The Arab springCauses & Effects
Dr. Akram KhaterNorth Carolina State University
June 2012
What is It?
A new generation seeking a better life, freedom and justice
Where is It?
Why We Missed It?Popular Culture and Arabs
Why We Missed It? – Part 2
US Foreign Policy: Between Radical Islamists and Brutal Allies
US ME Foreign Policy
Oil
Israel
Causes of the Uprisings
Demographics
Failure and de-legitimization of the State
Globalization
Demographics
Yem
en
Unite
d St
ates
Syria
Saud
i Ara
bia
Pale
stin
eIra
qIra
n
Fran
ce
Egyp
t
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Youth in the Middle East and North Africa make up, on average, 50% of the population
Educational Crisis
Overcrowded Classrooms
Egypt Syria Tunisia US Israel France0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Expenditure Per Student
Underfunded SchoolsUnderpaid Teachers
Yemen Jordan Lebanon Syria Egypt0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Salary in US Dollars
Unemployment
Algeria Bahrain Egypt Iran Palestine Saudi Arabia Syria0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Percentage of Unemployment for Youth 15-24
Male Unemployment
Female Unemployment
UN World Population Horizons: 2004 Census
“Hayt-iste,” or the Unemployed
Poverty and Social Malaise
Absence of Government Institutions
Lack of Infrastructure
Lack of Social Services and Green Spaces
Imagined as dysfunctional
Political Repression
Conflicting ChoicesIslamist Current
Neo-Liberalism
The Facebook Generation
Islamists: From moderate to militant
Neo-Liberalism
The Facebook Generation: Between Islamists and Elites
GlobalizationA literate youth population
Yemen Egypt Syria Iran Libya Bahrain0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
20001970
GlobalizationA connected youth population
Between 2000 and 2009 internet user growth was 5863.9%
Syria Egypt Yemen Iran Lebanon0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
GlobalizationTwitter, facebook are tools; human rights and democracy are their ideals
NGO and Civil Society
Immediate FutureRise of Islamists ruling elites
Secular Parties will gain strength as Islamists prove incapable of governance
Diverse attitude toward Shari’a
Attitudes toward women’s rights
TunisiaEgypt
Yemen
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Implications for US Policy
Beyond the binaries of Good and Bad Arab
New Rules of Engagement - limits of military power
Rapprochement of Rhetoric and ActionPalestine/Israel
Democracy and “Allies”
Beyond Oil