CAN “SELL” AGAIN
Save Virginia’s Wetlands From Climate Change