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The ASEAN Economic Community:State of Implementation andImplications for the Philippines
Jrn Dosch, 5 December 2014
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...
Cartoon: http://www.irrawaddy.org/articlefiles/14463-3_mar_cartoon.gif
Post 2015Vision
AEC2015
AFTA 1992
Preferential
TradeAgreement(PTA) 1977
ASEANIndustrialProjects(AIP) 1976
ASEAN IndustrialComplementationScheme (AIC) 1981
ASEAN
Trade inGoodsAgreement(ATIGA)2010
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The Vision & the Challenge
22.11.2014 2014 UNIVERSITT ROSTOCK 3
AEC:integratedeconomic
region
Single market
andproduction
base
Equitableeconomic
development
Integration
into the GlobalEconomy
Competitiveeconomic
region
The Trouble ofTerminology
A single or internalmarket consists of two ormore nations amongwhich goods, capital, andcurrencies can movefreely across borders
without tariffs or otherrestrictions.
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Is Intra-Regional Trade theBottom Line?
11/22/2014 5
http://www.imf.org/external/country/VNM/rr/2013/101113.pdf
http://www.adbi.org/files/2013.10.25.wp440.asean.economic.community.progress.challenges.pdf
2122
25.1 24.5 25.5 25.4 25 24.3 26
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1998 2000 2003 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Share of intra-regional trade in % of total ASEAN trade
Data compiled from ASEAN Statistics
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....Extra-Regional Trade LooksMore Impressive.
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012ASEAN imports from
China97443 112560 97605 128045 156622 204270
ASEAN Exports toChina
79429 89327 82887 114134 142764 195820
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000ASEAN-China Trade 2007-2012
Chartbased on data compiled from WTO Trade Statistics
Deutsche Bank Research (2013),
http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-
PROD/PROD0000000000315342.pdf
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Efficiency of Border Administration 2009 & 2014
*Data for Brunei (2009 and 2014), Laos and Myanmar (2009) were not availableThe higher the score, the more efficient and transparent is the respective border administrationChart based on data compiled from World Economic Forum: The Global Enabling Report 2009 and 2014
33.8 4.7 3.7
6.5
4.53.3
3.44.4 5.2 4.3
6.34.7
43.4 3.3
0
1
2
34
5
6
7
2009
2014
Customs: The (modest) Success Story
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Efficiency of import-exportprocedures, detailed indicators(2009 & 2014)
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Efficiency ofthe clearance
process
1-5 (best)
No. of days toimport
No. ofdocuments to
import
Cost toimport, US$
per container
No. of days toexport
No. ofdocuments to
export
Cost toexport, US$
per container
2009 2014 2009 2014 2009 2014 2009 2014 2009 2014 2009 2014 2009 2014
Cambodia 2.2 2.7 30 24 11 9 872 930 22 22 11 8 732 795
Indonesia 2.7 2.9 27 23 6 8 660 660 21 17 5 4 704 615
Malaysia 3.4 3.4 14 8 7 4 450 485 18 11 7 4 450 450
Philippines 2.6 3.0 16 14 8 7 819 660 16 15 8 6 816 585
Singapore 3.9 4.0 3 4 4 3 439 440 5 6 4 3 456 460
Thailand 3.0 3.2 13 13 3 5 795 760 14 21 4 5 625 595
Vietnam 2.9 2.8 23 21 8 8 901 600 24 21 6 5 734 610
Significant improvements
Slight improvements
Slight worsening
worsening
*Data for Brunei, Laos and Myanmar were not available
Table based on data compiled from World Economic Forum: The Global Enabling
Report 2009 and 2014
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Concluding Diagnostics
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Is the Institutional Setting the Problem?