The Case of the Curious Correlations
Is this what you would expect?
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2012)Daily)Peak)Electric)Demand)(ERCOT#North#Central,#MW)#
The miracle of air conditioning
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2012)Daily)Peak)Electric)Demand)(ERCOT#North#Central,#MW)# Higher temperatures lead
to higher HVAC load
Lower temperatures lead to lower HVAC load
But what about this ?
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Why would electric demand start to rise again as the temperature continues to fall ?
And why the weaker correlation ?
Electric heating ? Probably not too much – this is Texas.
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2012)Daily)Peak)Electric)Demand)(ERCOT#North#Central,#MW)# R²#=#0.32024#
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5,000#
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20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
Q1?2012)#
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Q2?2012)#
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Q3?2012#
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Q4?2012#
Digging into the data
The tight, positively correlated data is concentrated in Q2 and Q3
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2012)Daily)Peak)Electric)Demand)(ERCOT#North#Central,#MW)# R²#=#0.32024#
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Q1?2012)#
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Digging into the data
The weaker, negatively correlated data is concentrated in Q1 and Q4
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2012)Daily)Peak)Electric)Demand)(ERCOT#North#Central,#MW)#
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December#
Digging deeper into the data
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2012)Daily)Peak)Electric)Demand)(ERCOT#North#Central,#MW)#
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December#
Digging deeper into the data
April looks odd, compared to March and May. Investigate further by looking at 2011 and 2013 data.
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December#
Digging deeper into the data
Temperature is dominant driver of electric load in some months . . .
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Digging deeper into the data
But understanding what drives loads in other months requires more sophisticated models . . .
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November#
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December#
Digging deeper into the data
July correlation significantly weaker than other summer months. Could it be due to Independence day falling on a Wednesday in 2012 ?
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